RBA Chart Pack (8 May 2013)

The Australian Economy and Financial Markets
Chart Pack May 2013
The Australian Economy and Financial Markets

Contents
Graphs
World Economy Australian GDP Growth and Inflation Household Sector Business Sector Credit and Money Factors of Production and Labour Market Regions and Industry Government Commodity Prices Balance of Payments and External Position Interest Rates Share Markets Bond Issuance Equity Raisings and Business Financing Exchange Rates Banking Indicators 13 4 56 78 9 1011 1213 14 15 1617 1822 2324 25 26 2728 2930
World Economy
GDP Growth World
% 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Year-ended Major trading partners* % 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 0 0 5 India 5 10 % China
GDP Growth China and India

Year-ended %
World**
10
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
* Weighted using Australian export shares ** PPP-weighted; accounts for 87 per cent of world GDP Sources: ABS; CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Sources: CEIC; RBA
GDP Growth Advanced Economies

Year-ended % 4 US Euro area % 4 % 10
GDP Growth East Asia

Year-ended % 10 ASEAN-4*
0 Japan -4
-4
0 Higher-income Asian economies**
-8
-8
-5
-5
-12
2001
Source: Thomson Reuters
2004
2007
2010
2013
-12
-10
2000
* Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted ** Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weighted Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA
2003
2006
2009
2012
-10
Chart Pack | May 2013
World Economy
Core Inflation* Advanced Economies
% 2 Euro area Year-ended US** % 2 %
Inflation China and India

Year-ended India** 8 8 %
1 4 4
Japan
0 0 0
-1
-1
China*
-2
2001
*
Excluding food and energy, and for the euro area also excluding alcohol and tobacco ** Core price index for personal consumption expenditures Source: Thomson Reuters
2004
2007
2010
2013
-2
-4
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
-4
* Consumer price index ** Wholesale price index Sources: CEIC; RBA
Unemployment Rate Advanced Economies

% Euro area 10 10 8 % %
Inflation East Asia

Year-ended % ASEAN-4* 8
US
4 6 Japan 0 Higher-income Asian economies**
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
-4
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
-4
* Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand; PPP-weighted ** Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan; PPP-weighted Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
World Economy
China Monthly Activity Indicators*
Nominal growth % 3 0 Retail sales % 3 0 130 Index
China Residential Property Market*

2006 average = 100
Prices
Floor space sold
M(m ) 95
120
80
% 3 0 -3
Fixed asset investment
% 3
110
65
100 0 -3 90 2009
* RBA estimates Sources: CEIC; RBA
50
2007
2009
2011
2013
2013
2009
2013
35
* RBA estimates prior to February 2011 Sources: CEIC; RBA
China Credit and Money Supply Growth

% Year-ended % Index
China Output Indicators

Log scale; 2005 average = 100 Index
Credit 30 30 200
Industrial production
Crude steel 200
20
20
100
Rail freight Electricity consumption
100
M2 money supply 10 2007

Source: CEIC
2009
2011
2013
10
50
2005
2009
2013
2005
2009
50 2013
Sources: CEIC; RBA
Australian GDP Growth and Inflation

GDP Growth
% Year-ended % % 5 4 4 Year-ended 4 3 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 -2 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 -2 -1 1993
*
Consumer Price Inflation*

% 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2013
Quarterly
Quarterly (seasonally adjusted) 1997 2001 2005 2009

Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 and adjusted for the tax changes of 19992000 Sources: ABS; RBA
Source: ABS
Underlying Inflation*
% Weighted median 5 4 3 2 CPI excl volatile items 1 0 1993
*
Non-tradables and Tradables Inflation

% 5 % Non-tradables* Year-ended 4 4 3 2 0 1 0 2013 -2 Quarterly (seasonally adjusted) 2005 2009 2013 2005 2009 0 2 2 4 Tradables** %
Trimmed mean
Excluding interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998 and adjusted for the tax changes of 19992000 Sources: ABS; RBA
1997
2001
2005
2009
-2 2013
* Excluding deposit & loan facilities to June 2011 ** Excluding volatile items (fruit, vegetables & automotive fuel) and tobacco Sources: ABS; RBA
Household Sector
Retail Sales Growth
%
(year-ended*)
Household Saving Ratio*

