Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
April 2013
Summary Notes
Home price growth continued in March, foreclosures continued to decrease, and sales slowed.
The economy provided mixed signals about the future direction of housing.
We discuss the effect of foreclosure decreases on home price growth.
Home price growth was positive in 38 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Home price growth was positive in 36 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Home price growth was positive in 37 of the 42 reported counties over the year.
Sales increased in 10 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Sales increased in 6 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Sales increased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.
Foreclosures decreased in 28 of the 42 reported counties over the last month.
Foreclosures decreased in 30 of the 42 reported counties over the last quarter.
Foreclosures decreased in 29 of the 42 reported counties over the last year.
Housing Outlook
Economic recovery and job growth prospects were positive at the start of each of the last three years.
These signs of growth were followed by poor numbers in the spring and summer. The pattern appears
to be repeating in 2013 as employment grew by a dismal 88,000 jobs in March. Concerns about the
continued strength of the recovery and job security, tax increases, and uncertainty about domestic fiscal
issues are dampening economic growth and will eventually contribute to eventual reductions in demand
for housing.
Factor
Demand
for Housing
Comment
The level of economic activity
Current Situation
The March employment report was
disappointing.
Employment rose by only 88,000 jobs.
Strict mortgage credit requirements
continue.
Supply of
Housing
Uncertainty
Latest Quarter
Latest Year
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Increasing Foreclosures
Decreasing Foreclosures
Source: DataQuick
What is surprising is that the markets with decreasing foreclosures and elevated home price growth
include markets in California, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada that experienced the worst of the housing
downturn. Its interesting how quickly prices have started to recover in these markets. This pattern of
behavior is behind these home price patterns.
1.
2.
3.
4.
While, to date, these markets have demonstrated tremendous resiliency, the next step is that investors
will move to other markets and the rate of home price growth for these markets will return to rates that
can be sustained by the underlying economies in these markets.
County
MARICOPA
PIMA
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
RIVERSIDE
SACRAMENTO
SAN BERNARDINO
SAN DIEGO
SANTA CLARA
DENVER
FAIRFIELD
BROWARD
DUVAL
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
PALM BEACH
PINELLAS
FULTON
COOK
DUPAGE
MIDDLESEX
MONTGOMERY
OAKLAND
JACKSON
ST. LOUIS
MECKLENBURG
CLARK
QUEENS
SUFFOLK
CUYAHOGA
FRANKLIN
MULTNOMAH
SHELBY
DALLAS
HARRIS
SALT LAKE
FAIRFAX
KING
Metro
Phoenix
Tuscon
Oakland
Richmond
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Jose
Denver
New York
Ft. Lauderdale
Jacksonville
Tampa
Ft. Myers
Miami
Orlando
Palm Beach
Clearwater
Atlanta
Chicago
Chicago
Boston
Washington, DC
Detroit
Kansas City
St. Louis
Charlotte
Las Vegas
New York
Long Island
Cleveland
Columbus
Portland
Memphis
Dallas
Houston
Salt Lake
Washington, DC
Seattle
Notes:
1. Source: DataQuick
2. Reported sales data do not include new construction.
Latest Month
1.46%
0.46%
0.65%
1.04%
0.69%
0.45%
0.43%
1.20%
0.93%
0.49%
1.34%
0.14%
-0.52%
0.61%
0.03%
0.27%
0.90%
0.37%
0.66%
1.03%
0.31%
0.02%
0.08%
-0.41%
0.15%
0.38%
0.94%
0.57%
0.57%
0.18%
0.90%
0.14%
0.04%
-0.19%
0.31%
0.71%
-0.08%
0.17%
0.17%
0.46%
0.11%
0.57%
Latest Year
23.70%
8.00%
13.05%
13.59%
10.51%
8.69%
9.92%
16.82%
11.43%
10.41%
13.47%
0.86%
-6.31%
8.09%
4.56%
3.32%
11.76%
6.05%
8.81%
7.08%
6.00%
-0.64%
0.17%
-3.68%
1.31%
4.61%
15.26%
3.91%
3.91%
1.64%
14.83%
0.03%
0.40%
-2.78%
4.14%
8.41%
-2.12%
1.14%
1.14%
7.23%
3.27%
9.33%
Latest Month
-5.45%
6.29%
-0.84%
-25.26%
