THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD,

AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS:

REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL
OF THE NEXT GENERATION
INTERNET

Michael R. Nelson
Visiting Professor,
Professor Internet Studies
Communication, Culture and Technology Program
Georgetown University
MNELSON@POBOX.COM

•1

My Background

ƒ B.S., g
geology,
gy Caltech
ƒ Ph.D., geophysics, MIT
ƒ 1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow
ƒ 4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor
ƒ 4 years as IT policy wonk at White House
ƒ 1998-1999
1998 1999 -- Technologist
T h l i t att FCC
ƒ 9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech.
ƒ Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008

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 50 Things I learned in Washington

LESSON #1

ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker

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50 Things I learned in Washington

LESSON #3

To make a point, you need two good,

memorable “factoids”

(preferably true)

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 50 Things I learned in Washington

LESSON #5

State your conclusions upfront

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Conclusions

ƒ We are entering the third phase of the Internet

à As profound as the World Wide Web
à The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet
ƒ Standards and business practices are shaping the Net
as much—or more—than law and regulation
ƒ The Internet revolution is less than 15% complete
à Number of users
à Total bandwidth
à Total amount of content
à Number of devices
à Number of applications

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 50 Things I learned in Washington

LESSON #8

Always look beyond the headlines

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HEADLINE #1 – Cloud Computing

THE HEADLINES
Google building huge data centers and
offering Google Apps
Web 2.0 buzz
Flickr, YouTube, MySpace
y
SalesForce.com

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 HEADLINE #1 – Cloud Computing

THE HEADLINE
Google building huge data centers and offering
Google Apps
Web 2.0 buzz
Flickr, YouTube, MySpace
SalesForce.com

THE REAL NEWS

We’re entering the 3rd phase of computing
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The Vision

ƒ From Eric Schmidt,, the CEO of Google:

g
“We’re moving into the era of ‘cloud’ computing,
with information and applications hosted in the
diffuse atmosphere of cyberspace rather than
on specific processors and silicon racks. The
network will truly be the computer.”
(“D ’t B
(“Don’t Bett Against
A i t theth Internet,”
I t t ” Economist,
E i t
2007)

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Phase One – Stand Alone Computer

App. Data

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 Phase Two – The Web

Web sites
Data
Data
Data
Data

Browser
PC
App. Data

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Phase Three – The Cloud

Data
Data
Data App.
App.
App.
Data

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 “The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr

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Many Flavors of Distributed Computing

1M The Holy Grid

Peer-to-peer
Peer to peer Everything
E thi integrated
i t t d
(PC-based) with everything
Napster KaZaa
SETI@home

Number
of nodes
Grid Computing
(Server-based)
10 National Grids TeraGrid

1 100
Power per node

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 This is a VERY big deal

Gartner Says
y Cloud Computing
p g Will Be
As Influential As E-business

Special Report Examines the Realities

and Risks of Cloud Computing (June 26,
2008)

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Akamai – Visualizing the Internet

http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/visualizing_akamai.html

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 PC-based Grids
ƒ SETI @Home
ƒ Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing
à >340,000 volunteers
à >585,838 computers
à 24-hour average: 1,190.46 TeraFLOPS
ƒ Fight AIDS @ Home
ƒ Dozens of other projects
à http://www.distributedcomputing.info/projects.html

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TREND #2 – Internet of Things

Whyy it matters:
100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs

Impacts?
q
Increased demand for ubiquitous wireless
New uses for the Cloud

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The Cloud + The Internet of Things

Data
Data
Data App.
App.
App.
Data

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HEADLINE #3 – Internet Video

THE HEADLINE
Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows
(including “Desperate Housewives” on
the Internet
Apple puts movies online

THE OTHER NEWS

Amateur and illegal video everywhere!
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VIDEO EVERYWHERE

ƒ TV shows, YouTube clips, animations, and other

video applications already account for more than 60
percent of Internet traffic (CacheLogic)
ƒ 80% of all traffic in some countries is video
ƒ 98% of all traffic by 2009 (Hui Zhang, CMU)
ƒ Amateur video
à 100 million downloads/day on YouTube
à Star Trek fan videos
à Gaming videos
à Webcams everywhere

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Estimating the Exaflood

(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)

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 What’s in the Exaflood?

