The 2013 4D TIP Report

A vision of the opportunities and risks for telecoms operators in 2013 and beyond

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Executive Summary
Service shifting
Mobile operators will not be short of challenges in the year ahead. Industry observers often talk of the changing landscape of the industry; using the phrase simply to provide readily understood analogies about how things are going to look different; subscribers are going to expect better quality of service and experience, together with the reassurance of robust security. Services are going to evolve, technology will affect major changes yet again as it always does and the overall network environment will somehow assume a different appearance. As the network changes, operators will look to deploy technologies for both analytics and troubleshooting that enable them to deliver new services, improve performance and bring down costs. They will also be looking for greater opportunities to monetise the activity in the network, rather than seeing such opportunities continue to flow into the bottom line of the OTT player.
What is a Telecoms Intelligence Provider? A Telecoms Intelligence Provider (TIP) offers the technologyagnostic solutions and tools that create meaningful observations from actionable data end-to-end across networks, legacy and new generation technologies, services utilization and subscriber journeys; real-time data collection and analysis that enables operators to leverage monetisation opportunities from the wealth of data available to them - to deliver the experience and service their customers want. Locate. Learn. Lead: A TIP enables operators to locate the data, learn from its insights, and lead the market through optimised customer experience management.

There will be multiple transformations - the deployment of new technologies to unwrap, understand and unleash the insights of rich data streams.

Unwrap, understand, and unleash the insights

Within the context of momentous transformation, this is the year when the landscape really will change for mobile operators. It will change forever. Whats different is that operators will see major shifts in the way eco-system elements of the telecoms industry co-exist. Old enemies will become new friends, as operators adopt OTT practices and, occasionally, even acquire OTT companies. Practices will converge, as old allies consolidate their ties, rallying round GSMA RCS compliance to offer more seamless connectivity. At the same time, old friends might well become new enemies as competition increases and whereas some will converge, others will diverge. There will be multiple transformations - the deployment of new technologies to unwrap, understand and unleash the insights of rich data streams. The recent IDC report, The Digital Universe in 2020, suggests:

...the digital universe will grow by a factor of 300, from 130 exabytes to 40,000 exabytes, or 40 trillion gigabytes (more than 5,200 gigabytes for every man, woman, and child in 2020). From now until 2020, the digital universe will about double every two years
Operators will look to the emerging Telecoms Intelligence Providers (TIPs) of the new world order to help them leverage the unprecedented volumes of data flowing through their pipes to improve quality of service and security, to deliver customer experience in line with smart customer expectations, to increase their competitive proposition, to reduce both churn, and lower operating costs.

Telecoms in 4D
A Telecoms Intelligence Provider helps operators understand their entire environment and what goes on in it. Technology-agnostic solutions and tools are available that create meaningful observations from data across networks, legacy and new generation technologies, services utilisation and subscriber journeys. Winners in the new environment should expect to cover the four dimensions of the telecoms landscape: Subscriber behaviour, the Services and applications they consume, the Network environment itself, and the Technologies in play. These are the cornerstones of what we refer to as the entire environment. Real-time end-to-end data collection and analysis across each of these four dimensions can give operators the critical visibility they need, to deliver the experience and services their customers want, and create a more level playing field between themselves and the OTT players. Services offered by network operators will shift. They will become more personal, reflecting the behaviours of subscribers more intimately and faithfully than ever before. They will shift in the way that tectonic plates shift grinding together with such force, power, and velocity that the mobile communications industry will never look the same again.

TekComms 4D TIP Report

Why read this paper?

This paper identifies the shape of things to come in 2013 and beyond, with a focus on key challenges that will inform new business models. It explores the range of vision that analytics should tighten in on, close up; the four dimensions covering a CSPs entire environment - subscriber behaviour/services/the network environment/ technologies. It highlights the role of analytics in leveraging monetisation opportunities from big data as a platform for more intelligent marketing activities and better, more proactive, customer care. It suggests smarter ways forward to deliver smarter services to increasingly smarter subscribers. For CSPs concerned about dwindling ARPU in the face of millions of free apps provided by thousands of OTT players, this paper is a must-read.

Contents
Section Section Section Section 1 2 3 4 - The five key challenges and opportunities facing mobile operators - The 4 dimensions of the telecoms world - Harnessing the big data asset in the network Into 2013: conclusions

Tektronix Communications is uniquely placed to offer the vision and predictions contained within this paper, having an entirely agnostic positioning. The company has recently augmented its traditional assurance and monitoring business with intelligence solutions precision-designed for each of the four dimensions of the network operators landscape. These are Subscriber behaviour, the Services and applications they consumer, the Network environments they occupy and the Technologies they use. This report shares Tektronix Communications insight into the opportunities and risks facing the telecoms industry, based on patterns and shifts it has witnessed among its global network operator partners.

