Qatar 2022 Business Opportunities

October 2012

Disclaimer
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Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending IV. Beneficiaries V.

South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014

VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

Qatars Economic Overview

Qatar's national economy is delivering an impressive buoyant performance in the midst of sluggish global conditions. GDP is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% between 2011 - 2015. Growth will benefit from high levels of investment in infrastructure, especially as work begins on projects related to the World Cup. Population growth at an annual average of ~9% will support domestic demand. The current-account surplus, which is driven by the trade surplus, will remain substantial throughout 2012-2016 averaging 27.0% of GDP a year. Third largest proven gas reserves (15% of worlds total); with current LNG production of 77 million tons per year. Qatars real economy is expected to be boosted by growing LNG exports and demand for natural gas is expected to quadruple between 2011 and 2020.

Qatar GDP Development (2006-2015F)

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
17.3% 14.1% 702

Population and GDP per Capita

880

752

14.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.5%

15%
Population (m) GDP Growth

2.5 2.0
59.4 71.3 60.4 60.3 77.8

100 80 60
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.4

GDP (QR bn)

632 463 358

6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.1%

12% 9% 6% 3% 0%

403
294 220

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Population (m)
1.1 1.3

1.8

2.0

2.2

40 20 0

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

GDP (QR bn, nominal)

Real GDP Growth

GDP per Capita (US$ '000)

With Qatar hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup, these forecasts will probably be revised upwards
Note: GDP at current prices; Source: EIU (September 2012), Press Research

GDP per Capita (USD 000)

807

18%

3.0

101.6

105.1 104.0 102.3 102.0

120

Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending IV. Beneficiaries V.

South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014

VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

Stadiums (USD 3bn) Concentration of key event facilities and venues within a compact area within a 60 km radius Seven host cities and 12 stadiums: Renovation of three stadiums and construction of nine new stadiums. Stadiums equipped with cooling systems using clean renewable energy resources to achieve the first completely carbon-neutral World Cup. Modular sections of the stadiums used to construct 22 stadiums around the world in developing countries post FIFA 2022 World Cup.

Accommodation (USD 12.4bn) Infrastructure (USD 44bn)

Team base camp hotels, etc: 64 proposed, of which 54 to be constructed. Accommodation: 240 different properties proposed (90,000 rooms), mainly in four star category. 100 properties existing, 140 planned to be constructed (55,000 rooms). Four-line metro network (340 kilometers length) including a line running from the New Doha International Airport to the centre of Doha. Rail freight line between Ras Laffan port to Mesaieed port, via Doha, and then onto Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. New port to be completed by 2014 with subsequent phases due to be finished by 2030. New airport currently under construction (expected first phase completion in 2012, second phase in 2017). The construction of Qatar-Bahrain causeway and road network improvements.

Investment proposals will have a multiplier effect on several other industries and lead to increased diversification of Qatars hydro-carbon focused economy.
Sources: Equity Research; FIFA

Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending IV. Beneficiaries V.

South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014

VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

Breakdown and Timeline of Spending

Item Cost (USD bn) 3.0 2011-2021 2012-2020 20.0 2011-2019 2011-2017 2011-2020 24.0 4.0 20.0 12.4 2011-2022 0.6 2011-2022 5.0 2011-2030 Current-2017 N/A N/A 65.0 Phase 1 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 2 2011-2015 2011-2016 Timeline 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Yearly Breakdown 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1. Stadiums (4.6%) Construction of 9 New Stadiums Renovation of 3 Stadiums 2. Transportation (30.8%) National Railway (Qatar- Bahrain) National Railway (Qatar- KSA) Metro System 3. Roads (36.9%) Qatar Bahrain MotorWay Road Systems 4. Accommodation (19.1%) 140 additional properties 5. FIFA (0.9%) FIFA confederation 2021 and 2022 6. Others (7.7%) New Doha Port Doha Airport (Remaining Work) Doha Bay Crossing Media Facilities Total Expenditures

Actual Spending likely to exceed Projected Amounts

Sources: Equity Research; FIFA

Breakdown and Timeline of Spending (Contd)

Location of Stadium Proposed Metro Rail Map

Spending by Type (Total USD 65bn)

FIFA 1% Stadiums 4% Others 8%

Accommodation 19%

Transportation 68%

Sources: Official Qatar 2022 Bid Website; Equity Research

Breakdown and Timeline of Spending (Contd)

