Page 1 of 8 EMM5622, RISK ANALYSIS IN ENGINEERING EXAM II

Ramin Shamshiri

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 2 of 8 Question 1 A project schedule network has two paths of tasks needed to compute the total time to complete the project. They are either or as shown by the following time functions

Compute the probability of (

) by calculating the reliability index ( ) using

a. First-order reliability method b. Advanced second-moment method The noncorrelated random variables are assumed to have the following probabilistic characteristics:
Random Variable Mean Value Coefficient of Variation Distribution Type

1 5 4 3 10

0.25 0. 50 0.05 0.20 0.25

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal

Solution a:

( (

) )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Coefficient of Variation:

( ( ( ( ( Also ; ( )

)( ) )( ) )( ) )( ) )( ( ) ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 3 of 8

It can be seen than

Random Variable

Mean Value

Coefficient of Variation

Standard Deviation

1 5 4 3 10

0.25 0. 50 0.05 0.20 0.25

0.25 2.5 0.2 0.6 2.5

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 4 of 8 Solution b:

) (

Solving Solving Random Variable

( ) ( )
Mean Value

( ) ( )

( ) ( )

yields yields
Standard Deviation Directional Cosines for T1 ( ) Directional Cosines for T2 ( )

Coefficient of Variation

1 5 4 3 10 ( ( ( (

0.25 0. 50 0.05 0.20 0.25 )( )( )( )) ( )( )( )( (

0.25 2.5 0.2 0.6 2.5 ) ) ) )( )(

0.09919 0.697139 0.079352 0.9919 0.167313 0.697139

)(

)(

))

)(

)(

))

5.951394

( ( ( (

)( )( )( )) (

)( )( )( (

) ) ) )( )( )) ( ( )( )( ))

)(

)(

5.019404
It can be seen than

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 5 of 8 Question 2 Describe four engineering systems that can be modeled using the black-box method. What are the inputs and outputs for each system? Solution: Input X SYSTEM Output Y

A schematic of the black-box system model is shown in the above figure. A structural engineer might observe the deflection of a bridge as an output of a input such as load at the middle of its span. By varying the intensity of the load, the deflection chances, hence by producing a relationship such as y=f(x) where x is an input variable, y is an input variable and f is a function that relates input to output. Example 1: Probable maximum load Input: Meteorological and Hydrological conditions Output: Flood runoff System: River Catchment Basin Example 2: Greenhouse Environmental Control Input: Heating and cooling load System: Relevant actuators Output: Environment temperature and relative humidity

Example 3: DC motor speed control Input: Variable voltage to the system Output: Speed of the motor shaft in rpm System: DC motor Example 4: Vehicle Input: Amount of gas provided to the engine Output: Speed or performance of the vehicle System: Engine and other components

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 6 of 8 Question 3 An engineer inspects a piece of equipment and estimates the probability of the equipment running at peak efficiency to be 80%. She/he then receives a report that the operating temperature of the machine has exceeded an 80C critical level. Past records of operating performance suggest that the probability of exceeding the 80C temperature when the machine is working at peak efficiency is 0.4. Also, the probability of the temperature being exceeded if the machine is not working at peak efficiency is 0.85. a. Revise the engineers initial probability estimate based on this additional information from past records b. Draw a probability tree for this situation Solution a: Event A: Exceeding 80C Event B: Running at peak efficiency ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) => ( ) => ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ( ) ( ) ) ) has occurred

Posterior probability of variables B after variable ( ( )

( )

) ( ) ( ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ( )

Total= ( ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ( )

Total= (

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 7 of 8 Solution b:

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II

Page 8 of 8 Question 4 Using the data of example 4.21 as provided in Table 4.23 (from the textbook), and assuming five identical components connected in series, compute ( ) ( ), and ( ) function for a system in series. The component hazard function is given by the following equation:

( ) Solution: ( ) ( ) ( )

Ramin Shamshiri

EMM5622, EXAM II