TekComms 4D TIP Report

Section 1 2013: The Five Key Challenges and Opportunities Facing Mobile Operators
Challenge 1 Over The Top Integration Turning dumb pipes into profitable funnels
On the assumption that a mobile operator fully grasps the new data reality that the realisation of new profitable commercial models depends on the deployment of new, profit-enabling analytics and troubleshooting tools, techniques, and approaches then the days of being the mere provider of a dumb pipe are over. They are over as soon as 2013, since there should no longer be any unsolved mysteries, or un-deciphered subscriber actions, lurking in or flowing through the pipe. OTT providers have had a relatively unobstructed run at the market. They should by no means be considered the villains of the piece however, since they have pioneered the provision of a limitless array of services, partly in response to subscriber needs and partly several steps ahead of them, which has created the market in which mobile operators can now flourish. To put it another way, operators can now regain lost territory that could be considered to have been rightfully theirs all the time. The mobile space has matured enormously as OTT providers have learnt from each other; often emulating and then streamlining competitor propositions (the same competitors having then reemulated and re-streamlined the proposition). The data to which operators have access has become an asset of unprecedented value. If an operator does nothing with it, the data will still be there, growing, mutating, multiplying and gathering momentum every second of every day. Its one of those opportunities that sounds too good to be true and one of those even rarer commercial opportunities that actually is true. Operators simply need to leverage the asset. Doing nothing is not an option.

67% 82%

Annual growth of global mobile data traffic

Estimated drop in revenue per gigabyte by 2015

Doing the same, but doing it better

In April 2012 Ovum suggested that while global mobile connections are growing at 6.1% CAGR from 2011 to 2016, mobile services revenues are growing at a much slower CAGR of 2.2% by 2016. If such a trend were to continue without operators realigning their business models to deliver competitive services propositions addressing the OTT services market, CSPs would face continued ARPU erosion, general obscurity and ultimate demise; all from effectively giving passengers a free ride and sitting quietly in the driving seat while somebody else gets paid for the journey. If the analogy sounds absurd, so does the reality. Subscribers are getting on and off the network all day long and CSPs derive no commercial benefit. There can be few other examples of an entire commercial sector that provides a platform for others to thrive upon, without extracting or deriving any value from their success.

CAGR Comparison 2011-2016

Mobile Service Revenue Mobile Connections

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

However, the data that subscribers produce in their journeys provides the key to an operator at least sharing in the rewards and once an operator understands the subscriber journey, a limitless number of commercially attractive avenues opens up for exploration. Mobile operators can take the many lessons learned from OTT operators, emulate them, build upon them and welcome their subscribers back on board with an altogether more enticing service proposition.

TekComms 4D TIP Report

The growth trend observed by Ovum and others will continue. Compound annual growth rate of global mobile data traffic will run at 66% up to at least 2017, suggests Ciscos Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast. This implies a 13fold increase by 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month. Smarter subscribers want OTT services. They want constant access to social media, and to be able to send and receive photos and videos on the move; they demand a modern, connected lifestyle and expect their mobile device to deliver the wide variety of entertainment, information and connectivity options that help them live it. CSPs can now provide this, and more, since they can embellish and enrich the customer experience because they have, or can get when they deploy appropriate analytics technologies, the full visibility of the four dimensions of the network environment described in SECTION 2.

68% of the information in the digital universe in 2012, was created and consumed by consumers watching digital TV, interacting with social media, sending camera phone images and videos between devices and around the Internet, and so on. IDC The Digital Universe in 2020.

The added bonus of the CSP

Most pertinently, for a future in which the CSP competes head-on with the OTT provider, the CSPs unique visibility of the network environment results in control of that environment to deliver guaranteed quality of service. Furthermore, CSPs have a contractual duty of care over data security, giving them a natural ability to alleviate concerns subscribers may have of using unknown and largely anonymous third party application providers, with whom they have no contractual relationship. The result is that CSPs can offer new and innovative services to drive revenue into their system; services which meet the lifestyle expectations addressed by OTT providers, but with the added bonus of secure and uninterrupted connections no service drop in a roaming scenario, no frustration due to lack of interoperability (see RCS Compliance, below), happier subscribers, prepared to pay for better services.
Much of the digital universe is unprotected. IDC estimates that about a third of the data in the digital universe requires some type of protection to protect privacy, adhere to regulations, or prevent digital snooping or theft. However, currently, only about 20% of the digital universe actually has these protections. The level of protection varies by region, with much less protection in emerging markets.

The logical next step

Mobile operators now have the ability to launch their own branded voice, messaging and video-calling services to rival services from OTT players such as Skype, Viber and WhatsApp. These services will be the same, but better, with enhanced functionality and improved performance. Operators will also go one step further as the newly evident business model becomes increasingly apparent and as routes to market are expedited by the realisation that there is no need to re-invent the wheel. If OTT providers have created a rich and engaging service environment from an experience perspective, and CSPs control the network which can ensure delivery quality, continuous roaming and overall better customer experiences from a technology perspective, how much stronger a proposition comes about when the two become one? The market can expect a significant bout of merger and acquisition activity in 2013 and beyond as CSPs enter into joint ventures with OTT providers and look to accelerate growth in market share by acquiring OTT competitors.
Monetise the market CSPs must continue to encourage the growth in handset data and content services while defending against OTT players. Demand for these services will grow as content and handset functionality improve and 3G and 4G services become more widely available. Increased take-up and usage will drive revenue growth, particularly if CSPs can monetise these services for themselves. Analysys Mason, Worldwide telecoms market forecast 20122016