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HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration

THE HEADLINE

High-end video-conferencing (WebEx)

Cisco Telepresence

THE REAL NEWS

The Gaming Revolution + Virtual Worlds
Producing GDP equivalent to Belgium's
May 1 2006 Business Week cover story
Internet isn’t just a medium, it’s a PLACE

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Early Virtual Worlds Business Applications

Commerce Collaboration
and Events

Education
Other
and Training
Emerging
Applications

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BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1

Within 5 years, 80% of all computing

and storage done worldwide will
happen “in the cloud”

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Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #1

No, it won’t.
won t.

BUT, within 10 years, 80% of all

computing and storage done
worldwide will happen “in
in the
cloud”

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BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2

Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices

and sensors will be connected to
the Net

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Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2

Within 10 years, 100 BILLION

devices and sensors will be
connected to the Net

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Why Not?
ƒ Technical
à Agreement
g and adoption
p of key
y standards
‚ IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards
ƒ Business practices
à Cooperation around open standards vs.
proprietary lock-in
ƒ Culture
à Users have to learn to “trust the cloud”
à CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new
roles
ƒ Policy
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 Policy – The rate-limiting step

•Policy •Organizations •People •Software •Hardware

GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGE

ƒ How to be an early adopter of new technologies

? (such as Virtual Worlds, Grid)
ƒ To do list:
à Move to open standards
à Explore open source software
à Address security
à Fix procurement
à Change culture and reorganize

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 Critical technology choices
ƒ Authentication and directories
ƒ Open Document Format
ƒ Privacy-enhancing
y g technologies
g ((P3P))
ƒ Digital Rights Management
ƒ Filtering technologies to block spam, porn
ƒ Voice over IP
ƒ Wireless Internet standards
ƒ Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and Grid
computing
ƒ Instant messaging
ƒ IP 6 deployment
IPv6 d l t
ƒ Linking the phone network and the Internet
ƒ Rich media standards (SIP, multicast, etc.)
ƒ End-to-end vs. walled gardens

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Updating policies for the Cloud

ƒ Privacy
y
à Search warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud?
ƒ Transparency
ƒ International data flows
ƒ Online copyright
ƒ Liability for cloud service providers
à Who’s responsible for Illegal activities?
ƒ Competition policy

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Formula for Effective Cloud Policy

C + (OS1)(OS2) = I + (Ch1 )(Ch2)

C = Competition
OS1 = Open Standards
OS2 = Open Source
I = Innovation
Ch1 = Choice
Ch2 = Cheap

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Three Possible Futures

1. The Clouds Scenario

2. The Cloudy Skies Scenario
3. The Blue Skies Scenario

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The Clouds Scenario

ƒ Different, distinct,
proprietary clouds
ƒ Non-interoperable
standards
ƒ The cable television
network business
model; bottlenecks
and monopolies

The Cloudy Skies Scenario

ƒ Distinct clouds
ƒ Interconnected
ƒ Cloud applications
aren’t interoperable
ƒ Little common
middleware ((e.g.
g no
single sign-on)
ƒ Lots of missed
opportunities

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Blue Skies Scenario

ƒ A “cloud of clouds” like

the network of
networks
ƒ Truly interoperable
clouds services Sky’s the Limit!!
ƒ “Mix and match”
ƒ Common middleware
ƒ Open Cloud Manifesto
ƒ Almost infinite
opportunities

Conclusions
ƒ The Internet Revolution is less than
15% complete
ƒ Cloud computing could be even more
disruptive than the World Wide Web –
IF it’s as open and competitive as the
Web
ƒ When in doubt, empower the user!

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