Planning

Planning is the process of deciding in advance what is to be done, who is to do it, how it is to be done and when it is to be done. It makes it possible for things to occur which wouldnt otherwise happen. As such it bridges the gap from where we are to where we want to go.

Essential characteristics of planning

Process: planning is a process moving from a certain point of beginning to a definite end. It encompasses the plan formulation and implementation

phases Decision: planning also involves decision making which needs to select the most appropriate alternative out of a number of a given alternatives Action: planning is action oriented. Once the appropriate alternative is decided, it must be translated into action. Designing a plan should be followed by the implementation stage. Future: since the future is uncertain, activities should be planned in order to minimize wastage and induce efficiency. Economic, social, environmental and political factors should be considered so as to minimize the uncertainty of the future. A goal: plans have to be purposeful and directional. In order to reach to the goal of an organization, the resource allocation should not be beyond the capacity of the organization.
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Contd
In the words of Koontz, ODonnell and Weitrich,(1980) planning is an intellectual demanding process; it requires the conscious determination of course of action and the basing of decisions on purpose, knowledge and considered estimates. Planning is therefore, basically a process of thinking before doing involving the anticipation of future course of events with decision on the best course of action. To plan is to produce a scheme for future action, to bring about specified results, at specified costs, in a specified period of time(Chhabra,1988)

Nature of planning
i. Planning is related to objectives to be attained in the future

and the steps necessary to reach them. It seeks to achieve a consistent, coordinated structure of operations focused on desired and or forecasted ends. ii. Planning is the most basic of all management functions. It logically precedes the execution of all other functions iii. Planning is a pervasive function of management. It is the function of all managers, although the characteristics and breadth of planning vary with authority, and with the nature of policies and plans outlined by superiors. iv.The efficiency of planning is measured by what it contributes to the development of an organization, positive gains greater than costs.
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Benefits of planning
a) Planning prevents unnecessary repetition leading to wastage of efforts and resources. b) Planning provides a rational approach to predetermined objectives applying a systematic mental exercise by clearly indicating what, how , when and by whom an activity is to be done using resources wisely c) Plans focuses attention on objectives d) Ensure economical operation helping in better use of resources and thus minimize costs e) Planning reduces uncertainty. Since planning is a deliberate thinking based on facts and figures to forecast the future it can foresee various uncertainties which may be caused by changes in the environment.
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Contd
Planning facilitates control. Planning and control are inseparable in a sense that unplanned action cannot be controlled, because control involves keeping activities on the predetermined course of action rectifying deviations from plans. Planning helps control by furnishing standards of performance g) Planning encourages innovation and creativity. It creates forward looking attitude and initiative to perform things better h) Planning improves motivation because it ensures participation. It also makes actions and expectations clear and serves as a good training device for future managers i) Planning improves competitive strength by insuring value for money (effectiveness, efficiency and economy) j) Planning helps to achieve better coordination by securing unity of direction to achieve a common goal and helping to avoid duplication of efforts.
f)
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To conclude
If you fail to plan then you planed to fail
Planning is a road map to success Planning involves a choice between a course of action

without planning an organization will soon disintegrate, its actions would be as random as leaves scampering before an autumn wind, and employees as confused as ants in an up turned anthill(Chhabra,1988)

Principles of planning
Principles of contribution : plans should contribute to the development, facilitation and realization of organizational goods and development Principles of pervasiveness: planning is found and to be done at all levels Principles of limiting factors: planning should consider the resources at hand when developing alternatives, strategies, policies, procedures and standards. Principles of flexibility: possibility of error in forecasting and decision making for future uncertainties require an adjustment to maintain a course towards a desired goal Principle of a navigational change: managers should regularly check on events and redraw plans as required. The navigator changes the path of the ship in case it is not going on the right direction and check unforeseen events. Principles of participation: the participation of all stakeholders ensures sustainability and ownership of planned activities.
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Limitation of planning
Failure of planning in practice to achieve the desired results may occur as a result of: lack of know-how: many supervisors did not fulfil their planning responsibilities with the comment, I havent the faintest idea of to go about it. lack of reliable, dependable and adequate information: lack of facts and figures over which planning may be based could lead to failure of plans. In such a case value of the plan and organizational credibility could be lost completely Lack of vision and leadership: planning is a forward-looking process. If the planner lacks vision, commitment , communications and understanding of the situation/programs, proper implementation and achievement of goals is unthinkable
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Contd
Absence of commitment: many plans fail because people are