Challenge 2 - RCS Compliance A richer customer experience drives a richer bottom line
Gartner estimated smart device sales worldwide in 2012 to be over 820 million. The smart estimate for 2013 is in the order of 1.2 billion. The growth in data that accompanies such exceptional market expansion is both a cause for concern for CSPs (will it overwhelm?) and a platform for revitalised monetisation. Big data should be viewed as a world of opportunities, coming at just the point in market evolution when all-time-low margins were starting to take on a disturbing look of permanence. The high-performing next-generation network will exceed subscriber expectations but operators should look to dynamic strategies to make sure their own business models reflect and optimise the opportunities. The GSMA Rich Communication Services initiative (RCS) has a potentially pivotal role to play in such strategies. RCS, first launched in 2007, has been subject to a number of false starts. Detractors
Seamless service, seemingly obvious Deutsche Telekom, KT, LG U+, Movistar Spain, Orange Spain, SK Telecom, and Vodafone in Germany and Spain are signed up to Joyn and its influence is extending. SK Telecom acquired one million users for its Joyn service within just 50 days of its launch in late December 2012.

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suggest that the processes involved in reaching international agreement on standards hamper rapid developments for the very organisations that endeavour to implement them. Such processes, however, have their supporters; and the support is growing. The consumer-facing brand of RCS, Joyn, is attracting significant players to the party. Deutsche Telekom, KT, LG U+, Movistar Spain, Orange Spain, SK Telecom, and Vodafone in Germany and Spain are signed up to Joyn and with organisations such as these on board its influence is extending. Such operators are leading by example. They have grasped one of those significant new realities of owning the business that flows through the pipe; a reality further driven home by the harsh observation that if operators fail to leverage the business thats so close at hand to them, somebody else will.

More than an ecosystem

On the face of it, RCS compliance seems an obvious thread to connect operators. It offers a tensile superstructure capable of delivering on both operator commercial goals strengthening the loyalty of the subscriber base as the key to unlocking significant pockets of otherwise inaccessible revenue and subscriber expectations, particularly as they become more demanding in a 4G environment.
An extract from GSMA.com Bring the power of Rich Communications to your consumers RCS is changing the way people communicate. It delivers an experience beyond voice and SMS by providing them with instant messaging or chat, live video and file sharing across any device, on any network, with all the enabled contacts in their address book. RCS taps into how your consumers are already sharing their daily experiences with each other. Dont lose out to OTT stay competitive and innovate with APIs.

RCS output will redefine Big Data across networks as carriers mine a constant stream of information, revealing subscriber location and behaviour.

The operators that work together, grow together

Joyn is, however, only likely to live up to its promise if operators actively and cooperatively market the service , and take full advantage of what it has to offer. To draw an effective analogy the party will only go with a swing if lots of invitations are sent out and replied to. As standards of interoperability enhance the quality of service offered to subscribers, and as compliance between operators negates subscriber security concerns, the mobile environment itself will become richer for subscribers. They will be more prepared to pay for premium services, reassured in the knowledge that they will be receiving a premium experience. Mobility, to the average user, is just thatmobility; being on the move, flexible and agile. It will very, very soon not be at all about dropped calls, poor signals, slow downloads, frustration, complaint and limitation. RCS compliance will ensure interoperability, enabling users to access IM, chat and text across any device or network, and giving operators a real-time view of hundreds of millions of live conversations. As operators migrate to 4G technologies such as LTE they need to leverage network information from multiple technology domains to drive the growth of the mobile data industry.

At the current time, February 2013, one operator is receiving and interpreting 40 billion records per day. The same operator estimates that volume will rise to 100 billion by the end of 2013.
RCS compliance will help provide an uninterrupted view of the subscriber journey and, rather than providing an overwhelming bigness of data will feed into precision targeting the isolation of most-used services and the identification of mostencountered issues to address subscriber needs and allay subscriber concerns.

Challenge 3 - Private Cloud Its personal. Its business. Its total.

Mobility is extending the reach, agility, and competitive capabilities of the enterprise; enabling businesses to reduce costs at the same time by decreasing their dependence on unwieldy IT infrastructures which are, themselves gradually and inevitably being devolved into the cloud. The enterprise is also increasingly embracing mobility; Gartner estimates suggest that

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purchases of tablets by business will triple by 2016, reaching 53 million units. Some readers might remember the days when smart devices were called PDAs personal digital assistants. Wikipedia says PDAs are largely considered obsolete with the widespread adoption of smartphones. As phones and devices merge, and one assimilates the characteristics and capabilities of the other, the line between personal and work-related use of the device loses something of its definition. The smart device has become, once again, the personal digital assistant, except that it can now make phone calls, on the move. BYOD policies are in the ascendant throughout the commercial world and are gradually being embraced in certain areas of the public sector. Security issues are high on the agenda. Quality of service is right up there alongside them. So the market presents - at one and the same time - distinct user/subscriber segments combined with indistinct subscriber usage landscapes. Is a subscriber merely going social to share the latest hilarious video clip or birthday snap or is she/ he sending an important business document or checking out important information on the companys database while sitting in a client meeting?
Users are getting smarter Worldwide sales of mobile phones declined 3% in Q3 2012; smartphone sales increased 47% (Gartner)

Seamless IP-based communications

In 2013 operators will increasingly go head-to-head with cloud-based sync services such as Google Drive, Dropbox and Mozy by offering a more robust proposition over mobile networks. They will be better able to allow users to use the internet capabilities of their mobile device and users will no longer have to depend on the best-effort of the internet to access not just their music files, video clips and other personal material, but also work-related materials. Operators will provide consumer and business-class sync services over their own dedicated cloud architecture. A standard business model path will prevail - basic free services with additional bandwidth and security available at a premium.