>200 Projects announced to be initiated

35 Healthcare projects

27 Education projects
10 Social Security linked projects 11 Environment linked projects 22 Primary Infrastructure Development projects (estimated value ~ USD 50bn)

>200 Projects announced for the 1st quarter of 2011

>95 projects in other sectors

Detailed information not yet available since decision-making is ongoing Healthcare and Education are the key sectors with 62 out of 200 awarded projects
Source: Press Research; QFIB

10

Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Pre-Bid Win Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending

IV. Beneficiaries V.
South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014 VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

11

Beneficiaries
Equity Research indicates the following sectors to benefit
Banks: Financing of infrastructure projects

Education: Increase in population; 27 projects announced

Transport & Logistics: ~USD 20bn direct investments

Sectors to Benefit

Construction/ Development: ~USD 44bn direct investments

Steel/ Petrochemicals: Benefiting from increased construction activity

Other Building Material: Benefiting from increased construction activity

Healthcare: Increase in population; 35 projects announced

Telecom: Increase in population Ensure adequate infrastructure

Source: Equity Research; Press Research

Power: Increased power needs due to increase in population and construction activity

12

Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending IV. Beneficiaries V.

South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014

VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

13

South Africa World Cup 2010 Overview

Initiatives
South Africa was named to host the 2010 FIFA World Cup in May 2004. Five new stadiums were built for the tournament, and five of the existing venues were upgraded. National governments ZAR 25bn (USD 3.6bn) direct investment in infrastructure in the World Cup is part of a much larger spending programme between 2006 and 2010. Government estimated to have invested more than ZAR 600bn (USD 87bn) in the countrys infrastructure from rail freight services and energy production, to communications, airports and ports of entry. South Africa GDP Development (2003-2015F) World Cup Spending by Type (Total USD 3.6bn)

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

5.3% 4.6% 2.9%

5.6% 5.5% 3.9% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4%

6%
3.7% 3.0%

5% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% GDP Growth 4%

Others 21% Transport 35% Safety and Security 4% Ports of Entry Infrastructure 10%

GDP (USD bn)

3.5%

Bid Award

168 219 247 261 286 277 287 354 366 384 405 429 455

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 GDP (USD bn, nominal)
Source: IMF

-1.8%

Real GDP Growth

Source: FIFA

Stadiums 30%

14

South Africa World Cup 2010 GDP Contribution by Industry Comparison Qatar/South Africa (2009)
Qatar GDP Composition (2009)
1.1% 6.2% 6.5%
7.0% 7.7% 1.6%

South Africa GDP Composition (2009)

0.1%
6.2% 2.8%

2.9% 9.1%

9.1%
44.9%

15.7%

13.5%
21.5%

11.8% 12.1% Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas) (44.9%)
Government Services (12.1%)

4.0% 15.2%

Mining and Quarrying (9.1%) Government Services (15.7%) Finance and Insurance (21.5%) Manufacturing (15.2%)
Construction (4.0%)

Finance and Insurance (11.8%) Manufacturing (7.7%) Construction (7.0%) Retail (6.5%)
Transport and Communications (6.2%)

Retail (13.5%) Transport and Communication (9.1%) Electricity and Water (2.8%) Personal Services (6.2%)
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry (2.9%)
Source: Statistics South Africa

Electricity and Water (1.1%)

Personal Services (1.6%)

Agriculture and Fishing (0.1%)

Source: Qatar Statistics Authority

15

South Africa World Cup 2010 GDP Contribution by Industry (7-year period)
GDP Contribution by Industry Development since Bid Award
100%
90%

Manufacturing (-4.2%) 80% 70% 60%

50%

Transport and communication (-0.6%) Agriculture, fishing and forestry (-0.5%) Retail (-0.2%)
Personal Services (-0.1%)

40% 30%

Electricity and Water (+0.2%)

Government Services (+0.6%)

Finance and Insurance (+1.4%) 20% Mining and Quarrying (+1.7%)

10%

Construction (+1.7%)

0%

2003

2004

Manufacturing suffered the most between 2003-2009, which could be due to the Economic Crisis. Major gains in Construction (+1.7%), Mining/Quarrying (+1.7%) and Finance/Real Estate (+1.4%).
Source: Statistics South Africa

2009

2005

2006

2007

2008

16

South Africa World Cup 2010 Sectors to Benefit

Official Reports indicate the following sectors in South Africa to benefit from the South Africa World Cup

Construction
Healthcare Information and Communication Technology Sectors to Benefit Safety and Security

Tourism and Hospitality

Sports and Recreation Arts and Culture

Source: FIFA

17

Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending IV. Who will Benefit? V.

