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Outline
(1) Dynamic regression models for stationary variables.
Long-run solution.
(5) Empirical example: ADL for consumption and income.
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()
0 = 1 = 0: AR(1) model Yt = + Yt1 + t. = 1 = 0: Static regression IID errors: Yt = + 0Xt + t. 1 = 0: Static regression with AR(1) errors. The specication + 0Xt + ut with ut = ut1 + 1 implies the COMFAC model Yt = Yt = + Yt1 + 0Xt 0Xt1 + t.
t
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Dynamic Multipliers
From the equations Yt = Yt+1 = Yt+2 = we can nd the dynamic
Yt Xt Yt+1 Xt Yt+2 Xt Yt+3 Xt Yt+k Xt
t t+1 t+2
= = = = . . =
t+1 = Y Xt t+2 = Y Xt
Yt = X + 1 = 0 + 1 t
= (0 + 1) = 2 (0 + 1) k1 (0 + 1) .
Yt+k 0 as k . Xt
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0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
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Long-Run Multiplier
Now consider a permanent shift in Xt, so that E [Xt] is changed. The nal eect in Yt is the long-run multiplier, given by the accumulated eect Yt Yt Yt Yt+1 Yt+2 Yt + + + ... = + + + ... Xt Xt1 Xt2 Xt Xt Xt = 0 + (0 + 1) + (0 + 1) + 2 (0 + 1) + ... = 0 1 + + 2 + ... + 1 1 + + 2 + ... + 1 . = 0 1 As an alternative derivation of the long-run eect, take expectations Yt = + Yt1 + 0Xt + 1Xt1 + t E [Yt] = + E [Yt1] + 0E [Xt] + 1E [Xt1] E [Yt] (1 ) = + (0 + 1) E [Xt] + 1 + 0 E [Xt]. E [Yt] = 1 1
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General Case
Consider the general case ADL(p,q): (L)Yt = + (L)Xt + t,
where
Under stationarity, the long-run solution can be found as Yt = 1(L) + 1(L)(L)Xt + 1(L) E [Yt] = 1(L) + 1(L)(L)E [Xt] .
t
Since E [Yt] = E [Yt1] = LE [Yt] and E [Xt] = E [Xt1] = LE [Xt] we nd the long-run multiplier
1(1)(1) =
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Y t =0.5 Yt 1 +0.8 X t +0.2 Xt 1 + t Y t =0.8 Yt 1 +0.8 X t +0.2 Xt 1 + t Y t =0.5 Yt 1 +0.8 X t +0.8 Xt 1 + t Y t =0.5 Yt 1 +0.8 X t 0.6 Xt 1 + t
+ Yt1 + 0Xt + 1Xt1 + t + ( 1)Yt1 + 0Xt + 1Xt1 + t + ( 1)Yt1 + 0(Xt Xt1) + (0 + 1)Xt1 + + ( 1)Yt1 + 0Xt + (0 + 1)Xt1 + t
Yt = 0Xt (1 ) Yt1
+ 1 0 Xt1 + 1 1 | {z } | {z }
Yt Yt = Yt Xt.
sigma 0.0170843 R^2 0.17001 log-likelihood 351.917 no. of observations 132 mean(dc) 0.00333392
Apart from outliers, the model is reasonably well specied: AR 1-5 test: ARCH 1-4 test: Normality test: RESET test: F(5,123) F(4,120) Chi^2(2) F(1,127) = = = = 0.65106 0.87746 31.888 2.4628 [0.6612] [0.4797] [0.0000]** [0.1191]
The long-run solution is derived in PcGive: Solved static long-run equation for dc Coefficient Std.Error Constant 0.00241977 0.001152 dy 0.241946 0.07313 where
0 + 1 0.228831 + 0.0924352 = = 0.24195. 1 1 + 0.327845 The standard error is a complicated function of the covariances. =
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Consumption growth 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 -0.05 1970 1980 1990 2000
Income growth
-0.05 1970
1980
1990
2000
Residuals 2.5 0.0 -2.5 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 0.2
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