Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Development Studies
Associates (DSA)
October 2008
Addis Ababa
Table of Contents
1.Executive Summary...................................................................................3
2.Service Description and Application........................................................3
3.Market Study, School Capacity and Service Delivery Program............4
3.1Market Study...............................................................................................................4
3.1.1Present Demand and Supply................................................................................4
3.1.2Projected Demand..............................................................................................61
3.2School Capacity........................................................................................................66
3.3Service Program........................................................................................................66
8.Financial Analysis....................................................................................69
8.1Underlying Assumption ...........................................................................................69
8.2Investment.................................................................................................................70
8.3Service Costs.............................................................................................................71
8.4Financial Evaluation.................................................................................................72
1. Executive Summary
This profile envisages the establishment of high school (s) in Amhara Region to enroll
550 students.
The present demand for standard high schools in urban centers of the Region, mainly in
zonal towns, is very crucial.
The total investment requirement is estimated at Birr 2.1 million out of which 56.2% is
for furniture and equipment.
The plant will create employment opportunities for 19 persons.
The project is financially viable with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 17.9% and a net
present value (NPV) of Birr 1.0 million discounted at 18%.
and the rest will use the services of state or public institutions. This is what is happening
mainly in Addis Ababa to day in the areas of health and education.
Education is key to change and progress, therefore, the Government of
Ethiopia has adopted a new Education Sector Development Policy and
Program in 1994 to make this sector as one of the pillars for poverty
reduction and benefit of the masses. In line with the Government
Policy and Program, the Amhara Reginal Government has developed its
own Policy and Program.
Market Study
3.1.1 Present Demand and Supply
The general education supply and standards of the Amhara Region in relation to the
country is presented bellow.
Table 1 indicates that the ratio of total school age population to total population is about
24.8% and the ratio of the total enrolled students to the total population is about 13.2 %,
which is below the developing world standard of 15%, while the ratio of the total enrolled
students to total school age population is about 53.4%, which indicates that about 47% of
the school age population of the country did not enroll in 1994 E.C.
At Regional level, Tigray has the highest gross enrollment ratio (GER) in both Primary
(77.6%) and Secondary (38.3%) schools among the six populated Regions (excluding
Addis Ababa), followed by SNNPR (67.1%) and then by Oromia (62.4%) in Primary
schools and vice versa in Secondary Schools (15.9% in the latter and 13.2% in the
former). Whereas Amhara Region has very poor GER both in primary (58.1 % ) and
secondary (12.0%) education which is last third in both cases from Somali and Afar
Regions.
The present low enrollment rate of the region is directly related to the supply sides of
educational inputs. The existing 25,657 sections which are supposed to serve 1,282,850
school age children are obliged to enroll 655,198 extra students.
The very high gross enrollment ratio exhibited in Gambella and Benshangul Gumuz
seems that students enrolled are above the school age population.
The number of Existing Primary and Secondary Schools and Students Enrolled by
Regions in 1994 E.C is indicated bellow in table 2. There were a total of 12,087 Primary
(of which 619 are non-government) and 435 Secondary (of which 54 are Nongovernment) Schools in the country during 1994 E.C. with a total of 117,308 class rooms
of which 108,888 are Primary serving 7,982,760 students and 8,420 Secondary sections
serving 684,630 students.
Table -1Population, school Age Population and Enrollment Ratio By Region (1994 E.C.)
Population in 000
No
Gender
parity
IndexP
upil
teacher
RatioPu
pil
Section
RatioSo
urce:
11
D.
DawaPri
mary
(7-14)
61Secon
dary
(15-16)
4Primary
(1-8)
37996Secondary
46.9%
2 shifts
(9-10)
DSA,
ANRS'
potential
Assessme
nt
Survey,
Educatio
n Sector
final
Report,
2006.
Unit199
6/97199
7/98199
8/99199
9/00200
0/01200
1/02200
2/03200
3/04200
4/05Gro
ss
Enrollm
ent
Ratio
%5.96.7
7.48.18.
38.013.0
513.871
9.3Net
Enrollm
ent
Ratio9.
8Gross
Particip
ation
6
Rate620
9361.37
5.11208
9455798
2760684
6301088
8884207
3.381.3S
ource:
Educati
on
Statistic
s
Annual
Abstrac
t, 1994
E.C
(2001/0
2)82.5S
econdar
y1Tigra
y3,7977
8117272
2809023
77.638.3
2Afar1,
2432455
9345569
512.64.2
3Amhar
a16,748
3,38174
3119986
2565758
.112.04
Oromia
23,0234,
7591,05
1225274
4017762
.415.95S
omalia3
,797813
1945253
147413.
12.36B.
7
Gumuz
5511152
55977
% of
Qualifie
d
Teacher
s
Gross
Enrollm
ent
Ratio
*About
83% of
the
populati
on
age
15 to 16
are out
of
the
educati
on
system.
A.
Access
Out
of
106
Woreda
s in the
Amhara
Nationa
l
Regiona
8
State
27
Woreda
s do not
have
seconda
ry
schools.