-32.00%
-39.17%
-36.38%
-37.47%
-33.66%
-12.93%
-41.03%
-35.19%
-39.58%
-6.84%
-40.03%
26.75%
47.89%
-6.68%
-22.14%
-14.46%
13.94%
0.00%
-14.03%
14.00%
293.33%
-6.67%
-4.14%
-28.19%
-45.88%
55.88%
-0.51%
-3.91%
-26.67%
23.47%
35.69%
34.48%
43.12%
-26.94%
-41.19%
12.09%
0.00%
-5.04%
Latest Year
-48.36%
-15.08%
-55.81%
-56.04%
-50.00%
-59.63%
-59.96%
-56.13%
-54.00%
-48.31%
-68.06%
-41.99%
-3.33%
-14.17%
15.10%
13.78%
5.46%
15.80%
-18.93%
-27.74%
40.30%
-31.30%
11.11%
20.42%
321.43%
-56.92%
-23.22%
-26.44%
-36.11%
20.45%
-10.14%
-58.12%
266.67%
102.81%
84.52%
-62.86%
-6.40%
-45.85%
-42.15%
-47.69%
-49.09%
44.26%
Latest Month
-2.77%
0.98%
-35.85%
-2.83%
-42.97%
-44.24%
-16.32%
-33.05%
-14.73%
-2.67%
-60.23%
-46.92%
-13.05%
-31.05%
-20.88%
-13.66%
9.67%
-9.47%
0.23%
7.62%
-5.85%
0.00%
-18.41%
-31.73%
46.58%
-40.79%
-65.14%
-19.03%
-25.43%
-78.60%
0.00%
-8.91%
3.28%
-25.24%
-20.09%
-25.43%
8.15%
-18.73%
-9.52%
-23.78%
0.00%
-33.42%
Latest Year
-14.66%
0.73%
-5.08%
-12.18%
-3.85%
0.90%
-17.49%
-16.32%
-14.49%
-3.14%
-15.45%
0.13%
14.57%
13.87%
18.05%
16.55%
-1.07%
16.51%
9.53%
14.04%
24.54%
21.78%
21.03%
14.32%
27.83%
10.87%
-13.08%
9.29%
10.60%
-36.18%
28.67%
-31.95%
31.99%
8.46%
17.39%
5.39%
13.12%
5.93%
13.21%
-6.41%
16.05%
9.60%
County
MARICOPA
PIMA
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
RIVERSIDE
SACRAMENTO
SAN BERNARDINO
SAN DIEGO
SANTA CLARA
DENVER
FAIRFIELD
BROWARD
DUVAL
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MIAMI-DADE
ORANGE
PALM BEACH
PINELLAS
FULTON
COOK
DUPAGE
MIDDLESEX
MONTGOMERY
OAKLAND
JACKSON
ST. LOUIS
MECKLENBURG
CLARK
QUEENS
SUFFOLK
CUYAHOGA
FRANKLIN
MULTNOMAH
SHELBY
DALLAS
HARRIS
SALT LAKE
FAIRFAX
KING
Metro
Phoenix
Tuscon
Oakland
Richmond
Los Angeles
Orange
Riverside
Sacramento
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Jose
Denver
New York
Ft. Lauderdale
Jacksonville
Tampa
Ft. Myers
Miami
Orlando
Palm Beach
Clearwater
Atlanta
Chicago
Chicago
Boston
Washington, DC
Detroit
Kansas City
St. Louis
Charlotte
Las Vegas
New York
Long Island
Cleveland
Columbus
Portland
Memphis
Dallas
Houston
Salt Lake
Washington, DC
Seattle
Notes:
1. Source: DataQuick
2. Reported sales data do not include new construction.
Current Month
126
111
118
116
156
147
117
106
133
129
141
119
109
122
110
113
112
130
111
117
117
127
96
104
121
149
84
96
96
112
91
134
134
86
95
139
88
121
121
112
156
134
Prior Year
102
103
104
102
141
135
106
90
120
117
124
118
117
113
106
109
101
122
102
110
110
128
96
108
120
142
73
92
92
110
79
134
134
88
92
128
90
120
120
105
151
123
Current Month
1041
321
118
142
597
132
404
272
402
229
46
105
29
436
442
578
386
447
334
349
376
281
760
171
59
28
324
242
230
53
195
614
11
505
441
39
395
320
564
102
28
264
Foreclosures
Previous Month
1101
302
119
190
878
217
635
435
606
263
78
162
48
468
737
456
261
479
429
408
330
281
884
150
15
30
338
337
425
34
196
639
15
409
325
29
276
438
959
91
28
278
Prior Quarter
1604
486
173
225
973
227
790
472
693
335
74
189
49
509
736
258
272
481
302
425
340
358
799
180
14
25
338
294
425
46
226
610
15
476
519
55
341
513
892
103
28
178
Prior Year
2016
378
267
323
1194
327
1009
620
874
443
144
181
30
508
384
508
366
386
412
483
268
409
684
142
14
65
422
329
360
44
217
1466
3
249
239
105
422
591
975
195
55
183
Current Month
6065
916
756
849
4010
1528
2433
1437
1874
1833
699
520
567
1736
958
1259
1292
1447
1327
1510
1094
1074
2021
542
657
782
895
883
1113
500
1104
3009
335
840
876
586
933
1975
3678
820
541
1194
Sales
Previous Month
6233
907
1027
873
5733
2204
2830
1912
2150
1882
1120
764
641
2275
1158
1431
1167
1584
1324
1395
1158
1074
2393
714
351
1101
1478
1051
1396
893
1104
3277
324
1052
1052
735
857
2345
4028
1015
541
1593
Prior Quarter
7174
1100
1239
1125
5170
2004
2847
1893
2285
2262
1107
777
611
1781
1158
1251
1313
1581
1154
1481
1251
1125
2392
789
575
1049
1468
883
1396
959
1287
3214
322
1182
1242
742
1044
2395
4459
1077
860
1865
Prior Year
7117
908
819
986
4209
1510
2931
1746
2205
1904
870
519
478
1489
749
1052
1306
1186
1217
1302
787
829
1518
429
497
668
1087
801
965
847
735
4036
232
740
660
546
796
1833
3089
889
403
1015