Gartners estimate is that 40% of the workforce will be mobile by 2016.

To address the needs of this market, operators will be enhancing their business processes to differentiate themselves. They will offer high transparency to VIP accounts and, through cloud-based initiatives will themselves become the professional digital assistant of the mobile future.

Challenge 4 The Strategy Of Security

It might seem something of a surreal platform for a mobile operators competitive differentiation to advise subscribers that their private and personal information will not be threatened, disclosed or compromised. The data is, after all, theirs. But security has made its entry to the centre of the stage (see panel). If the FBI and the CIA can read private emails, anybody can exploit weak passwords and hack into accounts to plunder at will. This is not to detract from the intelligence of the security bodies data detectives but rather to show that the conduits are there, the way-in exists and smart hackers will find it. They will, of course, follow the line of least resistance. Security breaches are most common where the security is lapse.
Wassup? Data privacy laws breached WhatsApp, the OTT provider of cross-platform mobile messaging found itself in deep water recently when the Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada and the Dutch Data Protection Authority announced that the company had breached international privacy laws. WhatsApp had been retaining the address book data of its customers, meaning that millions of non-consenting non-users were stored. According to international law, data should only be kept for so long as it is required for the fulfilment of an identification purpose. The situation here has prompted observers to wonder if other apps are similarly sitting on data that they theoretically and legally have no right to be in possession of.

Protect and serve

The carriers robust network infrastructure provides a secure environment for wireless applications and in 2013 users will place more emphasis on security, as a result of three major drivers. Driver 1: The first is the arrival in the workplace of the techno-savvy employees own communications toolbox; the trend otherwise known as BYOD. This trend brings in its wake the associated risk of using OTT services that are subject to security breaches. If hackers hack in to personal accounts and find a back door into more exciting corporate material then the enterprise is compromised.

TekComms 4D TIP Report

A contractual obligation to safeguard data already exists between telecoms providers and their users, making carriers the most natural place for sensitive data to be held and used. Driver 2: The second driver is growing enterprise mobility; increasing numbers of the workforce being away from their home offices and connecting in via smart devices. Once again, security issues prevail. Driver 3: Better technology, and more of it. Consumers are becoming, through increasingly more highly-specified and capable devices, more demanding as their onthe-move agility becomes more liberating. They can do, see, access, watch, send and receive anything. They expect their device to be omnipotent and they expect it not to offer unknown parties (or even known parties) easy access to their sensitive data, unless they are expressly involved in granting permission for such access. During the course of 2013 consumers will come to view their network operators environment as a far safer environment in which to transact than the open, regulation-light world of the OTT player. LinkedIn was hacked last year and 6 million encrypted passwords were stolen; the safety of WhatsApp has been continually scrutinised; Facebook has had security concerns.

Juniper Research found that Android malware is up more than 3,325%, and other sources have suggested that 92% of the top iPhone apps have been compromised - across messaging, banking and ecommerce apps.
Mobile networks have robust security protocols in place to support hosted services; operator branded or with OTT partners. Security will become a key competitive advantage.

Challenge 5 Tier 2 4G Operators

If the mobile landscape is changing - if its tectonic plates are shifting - so are the market dynamics, and the relationships between the key players. The once-dominant Tier 1 operators are re-discovering their shoulders as they have to look back over them to see how close the competition is approaching.

LTE is no longer the domain of the Tier 1 carriers.

Tier 2 carriers are now set to enter the market with commercial 4G propositions that will challenge the dominance of the Tier 1 operators in their respective markets. The opportunities of 4G (LTE) are here and theyre here now. The dilemma is that they bring a number of sizeable challenges with them. Operators are concerned about integration and handovers, among other things straddling what will eventually become a transition from the 2G and 3G environment to the new world of LTE. Tektronix Communications has one of the largest deployments of LTE monitoring, and service assurance, systems in the world and is already monitoring commercial services over LTE. Network analytics have revealed that while many operators are concerned about potential revenue loss to OTT service providers, or simply through not being fully prepared for the transition, others are ahead of the curve. They are not only preventing ARPU erosion, they are reversing the trend. These are the companies that are maintaining their challenger carrier status by gathering the real and actionable insights into the customer experience. The adoption of a simple KPI approach, customised for an operators specific business and performance goals can cover network, services and subscribers across all technologies and enable an operator to address issues arising both from legacy networks and from LTE. Since 2G and 3G will remain with us for some time to come, network analytics must straddle the transition. There is no immediate point in time when subscribers will upgrade en masse, so the fact is the operator has to provide a service that is all things to all subscribers. It has to be sure also that it can benchmark vendors to ensure continuity of service. And thats where the competitive edge ultimately lies.