% Per cent of household disposable income % 15 % 15
Values
4
(year-ended)
4 Volumes
10
10
% 0 -5
Volumes (quarterly)
% 0 -5
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
* Percentage change over year to latest three months Source: ABS
-5
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
-5
* Net of depreciation Source: ABS
Private Residential Building Approvals

Monthly 000 Total 15 15 120 000 Index
Consumer Sentiment
Average since 1980 = 100 Index
120
10 Detached houses 5 Higher-density housing 0 1993

Source: ABS
10
100
100
80
80
1998
2003
2008
0 2013
60
Source: Melbourne Institute and Westpac
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
60 2013
Household Sector
Household Finances*
% 150 125 100 75 50 25
*
Household Wealth and Liabilities*

% 14 12 10 300 8 6 4 2012 150 Liabilities 150 % 600 Dwellings 450 Financial assets 300 450 Per cent of annual household disposable income Net worth % 600
Per cent of household disposable income Debt Interest paid
1992
2002
2012 1992
2002
0
*
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Household sector excludes unincorporated enterprises; disposable income is after tax and before the deduction of interest payments Sources: ABS; RBA
Household liabilities exclude the liabilities of unincorporated enterprises; disposable income is after tax and before the deduction of interest payments Sources: ABS; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Dwelling Prices
$000 Sydney 600 Perth 500 Brisbane 400 Adelaide 300 Melbourne Regional* 2009
*
Housing Loan Approvals

$000 Canberra 600 $b 20 Total $b 20
Australia
500
15 Non-first home buyer owner-occupiers
15
400
10
10
300
5 Investors 0 First home buyers 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Sources: ABS; RBA
200
2013
2009
2013
200
Excluding apartments; measured as areas outside of capital cities in mainland states Sources: RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Business Sector
Private Non-financial Corporation Profits*
Share of nominal GDP % Non-mining 12 12 %
ppt
NAB Business Survey

Business conditions* ppt
15 0 -15 -30
15 0 -15 -30
Business confidence* ppt
8 Mining 4
ppt
15 4 0 -15
15 0 -15 -30
Capacity utilisation %
* Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjusted Sources: ABS; RBA
2000
2004
2008
2012
-30
%
84 81 % 78 75 18 72
1993 1998 2003 2008
84 81 78 75
2013
Business Finances
%
Per cent of nominal GDP
Business credit
Per cent of profits**
Interest paid*
60
72
* Net balance; deviation from average since 1989 Sources: NAB; RBA
50
15
40
12
30 1997
*
Interest on intermediated debt from Australian-domiciled financial institutions ** Profits are private non-financial gross operating surplus (adjusted for privatisations) and gross mixed income Sources: ABS; RBA
2002
2007
2012
2002
2007
2012
Business Sector
Business Investment*
% 18 Share of nominal GDP % 18
Capital Expenditure Mining and Non-mining*

$b 128 64 Nominal, financial year, log scale Mining Non-mining $b 128 64 32 16 8 4 1993 2003 2013 1993 2003 2 2013
16
16
32 16 8
14
14
12
12
4 2
*
10
*
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
10
Excludes second-hand asset transfers between the private and other sectors; no adjustments have been made for privatisations Source: ABS
Sample of firms spending plans; dots represent the surveys most recent estimates for 2012/13 adjusted for historical realised spending Sources: ABS; RBA
Business Investment Components*

Share of nominal GDP % 8 Machinery and equipment % 8
Private Non-residential Building Approvals

Per cent of nominal GDP % %
6 2 2
Buildings
4 1 1
2 Engineering 0
*
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
0 1988
Excludes second-hand asset transfers between the private and other sectors; no adjustments have been made for privatisations Source: ABS
Source: ABS
1993
1998
2003
2008
0 2013
Credit and Money

Credit and Broad Money Growth
% Year-ended % Ratio
Credit*
Ratio to nominal GDP Ratio
15
15
1.4
1.4
10 Broad money 5 Credit 0 1997

