Navigating Through A Sea of Crisis

2009
the past and beyond…

1 2 3 4 5 6

Strategy and
Vicious Cycle Economic Picture Summary

Series of Events

Government Actions Risks and Challenges

 2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 BDO

EQUITY MARKETS down by more than 50%

depreciating PHILIPPINE PESO

volatile CRUDE OIL prices

bankruptcies, layoffs, RECESSION..

WHAT’S HAPPENING??!
 SNAPSHOT: World Stock Index Falling…..
MSCI WORLD INDEX (713.850, 803.110, 688.638, 803.110, +52.2470)
1682.35 ( B )
1750 1750
C
1700 1560.68 1700

1650 ii 1650

1600 1600

1550 1448.76 I 1550

(5)
1500 1500
3
1450 1450

1400 1400

1350 i 1350

1300 1085.80 1356.78 1300

1250 1 1250
1142.95 ( 3 ) A
1200 4 1200

1150 1024.42 1150

B
1100 1100
2
1050 1050

1000 1000

950 B 950

900 997.726 900

850 (4) 850

908.07 A
800 800
856.59
750 750
571.02 834.35 iii
700 700
(1)
650
C 650
( A)
600 Near-Term Support at 700.00 600
703.704
550 550

500 500

450 450

400 400
( 2 ) 423.14
350 401.02 350

300 300

Relative Strength Index (20.4116)

90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Bloomberg LP and BDO

DJIA: Almost Bottom?
16500 (USA) Dow Jones Industrial Average (8,772.25, 9,088.06, 6,469.95, 7,400.80, -1,375.59) 16500
16000 16000
15500 14198.10 15500
(B)
15000 15000
14500 14500
14000 14000
11780.28 (I)
13500 V 13500
13000 (5) 13000
12500 12500
12000 12000
11500 11500
11000 11000
10500 10500
10000 10000
9500 9500
9000 9000
8500 8500
8000 8000
7500 7500
7000 7000
(A)
6500 7197.41 6500
6000 6000
6594.44
5500 5500
5000 5000
4500 4500
4000 2746.65 4000
(3)
3500 3500
3000 3000
2500 2500
2000 1018.00 2000
995.14 III (1)
1500 1500
(4)
1000 381.17 I 1000
1853.61
500 500
IV (2) 736.80
0 573.20 0
II 41.22
-500 -500
-1000 -1000

100 Relative Strength Index (24.1395) 100

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: Bloomberg LP and BDO

Financial Sector Writedowns
Bank Writedowns / Losses and Capital Raised, USDbn
1,750

1,500 Asia
Europe
Americas
1,250 Total Capital Raised

1,000

750

500

250

(Jan.'09)
(to date)

IMF Est.
Prior

(Apr.'08)

(Oct.'08)
Q3.07

Q1.08

Q2.08

Q3.08

IMF Est.

IMF Est.
Q4.07

Q4.08

Q1.09*

Source: Bloomberg, IMF and own calculations

Global Markets on a tailspin following collapse of
US Housing Market in 2007

MOST OF YOU WILL ASK:

IS IT OVER?
 1
SERIES OF
EVENTS
HOW DID WE GET HERE?

Influx of money
to the U.S.A

Low interest rates promoted

consumption and investment

Speculative
Easy credit
demand Housing
encouraged investing
required more Prices soared
in housing market
funding

Subprime exposure
magnified defaults
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Investors
Housing forced to sell
prices fell at lower prices
to cut losses

Flood of assets Forced Financial

lowered their to raise institutions reported
values capital write downs and
record losses

LOSS OF
Collapse and WEALTH =
Bankruptcy; Economic
Stock market Slowdown
crash
 REAL ECONOMY
ASSET PRICES GO BAD LOANS SOARED CREDIT MARKET
DOWN TIGHTENS

