Commodities Evening Update

Friday | May 10, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | May 10, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

Indias Industrial Production grew by 2.5 percent in March. German Trade Balance was at surplus of 17.6 billion Euros in Mar. UKs Trade Balance was at a deficit of 9.1 billion in March. European markets are trading higher on the back of favorable economic data from Germany. Asian markets ended on positive note. US stock futures are trading in green. Indias Industrial Production grew by 2.5 percent in March as against a rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. Manufacturing Output increased by 3.2 percent in March from rise of 2.2 percent in the earlier month. German Trade Balance was at surplus of 17.6 billion Euros in March as against a previous surplus of 17.1 billion a month ago. Italian Industrial Production declined by 0.8 percent in March from earlier fall of 0.9 percent in February. UKs Trade Balance was at a deficit of 9.1 billion in March as against an earlier deficit of 9.2 billion a month ago. Spot gold prices declined by 1.54 percent today on the back of strength in dollar index. Further rise in stock markets has led to decline in demand for safe haven. Further, SPDR gold trust holding is near to 4 years low acted as a negative factor. However, favourable German trade balance cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in the prices. Taking cues from decline in spot gold prices, spot silver prices decreased by 1.23 percent. Further, strength in DX added downside pressure. However, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with favorable economic data from Germany prevented sharp downside in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in the prices. The base metals pack traded on a mixed note on the back of strength in DX along with upbeat global market sentiments. Favorable economic data from Germany along with decline in LME inventories cushioned sharp fall in the prices. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp decline in the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased by 0.20 percent today on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with favorable economic data from Germany. Further, decline in US initial jobless claims supported prices to trade in green. Additionally, decline in LME inventories acted as positive factor. However, weak economic data from UK along with strength in DX capped sharp upside in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices fell by 0.89 percent today on the back of strength in dollar index coupled with weak economic data from UK. Further, cut in the global demand for crude oil by EIA coupled with expectations of increase in OPEC output by more than 2 percent added downside pressure on the prices. However, upbeat global market sentiments along with rise in Imports and Exports data from Germany prevented sharp fall in the prices. .

as at 4.30 pm 10 May 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

6046.25 19911.08 14449.24 1975.48 17159.55

6105.30 20119.14 14636.81 1975.48 17361.11

6045.60 19908.80 14426.74 1944.75 17157.54

6094.75 20082.62 14607.54 1944.75 17157.54

0.74 0.72 2.93 -1.75 1.33

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 10 May 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.82 1.3041 54.24

83.19 1.305 54.755

82.765 1.2981 54.24

83.10 1.2994 54.75 as at 4.30 pm 10 May 13

0.27 -0.36 0.74

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Mar13 MCX Gold June13 Spot Silver Comex Silver May13 MCX Silver May13 Crude Oil Nymex May 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil* MCX Crude Oil April 13 Copper LME - 3 Month** MCX Copper April13 Zinc LME - 3 Month** Zinc MCX - April13 Lead LME - 3 Month** Lead MCX April13 Nickel LME - 3 Month** Nickel MCX April13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month** Aluminum MCX April13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1458.29 1455.60 27100.00 23.65 28.23 45114 96.16 104.35 5237 7321.50 402.70 1869.00 101.40 2015 109.30 15283 836.80 1885.00 102.30

1461.86 1459.30 27116.0 23.90 23.75 45175 96.24 104.45 5245 7416.25 407.30 1889.00 102.20 2033 110.60 15440 842.00 1904.00 103.20

1431.96 1436.00 26875.0 23.30 23.455 44704 95.53 103.73 5216 7275.25 401.10 1865.00 100.90 2004 108.90 15240 834.60 1872.00 101.80

1435.30 1436.00 26905.00 23.36 23.715 44790 95.53 103.88 5235 7342.00 406.40 1866.25 101.50 2007 109.95 15335 838.70 1875.00 102.20

-1.54 -2.23 -0.96 -1.23 -0.69 -0.83 -0.89 -0.56 0.15 0.20 0.94 -0.47 0.40 -0.83 0.32 -0.34 0.41 -0.86 0.00

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | May 10, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metal, base metal and crude oil prices to trade on the negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with weak economic data from UK. Further, investors will keep an eye on Fed chairman Bernanke speech which may keep prices under pressure. However, optimistic global market sentiments along with rise in German export and import data may cushion sharp downside in the prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 10 May 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold June'13 Spot Gold Silver May13 Spot Silver Brent Crude April13 Crude Oil April13 Nymex Crude Oil May13 Natural Gas May13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc May13 Lead May13 Aluminum May13 Nickel May13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 26648 1426 43800 22.84 5620 5185 94.7 212.4 7200 399.6 99.65 107.7 101 828 Support 1 26700 1430 44280 23.21 5648 5213 95.2 214.9 7270 401.9 100.8 108.65 101.6 834 CMP 26791 1437 44666 23.46 5428 5233 95.55 216.4 7343 405.25 101.35 109.4 102.05 839.5 Resistance1 26934 1448 44887 23.67 5704 5262 96.1 219.7 7420 407.3 102.1 110.7 103.2 842 Resistance 2 27051 1457 45277 23.97 5720 5303 96.85 222.7 7497 409.7 102.55 111.5 103.8 848

Important Events for Today

Indicator Current Account New Loans Trade Balance G7 Meetings FOMC Member Evans Speaks Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks FOMC Member George Speaks Federal Budget Balance Country Japan China UK All US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 10 -15
th th

Actual 0.34T -9.1B -

Forecast 0.48T 770B -8.9B 93.9B

Previous 0.00T 1060B -9.4B -106.5B

Impact High Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium

2:00pm Day 1 5:55pm 7:00pm 11:30pm 11.30pm