Source: RBA
10
1.1
1.1
0.8
0.8
2001
2005
2009
0 2013
0.5
1993
1998
2003
2008
0.5 2013
* Not adjusted for breaks Sources: ABS; RBA
Monetary Aggregates Growth

% Year-ended M3 18 18 20 Personal % %
Credit Growth by Sector

Year-ended Housing 20 %
12
12
10 Business
10
6 Currency 0 1997
Source: RBA
2001
2005
2009
0 2013
-10
1997
Source: RBA
2001
2005
2009
2013
-10
Factors of Production and Labour Market

Labour Productivity
Year-ended change % 8 4 0 -4 % 4 0 -4 -8 1982
Source: ABS
Factors of Production
% % 5 3 Annual growth Capital stock* % 5 3 8 4 0
Output
Total hours worked
-4 % 4 0 % 2.0 1.5 1.0 Working-age population % 2.0 1.5 1.0 11/12
Output per hour worked
-4 2007 2012 -8
1987
1992
1997
2002
81/82
87/88
93/94
99/00
05/06
* Excluding livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs Sources: ABS; RBA
Growth in Labour Input

% 4 Year-ended, trend Total hours worked % 4 Index 180
Capital Ratios*
1979/80 = 100 Index 180 Capital-labour ratio 160 160 140 120 100 Capital-output ratio 80 11/12
2 Employment 0
2 140 0 120 100 80

*
-2
-2
-4 1993
Source: ABS
1997
2001
2005
2009
-4 2013
81/82
86/87
91/92
96/97
01/02
06/07
Capital stock excludes livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs Sources: ABS; RBA
10
Factors of Production and Labour Market

Unemployment and Participation Rates
% 11 % 66 Participation rate
(RHS)
Full-time and Part-time Employment

M 8.0 7.5 65 7.0 Full-time
(LHS)
M 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Part-time

(RHS)
64
6.5 6.0 5.5 1993

Source: ABS
5 Unemployment rate
(LHS)
63
2.0 1.5 2013
3 1993
Source: ABS
1997
2001
2005
2009
62 2013
1997
2001
2005
2009
Wage Price Index Growth

% 5 4 3 2 Quarterly 1 0 1 0 Private sector Public sector % 5 4 3 2 1.0 2.0 %
Job Vacancies and Advertisements

Per cent of labour force Advertisements
(ANZ survey)
Year-ended
2.0
1.5
(ABS survey)
1.5 Vacancies*
1.0
2002
Source: ABS
2007
2012
2002
2007
2012
0.5
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
0.5
* This survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009 Sources: ABS; ANZ
11
Regions and Industry

State Share of Output*
% 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 91/92 95/96 99/00 Tasmania 03/04 07/08 Queensland Western Australia South Australia Victoria New South Wales % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 11/12
% 10 5 0 -5 % 15 10 5 0 -5 % 15 South Australia Tasmania* Queensland New South Wales
State Final Demand Growth

Year-ended % Victoria 10 5 0 -5 % 15 10 5 0 -5 % 15 10 5 0 -5 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 -10
Western Australia
* Nominal Source: ABS
State Unemployment Rates

% 7 6 5 Victoria 4 3 2 Queensland Western Australia 2005 2009 2013 2009 2013 2 4 3 Trend Tasmania New South Wales South Australia 7 6 5 %
10 5 0 -5 -10
* Adjusted for the purchase and sale of ferries in 2002 Sources: ABS; RBA
Source: ABS
12
Regions and Industry

Industry Share of Output*
% 14 12 10 8 6 Mining 4 2 Agriculture 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 4 Retail and wholesale trade Financial and insurance services Construction Manufacturing Other business services** % 14 12 10 8 6 10 30 % 40 Financial and insurance services Manufacturing Retail and wholesale trade Mining 30
Industry Share of Business Investment*

% 40
Other business services**
20 Agriculture Construction 0
20
10
* Nominal gross value added ** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring and real estate services; professional scientific and technical services; administrative and support services Source: ABS
2 11/12
* Nominal ** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring and real estate services; professional scientific and technical services; administrative and support services Source: ABS
91/92
95/96
99/00
03/04
07/08
0 11/12
Employment by Industry*
Index 350 Mining (2.3%) 300 250 Other business services** (14.9%) Construction (8.8%) 300 250 200 150 100 2000 average = 100 Index 350
Contributions to Employment Growth