In
the
period
1996/97
2000/01,
the
average
annual
student
number
growth
was
14.62%
(male
14.9,
females
14.2)
while
number
of
teacher
average
annual
9
growth
was
only
1.6%.
The
average
annual
growth
rate for
gross
enrollm
ent
ratio
was
10.1%
(male
10.0
and
female
9.9).
Pupil
section
ratio
grew by
14.0%
and
6.8%
respecti
vely.
Availab
le
10
informa
tion
indicate
s that to
meet
the goal
of
increasi
ng
access
to
educati
on
the
ANRS
has
planned
to
constru
ct
481
lower
primary
schools,
upgrade
220
primary
schools,
expand
2,024
classroo
ms
in
existing
11
overcro
wded
schools,
maintai
n
and
expand
other
facilities
.
The
task of
constru
ction
requires
technica
l skills,
capital
and
immens
e work,
which
requires
the
particip
ation of
the
private
sector
investm
ent.
B.
12
Equity
Equity
is
expecte
d
to
address
the
questio
n
of
gender
and
zonal
gaps.
In
2003/04
the
gross
particip
ation
was
13.71%
(17.7%
male,
9.57%
female).
The
zonal
disparit
y
in
provisio
n
of
13
seconda
ry
educati
on
is
shown
in table
4.
The
disparit
y
among
the
zones
above
the
regional
average
reads
as;
Bahir
Dar(50.
1%,
South
Wollo(1
0.3%),
North
Gonder
(9.7%),
Awi(9.6
%) and
North
14
Shewa
(8.8%).
On the
other
end,
zones
below
the
regional
average
are;
Oromiy
a
(4.0%),
Wag
Himera
(4.1%),
West
Gojjam
(5.5%),
South
Gonder
(5.9%),
North
Wollo
(6.1%)
and
East
Gojjam
(7.6%).
The
15
gender
parity
index is
highest
at
North
Gonder
zone
and
lowest
at
South
Wollo,
Oromiy
a
and
North
Wollo
zones.
Table
4:
Suppl
y and
indica
tors
of
Secon
16
dary
Educa
tion
for
2000/
01 by
Zone
Zone
In
the
Amhara
Region,
the
provisio
n
of
social
services
by
the
private
sector is
almost
nonexistent.
However
,regional
informat
ion
indicates
that
NGOs
are
particip
ating
mainly
17
in basic
educatio
n
program
s. In the
region
there are
16
accredit
ed
and
14
pre-
accredit
ed
private
colleges
located
in
towns.
Their
capacitie
s
are
4,952
(accredit
ed
colleges)
and
3,154
(preaccredit
ed
colleges).
Out
of
the
figures
18
3,705
(74.82%
accredit
ed) and
2,289
(72.57%
-
pre-
accredit
ed)
designat
ed
for
10+1
teacher
training
program
s and the
remaini
ng 1,247
(25.18%
accredit
ed)
places
are
assigned
for other
fields of
study.
Moreove
r, there
are also
one
TTC,
19
two
TTIs,
131
CSTCs
and
20
middle
level
TVET
institutio
ns in the
region.
These
institutio
ns could
not meet
the
human
resource
demand
of
the
region.
The
project
idea
of
private
high
schools
in
the
region
stems
from the
fact that
such
20
high
schools
are
in
great
need by
many
parents
in
the
major
urban
centers,
like
Bahir
Dar,
Gondar,
DessieCombolc
ha,
Debre
Birhan
and
Debre
Markos
to make
a private
high
school a
financial
ly viable
and
rewardi
ng
venture.
.
21
The
quality,
access,
equity
and
efficienc
y of the
existing
educatio
nal
service
delivery
system
of
the
country
are
in
general
below
standard
. A brief
look
of
educatio
n service
delivery
of
the
Amhara
Region
especiall
y
with
referenc
e
to
Seconda
ry level
is
22
indicate
d below.
The new
Educatio
n Policy
of
Ethiopia
(1994)
sets the
followin
g
norm
for
this
level
of
educatio
n.
Second
ary
Educatio
n will be
of
four
years
duration
,
consistin
g of two
years of
general
secondar
y
educatio
n which
will
enable
23
students
identify
their
interest
for
further
educatio
n,
for
specific
training
and for
work.
General
educatio
n will be
complete
d at the
first
cycle
(grade
10). The
second
cycle
secondar
y
educatio
n
and
training
will
enable
students
to
choose
subjects
24
or areas
of
training
which
will
prepare
them
adequat
ely
for
higher
educatio
n
and
for
work)
The
compreh
ensive
secondar
y
educatio
n (grade
9+10) is
meant
for
15
and
16
year age
groups.
Since
this
is
the
terminat
ion
of
general
25
educatio
n, those
who
complete
the level
are
expected
to
join
the
medium
&
interme
diate
technical
vocation
al
skill
training
program
s which
provide
three
level
certificat
ion
dependi
ng
on
training
duration
. Hence,
10+1,
10+2 &
10+3
entitle
certificat
26
e level 1,
certificat
e level 2
and
diploma
respectiv
ely.
