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CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others Abs. (%) Sensex LT 3m 2.2 3.5 1yr 25.2 30.4 36.3 21.0 42.7 3yr 22.0 (5.7) Infrastructure 93,427 7,344 1.2 1720/1106 200,322 2 20,062 6,095 LART.BO LT@IN
`1,517 `1,761
12 Months
Larsen and Toubro (L&T) posted decent set of numbers for 4QFY2013, which were broadly in-line with our expectation both on revenue and order inflows front. However, owing to higher-than-anticipated other income and lower tax rate PAT came in ahead of our estimate. L&T secured orders worth `27,929cr during 4QFY2013, taking the order book to `1,53,604cr (a growth of 5.4% yoy). Order inflows were mainly driven by major orders bagged in the infrastructure (28%), power (41%) and process (12%) segments. Performance in-line with estimates: On the top-line stood, L&T reported decent top-line growth of 9.9% yoy to `20,294cr which was in-line with our estimate of `20,303cr. The decent growth in revenues was mainly driven by pick up in execution in the engineering and construction (E&C) and machinery & industrial product segment. On the EBITDA front, performance was as per our expectations with the company reporting a yoy dip of 180bp to 12.1% in 4QFY2013 against our expectations of 12.0%. On the bottom line front, L&T reported PAT of `1,788cr a decline of 6.9% and was higher than our estimate of `1,573cr. The PAT was higher than our estimate mainly due to surge in other income and lower tax rate. Other income grew 19.2% yoy to `374cr for the quarter. Outlook and valuation: For FY2014, the management has given a guidance of 15-17% growth in revenue and 20% growth in order inflow and +/- 50bp on EBITDA margins. We believe given its robust order backlog, healthy order inflows during the past few quarters and strong execution capabilities, the company is well placed to achieve its guidance on the revenue front, given its robust order backlog. However, it would be difficult to achieve 20% growth on the order inflow front, considering the challenging macro environment. We believe L&T is best placed to benefit from a gradual recovery in the capex cycle, given its diverse exposure to sectors and a strong balance sheet. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `1,761. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (`cr) Net Sales % chg Adj.Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) OB/Sales (x) Order Inflows % chg FY2012 52,545 20.7 3,937 19.7 11.8 64.3 23.6 3.7 16.7 17.3 1.9 16.1 2.8 70,574 (11.5) FY2013E 60,373 14.9 4,132 4.9 10.5 67.5 22.5 3.2 15.2 15.2 1.6 15.7 2.5 88,035 24.7 FY2014E 68,396 13.3 4,768 15.4 10.5 77.9 19.5 2.9 15.5 15.6 1.5 14.0 2.5 98,687 12.1 FY2015E 77,435 13.2 5,408 13.4 10.5 88.3 17.2 2.5 15.6 16.0 1.3 12.5 2.4 111,432 12.9
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 Viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 20,294 17,843 2,451 12.1 281 222 374 19 2,341 553 1,788 8.8 1,769 8.7 28.9
4QFY12 18,461 15,900 2,561 13.9 121 180 314 55 2,629 708 1,920 10.4 1,865 10.1 30.5
3QFY13 15,429 13,954 1,475 9.6 238 200 437 93 1,567 445 1,122 7.3 1,029 6.7 16.8
% chg (yoy) 9.9 12.2 (4.3) (180)bp 132.1 23.2 19.2 (66.0) (10.9) (21.9) (6.9) (159)bp (5.2) (139)bp (5.2)
% chg (qoq) 31.5 27.9 66.2 252bp 18.1 10.9 (14.4) (79.9) 49.4 24.2 59.4 154bp 72.0 205bp 72.0
FY2013 60,873 54,466 6,407 10.5 982 818 1,851 248 6,705 1,794 4,911 8.1 4,132 6.8 67.5
FY2012 53,171 46,888 6,283 11.8 666 699 1,338 55 6,310 1,854 4,457 8.4 3,937 7.4 64.3
% chg 14.5 16.2 2.0 (129)bp 47.5 17.0 38.3 350.1 0.8 (3.2) 10.2 (31)bp 4.9 (62)bp 4.9
20,000
15,000
10.1
7.5 6.6 6.7 8.7
772.0
690.1
709.4
1,865
1,029
1,769
4.0
2.0 0.0
902
200 0
871
400
2.0 0.0
1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)
Segmental performance
Engineering and construction (E&C): The E&C segment, which contributed ~90% to the companys gross revenue, witnessed strong traction in order inflows and recorded revenue of `18,392cr in 4QFY2013, registering a growth of 9.5% yoy. On the margin front, EBITDAM came in at 12.2% in 4QFY2013, a decline of 230bp yoy; owing to change in job mix and high input costs. The company secured orders worth `24,917cr (up 29% yoy) and `79,766cr (up 25% yoy) in 4QFY2013 and FY2013 respectively. This was mainly from infra sector (transportation, urban & water) and power sector (particularly T&D space). Machinery and industrial products (MIP): The MIP segment continued to witness pressures from persistent headwinds, ie sluggish demand in construction and mining sectors, and increased competition. The MIPs segment reported revenues of `745cr in 4QFY2013, an increased by 9.3% yoy; mainly driven by increased in export of industrial valves. The EBITDA margin came in at 16.3% (18.6%) in 4QFY2013 and was impacted by increased input costs and intense competition. Electrical and electronics (E&E): The E&E segment reported revenues of `1,117cr mainly due to sluggish demand, continuing competitive pressures and tight liquidity. However, the EBIT margin came in at 11.2% (up 428bp), owing to better realisation and favorable product mix.