South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014

VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

18

Brazil World Cup 2014 Overview

Initiatives Brazil was awarded to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup in October 2007. Three new stadiums are going to be built for the tournament and nine of the existing venues will be renovated. In order to ensure an adequate infrastructure and organization, Brazil will invest BRL 22.46bn (USD 13.33bn) to improve the countrys infrastructure. Brazil will revitalize host cities tourism areas as well as the surrounding airport and stadium areas which will cost BRL 2.84bn (USD 1.68bn). Brazil GDP Development (2006-2015F) World Cup Spending by Type (Total USD 13.33bn)
Others 4% Media 29%

3,050 2,550 GDP (USD bn) 2,050

4.0%

Bid Award
6.1% 5.1% -0.2%

10%
7.5%

Safety 7% Transport 12%

8%
4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%

6% 4% 2% 0%

1,550 1,050 550

1,093 1,366 1,636 1,574 2,024 2,193 2,327 2,471 2,626 2,789

GDP Growth

Reurbanization 13% Stadiums 21%

50
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

-2%
Accommodation 14%
Source: Ernst & Young

GDP (USD bn, nominal)

Source: IMF

Real GDP Growth

19

Brazil World Cup 2014 GDP Contribution by Industry Comparison Qatar/Brazil (2009)
Qatar GDP Composition (2009)
1.1% 0.1%
1.6%

Brazil GDP Composition (2009)

6.2% 6.5%
7.0% 7.7%

4%
9%

6%1.3% 17%

44.9%
12%

5%

11.8% 12.1% Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas) (44.9%)
Government Services (12.1%)

31% 16%

Mining and Quarrying (1.3%)

Government Services (16.7%)

Finance and Insurance (11.8%) Manufacturing (7.7%)

Finance and Insurance (31.3%) Manufacturing (15.5%)

Construction (7.0%) Retail (6.5%)

Transport and Communications (6.2%)

Construction (5.1%)

Retail (11.9%)
Transport and Communications (8.7%) Gas, electricity and water (3.5%)

Electricity and Water (1.1%)

Agriculture and Fishing (0.1%)

Personal Services (1.6%)

Source: Qatar Statistics Authority

Agriculture and Fishing (6.1%)

Source: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

20

Brazil Sectors to Benefit

Official Releases indicate the following sectors in Brazil to benefit from the World Cup
Main Sectors Others Sectors benefiting on a smaller scale
Retail including Clothing, Accessories and Cosmetics

Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services

Construction

Agriculture, Farming and Fisheries

Oil and Natural Gas

Food and Beverages Real Estate Services and Rental

Finance and Insurance

Marketing Education Metal Goods incl. Machinery and Equipment

Sectors to Benefit Information Services

Furniture and Sundry Products Tourism and Hospitality Pharmaceuticals Public Administration and Social Security Electricity and Water
Newspapers, Magazines and CDs

Maintenance and Repair Services Other non-Metallic Mineral Products

Source: Ernst & Young

21

Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending IV. Beneficiaries V.

South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014

VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

22

Summary Impact from the successful Qatar 2022 Bid Win

Impact on Qatars Development
Current reports indicate a major push for developments and population growth within Qatar. Numerous projects will be realized that werent viable to date. The Governments willingness to support Qatars development ahead of FIFA 2022 World Cup presents tremendous opportunities for investors.

Sectors to Benefit
The immediate sectors to benefit will be Infrastructure (Transport &Logistics) and Construction/Development. Several further sectors will benefit due to ancillary development needs (Healthcare, Financial Sector, Education, Power). Multiplier effects and increase in population will magnify the economic impact on Qatars GDP in the upcoming years. Analysis of South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014 World Cups confirm these findings. The direct economic impact can hardly be compared due to different GDP dynamics of Qatar vs. South Africa/Brazil.