Year to February 2013, trend Transport, postal & warehousing Education & training Accommodation & food services Wholesale trade Health care & social assistance Professional, scientific & technical Retail trade Construction Mining Information & telecommunications Administrative & support Manufacturing Arts & recreation Other services Financial & insurance Utilities Rental, hiring & real estate Public administration & safety Agriculture, forestry & fishing -60 -40 -20 0 20 000
Source: ABS
Financial and 200 insurance services (3.5%) 150 100 50 Manufacturing (8.1%)
*
Retail and wholesale trade (14.5%) 2003 2008
Figures in parentheses represent share of total employment based on latest quarterly data ** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative and support services Source: ABS
1998
2003
2008
2013
50 2013
40
60
13
Government
Australian Government Budget Balance*
% 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 85/86 91/92 97/98 03/04 09/10 Per cent of nominal GDP % 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 15/16 -0.8 -1.2 81/82 -0.8 -1.2 11/12 0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 % 0.8
State Budget Balances*

Per cent of nominal GDP % 0.8
* Underlying cash balance Source: Australian Treasury
* Underlying cash balance Source: ABS
86/87
91/92
96/97
01/02
06/07
Public Construction Work Done

Per cent of nominal GDP % Total 3 Engineering 2 2 10 1 Building 0 1992
Source: ABS
Non-financial Public Sector Net Debt*

% Per cent of nominal GDP % Non-financial public sector 3 30 30 %
20
Australian Government
20
10
1 0 State and local general governments 2000 2004 2008 2012 0 -10 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 -10 11/12 0
1996
* Estimates as at the 2012/13 MYEFO Source: Australian Treasury
14
Commodity Prices
RBA Index of Commodity Prices
SDR, 2011/12 average = 100 Index 100 Index 100 Index 220 190 80 80 160 60 60 130 100 70
l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l
Base Metals, Rural and Oil Prices

Weekly US$/b Base metals* Rural* Brent oil 150 125 100 75 50
I 25 2013
40
40
20
Source: RBA
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
20 2013
2005
*
2009
2013
2009
RBA Index of Commodity Prices sub-indices; SDR terms; 2005 average = 100 Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Bulk Commodity Prices

US$/t Free on board basis Iron ore
(LHS)
Terms of Trade*
US$/t Index 100 2010/11 average = 100 Index 100
(RHS)
Thermal coal
(LHS)
Coking coal
170 Spot price* 130
350
80 250 60
80
60
90 Average Australian export price 50

l
150
40
40
2011
2013
2011
2013
2011
2013
50
20
1952
1967
1982
1997
20 2012
* Iron ore fines, Newcastle thermal coal and premium hard coking coal Sources: ABS; Bloomberg; Citigroup; Energy Publishing; globalCOAL; Macquarie Bank; RBA
* Annual data are used prior to 1960 Sources: ABS; RBA
15
Balance of Payments and External Position

Export Volumes
Quarterly, 2010/11 prices, log scale $b $b Mt 130 12 Rural 20 6 110 90 70 50 3 30 2002 Iron ore
Bulk Commodity Exports

Quarterly Coal Mt 90 80 70 60 50 40
Resources 40
Services
Manufacturing 10 2000
Source: ABS
2006
2012
2000
2006
2012
2007
2012
2007
2012
Sources: ABS; RBA
Import Volumes
Quarterly, 2010/11 prices, log scale $b Consumption Intermediate $b % 20
Exports by Destination
Annual, share of total values China Japan % 20
16
16
15 8 Capital 4 Services 4 8 10 South Korea 5 India 2 2000 2006 2012 2000 2006 2012 2 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 EU - 27 US
15
10
Source: ABS
Source: ABS
16
Balance of Payments and External Position

Current Account Balance
Per cent of nominal GDP % Trade balance 0 Net income balance % % 8 0 Debt 6 4 2 -6 Current account balance -9 1993
Source: ABS
Net Capital Inflow