4QFY13 20,784 18,392 745 1,117 381 150 2,421 2,065 105 146 105 11.6 11.2 14.1 13.1 27.6 38,219 14,971 596 1,281 850 20,520
4QFY12 19,141 16,794 681 1,143 275 248 2,582 2,290 159 112 32 (12) 13.5 13.6 23.4 9.8 11.8 35,570 10,980 596 1,363 850 21,780
3QFY13 15,819 13,882 593 886 338 119 1,685 1,280 161 99 145 10.7 9.2 27.1 11.1 42.9 39,806 15,355 563 1,384 714 21,790
% chg (yoy) 8.6 9.5 9.3 (2.3) 38.4 (39.5) (6.2) (9.8) (34.2) 30.1 223.7 0.0 (184)bp (241) bp (1,034)bp 428bp 1,581bp 7.4 36.3 0.0 (6.0) 0.0 (5.8)
% chg (qoq) 31.4 32.5 25.5 26.0 12.5 26.0 43.7 61.3 (34.7) 47.8 (27.6) 0.0 100bp 201bp (1,403)bp 295bp (1,527)bp (4.0) (2.5) 5.9 (7.4) 19.1 (5.8)
Subsidiary performance
L&T InfoTech registers healthy performance
L&T InfoTech, the companys technology subsidiary, reported a healthy performance for 4QFY2013, registering a 24.4% yoy growth in revenue to `1,004cr. On the profitability front, the subsidiary PAT grew by 49.0% yoy to `202crin 4QFY2013, with PATM of 20.1%.
19,594
19,545
Mar-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
Mar-10
Jul-09
Sep-09
Jul-10
Sep-10
Jul-11
Sep-11
7YEAR AVG
5YEAR AVG
3YEAR AVG
On one-year forward P/E basis, historically L&T has traded at an average P/E of 22.0x, 23.0x and 23.8x over the past seven, five and three years, respectively. Thus, our implied target P/E multiple of 19.9x is way below its historical average to factor in the prevailing challenging business environment.
Jul-12
5.0
0.0 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11
Feb-06
Feb-09
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
P/E
7YEAR AVG
5YEAR AVG
3YEAR AVG
Methodology P/E P/BV P/E Mcap Basis P/E P/E P/E Mcap P/BV
Remarks 16x FY2015E Earnings L&T acq. 2.36% stake of IDFC at Rs118cr in 1QFY11 10.0x FY2015E Earnings 20% holding company discount 5x FY2015E Earnings 5x FY2015E Earnings 5x FY2015E Earnings 20% holding company discount 1x FY2015E Book Value, Mcap
` cr 81,118 5,363 5,363 16,153 6,835 9,318 3,327 98 2,000 1,230 2,399 203 2,197 108,360
% to TP 74.9 4.9 4.9 14.9 6.3 8.6 3.1 0.1 1.8 1.1 2.2 0.2 2.0 100
Oct-12
Jun-06
Jun-09
Jun-12
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-10
Jun-11
77.9 88.3
Investment arguments
Best stock to play the Indian infrastructure theme: We believe L&T is best placed to benefit from the gradual recovery in the capex cycle, given its diverse exposure to sectors, strong balance sheet and cash flow generation as compared to its peers, which grapple with issues such as strained cash flow, high leverage and limited net worth and technological capabilities.