Investors Strategic Plan

Identify Sectors to benefit from Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup
Investment Planning

Estimate underlying demand/supply dynamics

Identify ancillary services and sub-industries to benefit

Focus on sustainable business models which benefit from increased economic activity within Qatar

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Table of Contents
I. II.
Qatars Economic Overview Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives

III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending

IV. Beneficiaries V.
South Africa World Cup 2010

VI. Brazil World Cup 2014 VII. Summary VIII. Appendix

24

Appendix Qatar Major Ongoing Projects

Qatari Power and Water Contracts Project Name Kahramaa - Ras Laffan IWPP Expansion Ashghal - Doha North Sewage Project Kahramaa - Doha Water Security Mega Reservoirs Kahramaa - South Doha D IWPP Kahramaa - Qatar Power Transmission System Expansion - Phase IX Kahramaa - Solar Power Plant Ashghal - Doha North Sewage Project - Phase 2 Ashghal - Doha North Sewage Project - Phase 4 Kahramaa - Qatar Power Transmission System Expansion - Phase X - Stage 1 KAHRAMAA - Al Duhail and Umm Qarn Reservoirs Ashghal - Abu Hamour Southern Outfall Tunnel Ashghal - Doha South Wastewater Treatment Plant - Phase II Ashghal - Doha and Rayyan Sewerage Pumping Stations Ashghal - Ain Khalid Area Trunk and Internal Sewers - Phase 2 Kahramaa - South Doha Reservoirs and Associated Pipelines Kahramaa - North Sailiyah and Vicinity Water Distribution Ashghal - Al Khor Sewerage Network Expansion - Package 2 Kahramaa - Al Wukair RPS and Associated Pipelines Kahramaa - Al Duhail and Umm Qarn New Reservoirs QP - Halul Desalination Plant and Potable Water Storage Tank Kahramaa - 66/11kV New Hitmi and Rayyan Village Substations
Source: Meed, Zawya

Value (USDm) 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 489 360 269 210 200 150 111 110 104 88 82 68 68 60 50

25
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Appendix Qatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)

Qatari Real Estate Contracts Project Name UDC - The Pearl Qatar LREDC - Lusail City Msheireb Properties - Msheireb Ashghal - 3 Mosques and Imam Houses - Package 11 Qatar CAA - Space City Establishment ADIH - Qatar Entertainment City GFH - Energy City Qatar - Phase 1 UDC - The Pearl Qatar - Viva Bahriya Qatar Foundation - Sidra Medical and Research Center Barwa Real Estate Company - Ain Khalid Commercial Avenue Bawabat Al Shamal - Doha Festival City Qatari Diar - Doha Convention Center and Tower ADIH - Qatar Entertainment City - Downtown Barwa Real Estate Company - Barwa City Barwa Real Estate Company - Barwa Financial District Ashghal - 4 Mosques and Imam Houses - Package 9 Qatari Diar Real Estate Investment Company - Fox Hills GFH - Energy City Qatar - Phase 2 Barwa Real Estate Company - Barwa Al Baraha Qatari Diar - Doha Convention Center and Tower - Convention Center Ezdan - Asia Towers Msheireb Properties - Msheireb - Phase 1-b LREDC - Lusail City - Infrastructure - Package 1 Ashghal - Hamad Medical City
Source: Meed, Zawya

Value (USDm) 14,000 5,500 5,500 3,500 3,300 3,000 2,600 2,500 2,300 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,360 1,360 1,250 1,200 1,000 1,000 740 687 650 642 534

26
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Appendix Qatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)

Qatari Real Estate Contracts (Cont'd) Project Name Qatar ISF - New Camp Ezdan - Wukair Mall QDREIC - Burj Al Marina Hotel QDREIC - Sheraton Park The Land Qatar - Perlita Gardens ARTIC - Doha City Center Expansion LREDC - Lusail City - Infrastructure Package 5B Equinox - Northgate Mall Qatar Foundation - Marina Mall QF - Qatar Foundation Central Library LREDC - Lusail City - Underground Car Parks QGIRC - World Trade Center Qatar Foundation - New Headquarters QF - West Car Park Alfardan Properties Management - Kempinski Marsa Malaz Hotel Qatar Foundation - North East Underground Park Qatar Foundation - Faculty of Islamic Studies Real Estate Services Group - Shoumoukh Towers Bridge Towers QF - Student Housing Facility UDC - The Pearl Qatar - Porto Arabia Tanmiyat - Bin Samikh Tower JIG - Burj Al Rayyan Complex Qatar Foundation - Sidra Residential Compound
Source: Meed, Zawya