Per cent of nominal GDP % 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2000
Source: ABS
* qua Sou
-3
-3
-6
0 -2
Equity
1998
2003
2008
-9 2013
-4
2003
2006
2009
2012
-4
Net Foreign Liabilities

% 60 Per cent of nominal GDP % 60
Composition after hedging, quarterly* $b 2 000 Gross foreign liabilities Gross foreign assets $b 2 000
External Position
Total
45 Debt 30 Equity
45
1 500
n Foreign currency n Australian dollar
1 500
30
1 000 500
1 000 500
15
15
Source: ABS
1993
1998
2003
2008
0 2013
2004
2008
2012
2004
2008
l 0 2012
* Hedge ratios inferred from the Foreign Currency Exposure survey Sources: ABS; RBA
17
Interest Rates
Australian Cash Rate and 90-day Bill Yield
% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
l
Policy Interest Rates G3

% 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
*
% 90-day bill yield 8 7 6 Cash rate 5 4 3 2005

l l
% US 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
Euro area Japan*
2007
2009
2011
2013
Sources: AFMAData; RBA
Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base Source: central banks
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Australian Cash Rate

% 9 Cash rate 6 6 6 3 Real cash rate* 0 0 2 -3 1993 1998 2003 2008 -3 2013 3 4 % % 9 8
Policy Interest Rates Selected Advanced Economies

% NZ 8
6 UK 4 Canada Sweden 2005 2 Switzerland 2007 2009 2011 2013 0
* Calculated using average of weighted median and trimmed mean inflation Sources: ABS; RBA
Source: central banks
18
Interest Rates
Policy Interest Rates Asia
% 15 Indonesia 12 9 6 China* 3 0 India Malaysia 4 3 2 1 0 2013 Thailand South Korea % 5
10-year Australian Government Bond Yield

% 7 6 5 4 3 2 % 7 6 5 4 3 2
Taiwan
* 1-year lending rate Source: central banks
2005
2009
2013 2005
2009
2001
Source: RBA
2004
2007
2010
2013
Policy Interest Rates Emerging Markets

% 20 Brazil South Africa 15 Russia 10 Mexico Poland 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0 10 15 % 20 % 6 5 4 3 2 5 1 0
10-year Government Bond Yields

% 6 US 5 4 Germany 3 2 Japan 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 1 0
Source: central banks
19
Interest Rates
Spread between Australian 10-year Bond Yield and the Cash Rate
% 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 % 4 9 2 0 -2 3 -4 -6 2013 0 1997 US government Swap 0 2013 3 6 AAA corporates* 6
US Bond Yields
35 years % BBB corporates* 9 %
1993
Source: RBA
1997
2001
2005
2009
* Includes financials and non-financials Sources: Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Bloomberg
2001
2005
2009
Bps 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100
Differential between Australian and US 10-year Government Bond Yields
US Bond Spreads
Bps 500 400 300 200 100
200 600 AAA corporates* 400 Swap 400 Bps 800 A corporates* 600 To US government bonds, 35 years BBB corporates* 800 Bps
200
0
l l
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
l -100 2013
0 1997
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
* Includes financials and non-financials Sources: Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Bloomberg
2001
2005
2009
0 2013
20
Interest Rates
Emerging Market Bond Yields
% Europe 20 16 12 8 4 0 Asia Latin America 16 12 8 20 %
Australian Bond Yields*

BBB corporates AA corporates
6 Swap 4
4 Australian Government
4 0 2013
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters
1997
2001
2005
2009
2
*
Australian Government yields and swap rates are for 3-year maturity. Corporate bond yields are a weighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5 years; they include financial and nonfinancial corporates. Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
2001
2005
2009
l 2 2013
Emerging Market Bond Spreads

Bps 1 500 1 200 900 600 300 Asia 0 1997 2001 2005 2009 To US government bonds, duration matched Europe 1 500 1 200 900 600 300 0 2013
500 400 300 200 100 0
*
l l
Australian Bond Spreads*