not committed to implement them. Sometimes they rely too heavily on experience, resist change or otherwise risk failure Little attention to time value: planning is a time consuming and expensive process. If sufficient time is not devoted in planning then the plan tend to be unrealistic and superficial Rigidity and/or tendency towards inflexibility: may also deter and block initiation, motivation, creativity and concern and may prevent alternative ways to combat and address changes in the environment. Many supervisors report that plans limit their freedom of action. Some supervisors have a tendency to rely forever on a good working plan. This type of thinking lowers creativity.
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Contd
Resistance to change: it self and organizational interest are not

kept in mind during planning, resistance may occur on the part of the workers leading to low value for money. Political instability and changing circumstances and/or uncertainties in the external forces may also result in poor planning and plan implementation Psychological factors also limit the scope of planning. Some people may consider the present more important than the future, because for them present is more certain. The time required: planning inevitably requires time. But invariably it will save the supervisors much more time than it takes. Planning time must be spent before the activities begin. It is too late to go back to the plan after things go wrong. Most managers find it easier to do something than taking the pain of thinking about the best way of doing things. However, if there is no pain, no gain.
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Contd
Pressure of other work: planning is a mental activity, current work demands the supervisors attention. When faced with day-to day decisions, the supervisor may tend to give planning lower priority.
Resource limitation: lack of manpower, budget, proper information and other resources hamper the planning activity.

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Measures to overcome these limitations

i. Set a clear cut objectives ii. Have an efficient, dependable and reliable information system iii. Make careful premising/ a framework within which planning

is done iv. Be dynamic in outlook and always look ahead to address uncertainty v. Keep some elements of flexibility and allow participation vi. Plan in the light of available resources vii.Make cost benefit analysis to ensure that the benefits of planning are more than the costs involved in it. viii.Establish measurable goals, clear insight to the alternative courses of actions available, premising reasonably by formulating derivative plans keeping in view the fact that environment is last changing.
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Types and Levels of Plans

Planning can be classified on different basis such as duration, repetitiveness, scope, specificity, breadth and levels. However, without making it complex it is found reasonable to focus only on the common types of plans.
Long range, middle range and short range plans Long-range plan: there is possibility of getting adequate time to anticipate the future. It sets long term goals for an organization and then proceeds to formulate specific plans for attaining those goals. It involves an attempt to anticipate, analyse and make decisions about basic problems and issues, which will have a far-reaching significance well beyond the present operating horizon.
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Medium-range plan: it is more popular in developing countries because it is not too short and not too long. There is time to revise the plan before problems grow in to unmanageable size. Short range plan on the other hand is concerned with the determination of short term issues to accomplish the long term objectives divided into short periods. Operational plans are generally related to short range plans. Short range plan(up to 1 year) is detailed and specified plan, mostly takes place at lower levels of organizations. If a plan is too short, we cannot anticipate far happenings. Besides, projects may not be completed. A short-range plan in one country can be long-range plan in another country depending on the availability of data or resources.
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Strategic and/or corporate plan

These are overall plans set by the top level management determining the general objectives of an organization and the steps necessary to accomplish them in the light of resources available and likely available in the future. A corporate plan is more or less similar to strategic plan. It is a systematic and comprehensive process of long-range plan taking into account the resources, capability and the environment viewing the organization as a total corporate unit. Functional plans are plans that cover functional areas like production, marketing, finance and purchasing.
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Standing and single use plans

Standing plans are plans designed to be used over and over again. They include organizational structure, standard and procedures, standard methods etc. on the other hand single use plans are plans for one time shot for instance project planning. Standing plans are formulated to achieve unity and uniformity of efforts in meeting repetitive situation or serve as ready guides to deal with recurring problems. Standing plans facilitates:
Delegation of authority without abdication Effective way of achieving goals