CREDIT MARKETS AFFECTED

UNEMPLOYMENT BUSINESS LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE

RISES EXPANSION HALTS

REAL ECONOMY AFFECTED

CONSUMER COMPANIES EQUITY

SPENDING AND REPORT LOWER VALUATIONS FALL
INVESTMENT SLOWS INCOME

RECESSION
 2
VICIOUS
CYCLE
THE VICIOUS CYCLE
BANK
WRITEDOWNS
AND LOSSES

MORE DEBT
CREDIT CRUNCH
DEFAULT

FORECLOSURES / HEALTHY COMPANIES

BANKRUPTCIES CANNOT SECURE FUNDING

LESS CONSUMPTION, LESS INVESTMENT,

UNEMPLOYMENT
 3
GOVERNMENT
ACTIONS
 IDEAL SCENARIO TO SOLVE THE CRISIS:
ASSET PRICES LOWER
ACTION STABILIZE WRITEDOWNS

CREDIT MARKETS STABILIZE

CREDIT MARKET BORROWING NEEDS
LENDING RESUMES
LOOSENS LESSEN

REAL ECONOMY STARTS TO PICK UP..

CONSUMER SPENDING AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT HIGHER EQUITY

INVESTMENT STARTS TO PICK-UP IMPROVES VALUATIONS

RECOVERY
 LINES OF DEFENSE
FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE
Accommodative monetary policies

SECOND LINE OF DEFENSE

Fiscal stimulus

THIRD LINE OF DEFENSE

Direct interventions (i.e. takeover of institutions)

The key is limiting moral hazard while safeguarding

financial stability
 AGGRESSIVE ACTION IS NECESSARY!
Measures to AID the US Economy

LIQUIDITY SOLVENCY ECONOMY

DEPOSIT BAIL OUT / RESCUE ACCOMODATIVE

INSURANCE PLANS MONETARY POLICIES

CENTRAL BANK ASSET PURCHASE

FISCAL STIMULUS
LIQUIDITY FACILITIES SCHEMES

RECOVERY
How will it affect the US Economy?
GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
…will help normalize the
Provide access to funds
CREDIT MARKETS

More consumption, more

…will stimulate the
REAL ECONOMY investments, more business
activity

…will increase optimism Corporate profits to

in EQUITY MARKETS increase, stock prices to rise
WHY IS FEAR STILL
HERE?

CHANGE comes SLOWLY

Negative news breeds
and feeds FEAR
 4
ECONOMIC
PICTURE
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK

To understand financial markets, these are the indicators to look at:

Market Indicator
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product
Goods Market Inflation Rate
Funding Market Interest Rate
External Market Foreign Exchange Rate
External Market (portfolio) Stock Market
Philippines : Today

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure Political / Social Tension

22 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
 Au

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
g-
9
De 7
c-
9
Ap 7
r-9
Au 8
g-
9
De 8
c-
9
Ap 8
r-9
Au 9
g-
9
De 9

23 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
c-
9
Ap 9
r-0
Au 0
g-
0
De 0
c-
0

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Ap 0
r-0
Au 1
OFW Remittances

g-
0
De 1
c-
0
Ap 1
r-0
Au 2
g-
0
De 2
c-
0
Ap 2
r-0
Au 3

OFW Remittances
g-
0
De 3
c-
0
Ap 3
r-0
Au 4
g-
0
De 4
c-
0
USD/PhP

Ap 4
r-0
Au 5
g-
0
De 5
c-
0
Ap 5
r-0
Au 6
g-
0
De 6
c-
0
Ap 6
r-0
Au 7
g-
0
De 7
c-
0
Ap 7
r-0
Au 8
g-
0
De 8
c-
08
Steady flow of remittances helps cushion the currency’s vulnerability
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Philippines : Today

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure Political / Social Tension

24 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
 Then and Now

1997 2007 2008 2009F 2010F

GDP (annual variation in %) 5.20 7.30 4.60 5.30 5.30

Unemployment (%) 7.90 7.30 8.10 7.80 7.77

Fiscal balance (% of GDP) 0.10 (0.20) (1.00) (2.00) (1.10)

Interest Rate (benchmark in %, EOP) 17.70 3.70 5.80 5.02 4.95

Exchange Rate (vs. US$, EOP 39.98 41.25 47.52 48.50 45.74

Int. Reserves (months of imports) 2.90 7.00 7.20 7.61 8.04

External Debt (% of GDP) 52.20 38.10 34.50 31.48 30.70

Source: BSP, BDO

We are in BETTER SHAPE now than in 1997 during the Asian Crisis!