Bps
Bps Spread over government yields BBB corporates Bps 500 400 AA corporates 300 200 100
l l 0 2013
Latin America
A corporates Swap
l l l l l l l l l l l
Swap spreads are for 3-year maturity. Corporate bond spreads are a weighted average of senior bonds with remaining maturities of 1 to 5 years; they include financial and non-financial corporates. Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; UBS AG, Australia Branch
2001
2005
2009
21
Interest Rates
Australian Housing Lending Rates
Average interest rate on variable-rate loans % Banks indicator rate on new loans 10 Actual rate on outstanding loans 8 8 8 6 Cash rate 6 6 Swap rate 4 2 1993 4 2 2013 8 6 10 % % 12 Small business 10 Housing 10
Australian Fixed Interest Rates

3-year maturity % 12
2 1993
1998
2003
2008
2 2013
1998
2003
2008
Sources: ABS; APRA; Perpetual; RBA
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Australian Small Business Interest Rates

% 12 10 8 6 4 2 1993 Cash rate Term loan residential security* 1997 2001 2005 2009 Weighted-average outstanding variable rate** Overdraft other security* % % 12 10 8 6 4 2 2013 10 8 6 % 8 6 4 2
Australian Business Lending Rates

Average interest rate on outstanding lending Small business % 10 8 6 Large business % 8 6 4 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2
* Indicator rates ** Including risk margins Sources: APRA; RBA
Sources: APRA; RBA
22
Share Markets
Australian and World Share Price Indices
Index 350 300 250 200 150 MSCI World 100 80 ASX 200 100 2001 2005 2009 80 2013 40 1997 Japan 2001 2005 2009 2013 40 Log scale, end December 1994 = 100 S&P 500 Index 350 300 250 200 150 100 Index 300 200 UK 100
Major Economies Share Price Indices

Log scale, end December 1994 = 100 Euro area US Index 300 200
1997
Source: Bloomberg
Australian Share Price Indices

Index 600 500 400 300 200 All other sectors 100 100 Financials Log scale, end December 1994 = 100 Resources Index 600 500 400 300 200 200 100 Index 1 500 1 000 500
Share Price Indices

Log scale, end December 1994 = 100 Emerging Europe Latin America 500 China 200 World Emerging Asia 100 Index 1 500 1 000
60
1997
2001
2005
2009
60 2013
40
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI
1997
2001
2005
2009
40 2013
23
Share Markets
Trailing P/E Ratios
Ratio MSCI World excluding Australia 30 30 6 Ratio % MSCI Australia 6
Dividend Yields
%
20 MSCI Australia 10
20
10
2 MSCI World excluding Australia
1989
1995
2001
2007
0 2013
1989
1995
2001
2007
0 2013
Forward P/E Ratios

Ratio MSCI World 20 20 90 Ratio Index
Forecast Earnings per Share

MSCI Australia Index 09/10 08/09 11/12 07/08 12/13 13/14 70 06/07 10/11 05/06 70
90
10
MSCI Australia
10
1989
1995
2001
2007
0 2013
50
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
50
24
Bond Issuance
Bonds on Issue in Australia
$b Non-government** 400 400 $b
Non-government Bonds on Issue in Australia

$b Financials 150 Asset-backed securities* 100 100 Non-financial corporates 150 $b
300
300
200 Australian Government* State governments 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
200
100
100
50
50
0 2013
Non-residents 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

* Excludes ADIs self-securitisations Sources: ABS; RBA
0 2013
* Excludes bonds purchased by the Australian Government ** Excludes ADIs self-securitisations, includes government-guaranteed bonds Sources: ABS; RBA
Non-government Bond Issuance

$b 40 20 $b 60 40 20 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
n Domestic issuers* n Non-resident issuers**
Non-government Bonds on Issue Offshore

$b 40 300 20 $b 60 40 20 0 0 1993 Non-residents* 1997 2001 2005 2009 0 2013 100 Asset-backed securities 200 Non-financial corporates 100 200 $b All currency denominations Financials 300 $b
Gross issuance Australia
Offshore
* Excludes ADIs self-securitisations ** Offshore non-resident issuance includes Australian dollar-denominated bonds only Source: RBA
* Australian dollar-denominated bonds only Sources: ABS; RBA
25
Equity Raisings and Business Financing