TekComms 4D TIP Report

Section 2 - The 4 Dimensions Of The Telecoms World

Shifting market dynamics - In 2012, a 4G connection generated 19 times more traffic on average than a non-4G connection. Although 4G connections represent only 0.9% of mobile connections today, they already account for 14% of mobile data traffic.
(Cisco. VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast).

Every picture tells a story

This is the year in which CSPs will grasp both the enormity of the potential they have at their fingertips and the richness and complexity of the data coming at them from every corner of the telecoms world. It isnt just about data that flows through the pipe; its about its source, destination, intent and purpose. Therefore its no longer a case of understanding the relatively simple single dimension of the network; its about accepting the role of the network as simply one aspect in a far more complex eco-system, where devices behave differently, deliver differently, and arrive on the network with their own varying degrees of capabilities which have instilled a wide spectrum of belief and expectation systems in their users. Within this eco-system, services and applications impose divergent demands on performance and each requires a unique analytic approach that brings to light the stresses and strains it might impose and, of course, the pressure it will place on the network as its adoption passes from novelty phase to must-have status and millions of users suddenly expect peak performance. Every picture tells a story; every data session reveals insights that can be used to inform customer experience management and customer care. As it does so it also delivers a platform for increasing ARPU by enabling operators to respond to the lessons within it on-going market research in its purest form since it tells the story of the customer journey and can be used to reactive benefit as well as proactive marketing and customer care advantage.

Anything less than the adoption of a 4 dimensional view of the telecoms world turns the data into nothing more earth-shattering than isolated code; jumbled, random and merely glancing moments of clarity.

A new era of clarity in 4 dimensions

The data can only assume this value, however, if it is heeded, correlated, located and contextualised. Anything less than the adoption of a 4 dimensional view of the telecoms world turns the data into nothing more earth-shattering than isolated code; jumbled, random and merely glancing moments of clarity. In 2013, the 4 dimensional approach to getting hold of data will herald a new era of clarity. If mobile operators are to interpret and monetise the data available to them it is best approached on a micro level, rather than as indicative trend data. It is best assessed in each of the 4 dimensions of the telecoms world. Operators are realigning their business models to offer the same agility as OTT players, the same range of exciting user services and the same thrills of discovery for users in the new, exciting and enriching experiences they access at the device level. Operators can now offer competitive propositions, but with added security and quality of service. The micro level approach to data means never having to say you missed an opportunity due to events occurring in parts of the network you simply couldnt see. This section takes each of the four dimensions covering a CSPs entire environment and examines its role in the bigger picture:

Subscriber behaviour Services and applications The network environment Technologies used

TekComms 4D TIP Report

Subscriber behaviour

Services and apps

Technologies

Network

Dimension 1: Subscriber behaviour

Mobile operators sit on a potential goldmine of personal data based on presence, location and preference. They can mine data that reveals what websites subscribers visit, which applications they use, and what products they buy. Many subscribers use their mobile device as their window to the world, revealing countless details about their daily lives. The information now applicable to each subscriber relates to their interactions with the services and applications they use and the network that delivers them. In our customer-centric world, subscriber intelligence will be key to offering lifestylerelevant products and services, increasing ARPU and reducing churn. With the ever-increasing pace of rich applications flooding the market, subscriber expectations and resulting demands on network operators will only grow. There is a caveat; it is too early in the roll out of LTE for the tail to be allowed to wag the dog. There is an exceptionally large universe of 3G and even 2G devices out in the market and a large subscriber universe still content to use voice and messaging services and not much else. Readiness for LTE is a future-thinking strategy and the way the market is moving but, as operators align their capabilities and services to the 4G world, legacy devices and traditional users should by no means be left by the wayside; they still constitute the industrys bread and butter. As one of the four dimensions of the telecoms world, subscriber behaviour itself is multi-dimensional.

The mobile footprint giant step to a new business model

With the complete end-to-end view of the network of which a TIP can help operators gain total visibility, operators can assure QoS and QoE, but also begin interactive dialogues with their customers based on close-up observations of subscriber behaviours. They can communicate with their customers based on real-time user behaviour the mobile footprint - providing them with highly personalised and relevant service offerings. Operators will have new upsell and cross-sell opportunities at the customer level, but will also be in a position to go one step further in strengthening and expanding their business models. They will be in a position to broker anonymous data, for marketing purposes, to third party organisations without contravening privacy and data protection legislation. Data that is intrinsic to the smooth running of the network, such as usage patterns and the geo-location of devices, is also of immense value to any number of brands and organisations. By its very nature this information collected from smartphones and tablets, comprises a history of online activity and the interaction with applications and social media sites. Its a two-way history. End-users do not simply passively receive content and information, they actively engage with it - registering with new websites, regularly downloading applications, videos and games, and then responding by uploading visuals and text. This two-way interaction between the user and the network is equivalent to a conversation, and the data stream is growing. Given that this information is being collected in real-time, and is a direct representation of subscriber behaviour, operators probably have a better insight into

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the lifestyle of individuals than Google or Amazon. The use which these two digital giants make of interactive data is well-known as any internet user or online shopper will attest to. The immediate cross-sell or upsell pitch delivered in response to any interaction may, by some, be considered intrusive, but to millions upon millions of others its simply the way of the world and they respond.