| Jonathan L. Ravelas
Philippines : Today

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure Political / Social Tension

26 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
Philippine Economic Resiliency Plan

COST SOURCE
PhP 160 billion Increase in the budget

PhP 40 billion Corporate and individual tax breaks

PhP 100 billion GOCCs, GFIs, private sector

Temporary additional benefits to

PhP 30 billion
GSIS / SSS/ PhilHealth members
 Crisis Four Economic Stimulus
2008 2009F
US$ bn % of GDP Description
GDP GDP
Infrastructure spending, tax
Philippines 4.60 4.00 7.0 4.3 breaks, education and other
causes (PhP 330 bn)
Infrastructure projects and
subsidies (IDR 17trn); Tax cuts
Indonesia 6.05 3.80 6.0 1.3
and concessions (IDR 56.3trn)

Fiscal spending, Guaranteed

funds for corporates and
Malaysia 5.20 0.80 17.0 9.0
SMEs, equity investments, tax
breaks
Cash handouts, training
Thailand 2.60 0.40 4.0 1.8 programmes, tax breaks and
public works (THB 116.7bn)
 PROJECTIONS
2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
World Output 4.00 4.00 2.30 - 0.30 2.60
United States 2.80 2.00 1.30 - 1.60 2.10
Euro Zone 2.80 2.70 0.70 - 1.90 0.90
Latin America 5.40 5.60 4.40 1.10 2.90
Asia 6.00 6.90 4.00 1.80 4.70
Japan 2.00 2.40 - 0.70 - 2.80 0.90
Asia (ex-Japan) 8.80 9.60 6.70 4.70 6.70
China 11.60 13.00 9.00 7.20 8.40
India 9.60 9.00 7.10 5.70 7.00
ASEAN 6.00 6.40 4.50 1.80 4.20
Indonesia 5.50 6.30 6.05 3.80 5.00
Malaysia 5.90 6.30 5.20 0.80 3.90
Philippines 5.40 7.20 4.60 4.00 4.50
Thailand 5.20 4.90 2.60 0.40 3.20
Source: Consensus Forecast, IMF, BDO Forecast
Philippines : Today

POSITIVE NEGATIVE

Strong OFW Remittance Inflow Limited stimulus

Build-up of international reserves Weak fiscal revenue structure

Flexible Foreign Exchange Policies Weakening export performance

Solid telecom infrastructure Political / Social Tension

30 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
 Philippine Fiscal Program

2007 2008 2009-E 2009-G

Revenues (Php bn) 1,137 1,202 1,214 1,302

Expenditures (Php bn) (1,149) (1,270) (1,384) (1,479)

Surplus/(deficit) (12) (68) (170) (177)

Deficit (% of GDP) (0.2%) (0.9%) (2.0%) (2.2%)

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

BDO Gov’t

 Government revises ’09 budget deficit to

PhP 178 billion (or 2.2% of GDP)
 PHILIPPINE ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS
Philippine GDP (YOY) Headline vs. Core Inflation
15 14

12
10

10

STABLE
0

-5

-10 Headline Core

2

-15
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996

MACROECONOMIC
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

2008
0
Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO

Jul-08 Jan-09

1500
Philippine Trade Balance FUNDAMENTALS 60
Philippine Peso
55

1000

50

500
45

0 40

35
-500

30

-1000
25

-1500 20
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO Source: BSP, NSCB and BDO
Circular Flow

Household

Income Consumption

Employment
Production
Production / Industrial
Sector

33 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
Effect of Crisis

Household

Income Consumption

Employment
Production

Production /
Industrial Sector

34 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
Circular Flow

Household

Income Consumption

Employment
Production

Production /
Industrial Sector

35 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
STIMULUS PACKAGE
Sector Watch List

LEAST AFFECTED MOST AFFECTED

Power and energy Electronics

Food and beverage Automobile
Healthcare Property
Infrastructure Mining
Business Process Outsourcing Tourism
PHILIPPINE YIELD CURVE

