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DB Corp
Performance Highlights
Quarterly Results (Consolidated)
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT 4QFY13 398 94 23.6 55 4QFY12 353 73 20.6 45 % yoy 12.7 29.4 304bp 21.8 3QFY13 439 119 27.2 71 % qoq (9.3) (21.1) (355)bp (21.9)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Media 4,502 (79) 0.4 261/181 28,051 10 20,286 6,187 DBCL.BO DBCL@IN
`246 `285
12 Months
For 4QFY2013, DB Corp (DBCL) reported a robust performance on the earnings front, registering a 21.8% yoy growth to `55cr (in-line with our expectations), aided by reduction in losses in emerging editions from `18.5cr in 4QFY2012 to `5.8cr in 4QFY2013. Key highlights for the quarter: For 4QFY2013, DBCL posted healthy 12.7% yoy growth in its top-line to `398cr. Advertising revenue grew by 13.1% yoy to `298cr, primarily driven by higher yields. Sectors such as lifestyle, FMCG, real-estate and automobile, among others, have contributed to strong growth in advertising. National advertising, which has been subdued in last few quarters, has also grown by ~12% yoy (due to increase in government advertising). The company also reported strong growth of 18.2% yoy in circulation revenue to `73cr (driven by both cover price hike as well as increase in circulation). Among the other segments, the companys radio business reported a robust advertising revenue growth of 24.2% yoy to `19cr. At the operating level, EBITDA grew by 29.3% yoy to `94cr on account of reduction in losses of emerging editions as well as cost rationalization measures such as improving ad edit ratio, and pagination efficiency, among others. Consequently, the OPM expanded by 304bp yoy to 23.6% and net profit grew by 21.8% yoy to `55cr. Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, DBCL is trading at 14.6x FY2015E consolidated EPS of `16.8. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a revised target price of `285, based on 17x FY2015E EPS, benchmarking it to our print media sector valuations (which are at ~15% premium to our Sensex target valuation multiple). The downside risks to our estimates include 1) sharp rise in newsprint prices in INR terms, and 2) higher-than-expected losses/increase in the breakeven period of the new launches.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 5.5 14.5 5.1
3m 4.0 2.8
4QFY13 398 134 33.6 101 25.4 69 17.4 304 94 23.6 2 15 9 86 21.6 31 35.7 0 55 14 0 55 18.3 3.0
4QFY12 353 130 36.8 89 25.3 61 17.3 281 73 20.6 2 13 11 68 19.3 23 33.7 0 45 13 0 45 18.3 2.5
% yoy 12.7 2.7 13.2 13.4 8.4 29.4 (8.5) 15.9 (15.8) 26.0 33.3
3QFY13 439 145 33.0 103 23.4 72 16.5 320 119 27.2 2 15 4 106 24.2 35 33.2 (0)
% qoq (9.3) (7.6) (1.3) (4.4) (4.9) (21.1) 16.8 140.3 (19.0) (12.9)
FY2013 1,592 545 34.2 392 24.6 280 17.6 1,216 376 23.6 8 58 21 331 20.8 113 34.2 0
FY2012 1,451 508 35.0 364 25.1 243 16.7 1,115 336 23.2 9 51 24 301 20.7 98 32.7 (0) 202 14 202 18.3 11.0
21.8
71 16 0
(21.9)
218 14 0
8.0
21.9 21.8
71 18.3 3.9
(21.8) (21.9)
8.0 8.0
11.2
12.7
20.0
18.0 16.0
350
300
11.3
6.2
14.0
12.0
(` cr)
200 150
353 352 351 395 374 439
353 378
8.0 6.0
398
100 50
4.0 2.0
80 70 60 50
( ` cr) (%)
12.8
17.3
11.5
14.0 12.8
16.1
5.4
(0.2)
10.9
250
( ` cr)
200 150
12.9
14.9
15.0
10.0 5.0
100
250 271 275 287 263 270 283 318
50
298
2.0
(5.0)
NPM (RHS)
(%)
40
10.0
(%)
250
10.0
64.5
65.8
63.2
66.4
17.3
12.8 11.5
14.0 12.8
70 60 50
( ` cr)
16.1
10.9
12.9
(%)
28.1
19.8
24.1
20.6
19.7
22.8
27.2
23.6
10.0 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
2.0
4Q13
EBITDA
OPM
NPM (RHS)
(%)
40
10.0
Investment rationale
Well-planned aggression in business edges DBCL over peers: DBCL, though a dominant No. 2 player in the overall regional print space (trailing behind Jagran Prakashan), enjoys a premium valuation to its peers - Jagran Prakashan (flagship daily Dainik Jagran) and Hindustan Media Ventures (flagship daily Hindustan). We attribute the reason for this trend to DBCLs business model (which is primarily driven by ad revenue) and well thought-out launches in new markets. We believe the companys continuous endeavor to diversify its print business coupled with aggressive expansion into new markets (urban towns beyond metros) backed by exhaustive market research and focus on achieving leadership are the key factors differentiating the company from its peers. The company has been successful in executing its expansion plans with launches in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
180%
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Sensex
DB Corp
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Company Background
DB Corp is one of the largest print media companies in India that publishes 8 newspapers with 65 editions, and 199 sub editions in 4 multiple languages across 13 states in India. The companys flagship newspaper Dainik Bhaskar, Divya Bhaskar and Saurashtra Samachar have a combined average daily readership of ~19 million, making them one of the most widely read newspaper groups in India with presence in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Jammu. The companys other noteworthy newspaper brands are Dainik Divya Marathi, Business Bhaskar, DB Gold, DB Star and DNA on a franchise basis.