Higher
secondar
y
educatio
n (grade
11 & 12)
designed
for 17 &
18 year
age
group.
If
successf
ul
the
group is
to
pursue
tertiary
educatio
n. Table
3 shows
trends of
secondar
y
educatio
n in the
27
ANRS.
Table
3:
Trends
Secon
dary
Educat
ion in
the
AARS
Indicator
s
Fem
aleT
otal
Wes
t
Gojj
am6
.3
4.75
.50.
752
865
042
49A
wi1
0.19
.19.
60.9
467
540
674
1Ea
st
Gojj
am
8.46
.87.
60.8
498
053
505
3No
rth
Goj
am1
0.07
.58.
Male
Female
Total
28
80.7
406
835
293
5Or
omi
ya4.
93.0
4.00
.641
625
410
0551
095
(26.2
%)
Wat
er52
.6%
Clini
c TV
prog
ram
s---10.9
11.4
13.7
117.
0
*Nu
mbe
r of
Scho
olsN
o778
0818
1828
5879
9110
Num
ber
of
Teac
hers
No2,
2642
,194
2,28
62,2
692,
4152
,746
2,58
72,7
29
313,
865
Teac
her
Stud
ent
Rati
oNo
1:32
1:40
1:43
1:50
1:50
1:43
1:43
1:42
1:56
Secti
on
Stud
ent
Rati
oNo
1:62
1:70
1:71
1:77
1:79
1:77
1:66
1:58
1:73
Text
book
Stud
ent
Rati
o1:1
1:11
:1Re
petit
ion
Rate
%11
.439.
808.
16D
rop
out
Rate
%16
:051
4:02
11:2
9Pro
moti
30
on
Rate
%72
.527
6:52
80.5
5Nu
mbe
r of
Stud
ents
No7
5,77
887,
4329
8,42
8110
,970
120,
1071
19,6
9710
5,25
3131
,519
169,
993S
choo
l
Facil
ities
6986
Regi
onSc
hool
Enr
ollm
entS
ectio
nsSt
uden
t/sec
tion
Pri
mar
ySec
onda
ryPr
imar
ySec
onda
ryPr
imar
ySec
onda
ryPr
31
imar
ySec
onda
ry1T
igra
y926
4158
8941
7228
0902
3903
65.3
80.0
2Afa
r142
7291
2434
5569
5324
1.91
08.0
3Am
hara
2975
8519
4804
8119
9862
5657
1556
75.9
77.1
4Or
omia
4592
1392
9467
9022
5274
4017
7283
573.
379.
55So
mali
regi
on
2721
4106
5725
2531
4743
972.
3134
.76B
..Gu
32
muz
2751
2102
0095
9771
7359
158.
865.
77S
NNP
R23
5284
1770
4191
1452
7222
2412
7179
.790.
18G
amb
ella1
4374
0497
2069
6543
661.
957.
49H
arra
ri48
4272
7164
0251
4805
3.18
0.01
0A.
Aba
ba30
3583
8509
3122
4216
1151
4846
3.01
7358
9.11
6.67
SNN
PR1
2,90
32,6
4458
3114
33
5272
2224
67.1
13.2
8Ga
nbel
a217
4010
2069
6541
02.7
16.7
9Ha
rrari
1662
6764
0251
4107
.559.
610
A.A
baba
2,57
0364
1321
2242
1611
5128
.469.
311
D.D
awa
3305
4156
9866
2080
.233.
2Tot
al65,
3451
3,22
22,9
9268
4630
1088
8861
.617.
1Sou
rece:
Edu
catio
n
Stati
stics
Ann
ual
34
Abst
ract,
1994
E.C
(200
1/02)
Pri
mar
y
Shif
t
Syst
em
2,448
Lat
rine
1024
(24.5
Lib
rary
2722
(65.1
%)
Ped
a
Cen
ter
Out
of
the
tota
35
l
sch
ools
,
3,06
0
are
loca
ted
in
Am
har
a
Reg
ion,
of
whi
ch
2,97
5
and
85
are
Pri
mar
y
and
Sec
ond
ary
sch
36
ools
,
res
pect
ivel
y.
The
Pri
mar
y
sch
ools
hav
e a
tota
l of
25,6
57
sect
ions
serv
ing
1,94
8,04
8
stu
den
ts
whi
le
the
37
Sec
ond
ary
sch
ools
hav
e
1,55
6
Sect
ions
serv
ing
119,
986
stu
den
ts.
In
the
sam
e
tabl
e
we
can
also
loo
k at
the
38
stu
den
tsect
ion
rati
o of
eac
h
Reg
ion.
In
this
res
pect
,
stu
den
ts
per
sect
ion
in
Pri
mar
y
Sch
ool
are
hig
her
39
in
Am
har
a
Reg
ion
(75.
9)
nex
t to
SN
NP
R
(79.
72)
am
ong
pop
ulat
ed
Reg
ions
.