13
11
9
7 Remains Stable
5
3
3M 6M 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 7YR 10YR 20YR
6/13/2006 9.095 9.386 9.377 10.161 10.654 11.039 11.739 12.114 12.777
4/24/2006 4.620 5.340 6.030 6.166 6.221 6.439 6.722 6.882 8.622
12/31/2007 4.1885 4.9088 5.6654 5.7615 5.8569 6.0396 6.1385 6.5827 8.3288
12/24/2008 5.7523 6.0981 6.2142 6.4385 6.5962 6.8135 7.2038 7.4365 10.9673
3/20/2009 4.5554 4.6917 4.8004 5.2117 5.5825 6.3208 7.2421 8.0771 9.6688
SOVEREIGN YIELDS
20

18
VENE 25, 17.50

16

14

12

Competitive ROP Yields

INDON 35, 10.80

10 INDON 16, 9.91

VIET 16, 9.07 COL 27, 8.41
ROP31, 7.77
8 ROP25, 7.83
ROP19, 7.29 KOR 25, 7.33
ROP30, 7.87
ROP16, 6.48
6 MEX 26, 6.84 BRAZ 27, 7.29

MALAY 11, 3.62 ROP11, 3.61

4
CHI 13, 3.76
CHI 11, 2.73 10Y UST's, 2.56
2

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
WORLD CURRENCIES

Dollar Index 1.81%

British Pound -0.22%

Canadian Dollar -1.41%

Australian Dollar -1.57%

Philippine peso -1.57%

Thai Baht -1.68%

Euro -1.96%

Indian Rupee -2.64%

New Zealand Dollar -3.03%

Japanese Yen -4.01%

Swiss Franc -4.51%

-4.91%
Malaysian Ringgit

Singapore Dollar -5.18%

Indonesian Rupiah -5.88%

Korean Won -10.81%

-13.00% -11.00% -9.00% -7.00% -5.00% -3.00% -1.00% 1.00% 3.00%

USD/PhP: Volatility remains
ECONOMIC PICTURE
61.0 USD/PHP (48.9000, 49.1450, 48.9000, 49.0600, +0.26000) 61.0
60.5 Scenario 1 (I) 60.5
60.0 60.0
59.5 59.5
V
59.0 59.0
58.5 56.37 E 58.5
58.0 III 58.0
57.5 56.45 C 57.5
e
57.0 57.0
56.5 V 55.75 56.5
56.0 55.16 56.0
a 53.65
55.5 55.5
55.0 54.335 A 2 (0.51 %) 55.0
54.5 54.5
54.0 54.0
53.5 b 53.5
53.0
D 53.0
52.5 53.83 52.5
52.0 52.0
51.5 51.88 51.5
51.0 50.17 iii 51.0
50.5 50.88 1 50.5
50.0 50.0
49.5 49.5
49.0 49.0
48.5 B 47.12 48.5
48.0 49.25 4 48.0
47.5 47.5
47.0 45.88 47.0
46.5 i 46.5
44.79
46.0 iv 46.45 46.0
45.5 IV 45.5
45.0 45.0
44.5 44.5
44.0 46.00 3 44.0
43.5 44.70 ii 43.5
43.0 43.0
42.5
43.76 42.5
42.0 42.0
41.5 41.5
41.0 41.0
40.5 40.5
40.0 40.0
39.5 39.5
39.0
40.25 5 39.0
38.5 A 38.5
38.0 38.0
37.5 37.5
37.0 IV 37.52 37.0
36.5 36.5

Relative Strength Index (67.8106), Volume (0) 100

15000

10000 50

5000
0
x1000000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
WORLD EQUITIES

Shanghai Composite Index 25.28%

TWSE Index 8.07%

KOSPI Index 4.13%

Jakarta Composite Index 0.14%

-2.08%
PSEi Index

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index -2.74%

Stock Exchange of Thailand Index -4.91%

Dubai Financial Market Index -6.33%

SENSEX Index -7.67%

Tadawul All Share Index -8.39%

Straits Times Index -9.84%

Nikkei 225 -10.31%

Hang Seng Index -10.85%

S&P 500 -13.20%

FTSE 100 -13.92%

Dow Jones Industrial Average -15.67%

DAX Index -15.94%

-30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00%

PSEi: Volatility remains
4000
ECONOMIC PICTURE
Philippine Composite Index (1,818.57, 1,839.82, 1,745.39, 1,833.90, -22.2000)
4000
3820.55 ( 1 ) B 3896.74
3900 5 3900