Operators can leverage this two-way data stream on two significant strategic fronts:

Dynamic service enhancement: to improve customer interactions through smarter marketing initiatives. The delivery of packages that address identified usage patterns; whether its an all-day-long social media user, a peak-hour business user, an anticipated spike in demand such as the London 2012 Olympics, greater roaming requirements or any of a number of other common usage characteristics that represent huge returns if operators work the data to identify them. Ultra-dynamic customer care: to energise faster responses in resolving subscriber issues, turning them into revenue opportunities. Subscribers complain when they cannot access voice or data services. Operators can keep subscribers satisfied by using subscriber events to trigger proactive messages. By examining network signalling, operators can trigger appropriate actions at the point of customer impact; real-time information enables operators to inform customer care departments in advance so they are prepared for calls as they come in and can impress subscribers with immediate solutions. Such actions turn potentially negative scenarios into positive selling opportunities.
Make network connectivity easy A focus on customer experience, including the implementation of better self-care platforms and better use of customer data in analytics, can help CSPs to reduce the OPEX associated with customer care. CSPs should improve customer experience by making network connectivity easy for customers. CSPs must meet the changing demand for content consumption by improving service availability and quality. Analysys Mason, Worldwide telecoms market forecast 20122016

The deployment of agnostic service assurance and monitoring solutions that mine data across multiple network and technology domains reveals what subscribers are doing, when theyre doing it and why. It enables operators to improve their understanding of customer experience and activity across their network, and provides the opportunity to adopt a true one-to-one approach to marketing. It also underpins better customer care policies.

Dimension 2: Services and apps

Deep packet classification is a new capability that helps CSPs see all the unique services that go across their mobile broadband network. It enables monitoring on a per customer/ per service basis. Hardware and software probes can monitor the network in real-time right down to the user device, from an aircard to a tablet. Through such probes, the carrier can track the experience on the network for voice, video and data then database it to show performance trends. A TIP can help operators by providing the true power that comes with knowing how, when and why subscribers use their various apps. Subscribers are smart and getting smarter. They know that if they cant access Facebook on their mobile, it isnt Facebooks fault. They also know its pretty much not the fault of the device either. They blame the operator. As the range of rich apps and data-heavy innovations such as conversational video start to become mainstream, operators need the ability to assure that the experience is seamless. This means spotting traffic issues in advance of their becoming big traffic influxes to the customer care desk. The data is constantly on the move, constantly revealing the real-time state-of-play in the network. This means it can be leveraged to help identify and predict, alert and isolate problems as they occur. More than efficient issue resolution, however, this capability creates the platform for proactive subscriber alerts whereby customer care can advise subscribers in advance of any issues should they happen to require longer to fix. If the operator feels that the issue is of sufficient stature, as opposed to simply notifying subscribers of an off-peak outage which will cause no major inconvenience, then it can use the problem to demonstrate excellence in customer care- offering free data minutes as a compensation for inconvenience caused, for example. With complete end-to-end vision of the data - the ability to foresee issues and respond strategically as opposed to being wise after the event- every problem effectively becomes an opportunity.

Platform for growth

Understanding services and applications used is about more than ensuring a seamless customer experience. Operators cannot underestimate the strategic

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importance of having a window that affords a clear and uninterrupted view into subscriber behaviour patterns. In some regards its the same window that Amazon looks through when it delivers personalised recommendations based on a purchasers history: If you liked thisyoull love this. So, a crime reader is presented with associated crime titles, a laptop purchaser is presented with portable computing accessories, a clothes purchaser is introduced to an exciting new world of fashion options, and the list goes on to address every identified purchasing pattern and to nudge the site visitor creatively in the direction of the next purchase. Operators have a greater edge in that their data and insights are real-time and constant, reflecting entrenched behavioural patterns among their subscribers. This is the dimension of the telecoms world where the line can truly be drawn under further encroachment into the pipe by OTT players. Operators can observe the most-used services and deliver better, more relevant, more integrated versions, backed up with the quality of service guarantee that OTT players cannot provide. This is where the tectonic plates shift.

Dimension 3: Technologies used

The customer experience and core network management solutions provided by a TIP can help carriers prepare for the challenges of new device launches. Mobile services are becoming more integrated and more personalized. There are also, of course, more of them. Operators looking to manage and test the underlying technologies that deliver these services are working in a large, loosely defined environment, not always under their control. As the barriers-to-entry for equipment manufacturers are dropping, overall competitiveness is increasing. Advances in smart devices and tablets, combined with new technologies such as Voice-over-LTE and the GSM Association (GSMA) endorsed Rich Communication Suite, are revolutionising the subscriber experience. To successfully manage this evolving range of technologies, protocols and equipment characterizing the next-generation network, it is crucial that the industry has flexible, thorough and open test and measurement solutions. Such solutions ensure that network components and subsystems are operating within specifications across both legacy and next-generation technologies.