But
stu
den
ts
per
sect
ion
in
40
Sec
ond
ary
Sch
ools
are
hig
her
in
So
mal
i
Reg
ion
(13
4.7)
Foll
owe
d
by
Afa
r
(10
8.0)
.
Am
har
a
Reg
ion
is
41
8th
wit
h
77.1
stu
den
t
sect
ion
rati
o.
Tab
le2No
of
Pri
mar
y
and
Sec
ond
ary
Sch
ools
and
Stu
den
ts
Enr
42
olle
d
by
Reg
ion
(19
94
E.C
)
No.
Reg Tigray
996
393
44820
17685
ion
Pri
mar
y
(714)
Sec
ond
ary
(1518)
Clas
s
roo
mPr
ima
ryse
con
dary
Cou
43
ntry
total
172
026
624
774
090
298
080
16.9
4.85
.90.
746
703
603
5No
rth
Gon
dor
9.01
0.36
.71.
153
893
714
36B
ahir
Dar
59.2
43.1
50.1
44
0.75
586
526
454
Reg
ion9
.17.
48.3
0.85
079
423
341
Sou
rce:
DSA
,
ANR
S'
pote
ntial
Asse
ssme
nt
Surv
ey,
Educ
ation
Sect
or
final
Repo
rt,
2006
.
45
Sou
th
Wol
lo12
.28.
410.
30.6
538
043
164
2No
rth
Wol
lo7.
74.5
6.10
.660
793
225
32
Wa
g
Hu
mer
a4.5
3.74
.10.
850
774
504
3So
46
uth
Gon
dor
Mal
e
C.
Qu
alit
y
Qua
lity
in
edu
cati
on
is a
nec
essit
y
whi
ch
nee
ds
to
be
refl
ecte
d in
goal
s,
47
cont
ent,
lear
ning
envi
ron
men
t,
proc
esse
s,
mod
e of
asse
ssm
ent
plus
inte
rnal
effi
cien
cy
and
teac
her
qual
ifica
tion
etc.
Our
edu
48
cati
on
syst
em
suff
ers
fro
m
lack
of
alm
ost
all
the
qual
ity
mea
sure
s.
The
aver
age
ann
ual
gro
wth
rate
of
stud
ent
pop
49
ulati
on
in
the
peri
od
199
6/97
200
0/01
was
14.6
2%,
whil
e
that
of
teac
hers
was
only
1.6
%.
Pup
il
teac
her
rati
o
also
50
gre
w
by
14.0
%
in
the
sam
e
peri
od,
whil
e
pupi
l
sect
ion
rati
o
incr
ease
d by
6.8
%.
This
mea
ns
mor
e
stud
ents
51
per
sect
ion
&
per
teac
her
affe
ctin
g
qual
ity
neg
ativ
ely.
In
the
peri
od
und
er
con
side
rati
on
regi
onal
ly
perc
ent
of
52
qual
ifie
d
teac
hers
was
41
%
mal
e &
33
%
fem
ale).
59
%
of
the
teac
hing
forc
e in
the
seco
ndar
y
leve
l is
und
er
qual
53
ifie
d.
The
afor
eme
ntio
ned
pro
ble
ms
cou
pled
with
shor
tage
and
poo
r
qual
ity
of
instr
ucti
onal
mat
erial
s
add
to
the
inad
54
equ
acy
of
seco
ndar
y
edu
cati
on
qual
ity
in
the
regi
on.
D.
Eff
icie
ncy
Inte
rnal
effi
cien
cy
coul
d be
mea
sure
d
amo
55
ng
othe
r
thin
gs
by
revi
ewi
ng
tren
ds
in
repe
titio
n
rate,
dro
pout
rate,
pro
mot
ion
rate
and
grad
uati
on
rate.
The
seco
nd
56
edu
cati
on
dev
elop
men
t
pro
gra
m
(ES
DP200
3200
5)
of
the
AN
RS
has
set
targ
ets
for
thes
e
imp
orta
nt
mea
57
sure
s of
inte
rnal
effi
cien
cy,
Exc
ept
for
grad
uati
on
rate.
Thu
s,
pro
mot
ion
rate
will
be
rais
ed
to
80.5
5%
(20
04/0
5)
fro
58
m
72.5
2%
in
200
2/03
.
Rep
etiti
on
rate
and
dro
p
out
rate
shal
l be
decr
ease
d
fro
m
11.4
3%
in
(20
02/0
3)
to
8.16
59
%
in
(20
04/0
5)
and
fro
m
in
16:0
5%
in
(20
02/0
3)
to
11:2
9%
in
200
4/05
resp
ecti
vely
.
In
gen
eral
the
curr
ent
60
edu
cati
on
perf
orm
anc
e of
the
Reg
ion
dem
and
s an
over
all
imp
rove
men
t
with
priv
ate
sect
or
part
icip
atio
n.