3800 3800

3700 3700
3600 3600

3500 3500

3400 2 3400
3300 3300

3200 3200

3100 3100
3000 3000

2900
1 4 2900

2800 B 2632.60 A 2800

2602.46 3 2874.99 ii
2700 2700
2600 2600

2500 2500

2400 2400

2300 i 2300

2200 3 2200

2100 iv 2100
2000 4 2000

1900 2034.49 1900

1800 1800
1479.85
1700 1700
1
1600 iii 1600
C ?
1500 (2) 1500

1400 1684.75 1400

1300 1300

1200 1200

1100 1100

1000 1000
A 2
900 1075.32 900
C 985.03
800 II 800

700 978.19 700

100 Volume (1,008,141,952), Relative Strength Index (33.6180)

90
80 15000
70
60
50 10000
40
30
20 5000
10
0 x1000000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
 Sana wala na
yung 1,521, Sana
correction lang
ito at 2,500 na!
Stocks to watch
Investment Summary Price EPS Market
Philippines 3/20/2009 16:46 2009F 2009F Cap (PhP mn)
Holding Firms
SM 186.00 25.64 7.25 113,649.72
Utilities -
EDC 2.85 0.40 7.13 42,750.00
FGEN 19.00 7.97 2.38 15,390.57
FPH 22.25 6.82 3.26 13,092.35
MER 87.50 3.38 25.89 97,537.13
Financials
BDO 21.50 2.18 9.86 49,493.65
BPI 34.00 2.22 15.32 91,949.60
MBT 23.00 5.56 4.14 41,567.21
Food and Beverage -
JFC 44.00 2.44 18.03 44,658.68
Property -
ALI 5.50 0.26 21.15 71,690.30
MEG 0.48 0.11 4.36 9,907.99
SMPH 7.00 0.59 11.86 87,047.03
Telecoms -
TEL 1,965.00 223.36 8.80 370,854.45

Source: BDO and Bloomberg

44 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
Philippine Outlook Summary

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q4 2008 2009F 2009F 2009F 2009F

Consumer Prices (%, Y-O-Y) 8.00 7.20 6.50 6.30 6.20

Interest Rate (3M, EOP,%) 5.75 4.49 5.20 5.15 5.25

Interest Rate (5Y, EOP,%) 6.81 6.23 8.75 9.00 8.70

Exchange Rate (USD/PhP, EOP) 47.52 48.54 45.00 50.00 48.50

 Economy will stabilize in 1H09 as negative news are in the prices

 Currency and economy will recover as economic expectations
bottom out.
 5
RISKS AND
CHALLENGES
Risks and Challenges

 Global recession is here!

 The Philippines will escape a recession but will
experience a marked slowdown.
 Global and Local Markets remains Volatile
 Once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunities usually
arise during crisis years
 6
STRATEGY AND
SUMMARY
Investment Strategy
Asset Class Products 2009F
Cash Deposits
Fixed Income
Special Deposit Accounts(SDAs), Neutral
CASH
Money Market Funds

Fixed Income Fixed Income Treasury Notes, Local Diversify and shift to
Peso Denominated corporate bonds floaters from fixed

ROPs, USTs
Fixed Income Trade
US$ bond funds
USD$ Denominated Yield Range: 7% - 12%
(UITF, Mutual Funds)

Common stocks, stock funds

Equities Accumulate
(UITF, Mutual Funds)

49 | Jonathan L. Ravelas
CAN THE NEWS GET ANY WORSE?
 WHERE ARE WE NOW?
POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISK
Euphoria
“Wow, I am
Smart.” Anxiety “Temporary set back – I’m
Thrill a long-term investor.”
Denial
Excitement Fear