Value (USDm) 430 412 360 335 330 325 293 290 275 274 264 250 247 225 223 220 212 200 191 175 170 137 133 130

27
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Appendix Qatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)

Qatari Infrastructure Contracts Project Name Qatar Railways Development Company - Qatar Rail Network Program Ashghal - Local Roads and Drainage Programme NDIASC - New Doha International Airport The New Doha Port Steering Committee - New Doha Port - Phase 1 Qatar Railways Company (QRail) - Doha Metro Network Qatar Railways Development Company - Lusail Light Rail Transit Network Ashghal - Local Roads and Drainage Programme - Qatar North Zone Qatari Diar - West Bay Automated People Mover - Phase 1 The New Doha Port Steering Committee - New Doha Port - Phase 2 Qatar PWA - Doha Bay Crossing Ashghal - Al Mael and Bani Hajer Roundabouts NDIASC - New Doha International Airport - Concourse C Superstructure NDIASC - Expansion of NDIA - Phase 3 Ashghal - Lusail Expressway Ashghal - Doha Expressway Package 13 Al Muntazah Street Expansion Ashghal - North Road - Duhail to Al Khawr (Phase 2) Ashghal - Doha Expressway - F Ring Road (Phase XII) Ashghal - Doha Expressway Phase 7/ Salwa Road Phase 2 NDIASC - New Doha International Airport - Catering Facility Ashghal - Dukhan Highway - Bani Hajer to Shahaniyah (Phase 2) Ashghal - Al Ruwais Port Ashghal - Bin Hajr Road Development - Area 51 Value (USDm) 42,000 13,700 11,000 4,000 3,000 1,800 1,800 1,400 1,230 1,000 1,000 750 750 700 650 600 552 437 368 300 215 185

NDIASC - New Doha International Airport - Emiri Terminal, Parking Structure and Mosque 549

Source: Meed, Zawya

28
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Appendix Qatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)

Announced Stadium Contracts Project Name QFA - Lusail Iconic Stadium QFA - Qatar University Stadium QFA - Education City Stadium QFA - Al-Wakrah Stadium QFA - Al Khor Stadium QFA - Al Shamal Stadium QFA - Sports City Stadium QFA - Umm Salal Stadium QFA - Doha Port Stadium QFA - Al-Gharafa Stadium Expansion QFA - Al-Rayyan Stadium Expansion QFA - Khalifa International Stadium Expansion Value (USDm) 662 300 287 286 251 251 251 251 202 135 135 71

Source: Meed, Zawya

29
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Appendix Qatar Projects On Hold

Projects On Hold Project Name Barwa Al Khor Company - Barwa Al Khor QP - Al Shaheen Refinery Al Wa'ab City QH/Honam - Qatar Petrochemicals Complex (QPCC) ADIH - Qatar Porta Moda Barwa Al Khor Company - Barwa Al Khor - Phase 1 QH/Honam - Qatar Petrochemicals Complex (QPCC) - Ethane Cracker Ashghal - Al Khawr Expressway Qafac - Ammonia & Methanol Expansion Qatari Diar - Doha Convention Center and Tower - Mixed Use Tower Dubai Properties Group - Dubai Towers Doha Ashghal - North Road - Al Zubara to Ushairej (Phase 4) Qatar Chlorine - Mesaieed Hydrochloric Acid Plant QP - Qatar Petroleum Complex Milaha - Logistics City - Phase 1 Qatar National Bank - Headquarters IBQ - IBQ Tower Darwish Real Estate - Darwish Tower Sector Real Estate Oil and Gas Real Estate Petrochemicals Real Estate Real Estate Petrochemicals Infrastructure Infrastructure Real Estate Real Estate Infrastructure Petrochemicals Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Value (USDm) 8,200 6,000 3,200 2,600 1,400 1,400 1,100 800 800 760 631 500 300 275 275 250 137 120

Source: Meed, Zawya

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Qatar First Investment Bank Suhaim Bin Hamad Street P.O. Box 28028 Doha Qatar Telephone: +974 4448 3333 Facsimile: +974 4448 3560 Email: information@qfib.com.qa