Efficient and effective coordination, consistency , uniformity and unity

Quick decisions and cost reduction and Better administrative control

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Contd
Tactical/administrative plans are plans done by middle level management, which provides the foundation for operative plans. Operational plans: the lower level managers to put the administrative plans into action on the other hand do operational plans Physical planning: this is concerned with physical location and arrangement of buildings and equipment. Examples are city and regional planning Formal and informal planning: various types of planning discussed above are of formal nature. The management, specifying in black and white the specific goals, strategies, programs and the steps to achieve them, installing control systems, carries them on systematically. Informal planning, on the other hand is mere thinking of individuals, which may become the basis of formal planning in the future.
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Levels of planning
Top-level planning also known as over all strategic planning is usually done by the top management/board of directors/governing body. It encompasses the long-range objectives and policies of an organization concerned with corporate results rather than sector objectives. It is concerned with the what of planning Middle level planning is also known as tactical planning, done by the middle level managers and/or departmental heads. It is concerned with how of planning. It deals with deployment of resources to the best advantage. Its nature is such that the time spans is usually shorter than those in strategic plans. It is usually devoted to the step-by-step attainment of the organizations objectives and in fact oriented to functions and departments rather than the organization as a whole. Low-level planning also known as operational or activity planning is mostly a concern of low-level managers and supervisors. It is confined to putting into effect the tactical or departmental plans, usually for a short term and may be revised quite often to be in tune with the tactical planning.
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Derivative plans
Planning consists of several components that are generally bound together. These may include objectives, projects, policies , programs, strategies, procedures, rules, methods and budgets. These are what we call derivative plans. Objectives: are the end results towards which activities of an organization are aimed at. Objectives provide direction to various activities; serve as a benchmark of measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of the plan, making every human activity purposeful. Projects: a project may be defined as a complex cluster of related activities with a distinct objective, definite completion time and resources aimed at attacking a given problem as a package. In some cases plans or programs can be decomposed into a number of projects each with clear-cut objectives, time, budget and other resources.
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Contd
Policies are general guidelines or limits within which members of an organization act. Policies are general standards, which guide thinking and action in a broader manner. Therefore, policies generally tend to be vague in nature to leave space for managers to act accordingly. A statement of a policy has the following characteristics. Policy is an expression of intentions of top management, presenting principles that will guide actions It is stated in broad terms to guide practice now and in the future Policy is long lasting and is related to long-term objectives Policy is formulated by the top management with active citizen participation Tend to live longer than the people who framed them Policy is in writing to ensure uniformity in application and serve as a final reference point in case of disagreement.
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Contd
Programs are derived from policies and involve planning for future events establishing a sequence of required actions. It is wider than projects in scope and duration. Strategies: refer to the firms overall plan or approach for dealing with an existing environment. Strategies most often denote a general program of action and deployment of emphasis and resources to attain comprehensive objectives. It shows the low of accomplishing a task as a supporting program/framework to guide thinking and action. Strategy mainly addresses and serves as a criterion to see the internal and external consistencies of plan appropriateness in the light of available resources, and seek an acceptable degree of risk.
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Contd
Procedures are a systematic way of handling regular events stated in terms of steps to be followed in carrying out tasks that make up a chronological sequence and established procedures way of performing the task to be accomplished. Procedures are therefore: A list of systematic steps handling events that occur regularly A guide to action rather than to thinking and hardly leaves any room for judgement Routinize the way certain recurring jobs are to be performed Avoid confusion in the organization Allow effective delegation and decentralisation without loss of control and coordination Accelerate clerical work without duplications and waste of efforts and resources Lubricate the channels of information and improve decision making If periodically reviewed, lead to work simplification, rationalisation, efficiency and reduced costs.
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Contd
The distinction between policies and procedures is that
Policies are guides to decision making while procedures are guides to

action Policies have some room for managerial thinking and direction, while procedures are generally detailed and rigid Policies form part of strategies of an organization while procedures are operational as tactical tools Policies are generally framed by top management and procedures are laid down at somewhat low-level in the light of policies However, both can be seen as standing plans, because they guide action, labour and time saving devices and provide ready made guidelines for dealing with recurring situations. Methods: a method is a working manual or mechanical means by which each operation is performed with a procedure. It is more limited in scope than a procedure and is an established manner of doing an operation and can be regarded as only one step of a procedure.
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Contd
Budgets are plans for using money and materials in a best possible manner. A budget is a plan and a statement of expected results expressed in numerical terms, like birr, product units or man-hours. It is an instrument for control and provides a standard of measurement for operation by which variations can be checked, but only when it reflects plan. A budget forces an organization to: Make in advance a numerical expectation of cash flow, expenses and revenues Is a key managerial process and coordination that adjust departmental budget in the master budget in tangible terms Portray verifiable and measurable goals to be reached within one year Budgets inject a sense of clarity, direction and purpose in the activities of an organization Budgets should not be rigid instruments and should enable us to cope up with unforeseen circumstances within a predictable range of activities Budgets should also be prepared carefully and should not represent a mere projection of the past performance. It should be forward looking document 25

Contd
Rules: are the simplest and most specific type of standing plans. They are used for guiding what may or may not be done. It is more rigid than a policy and demands specific action. It generally pertain to the administrative area of a procedure, and may not be part of a procedure. E.g. no smoking is not related to a procedure . rules demand strict compliance.