3.1.2
Projecte
61
Sust
aina
ble
dev
elop
men
t is
abo
ut
enh
anci
ng
hum
an
well
bein
g
thro
ugh
time
and
hen
ce
the
im
62
2
Afar
280
119
3
Amhara
4393
1703
4
Oromia
6113
2384
5
Somalia
896
403
6
Ben.Gumuz
140
58
7
SNNPR
3595
1316
8
Gambella
50
19
9
Harrari
38
14
10
Addis Ababa
411
183
11
Dire Dawa
82
29
Source: Population and Housing Census, Country level 1994 E.C.
12600
197685
275085
40320
6300
161775
2250
1710
18495
3690
5355
76635
107280
18135
2610
59220
855
630
8235
1305
In addition assessments of the state of education in the ANRS made by the DSA, has
revealed the following gaps existed in the areas of the educational delivery system in the
region.
Level of Literacy
The national literacy rate level is 29.2% and that of ANRS stands
at 23.1%. Gaps are 70.8% nation wide and 76.9% for ANRS.
Kindergarten Education
Regions coverage of KG education is only 1.4% with a very high
gap of 98.6%
Teacher Education/Training
2000/01 figures in teaching force qualification in the region have
indicated that 3.4% (first cycle primary), 66.3% (second cycle
primary) and 58.6% secondary (both cycles) were under qualified
and/or unqualified. For 2005/06 alone there will be shortage of
12,768 teachers for all levels.
TVET
63
Non-Formal Education
Plays very important role in provision of basic education in the
inaccessible areas to increase participation rate at the primary
level.
Special Education
Meant to serve people with disabilities.
Construction
Can facilitate or constrain access in education depending in its
availability or shortage.
In general, therefore, in order to provide sufficient and quality education in the Region,
the participation and
The proposed school will cater to the needs of children of medium and
high income groups. Currently three categories of schools are being
run in Ethiopia, catering to three main segments of the market, mainly
higher medium and low-income groups. The schools, which serve the
high and medium income groups, are run by the private sector. They
usually charge high fees per month per student and these schools
have large facilities, enjoy repute due to their modern system of
education by using scientific techniques and have qualified and
specialized faculty. Most private schools in Addis Ababa fall in the
medium category having fee range from Birr 200.00 to Birr 500.0 per
month per student. The third category (medium range) provides
facilities even less than the minimum required by the Ministry of
Education, i.e. less space per student (minimum required 12 sq. ft. per
student and high student teacher ratio.
Parents are curious about the future of their children so they think
extensively before admitting their children in any school. Following are
the main factors (not conclusive) on the basis of which parents make
choice of schools.
1. Distance from home
2. School track record/history
3. General reputation
4. Fees
5. Qualification and experience of the head of school and other faculty.
6. Physical infrastructural facilities.
7. Courses offered and medium of instruction.
Besides the above, there are some other subjective, social and status
considerations which also play an important role in making decision.
In these respect the proposed school is assumed to be of medium
category and fulfills the best standards of its kind, its service charge
65
could be Birr 200.00 per month per student, which is Birr 2,000.00 per
annum excluding annual registration fee.
3.2
School Capacity
The capacity of the proposed high school is assumed to enroll about 550 students at full
capacity.
3.3
Service Program
Reasonable time is required to promote the importance of private school and thus attract
parents towards the school. Therefore, the proposed school is assumed to start operation
at 50% capacity in the first year, 65% in the second year 75% in the third year, 85% in
the fourth year and 100% thereafter.
All essential school furniture and equipments such as computers, desks, blackboards,
cupboards and chalk are available locally.
4.2
The total cost of school facilities is estimated at about Birr 794,000 of which Birr 50,000
and 15,000 are costs of utilities and office furniture, respectively.
Table- 6- Required Furniture and Equipment
Furniture &
Equipment
Computers
Server
Printers (Laser)
Printers (Dot Matrix)
UPS
Quantity
Price/Unit
Total (Birr)
20
1
1
1
2
10,000
60,000
5,000
8,000
3,000
200,000
60,000
5,000
8,000
6,000
66
150,000
300,000
50,000
15,000
794,000
- The school
- registers students at the beginning of each year/semester,
- allocates teaching periods to each teacher,
- provides teachers with necessary teaching materials (text
books, chalks etc)
- Each teacher
- prepares weekly, monthly and annually lesson plan,
- delivers /lectures his lesson plans as per schedules,
- gives home works as required and corrects,
67
6.2
private high schools are required to supply extra and timely teaching
materials so as to develop the all rounded development of enrolled
students.
6.3
Private high schools do not have large student population. Average size of a private high
school is about 500 students. For a private high school of 550 students, about 9000m 2 of
land is required of which 800m2 could be for building class rooms, library, and laboratory
and office buildings. The total construction and civil engineering cost of the school
building is estimated to be Birr 1,200,000.00 at Birr 1500.00 per meter square. Land lease
for social services is assumed to be 25% of normal charge.
Human Resource
The proposed high school will require the following minimum staff.