Australian Equity Raisings*
$b 8 4 $b 28 21 14 7 $b 0 -5 -10 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Buybacks Other raisings IPOs $b 8 4 $b 28 21 14 7 $b 0 -5 -10 -25 2003 2008 2013 2003 2008 -25 2013 0 0 25 25 50 $b
Net Non-intermediated Capital Raisings*

Non-financial corporates Financials and assetbacked securities** $b
50
* All listed companies Sources: ASX; RBA
* Includes equity, hybrids, bonds, and short term-debt ** Excludes ADIs self-securitisations; financials include banks and nonbank financials Sources: APRA; ASX; Austraclear; RBA
Australian Net Equity Raisings*

$b 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 n Financials** n Non-financial corporates $b 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5
Business External Funding

Net change as a share of GDP % n Equity Total n Business credit n Non-intermediated debt 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 % 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2013
* All listed companies ** Includes banks and non-bank financials Sources: ASX; RBA
1993
1998
2003
2008
Sources: ABS; APRA; ASX; RBA
26
Exchange Rates
Australian Dollar TWI*
Index 80 Real 70 70 Index 80 A$b 80 60 40 60 Nominal 60 20 50 50 A$b 40 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 40 2013 4 2 0 -2 A$b 4 2 US$, Euro 1.00 US$ per A$
(RHS)
Official Reserve Assets

A$b 80 60 40 Net* 20 A$b 4 2 0 -2 A$b RBA foreign exchange market intervention transactions*** 4 2 0 -2
* Excludes foreign exchange swaps ** Includes market, government and other outright transactions, excludes swap deliveries *** Data up to 29 June 2012; a positive value indicates a purchase of foreign exchange, while a negative value indicates a sale of foreign exchange Source: RBA
Gross
RBA net purchases of foreign exchange**
* May 1970 = 100 for nominal; real indexed to equate post-float averages Sources: ABS; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Australian Dollar against US Dollar, Euro and Yen

Yen Euro per A$*
(RHS)
0 -2 -4 1997 2001 2005 2009
200
-4 2013
150
0.80
100 Yen per A$

(LHS)
0.60
50
* ECU per A$ until 31 December 1998 Sources: Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
0.40 2013
27
Exchange Rates
US Dollar against Euro and Yen
Yen 250 210 170 Yen per US$ 130 90 50
(LHS) (RHS, inverted scale)
Selected Asian Currencies against the US Dollar

US$ 0.90 1.30 Index 140 120 100 80 60 40 Malaysia India South Korea Thailand 1 January 2000 = 100 Singapore Index 140 120 100 80 60 40
US$ per euro*
1.70 2.10 2.50 2.90 2013
Indonesia 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
* US$ per ECU until 31 December 1998 Sources: Bloomberg; Eurostat
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Source: Bloomberg
Nominal TWI
March quarter 1999 = 100 Index Yen Index Index 110 120 100 90 80 80 Euro US dollar 60 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 60 60 80 70
Chinese Renminbi
Yuan Nominal effective exchange rate
(LHS, 2010 average = 100)
6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0
120
100
100
(RHS, inverted scale)
Yuan per US$
Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; RBA
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Sources: Bank of Japan; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; European Central Bank
28
Banking Indicators
Bank Profits
Profits after tax $b 12 6 $b 0.4 0.0 $b 1.6 0.0 -1.6
na na
Bank Profitability*
$b 12 6 $b 0.4 0.0 $b 1.6 0.0 -1.6 % % 20 10 0 % 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
*
Bad and doubtful debt charge Major banks*
Institutions operating in Australia Return on shareholders equity

Post-tax and minority interests
Major banks*
% 20 10
Regional banks Major banks Charge for bad and doubtful debts
Per cent of average assets
0 % 1.5 1.0
Regional banks**
Regional banks**
Major banks
Regional banks 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
0.5 0.0 2012
Foreign-owned banks***
Foreign-owned banks***
From 2006 data are on an IFRS basis; prior years are on an AGAAP basis; includes St. George and, from 2009, Bankwest Sources: RBA; banks annual and interim reports
Major Banks Net Interest Margin*

