=
=
+ = =
1
1
2
1
0
1
0
2 2
) ( ) ( ) ( 2 ) , cov(
N
k
j tN i tN
N
i
N
j
N
k k N N R R N o o o
This equation determines o
N
2
from o(1), , o(N1) and o
2
. Vice versa, it can also be
transformed in order to obtain o(N) from (o
2
=)o
1
2
, o
2
2
, ,o
N+1
2
.
C.2.2 2
nd
order statistics of self-similar processes
Self-similar models are defined based on properties of their 2
nd
order statistics. A process
R is exactly 2nd order self-similar with Hurst parameter H (0.5 s H < 1) [145], [146], if
. ) ( :
2 2 2 ) ( 2 2
= =
H N
N
N R N o o o
The same property is also valid for each of the derived processes R
(N)
. In this way, the
result is transferrable to time scales of coarser granularity, i.e., longer time frames with
increasing N. The autocorrelation function is again proven to be invariant for all derived
process R
(N)
[145], [146].
C.2.3 2
nd
order statistics for Gilbert-Elliott and 2-state (semi-)Markov models
The 2
nd
order statistics of a Gilbert-Elliott model has been derived in [143]:
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
+
+ =
) (
) 1 ( 1
1
) (
) )( 1 ( 2
1
3
2
2 2
q p N
q p
q p
h h q p pq
p p
N
N
G B
E E N
o
with state specific error rates error h
G
and h
B
, total error rate p
E
= (p h
G
+q h
B
)/(p+q) and
o
2
= p
E
(1 p
E
), where p and q are the transition probabilities from state G to B and vice
versa from B to G.
As preconditions for the derivation, the 2-state Markov chain is assumed to start in steady
state conditions, i.e., Pr{S
0
= G}= p/(p+q) and Pr{S
0
= B}= q/(p+q) for the initial state S
0
.An
extended result of the same type holds for the 2
nd
order statistics of 2-state semi-Markov
traffic models under the same steady state assumptions. As a general 2-state semi-
Markov result derived in [142], it is obtained:
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
+
+ =
) (
) 1 ( 1
1
) (
) )( 1 ( 2
1
3
2
2 2
q p N
q p
q p
q p pq
N
N
B G
N
o o
q p
q p
q p
q p
B G B B G G
+
+
=
+
+ + +
=
o o
o ;
) ( ) (
2
2 2 2 2
2
where p and q are again the transition probabilities and
G
and
B
are the state specific
mean traffic rates. As a main result of traffic modeling by self-similar, full 2-state semi-
D1.1 - Report on Stakeholder Relationships Seventh Framework STREP No. 317846
and Traffic Characteristics
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Markov, Gilbert-Elliott and 2-state Markov-modulated Poisson processes, the adaptation
flexibility of full 2-state semi-Markov models is shown to be much better than for all
mentioned alternatives, since 2-state semi-Markov models in general provide 2
parameters, which form the shape of their 2
nd
order statistic curve, whereas special 2-
state as well as self-similar processes have only a single adaptation parameter for the 2
nd
order statistics.
C.2.4 Measurement evaluations of the 2
nd
order statistics
The burstiness of traffic measurements was also evaluated in terms of the ratio of the
standard deviation to the mean o / in different time scales. Figure C-3 shows that the
total traffic has a low burstiness of o / = 0.3 already in the smallest considered time
scale of 1ms. Therefore a Byte count of all packets arriving per 1ms intervals was taken
as the traffic volume on this time scale, from which 1ms samples of the variable traffic rate
were computed. When statistics became available on the 1ms time scale, then the
authors easily summed up the mean traffic rate on larger time scales of 0.01s, 0.1s, 1.0s,
, etc., and thus, obtained the traffic variability on those time scales as well. Generally,
the standard deviation of the rate is decreasing for longer time scales.
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
0,001 0,01 0,1 1 10 100 1000
Time scale [s]
S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d
D
e
v
i
a
t
i
o
n
/
M
e
a
n
R
a
t
e
Facebook
YouTube
Total Traffic
o=o
1
o
10
o
100
o
1000
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
0,001 0,01 0,1 1 10 100 1000
Time scale [s]
S
t
a
n
d
a
r
d
D
e
v
i
a
t
i
o
n
/
M
e
a
n
R
a
t
e
Facebook
YouTube
Total Traffic
o=o
1
o
10
o
100
o
1000
Figure C-3: Burstiness over time scales for YouTube, Facebook traffic parts [142].
According to [142], evaluation results showed that the identified partial Facebook traffic
volume has a burstiness starting from 2.2 for 1ms and stays above the maximum of 0.3 for
the total traffic up to the 10s time scale. On the other hand, the burstiness of the YouTube
traffic portion lies between the Facebook and the total traffic curves over the entire time
scales. The burstiness of traffic aggregates is influenced by the statistical multiplexing
effect, i.e., variability is smoothing down in larger traffic aggregates, which is confirmed in
the results of Figure C-3.
Moreover, the burstiness also for single flows has been computed. In average, the
standard deviation of the data rate of a single Facebook flow is 9.5 times higher than its
mean data rate.
Seventh Framework STREP No. 317846 D1.1 - Report on Stakeholder Relationships
and Traffic Characteristics
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C.3 Consequences for SmartenIT
We have evaluated traffic profiles for different fractions of traffic that can be identified to
belong to application platforms. Measurement statistics on packets and flows confirm that
e.g. YouTube traffic has larger flow volumes than the total traffic mix, whereas Facebook
has much more short flows than in the average. The 2
nd
order statistics of traffic fractions
is included as a measure of traffic variability which is relevant for proper link dimensioning
in order to provide enough extra capacity for temporal overload. An update of packet and
flow measurement evaluation is planned for further study within the SmartenIT project with
a more detailed view on the current traffic and application mix.