A subscribers first experience with a new device on the network is the most critical moment in a successful launch.
Network and device management solutions make the difference between great success or increased churn. With thousands of devices coming onto the network at the same time, the impact cannot always be comprehensively understood simply through lab testing. When a device such as the iPhone5 hits, it hits big; impacting the signalling network and bandwidth requirements and bringing in new apps. Customer experience management solutions can track soft launch subscriber behaviour and performance to detect performance problems which may surface before launch. Device management solutions track device integration from testing to launch. The tendency of device manufacturers and network equipment manufacturers to play fast and loose with telecommunications specifications often leads to failures which are hard to recreate and troubleshoot. The burden of proof invariably falls on the carrier to push a working solution between two vendors. Using solutions which identify the points of failure and capture the proof makes the process of vendor troubleshooting faster and easier. Deep packet solutions provide the ability to track new application behaviour, so that carriers can determine the impact of signalling and media on the network. This gives them the ability to plan network expansions for areas and regions which may see congestion issues at launch.

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Dimension 4: Network performance

Every call goes through the core; it is where the mobile footprint leaves its impression the data that identifies the activity engaged in, the location, the frequency, and the clear signs crying out to be understood. The 4 dimensional approach to the telecoms world enables operators to understand these signs. The key is in ensuring that the network is in order at all times. Core network applications are available that reduce outages, accelerate resolution timeframes, and improve network quality. These applications can be managed by one end-to-end system. Network components are becoming functionally more complex; having to operate in environments that involve multiple technologies, vendors and standards. The heterogeneous network renders niche testing solutions inadequate. They only address a small portion of the problem; they only serve to ensure that certain elements of an operators technology portfolio are ticking over.

Managing network complexity on the road to LTE

Issues in the core network compound the entire infrastructure. In an increasingly demanding world operators must have the right tools in place to react quickly to subscriber problems and plan for future success. 2013, like 2012 before it, will be a transition year as LTE dominates the agenda but 2G and 3G remain current and will co-exist for a long time to come. Legacy networks are composed of multiple technologies, each supporting individual services or applications such as SMS, voice and billing. The legacy network operations model required designated technical and engineering teams for each separate technology and service, which led to a siloed model for the provision, and support, of individual services. Legacy networks initially relied heavily on circuit switching, and over time, evolved to packet IP switching. However, this evolution did not occur at once with some portions of the network making the transition to IP faster than others. This has resulted in the rise of hybrid networks. Some operators - for economic, business or technical reasons - are not yet ready to transition away from their legacy technologies. These factors mean that carriers are forced to cope with multiple network topologies; and their associated underlying legacy technologies. One of the associated problems is that subscribers now expect the same level of experience for mobile as they do for fixed. To ensure smooth service across the network, operators can deploy a test and measurement solution that can test specific protocols and standards, over multiple technologies, to inspect if legacy and next generation components are working individually, but also communicating efficiently with each other; and while successfully transporting varied types of media. A TIP can help through the provision of a single platform test and measurement tool, with a single user interface that can perform legacy and IP testing, at the same time, and monitor legacy media conversion to, and from, IP. Due to the level of equipment in mobile networks from multiple vendors it is also important that this test and measurement system is vendor agnostic; and is capable of monitoring equipment from any vendor. Having a single, functional and flexible test system like this can help operators make an easier transition to an all IP network; while still retaining the optimum performance of their legacy networks.

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Section 3 - Harnessing The Big Data Asset In The Network

Network visibility in a big data world
Until now many mobile operators have tended to regard a green indication for their network as confirmation of both fault-free functioning through the whole network and of no-action-required subscriber satisfaction. Yet problems occur in areas not always revealed in the network overview. In terms of overall network management the macro approach such problems may seem small; to the subscriber/s experiencing the fault they seem like an interruption in service the first few times but, if they persist, reason enough to shop around for a better service. Dropped calls, failed handovers, interrupted videos, delayed receipt of messages, and the many other glitches that may have passed unnoticed in the mobile world of yesteryear are unacceptable in 2013, and intensely annoying in the 4G environment. The notion that subscribers might have their id stolen, or unwittingly pass personal sensitive data over to a service provider, is untenable, but it happens (SEE Wassup? panel).
Keep an eye on market nuances Emerging markets accounted for 36% of the digital universe in 2012 that will grow to 62% by 2020. China alone will account for 22%.

(Source: IDC)

The network you can see versus the one you cant
Real-time end-to-end data collection and analysis across each of the four dimensions of the network gives operators full visibility; making sure there are no hidden issues that may detract from an otherwise impeccable service. They are in an ideal position to focus strategically on customer experience management not least because the security issues often affecting OTT players (identity theft) do not affect core networks. As well as offering subscriber reassurance on security a concern which is growing and subdividing with almost every new capability a smart device delivers - operators can ensure greater interoperability through initiatives such as Joyn, the commercial brand of the GSMA Rich Communication Suite compliance (see below). Herein lies one of the big data crunch-points for the mobile operator; problems in the network, no matter where they lurk, can now be easily located to drive better experiences. The technology exists to do it and the data exists ready to surrender up its insights. Without a view of precisely whats going on, from a user perspective, there can never be a truly end-to-end solution that eradicates the glitches. With the heightened demands of LTE, glitches will become inefficiencies, which will turn into complaints, which will become a negative and time-consuming drain on resources, and ultimately lead to churn and lost revenue opportunities.
Where does all that data come from? The GSMA predicts that the total number of mobile connected devices will grow 100% from more than a billion in 2013 to 12 billion in 2020.