Company background
L&T - the largest Indian infrastructure conglomerate - is present across almost all the infrastructure segments and is at the forefront of the Indian infra growth story. Over the years, the company has diversified across various segments to encash the untapped infra opportunity, not only in India but in other geographies as well, and has an excellent track record of achieving the same. Over the past 10 years (FY2002-12), L&T has reported a CAGR of 21.3% and 29.1% in its top-line and bottom-line, respectively.
13,358 14,850 15,631 60,873 68,946 78,040 5,863 1,565 6,026 2,180 6,576 2,511 6,824 2,455 7,264 2,736 7,563 2,734
10
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E 36,675 43,540 360 9.1 366 18.6 37,035 43,906 32,259 38,266 15,740 10,675 8,721 2,379 3,845 4,776 21.8 12.9 416 4,360 20.6 11.9 505 2,026 34.5 5,881 49.2 135.7 6,016 27.3 4,376 4,376 4,151 54.1 11.2 72.7 68.9 49.9 9,396 2,830 5,295 5,640 18.1 12.8 599 5,040 15.6 11.6 619 1,147 20.6 5,569 (5.3) 332.9 5,901 32.9 3,958 3,958 3,289 (20.8) 7.5 65.0 54.0 (21.6) 52,545 625 53,171 21.1 46,888 11,175 10,747 3,666 12,527 8,772 6,283 11.4 11.8 699 5,583 10.8 10.6 666 1,338 21.4 6,255 12.3 55.0 6,310 29.4 4,457 4,457 3,937 19.7 7.4 72.8 64.3 19.0 60,373 500 60,873 14.5 54,466 12,028 14,472 4,436 14,581 8,948 6,407 2.0 10.5 818 5,589 0.1 9.3 982 1,851 28.7 6,457 3.2 247.6 6,705 1,794.0 26.8 4,911 4,911 4,132 4.9 6.8 80.2 67.5 4.9 68,396 550 68,946 13.3 61,714 17,788 13,789 4,902 16,547 8,687 7,232 12.9 10.5 912 6,321 13.1 9.2 1,027 2,038 27.8 7,332 13.5 7,332 1,961.9 26.8 5,370 5,370 4,768 15.4 6.9 87.7 77.9 15.4 77,435 605 78,040 13.2 69,824 20,212 15,608 5,441 18,730 9,833 8,216 13.6 10.5 995 7,220 14.2 9.3 1,137 2,230 26.8 8,314 13.4 8,314 2,224.5 26.8 6,089 6,089 5,408 13.4 6.9 99.4 88.3 13.4
1,574 10,070
11
29,271 35,252
14,685 15,872 35,010 43,457 1,577 1,730 8,225 1,777 1,905 9,128 12,428 18,730
12
13
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.3 1.1 8.6 0.2 1.0 8.1 0.3 1.3 8.4 0.3 1.2 5.7 0.3 1.2 6.2 0.3 1.1 6.4 5.8 14 104 192 229 5.4 12 98 213 242 5.5 12 107 217 257 5.5 12 124 207 262 5.6 12 128 198 258 5.6 12 128 195 258 19.7 21.7 27.0 18.5 20.3 16.4 17.3 18.8 16.7 15.2 16.3 15.2 15.6 16.6 15.5 16.0 16.8 15.6 11.9 72.7 1.7 15.1 5.5 0.4 18.7 11.6 67.1 1.7 13.2 5.9 0.3 15.1 10.6 70.6 1.7 13.0 5.5 0.3 15.1 9.3 73.2 1.7 11.7 7.7 0.3 12.8 9.2 73.2 1.8 11.9 8.1 0.3 12.8 9.3 73.2 1.8 12.1 8.1 0.3 13.1 68.9 68.9 75.8 12.5 299.4 54.0 54.0 63.9 14.5 358.8 64.3 64.3 75.7 16.5 411.9 67.5 67.5 80.8 16.6 475.9 77.9 77.9 92.8 19.7 531.5 88.3 88.3 104.6 16.6 601.1 22.0 20.0 5.1 0.8 2.7 20.6 3.9 28.1 23.8 4.2 1.0 2.2 17.4 3.4 23.6 20.0 3.7 1.1 1.9 16.1 2.9 22.5 18.8 3.2 1.1 1.6 15.7 2.6 19.5 16.4 2.9 1.3 1.5 14.0 2.4 17.2 14.5 2.5 1.1 1.3 12.5 2.1 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
14
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
L&T No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
15