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Macro Educational Planning Approaches

Various macro educational planning approaches (methodologies) developed in industrialised countries have been applied in an attempt to make the development of the education system more efficient and effective. The Social Demand Approach The social demand approach is essentially responding, as far as resources permit, to anticipate future demand for education from pupils and parents. The method thus emphasizes that the essential objective of education policy is to meet the needs of its customers- the parents and pupils. Hence, although it is called a social demand approach it is in fact a private demand approach. The fundamental characteristics of this approach is that the expansion of the education system depends on the aggregate or sum total of demands for places.
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Contd
By the social demand approach economist usually refer mostly to planning driven by politics, which makes it satisfy the increasing popular demand for education. social demand is an ambiguous and mischievous term which can be defined in several quite different ways. It is most commonly used to mean the aggregate popular demand for education; that is, the sum total of individual demand for education at a given place and time under prevailing cultural, political and economic circumstances. The social demand approach, which emphasizes the aggregate expansion of education in line with the increases in the age cohort for education, assumes education is an affordable right. 28

Contd
If there are fewer classrooms and places than there are candidates to occupy them, one can say that social demand exceeds supply. There is good evidence of a demand and supply gap when educational authorities and political leaders receive mounting complaints from irate parents whose children can not get into school. Within limits, public authorities can influence the size of social demand though as a practical matter it is far easier to stimulate an increase than to reverse the process. For example if a government can afford to, it can arbitrarily boost social demand by requiring school attendance, and beyond the age of compulsion, by making education free (even, in the extreme, by compensating students or their parents for the income and work forgone). Short of these measures, governments can use propaganda to stimulate the private(voluntary) demand for education. But the culture itself, the climate of attitudes and convictions about what education can do for people, is undoubtedly, the most influential factor of all in determining the social demand for education, provided people can pay for it.
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Contd
Measuring social demand is almost always extremely difficult and often impossible. The exception, of course, is where compulsory education exists together with good demographic data on the relevant age group(the case in most industrialised countries but not in most developing nations). To obtain even a good approximate measure of voluntary demand would virtually require a house-to-house canvass in most cases.

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Problems of the social demand approach

What do you think are the problems associated with the social demand approach to educational planning? The following problems of the social demand approach are identified: 1.The concept of social demand for education is not a very objective one because it can be quite easily manipulated by the public authority itself. The level of demand can be controlled by such factors as:
The system of financing education
By variation in the shape of the education structure and

The situation of the labour market

By varying the admission procedures or the charges for education , it is also possible to diminish or increase public desire for education.
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Contd
2.Exclusive reliance on public demand as a guide to education policy can easily result in a conservative approach to the process of educational planning itself.

In a situation such as those prevalent in African countries where educational provision is more or less a government monopoly, planning on the basis of social demand can easily come to mean more of the same. The frequently expressed concern with falling standards in a situation of rapid expansion may be a manifestation of this. The danger is the reduction of educational planning to the level of simple arithmetical manipulation of calculating rates of educational expansion and the resources needed for it.
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Contd
3.The social demand approach is basically an approach of satisfying private demand for education, the heavy subsidization of education, as in the case in most African countries, means that private or individual demand and private benefits will far exceed the social or community benefits of educational expansion. The likelihood will be that the more wealthy members of the society and the already educationally advanced areas will benefit even more from the provisions of education; as such groups are more articulate in pushing their interests. Consequently, this will amount to favouring more those better off areas and privileged social groups, thereby increasing social inequalities.
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The Manpower Approach

Many economists preferred the manpower approach to educational planning. The argument in its favour ran as follows: Economic growth is the mainspring of a nations over-all development and thus should be the prime consideration in allocating its scarce resources. Economic growth however required not only physical resources and facilitates but also human resources to organize and use them. Thus the development of human resources through the educational system is an important pre-requisite for economic growth and a good investment of scarce resources, provided the pattern and quality of educational output is geared to the economys manpower needs.
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Contd
What do you think is the main function of education according to the advocates of manpower approach? Can education have other important purposes other than producing manpower? The advocates of manpower planning readily conceded that education has other important purposes besides producing manpower, but saw no necessary conflict. They disposed of the issue by inviting educational planners to weigh these other objectives along with manpower considerations, but this was vague guidance and poor comfort.