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0%
250
200 150
100
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 1,058 1,058 1,058 10.4 720 328 249 132 12 338 133.8 31.9 38 300 159.7 28.4 25 5 1.9 281 258.9 0 280 106 37.6 175 (8) 183 183 283.5 17.3 10.1 10.0 283.9 1,260 1,260 1,260 19.1 862 383 279 185 16 398 17.7 31.5 43 354 18.1 28.1 15 19 5.4 359 27.9 2 357 98 27.4 259 0.3 259 260 42.2 20.6 14.1 14.1 41.4 1,451 1,451 1,451 15.2 1,115 508 350 243 15 336 (15.4) 23.2 51 286 (19.4) 19.7 9 24 8.0 300 (16.2) 300 98 32.7 202 0 202 202 (22.4) 13.9 11.0 11.0 (21.9) 1,593 1,593 1,593 9.8 1,216 540 392 280 5 377 12.1 23.7 58 318 11.5 20.0 8 21 6.4 332 10.5 332 113 34.2 219 219 219 8.2 13.7 11.9 11.9 8.2 1,750 1,750 1,750 9.9 1,310 568 415 312 16 440 16.8 25.1 63 377 18.5 21.6 8 19 4.9 389 17.2 389 128 33.0 261 261 261 19.2 14.9 14.2 14.2 19.2 1,925 1,925 1,925 10.0 1,412 597 456 343 16 513 16.5 26.6 69 444 17.6 23.1 6 21 4.6 459 18.1 459 152 33.0 308 308 308 18.1 16.0 16.8 16.8 18.1
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 182 1 466 649 4 321 61 183 3 643 829 0 172 69 26 3 1,035 660 112 547 61 39 21 561 193 103 266 207 354 13 1,035 1,100 783 149 634 41 33 16 63 557 173 71 313 255 302 10 1,100 183 5 739 927 2 180 75 30 4 1,216 906 191 715 45 33 46 87 610 136 106 367 329 281 9 1,216
FY2013E 183 844 1,028 1 137 83 33 1,282 996 250 746 55 37 81 85 622 119 65 438 349 273 6 1,282
FY2014E 183 1,019 1,202 1 127 83 33 1,447 1,080 312 768 86 37 106 99 690 187 76 427 346 344 6 1,447
FY2015E 183 1,241 1,424 1 97 83 33 1,639 1,188 381 807 95 37 128 99 822 259 94 469 356 466 6 1,639
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 281 38 (14) 25 101 2 229 (38) 3 (34) 251 (242) 42 13 (48) 147 45 193 359 43 (24) 15 98 0 295 (103) 4.22 (99) 2 (149) 69 1 (216) (20) 193 173 300 51 (73) 9 98 0 189 (127) (29.73) (157) 0.55 8 80 (2) (69) (36) 173 136
FY2013E 332 58 (44) 8 113 0 241 (99) (34.69) (134) (43) 86 (4) (125) (18) 136 119
FY2014E 389 63 (17) 8 128 (12) 301 (117) (25.00) (142) (10) 86 (4) (92) 68 119 187
FY2015E 459 69 (51) 6 152 (11) 321 (117) (22.00) (139) (30) 86 (6) (110) 72 187 259
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)
previous year numbers
FY2010 24.6 20.2 6.9 0.8 4.4 13.7 4.5 10.1 10.0 12.2 2.0 35.7 28.4 0.6 1.3 22.4 0.0 1.0 45.7 31.4 35.6 40.3 1.6 25 67 59 56 0.2 0.3 12.2
FY2011 FY2012 17.4 14.9 5.5 1.3 3.5 11.2 4.0 14.1 14.1 16.5 3.2 44.7 28.1 0.7 1.4 29.1 0.0 0.1 31.2 33.2 38.3 35.0 1.6 21 70 22 55 (0.0) (0.0) 23.7 22.3 17.8 4.9 1.5 3.1 13.3 3.7 11.0 11.0 13.8 3.7 50.1 19.7 0.7 1.5 19.2 0.0 (0.0) 19.0 24.7 26.5 23.0 1.6 30 62 27 57 (0.0) (0.0) 31.0
FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 20.6 16.2 4.4 1.6 2.8 11.8 3.5 11.9 11.9 15.1 4.0 55.7 20.0 0.7 1.4 18.7 0.0 (0.0) 18.1 25.5 27.4 22.4 1.6 30 63 22 55 (0.1) (0.2) 40.8 17.3 13.9 3.8 1.6 2.5 9.9 3.0 14.2 14.2 17.6 4.0 65.2 21.6 0.7 1.4 20.9 0.0 (0.1) 18.8 27.6 30.0 23.4 1.6 26 63 25 53 (0.1) (0.4) 49.4 14.6 11.9 3.2 1.6 2.2 8.3 2.6 16.8 16.8 20.5 4.0 77.3 23.1 0.7 1.5 22.5 0.0 (0.2) 18.7 28.8 32.2 23.4 1.6 26 63 24 58 (0.2) (0.6) 76.0
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
DB Corp. No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11