Table -7- Required Human Resource
Position
Faculty Members
Subject specialist
Senior Teachers
Junior Teachers
Administrative
staff
Principal
Accountant
Numb
Salary/month/per
Salary/
er
son
annum
2
3
5
2000
1500
1200
48,000
54,000
72,000
1
1
2500
1000
30,000
12,000
68
Librarian
Secretary
Guards
Cleaner
Total
7.2
1
1
3
2
19
750
800
400
350
9,000
9,600
14,400
8,400
275,400
Training Requirement
8. Financial Analysis
8.1
Underlying Assumption
The financial analysis of high school project is based on the data provided in the
preceding sections and the following assumptions.
69
2 years
Source of finance
Tax holidays
2 years
12%
18%
Value of land
3% of fixed investment
B. Depreciation
Building
5%
10%
Office furniture
10%
Vehicles
20%
Pre-production (amortization)
20%
8.2
Raw Material-Local
30 days
Raw Material-Foreign
120 days
30 days
30 days
Work in Progress
Finished Products
Accounts Receivable
Cash in Hand
Accounts Payable
10 days
15 days
30 days
30 days
30 days
Investment
The total investment cost of the project including working capital is estimated at Birr 2.1
million as shown in table 8 below. The Owner shall contribute 40% of the finance in the
form of equity while the remaining 60% is to be financed by bank loan.
Table 8: Total initial investment
70
Cost
6,750.00
1,200,000.00
15,000.00
Vehicles
0.00
729,000.00
1,950,750.00
97,537.50
2,048,287.50
86,473.45
2,134,760.95
8.3
Service Costs
The total service cost at full capacity operation is estimated at about Birr 883 thousands
(see Table 9). Wages and salaries account for 31.2%.
Table -9- Total Service Cost
0.00
2. Utilities
3. Wages and Salaries
50,000.00
275,400.00
58,522.50
383,922.50
5. Depreciation
153,907.50
6. Financial costs
346,064.22
883,894.22
71
8.4
Financial Evaluation
I.
Profitability
According to the income statement of the project, the school project will generate profit
starting from the second year of operation.
II.
Breakeven Analysis
The break even point of the project is estimated by using income statement projection.
The Project breaks-even breaks evens at 32.7% of capacity utilization.
III.
Payback Period
The project will pay back fully the initial investment in the sixth year.
IV.
The simple rate of return of the project at full capacity utilization is 20.5%.
V.
Based on the cash flow statement, the calculated IRR of the project is 17.90% and the
NPV at 18% discount rate is over Birr 1.0 million.
VI.
Sensitivity Analysis
earlier. It will Improve the standard of education to be given to students who can attend
these schools, produce students with strong academic background and with high potential
to go to higher education. In general the envisaged project promotes the socio-economic
goals and objectives stated in the strategic plan of the Amhara National Regional State.
These benefits are listed as follows :
A. Profit Generation
The project is found to be financially viable and earns on average a profit of Birr 0.30
million per year and Birr 3.0 million within the project life. Such result induces the
project promoters to reinvest the profit which, therefore, increases the investment
magnitude in the region.
B. Tax Revenue
In the project life under consideration, the region will collect about Birr 1.2 million from
corporate tax payment alone (i.e. excluding income tax, sales tax and VAT). Such result
creates additional fund for the regional government that will be used in expanding social
and other basic services in the region.
C. Employment and Income Generation
The proposed project is expected to create employment opportunity for 19 professionals
as well as support stuff. Consequently the project creates income of Birr 275 thousand
per year. This would be one of the commendable accomplishments of the project.
D. Pro Environment Project
The proposed production process is environment friendly.
E. Diversification and InterSectoral linkage.
The proposed project helps to diversify ANRS and Ethiopian economy. It contributes to
industrialization of the region as well as the countys economy.