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Stages of the manpower approach

The manpower approach stems from the idea that educational plans must be established in the light of economic and social development objectives It supposes that is possible to estimate future manpower(and particularly skilled manpower) needs on the basis of assumptions concerning the evolution of the economy and its occupational structure. These needs can then be set against the expected output of the training system in order to bring the two as closely in line as possible. The approach comprises the following stages:
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a)It starts from economic projections, up to a given future date, of

the level of national production and its breakdown by sectors or branches of activity. It makes assumptions as to the evolution of productivity in each sector, thus giving estimates of the number of people employed. b)The next step is to estimate the breakdown of these numbers by occupations, occupational categories, or socio-occupational categories. To do this it is necessary to know the present structure by sector and to estimate how this structure will change over the period in question. The application of these structural coefficients to the estimated numbers per sector gives the breakdown of numbers by sector and by occupation. The recapitulation of all the sectors gives an estimate of the total employment available(number of jobs on offer) by occupation for the final year of the period.
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Contd
c) To meet this available employment(or manpower demand), it is then necessary to estimate the manpower resources which will be available at that time. These resources are drawn from i. The numbers at present employed, making allowance for deaths, retirements and if possible, occupational mobility; ii. The expected output of the training system over the whole period from start to finish. Potential job offers or manpower needs= jobs corresponding to economic forecasts by occupation/skill Manpower resources or availability=residual manpower(after deduction of retirements +deaths)+ predictable output of training system
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Contd
d)All that remains to be done is to set these estimated needs of the economy against the predictable resources so as to produce a balance-sheet of shortfalls and surpluses, and establish the training policy accordingly.

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Problems of the manpower approach

Can you identify the problems of the manpower approach to educational planning? While the broad logic of the manpower approach is hard to argue with, its practical application revealed a number of flaws: 1. It gave the educational planner limited guidance. It had nothing to say about primary education(which was not considered to be work-oriented) though by implication it suggested curbing the expansion of primary education until the nation got richer. Most manpower studies confined their attention to high level manpower needed by the modern sector (that is mostly urban employment). Thus planners were given no useful clues about the educational requirements of the people who would constitute the vast majority of the nations future labour force, namely semiskilled and unskilled workers in the cities and the vast majority of workers who lived in rural areas. 40

Contd

2. The employment classifications and manpower ratios(e.g. the desirable ratio of engineers to technicians, doctors to nurses) used in most manpower studies in developing countries, as well as the assumed educational qualifications corresponding to each category of job, were usually borrowed from industrialised economies and did not fit the realities of less developed ones. The actual work of a building trade worker or agricultural specialists or health officers in Africa or Asia, for example, was likely to be quite different, and to call for a different sort of preparation, from that of someone wearing the same label in the developed nations. Educational plans based on such faulty assumptions could result in the mis preparation and over preparation of many students for the jobs they were meant to fill.
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Contd
3. A third difficulty was the possibility of making reliable forecasts of manpower requirements far enough ahead to be of real value to educational planning, because of the myriad economic, technological and other uncertainties involved. The more refined the categories(e.g. electrical engineers rather than engineers of all types) and the long range the forecast (e.g. five to ten year vs. one or two years) the fuzzier the estimates became and the less trustworthy.

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The rate-of return/ cost-benefit approach

Economist coming out of the neo-classical tradition observed that the manpower approach was about as guilty as the social demand approach of ignoring the overall allocation problem and the key test of benefits versus costs. By the way, what do you understand by the rate of return approach to educational planning? What is the underlying argument of the approach? The cost-benefit principle is what a rational individual roughly applies when deciding how best to spend his money when his desires exceed his means. He examines his alternatives, weighs the cost of each and the corresponding satisfaction or utility he feels it will bring him, and then chooses those particular options within his means that promise the highest ratio of benefits to costs. 43

Contd
Whereas the manpower approach typifies a deliberate planning approach, cost-benefit analysis is an example of a liberal approach in the context of which education is seen as an investment to which the usual economic principles governing investments are applicable. The method thus consists of clarifying each decision by a previous calculation of the costs and benefits attaching to it. In practice, cost-benefit analysis applied to education means determining an economic rate of return the analysis of which serves as a guide for the rational allotment of resources. The technique is derived from the classic theory of the firm and is based on micro-economic calculation.
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Methods to Assess the ROR of a Project

Three methods can be used to assess the rate of return of a project: The cost-benefit ratio, expressed in present value The calculation of the net present value of the project, that is to say, the difference between the present value of the benefits and the present value of the costs The calculation of the internal rate of return of the project, i.e. the rate of interest to be applied to the costs and benefits of the investment to make them equal. The analysis of the rate of return is the method most often used to assess the profitability of an investment in the education sector. The first step in this approach is the evaluation of the costs and benefits connected with a project.45

