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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

27 MAY 01 JUNE 2013

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
The hypersensitivity of gold to information inflows was seen on Wednesday when Ben Bernanke testified before the US Congress on monetary policy. When he said that the US Federal Reserve may continue with its bond buying programme, the futures climbed above $1400 levels only to backtrack to former levels as he almost retreated from what he said. Volatility may mark the futures in the days to come,. The futures may trade in the range of $1360-$1410/oz in as we go forward. Chances cannot be ruled out that it may touch levels close to $1330,. Chances are more that gold cannot go up in the near future. Even if it goes up, it would be temporary and limited,. Theoretically, it would be a rare incident if gold could go below $1200/oz, its cost of production. But even that cannot be ruled out given the current circumstances,. But it is also difficult to rule out the scope of surprises that the economies around the world may throw up. Europe may take at least three years to recover. US is a beacon of hope. China data is not encouraging beyond a point,.When it comes to surprises, one should not forget that Cyprus indeed was a big surprise. The trend in crude oil futures for June delivery on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) looks sideways. Intra-day traders are advised to remain cautious till the release of EIA weekly crude oil inventory data which is scheduled for 08.00 PM IST today. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly stockpiles data later today and is expected to be negative for crude oil prices. Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday as American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that the crude oil inventories rose 532,000 barrels last week. Also, US gasoline inventories rose 3 million barrels last week.The API numbers were bearish across the board, Rising crude oil supplies, falling refinery utilization and rising gasoline stocks: This is the main reason why the oil complex is lower today, .WTI crude oil futures for July delivery was also seen trading down by 0.06% at $96.14 per barrel as of 05.37 PM IST on Wednesday. A Brent crude oil future for July delivery was also down by 0.22% at $103.65 per barrel as of 05.38 PM IST on Wednesday. Copper futures in the global market fell as Chinese manufacturing shrunk for the first time in seven months. Copper futures on Globex division of Comex was seen trading down by 1.23% at $3.326 per pound as of 10.27 AM IST on Thursday. Copper futures on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for June delivery was seen trading down by 1.24% at Rs.411.70 per kilogram as of 10.27 AM IST on Thursday. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and US jobless claims data are scheduled to be released later today and investors may get clues for their trading. China Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May has retreated into territory of contraction with HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI providing a reading of 49.6 compared to 50.4 in April. The May readings are at a seven-month low. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index meanwhile prevailed at 51.0 compared to 51.1 in April, a three-month low. A PMI reading of below 50 is indicative of contraction in the economy.Copper is falling after the worse-than-expected index along with the strengthening dollar,. Prices could fall further to $7,200 in the near term.US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday said that the Federal Reserve may cut its pace of asset buying program if labour market continues to improve.

Volatility may mark Gold futures in the days to come.

MCX Crude Oil sideways; EIA data awaited.

Copper slips on China mfg data; await German PMI, US job data.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
May 27, All Day May 28, 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm May 29, 10:30pm May 30, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 8:30pm May 31, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:15pm 7:25pm 7:25pm

DESCRIPTION
Bank Holiday S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Richmond Manufacturing Index FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks Prelim GDP q/q Unemployment Claims Prelim GDP Price Index q/q Pending Home Sales m/m Natural Gas Storage Crude Oil Inventories Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Personal Income m/m Chicago PMI Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

10.2% 70.4 2

9.3% 68.1 -6

2.5% 342K 1.2% 1.8%

2.5% 340K 1.2% 1.5% 89B -0.3M

0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 50.3 84.1

0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 49.0 83.7 3.1%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed sideways to bullish movement on daily charts and took support around 25370. It moved around the 23.6% retracement and now sideways movements are expected in the range of 26800-25900 in the coming week. If it breaks the resistance level of 27000 then only bullish movement is expected. On other hand bearishness is only expected below 25250.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell below 25800 for the targets of 2540025000 with stop loss of 26700.

S1
25840

S2
25250

S3
24750

R1
27100

R2
27700

R3
28260

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week broke its strong support of 42200 but unable to sustain below this and aggressive pull back was seen. Now if it gave closing below 42200 then only bearish movement will drag it to new lows. On other hand 45850 will act as strong resistance for it; only above this strength can be seen.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 44600 for target of 45800-47200, with stop loss of 42000.

PIVOT TABLE S1
42000

S2
40500

S3
39000

R1
45000

R2
46600

R3
48600

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on daily charts took support of lower band of upward channel pattern. Now if it breaks support level of 5160 then next support level seen around 5000. If it takes some correction from current levels then 5385 will act as strong resistance above this it may test the level of 5500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy on dips for the target of 5400-5500 with stop loss of 5140.

PIVOT TABLE S1
5165

S2
5060

S3
4945

R1
5310

R2
5410

R3
5520

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week broke its resistance level of 412 found resistance of 61.8% retracement and closed below 50% retracement which indicates some bearness in it. On weekly charts it forms a reversal pattern, now if it break psychological level of 400 then it will be in weak zone and may find next support near 392. On higher side 421 is act as resistance for it.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the target of 392-387.

S1
400

S2
392

S3
379

R1
417

R2
427

R3
438.10

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