Platts l 6th hAnnual lCrude d Oil il Summit

London,14May2013

OECD/IEA2013

A pivotal time in oil markets

mb/d 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World Supply Capacity Growth

Medium-Term Oil Market Balance

OECD/IEA2013

Demand: rise of the non-OECD region

7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5% -5.0% 2000 2004 OECD 2008 2012 Non-OECD 2016

Global Oil Demand Growth

OECD/IEA2013

Transport still drives oil use

but transport gas is around the corner

Global Road Transport Sector

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1990 Gasoline 2000 2010 2015 LPG 2018 Others
5 000 1998 10 000 15 000

Gasoline Demand, Demand kb/d

2002 OECD

2006

2010

2014

2018

Diesel

Natural gas

Non-OECD

OECD/IEA2013

US & Iraq lead supply growth

mb/d 10 8 6 4 2 0 OPEC*

Global Liquids Growth 2012-18

Crude NGLs Biofuels US Light Tight Oil Non-Conv Processing Gain

8.4
0.5 2.0 2.3 2.8

6.0 2.4
06 0.6 1.8 1.4 2.3 1.0

Non-OPEC

Total

*O OPEC Cc crude ude is s capac capacity ty add additions to s Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC

OECD/IEA2013

New trends in capital expenditures Tightoil, oil deepwaterspendingontherise

Annual Capex by Oil Type
100% 90% 80% 500 600

Share of Capex (% %)

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Total Capex (RHS) Other Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

400 300

14% 22%

200 100 -

7% 16%

Source: IEAAnalysisofRystadEnergy.Oil depositsonly.

OECD/IEA2013

$Billion $

Non-OPEC supply: West Side story

mb/d 14 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -1.0

1995
NAM Africa

Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change

1998
LAM

2001

2004

2007
OECD EUR Other Non-OPEC

2010
FSU Total

2013

2016
China

PG & Biofuels

OECD/IEA2013

OPEC capacity growth hits hurdles

Growth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d

mb/d 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 04 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 06 -0.6 -0.8

Change in OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Iran Iraq UAE Saudi Arabia Oth Other T t l OPEC Total

OECD/IEA2013

Mid. East leads OPEC capacity growth

Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran decline

Incremental OPEC Crude P d ti Capacity Production C it 2012-18 2012 18

Iraq Angola UAE Nigeria Lib Libya Venezuela Kuwait Algeria Qatar E Ecuador d Saudi Arabia Iran mb/d -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6

OECD/IEA2013

Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d

mb/d 25 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 00 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of Global Biofuels Brazil Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels US Biofuels

OECD/IEA2013

Rise of the non-OECD refining titans Global CDU capacity seen up by 9.5 mb/d; refining capacity gets more sophisticated
Regional Share of CDU Expansions

China 45%

Other Asia 14%

Latin America 14% Other 5% Middle East 22%

China leads CDU additions

OECD/IEA2013

N. American refining: focus on upgrading & desulpherisation

mb/d 0.5 0.4 0.3 02 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3

North American Capacity Additions

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Crude Distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation

Latin America still an import magnet

OECD/IEA2013

Crude trade contracts, flows shift AtlantictoPacifictradeedgesup

Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*
(million barrels per day) *E Excludes l d Intra-Regional I t R i l Trade T d

0.3 (+0.1)
OECD Europe

2.9
(-1.4) ( )

North America

3.1
(-0.6)

1.4 (+0.7) 1.3

(-0.3)

OECD Pacific

0.7
(+0.3)
China

3.9
(-0.9)

0.3
(-0.8) ( )

Other Asia

2.9 1.6
(+0.4) (0.3)

1.2
-0.3

1.5 1.7
(-1) (+0.8)

6.2
(+0.8)

0.5
(+0.4)

0.5
Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-18
(+0)

OECD/IEA2013

N. American imports plunge

OriginofNorthAmericanCrudeImportsin2012and2018
( (million barrelsperday) )
2012 2018

0.3 0.3 1.1 2.7

0.2

1.7 1.2 1.5

Middle East Latin America Africa Others Middle East Latin America Africa Others

OECD/IEA2013