WE ARE HERE! Desperation Optimism

Optimism
Relief
Panic
Hope
“How could I have Capitulation
been so wrong?” Depression
Despondency
POINT OF MAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY
 WISHFUL THINKING
One could only think of the following:

Prices are relatively “CHEAP”

Higher yields (interest rates)

Higher yields (interest rates)

Better dollar value (slightly
depreciated)

♦The BEST time to INVEST is

when things are at its
WORST.
 SUMMARY
The WORLD ECONOMY is robust
enough to weather this global
financial storm.
The PHILIPPINES is in BETTER
shape to face the challenges
ahead.
These adjustments are good
opportunities to ENTER the
market. But some RISKS remain.
 Thank You for Listening

``the race is not to the swift nor the battle to the strong,
neither yet bread to the wise,
nor yet riches to men of understanding,
nor yet favour to men of skill;
but time and chance happeneth to them all."

Ecclesiastes 9:11
 PROJECTIONS
2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
World Output 4.00 4.00 2.30 - 0.30 2.60
United States 2.80 2.00 1.30 - 1.60 2.10
Euro Zone 2.80 2.70 0.70 - 1.90 0.90
Latin America 5.40 5.60 4.40 1.10 2.90
Asia 6.00 6.90 4.00 1.80 4.70
Japan 2.00 2.40 - 0.70 - 2.80 0.90
Asia (ex-Japan) 8.80 9.60 6.70 4.70 6.70
China 11.60 13.00 9.00 7.20 8.40
India 9.60 9.00 7.10 5.70 7.00
ASEAN 6.00 6.40 4.50 1.80 4.20
Indonesia 5.50 6.30 6.05 3.80 5.00
Malaysia 5.90 6.30 5.20 0.80 3.90
Philippines 5.40 7.20 4.60 4.00 4.50
Thailand 5.20 4.90 2.60 0.40 3.20
Source: Consensus Forecast, IMF, BDO Forecast
 FORECASTS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
GDP (US$ billion) 99.00 117.60 144.10 168.60 175.34 183.23
GDP (annual variation in %) 4.90 5.40 7.30 4.60 4.14 4.50
Private Consumption (annual variation in %) 4.80 5.50 5.80 4.50 4.00 4.40
Gross Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) (8.80) 5.00 11.20 4.20 3.80 7.96
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 4.25 4.80 7.10 5.00 2.10 3.83
Unemployment (end-of-period, %) 8.10 7.80 7.40 8.10 7.79 7.77
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (2.70) (1.10) (0.20) (1.00) (2.00) (1.10)
Consumer Prices (end-of-period, annual variation in %) 7.60 6.30 2.80 9.30 6.74 6.80
Interest Rate (short-term benchmark, end-of-period, in %) 5.60 5.30 3.70 5.80 5.02 4.95
Interest Rate (long-term benchmark, end-of-period, in %) 9.57 5.99 6.04 6.81 8.70 7.24
Exchange Rate (against US$, end of period) 53.07 49.13 41.25 47.52 48.50 45.74
Exchange Rate (against US$, average) 55.09 51.31 46.19 44.48 47.63 44.59
Current Account Balance (US$ millions) 2.00 5.30 6.40 3.10 3.00 3.00
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.00 4.50 4.40 1.80 1.71 1.64
Trade Balance (US$ millions) (7.70) (6.96) (7.91) (11.18) (10.50) (11.70)
Exports (US$ millions) 40.30 46.50 49.30 49.00 47.40 49.84
Imports (US$ millions) 48.00 53.30 57.60 62.20 57.90 61.54
Exports (annual variation in %) 3.80 15.60 6.00 (0.60) (3.27) 5.15
Imports (annual variation in %) 8.00 10.90 8.10 8.10 (6.91) 6.29
International Reserves (US$ millions) 18.40 23.00 33.80 37.10 36.70 39.94
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.60 5.20 7.00 7.20 7.61 7.79
Total External Debt (US$ millions) 54.20 53.40 54.90 58.20 57.10 57.68
Total External Debt (% of GDP) 54.70 45.40 38.10 34.50 34.50 31.48