Domestic, half-yearly %
2007 2010 2013 n Actual n Analysts forecasts

*
2007 2013 2010 n Actual n Analysts forecasts
ANZ, NAB and Westpac report half yearly to March and September, while CBA reports to June and December ** Suncorp Bank, and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank report half yearly to June and December, while Bank of Queensland reports to February and August *** All results are half year to June and December Sources: APRA; Credit Suisse; Deutsche Bank; Nomura Equity Research; RBA; UBS Securities Australia; banks annual and interim reports
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
*
From 2006 data are on an IFRS basis; prior years are on AGAAP basis; excludes St George Bank and Bankwest prior to the first half of 2009 Sources: RBA; banks financial reports
2001
2005
2009
2013
1.5
29
Banking Indicators
Banks Non-performing Assets
Consolidated global operations, share of on-balance sheet assets % % Total* % 5 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 Impaired 0 0 2 1 Total*
* Includes assets 90+ days past due that are well secured Source: APRA
Banks Non-performing Assets

Domestic books, share of loans by type % 5 4 3 2 Personal Housing 2006 2008 2010 2012 1 0
Business and other*
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
* Includes lending to financial businesses, bills and debt securities Source: APRA
2004
Capital Ratios*
Consolidated global operations % Locally incorporated banks Other ADIs Credit unions 15 Total 10 10 15 40 30 20 5 Tier 2 5 10 0 2012 0 % % 50
Bank Funding*
Share of total, all banks % 50 Domestic deposits 40 Short-term debt** 30 20 Long-term debt Securitisation
* Adjusted for movements in foreign exchange rates ** Includes deposits and intragroup funding from non-residents Sources: APRA; RBA; Standard & Poors
Tier 1
Building societies
Equity
10 0
0
*
Per cent of risk-weighted assets; break in March 2008 due to the introduction of Basel II for most ADIs Source: APRA
1991
1998
2005
2012
1998
2005
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
30

RBA Chart Pack (8 May 2013)

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The Australian Economy and Financial Markets

Chart Pack May 2013

The Australian Economy and Financial Markets

GDP Growth China and India

Sources: CEIC; RBA

GDP Growth Advanced Economies

GDP Growth East Asia

0 Higher-income Asian economies**

Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart Pack | May 2013

Inflation China and India

* Consumer price index ** Wholesale price index Sources: CEIC; RBA

Unemployment Rate Advanced Economies

Inflation East Asia

4 6 Japan 0 Higher-income Asian economies**

Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart Pack | May 2013

China Residential Property Market*

Floor space sold

Fixed asset investment

* RBA estimates prior to February 2011 Sources: CEIC; RBA

China Credit and Money Supply Growth

China Output Indicators

Crude steel 200

Rail freight Electricity consumption

M2 money supply 10 2007

Sources: CEIC; RBA

Chart Pack | May 2013

Australian GDP Growth and Inflation

Consumer Price Inflation*

Quarterly (seasonally adjusted) 1997 2001 2005 2009

Non-tradables and Tradables Inflation

Chart Pack | May 2013

Household Saving Ratio*

* Percentage change over year to latest three months Source: ABS

* Net of depreciation Source: ABS

Private Residential Building Approvals

10 Detached houses 5 Higher-density housing 0 1993

Source: Melbourne Institute and Westpac

Chart Pack | May 2013

Household Wealth and Liabilities*

Per cent of household disposable income Debt Interest paid

Housing Loan Approvals

15 Non-first home buyer owner-occupiers

Chart Pack | May 2013

NAB Business Survey

* Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjusted Sources: ABS; RBA

Per cent of profits**

Chart Pack | May 2013

Capital Expenditure Mining and Non-mining*

Business Investment Components*

Private Non-residential Building Approvals

Chart Pack | May 2013

Credit and Money

10 Broad money 5 Credit 0 1997

* Not adjusted for breaks Sources: ABS; RBA

Monetary Aggregates Growth

Credit Growth by Sector

Chart Pack | May 2013

Factors of Production and Labour Market

Total hours worked

-4 % 4 0 % 2.0 1.5 1.0 Working-age population % 2.0 1.5 1.0 11/12

Output per hour worked