73
ANNEXES
74
PRODUCTION
Year 1
Year 2
0.00
0.00
75%
85%
100%
0%
1. Total Inventory
0.00
0.00
1430015.96
1620684.76
1906687.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
355090.91
402436.36
473454.55
0.00
Raw Material-Local
0.00
0.00
355090.91
402436.36
473454.55
0.00
Raw Material-Foreign
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8618.68
9767.83
11491.57
0.00
0.00
0.00
64814.73
73456.69
86419.64
0.00
Work in Progress
0.00
0.00
215466.91
244195.84
287289.22
0.00
Finished Products
0.00
0.00
430933.83
488391.67
574578.44
0.00
2. Accounts Receivable
0.00
0.00
1963636.36
2225454.55
2618181.82
0.00
3. Cash in Hand
0.00
0.00
227511.65
257846.54
303348.87
0.00
0.00
0.00
3266073.07
3701549.48
4354764.10
0.00
4. Current Liabilities
0.00
0.00
1963636.36
2225454.55
2618181.82
0.00
Accounts Payable
0.00
0.00
1963636.36
2225454.55
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
1302436.71
1476094.94
1736582.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
1302436.71
173658.23
260487.34
-1736582.28
CURRENT ASSETS
(continued)
PRODUCTION
5
10
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
1906687.95
1906687.95
1906687.95
1906687.95
1906687.95
1906687.95
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
473454.55
Raw Material-Foreign
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11491.57
11491.57
11491.57
11491.57
11491.57
11491.57
86419.64
86419.64
86419.64
86419.64
86419.64
86419.64
Work in Progress
287289.22
287289.22
287289.22
287289.22
287289.22
287289.22
Finished Products
574578.44
574578.44
574578.44
574578.44
574578.44
574578.44
2. Accounts Receivable
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
3. Cash in Hand
303348.87
303348.87
303348.87
303348.87
303348.87
303348.87
4354764.10
4354764.10
4354764.10
4354764.10
4354764.10
4354764.10
4. Current Liabilities
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
Accounts Payable
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
2618181.82
1736582.28
1736582.28
1736582.28
1736582.28
1736582.28
1736582.28
1736582.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
CURRENT ASSETS
PRODUCTION
Year 1
Year 2
13863150.00
15599732.28
19963636.36
20661818.18
24392727.27
-2618181.82
13863150.00
15599732.28
1963636.36
261818.18
392727.27
-2618181.82
Total Equity
5545260.00
6239892.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8317890.00
9359839.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1963636.36
261818.18
392727.27
-2618181.82
2. Inflow Operation
0.00
0.00
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
Sales Revenue
0.00
0.00
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
Interest on Securities
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13863150.00
13863150.00
13727821.73
11926383.93
16505664.06
286902.48
13863150.00
13863150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13203000.00
13203000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
660150.00
660150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3266073.07
435476.41
653214.61
-4354764.10
6. Operating Costs
0.00
0.00
5700688.04
6423291.77
7507197.38
281160.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3631190.90
0.00
8. Interest Paid
0.00
0.00
4761060.63
2121327.52
1767772.94
1414218.35
9. Loan Repayments
0.00
0.00
0.00
2946288.23
2946288.23
2946288.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Surplus(Deficit)
0.00
1736582.28
6235814.63
8735434.25
7887063.21
-2905084.30
0.00
1736582.28
7972396.91
16707831.15
24594894.36
21689810.06
3. Other Income
Fixed Investments
Pre-production Expenditures
PRODUCTION
5
26618181.82
6
24000000.00
7
24000000.00
8
24000000.00
9
24000000.00
10
24000000.00
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total Equity
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2. Inflow Operation
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
Sales Revenue
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
19712237.12
15204202.82
14956714.60
11762938.17
11762938.17
11762938.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Fixed Investments
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pre-production Expenditures
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4354764.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6. Operating Costs
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
3843323.66
4043608.03
4149674.41
4255740.79
4255740.79
4255740.79
8. Interest Paid
1060663.76
707109.17
353554.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
9. Loan Repayments
2946288.23
2946288.23
2946288.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Surplus(Deficit)
6905944.69
8795797.18
9043285.40
12237061.83
12237061.83
12237061.83
28595754.76
37391551.94
46434837.34
58671899.17
70908961.01
83146022.84
Interest on Securities
3. Other Income
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW
4. Increase In Fixed Assets
PRODUCTION
Year 1
Year 2
0.00
0.00
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
1. Inflow Operation
0.00
0.00
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
Sales Revenue
0.00
0.00
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
Interest on Securities
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13863150.00
13863150.00
7003124.74
6596950.00
11398875.63
-1455422.28
13863150.00
13863150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Fixed Investments
13203000.00
13203000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
660150.00
660150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1302436.71
173658.23
260487.34
-1736582.28
5. Operating Costs
0.00
0.00
5700688.04
6423291.77
7507197.38
281160.00
0.00
13863150.00
13863150.00
13863150.00
13863150.00
0.00
13863150.00
27726300.00
11748432.20
25611582.20
0.00
0.00
3631190.90
0.00
10996875.26
16729424.74
13803050.00
12601124.37
1455422.28
-2926374.74
9674749.63
11130171.91
7897784.59
17713797.62
8400962.37
6499519.77
636178.49
-9312835.25
-2813315.49
-2177136.99
2. Other Income
Pre-production Expenditures
(Continued)
PRODUCTION
TOTAL CASH INFLOW
10
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
1. Inflow Operation
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
Sales Revenue
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13087103.32
11550805.41
11656871.79
11762938.17
11762938.17
11762938.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Fixed Investments
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pre-production Expenditures
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1736582.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5. Operating Costs
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
7507197.38
3843323.66
4043608.03
4149674.41
4255740.79
4255740.79
4255740.79
10912896.68
12449194.59
12343128.21
12237061.83
12237061.83
12237061.83
22043068.59
34492263.18
46835391.39
59072453.22
71309515.06
83546576.89
4042481.12
3908113.82
3283743.16
2758919.88
2338067.70
1981413.30
1865344.12
5773457.95
9057201.11
11816120.99
14154188.69
16135601.99
Interest on Securities
2. Other Income
TOTAL CASH OUTFLOW
16,135,601.99
32.0%
75%
85%
100%
0%
100%
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
24000000.00
18000000.00
20400000.00
24000000.00
0.00
24000000.00
Other Income
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5029432.04
5700022.97
6705909.38
0.00
6705909.38
12970567.97
14699977.03
17294090.62
0.00
17294090.62
72.06
72.06
72.06
#DIV/0!