The days of one dimensional and two dimensional passive monitoring are over. In 2013 and beyond, operators will look deeper into the rich insights carried in a wealth of data stored across their networks.
They will follow and analyse every path of the data journey not only because they now can, particularly by partnering with a proven and reliable TIP, but because such an approach is the survival strategy for the modern age and certainly the competitive advantage in the LTE environment. Valuable insights reside as much in those parts of the network that operators cant currently see as in those that may be more obvious, but will never deliver the full story. As the migration to 4G gathers pace operators can now gain full visibility: seeing everything and being everywhere, gaining a real competitive advantage over OTT players and mitigating their current risk to revenues and ownership of the customer relationship. The ability to extract information historically, and in real-time, provides the operator with an unparalleled breadth and depth of insight into the subscribers behaviour, the services and applications theyre consuming, the performance of the network theyre using and the different technology standards it supports. In 2012 Tektronix Communications shipped over 17 Petabytes of data, which is a 5th of Facebooks stored data capacity. The combination of Big Data and the

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granular detail that we can provide has presented the carriers with more actionable intelligence about their business, and their customers, than they have previously had access to. Operators are using this information to develop new business models rooted in security and quality of service.

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Section 4 - Into 2013: Conclusions

The number of mobile-connected devices will exceed the worlds population in 2013.
(Cisco. VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast).

The race is on
4G mobile networks supported by the LTE standard will become more pervasive over the next decade, but they wont all come at once. Juniper Research estimates that the number of LTE subscribers will reach 428 million by 2016 with a surge in growth taking place in 2012. This year promises to be a watershed for LTE, as some wireless operators take stock of the economic and competitive environment in their respective markets; and consider their rollout options. The development of the LTE industry in global markets will vary according to the competitive environment in addition to an operators ability to deliver data efficiently. The race is on. Its a race both against time and against the continuously firmer footprint that OTT service providers are stamping across the network. Data is the fact. Using it to benefit the network is the issue. The two-way data stream the network now serves has implications on improving how carriers interact not only with customers, but also with businesses and major organisations looking to harness the capabilities of mobile devices. Operators can consider a rich source of business intelligence that can be used in two ways, both equally valuable in helping them to monetise their assets - particularly as LTE takes over and generate significant returns on their investment in network infrastructure. (1) The network needs eyes to look inside its own operations to provide service assurances, guarantee accuracy, security and the quality of new data sets coming on stream; total visibility and control to streamline the services it provides. The performance of the infrastructure is pivotal as new users come on with an expectation of nothing less than the highest quality of service. Users early experiences of voice, video, and data have to be good if operators are going to avoid churn. A connected world offers enormous choice to mobile device users and theyre becoming increasingly promiscuous between service providers and ever more agile in their competence in switching from one provider to the next. (2) CSPs appreciating and realising the value of big data as a marketing tool will be the ones that stay ahead of the pack in 2013. It provides potential flexibility to enable a wide range of personal services which will soon impact daily life far more fundamentally than just by making shopping easier or serving as tools for social contact. The critical driving force is that networks have the data. The focus is both on keeping it flowing through the pipe successfully and then taking it out of the pipe and using it as a platform for intelligent marketing. The network has end-to-end control of the connected device. The new business model is based on accepting that data, big though it may be, smart as it certainly is, is not a problem that operators have to contend with, but an opportunity they can maximise.

About Tektronix Communications Tektronix Communications is uniquely positioned as the communications industrys first Telecommunications Intelligence Provider (TIP) offering both service assurance and monitoring and network intelligence solutions that uniquely cover all four dimensions of the service providers environment: subscriber behavior, the services and applications they consume, the network environments they occupy and the technologies that enable them. Our comprehensive set of assurance, intelligence and test solutions and services support a range of architectures and applications such as LTE, HSPA, 3G, IMS, mobile broadband, VoIP, video and triple play. Tektronix Communications is headquartered in Plano, Texas. For Further Information Tektronix Communications maintains a comprehensive, constantly expanding collection of white papers, application notes and other resources. Please visit http://www tekcomms. com/ ServiceandSupport/ Literature Contact Tektronix Communications 3033 W President George Bush Hwy, Plano, TX 75075, U.S.A. Phone: +1-469-330-4000 Fax: +1-469-330-4001 Please visit www.tekcomms.com 02/CMW-28949-0

Inc. All rights reserved. Tektronix Communications products are covered by U.S. and foreign patents, issued and pending. Information in this publication supersedes that in all previously published material. Specification and price change privileges reserved. TEKTRONIX and TEK are registered trademarks of Tektronix, Inc. All other trade names referenced are the service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies.

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