72.06
3292316.00
3344328.80
3422348.00
2902220.00
3422348.00
9678251.97
11355648.23
13871742.62
-2902220.00
13871742.62
54
56
58
#DIV/0!
58
4761060.63
2121327.52
1767772.94
1414218.35
1060663.76
5. GROSS PROFIT
4917191.34
9234320.70
12103969.68
-4316438.35
12811078.86
0.00
0.00
3631190.90
0.00
3843323.66
4917191.34
9234320.70
8472778.78
-4316438.35
8967755.20
Gross Profit/Sales
27%
45%
50%
#DIV/0!
53%
27%
45%
35%
#DIV/0!
37%
Return on Investment
33%
39%
35%
-10%
34%
Return on Equity
42%
78%
72%
-37%
76%
1. Total Income
Sales Revenue
VARIABLE MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
3. Less Fixed Costs
OPERATIONAL MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
10
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
24000000.00
Other Income
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6705909.38
6705909.38
6705909.38
6705909.38
6705909.38
17294090.62
17294090.62
17294090.62
17294090.62
17294090.62
72
72
72
72
72
3108288.00
3108288.00
3108288.00
3108288.00
3108288.00
14185802.62
14185802.62
14185802.62
14185802.62
14185802.62
59
59
59
59
59
707109.17
353554.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
5. GROSS PROFIT
13478693.45
13832248.03
14185802.62
14185802.62
14185802.62
4043608.03
4149674.41
4255740.79
4255740.79
4255740.79
7. NET PROFIT
9435085.41
9682573.62
9930061.83
9930061.83
9930061.83
Gross Profit/Sales
56%
58%
59%
59%
59%
39%
40%
41%
41%
41%
Return on Investment
34%
34%
34%
34%
34%
Return on Equity
80%
82%
84%
84%
84%
1. Total Income
Sales Revenue
VARIABLE MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
3. Less Fixed Costs
OPERATIONAL MARGIN
(In % of Total Income)
4. Less Cost of Finance
RATIOS (%)
Year 1
13863150.00
Year 2
29462882.28
PRODUCTION
1
36343709.98
2
42893560.64
3
48812778.46
4
43248308.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13863150.00
0.00
13203000.00
660150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13863150.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
8317890.00
8317890.00
0.00
5545260.00
5545260.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1736582.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1736582.28
0.00
27726300.00
13203000.00
13203000.00
1320300.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
29462882.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
17677729.37
17677729.37
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11238469.98
428524.31
215466.91
430933.83
1963636.36
227511.65
7972396.91
0.00
25105240.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
2621060.00
0.00
0.00
36343709.98
1963636.36
1963636.36
0.00
17677729.37
17677729.37
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
0.00
4917191.34
0.00
4917191.34
20409380.64
485660.89
244195.84
488391.67
2225454.55
257846.54
16707831.15
0.00
22484180.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
5242120.00
0.00
0.00
42893560.64
2225454.55
2225454.55
0.00
14731441.14
14731441.14
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
4917191.34
9234320.70
0.00
9234320.70
28949658.46
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
24594894.36
0.00
19863120.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
7863180.00
0.00
0.00
48812778.46
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
14151512.04
8472778.78
0.00
8472778.78
21689810.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
21689810.06
0.00
17242060.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
10484240.00
0.00
4316438.35
43248308.41
0.00
0.00
0.00
8838864.68
8838864.68
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
22624290.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
9
80656725.10
75263725.10
10
90586786.94
87500786.94
Continued
PRODUCTION
TOTAL ASSETS
1. Total Current Assets
5
47571518.86
32950518.86
6
54060316.04
41746316.04
7
60796601.43
50789601.43
8
70726663.27
63026663.27
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
28595754.76
0.00
14621000.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
13105300.00
0.00
0.00
47571518.86
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
5892576.46
5892576.46
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
18307852.47
8967755.20
0.00
8967755.20
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
37391551.94
0.00
12314000.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
15412300.00
0.00
0.00
54060316.04
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
2946288.23
2946288.23
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
27275607.67
9435085.41
0.00
9435085.41
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
46434837.34
0.00
10007000.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
17719300.00
0.00
0.00
60796601.43
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
36710693.08
9682573.62
0.00
9682573.62
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
58671899.17
0.00
7700000.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
20026300.00
0.00
0.00
70726663.27
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
46393266.71
9930061.83
0.00
9930061.83
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
70908961.01
0.00
5393000.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
22333300.00
0.00
0.00
80656725.10
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
56323328.54
9930061.83
0.00
9930061.83
571365.75
287289.22
574578.44
2618181.82
303348.87
83146022.84
0.00
3086000.00
26406000.00
0.00
1320300.00
24640300.00
0.00
0.00
90586786.94
2618181.82
2618181.82
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11785152.91
11785152.91
0.00
0.00
66253390.37
9930061.83
0.00
9930061.83
10