Calculation of Benefits
What we want to know is what are the benefits to the economy of an investment made in the education sector, or what are the economic advantages of this or that level or type of education? Differences of income between people of different levels of instruction are usually taken into consideration to assess the benefits attaching to a higher level of education. This form of evaluation rests on two basic assumptions: i. An individuals income reflects his productivity, that is to say, his effective contribution to production. ii. Income differences observed among individuals correspond to different levels of productivity which themselves reflect distinct levels of instruction.
Benefits are thus calculated by totalling the observed income differentials among individuals of the same age and different levels of instruction for the entire duration of their working life.
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Calculation of costs
In economics, the cost of a decision encompasses not only the apparent costs but also the cost of relinquishing one of the possible alternatives. To the actual expenditure made by individuals and the community must be added the loss of benefits resulting from this relinquishment. At the individual level, allowance must also be made for the loss of family earning opportunities due to the school enrolment of children, whose attendance at school prevents them from performing productive work. The production(or wage) thus sacrificed by children enrolled in school represents a substantial share of the cost or their educationat the individual and family level as well as at the level of society. It accounts for a large share of private costs of school 47 enrolment.

Calculation of the rate of return

A knowledge of the costs and benefits and their expression in terms of present value enables the rate of return on investment to be determined. This, it will be remembered, is the rate at which costs and benefits are equal. Depending on whether the analysis is at the individual or the community level, the rate of return is referred to as private or social. It is usually calculated by level or type of education, the objective being to assess the profitability of a certain type of education. Rates of return are relative indicators, that is to say, they make it possible to evaluate the profitability of alternative investments by comparing their respective rates of return.
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Contd
Different bases of comparison are possible: Comparison between the rates of return of education and that of other categories of social investment International comparisons Comparison between the rate of return of different levels of education Comparison between rates of return at different periods These different approaches make it possible; interalia, to gain a better understanding of individuals educational preferences and of trends in the social demand for education. They also serve as a basis for directing public investments towards the most profitable types of education, that is to say, those which can make the greatest contribution to economic growth.
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Contd
Rates of return of education calculated in various regions of the world at different time reveal a number of marked trends:
The rate of return of education is higher than that of other

types of social investment Primary education is the sector with the highest rate of return Investment in education is appreciably more profitable for the individual than for society The rate of return of education is higher in developing countries than in developed areas of the world. Results of this type often provide guidelines for investment policies at both the individual and national levels, or for the allocation of international funds. 50

Some Planning Techniques and Tools

I. Forecasting
Planning involves taking of decisions on the basis of assumption of what is likely to happen in the future. Such assumptions are nothing but forecasts. As such forecasting is the planning premises (a framework/bedrock up on which the planning is done). Since planning should base it-self on a systematic forecasting, the planning premises for forecasting should:
Base both upon past and present as well as expected events Assesses the internal and external realities Controllable and

Tangible
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Contd
In a nutshell forecasting is the process of predicating the future or a systematic attempt to probe the future with the help of known facts. It is a research process to scan the environment. It is highly useful to draw sound policies as well as to establish a control system by bringing unity of purpose into the system. Forecasting embodies techniques for predicting the future social, economic, and other trends of organizations. The following questions are asked:
How far ahead?(Time)

What are the trends?(Direction)

How large(magnitude)

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Steps in forecasting
Understand the problem Develop the groundwork from past data to get a speedometer reading of current

rate Select and carefully analyse data Estimate future events, on the basis of the analysis

Techniques of forecasting
Quantitative techniques that make use of statistical tools to predict future events such as time series analysis, regression analysis, econometric models, and extrapolation. It deals with numerical information e.g. projecting students enrolment, analysing sales record etc Qualitative techniques mainly apply human judgement to see the future. Examples are historical perspective (business barometer), panel consensus, Delphi method and morphological research method. It encourages the participation of every one in the group, focuses concentration on a specific question and reaches consensus through voting. It is designed to overcome the limitations of traditional committee meetings by maintaining the individuals annuity of opinion.
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Without forecasting you could not see the future II. Contingency planning Since the future is uncertain, flexibility is required in planning. The central idea of contingency is , what if this plan goes wrong: in contingency, the cost may be high, but there is less danger. Reflections In which situation is contingency planning mostly recommended in developing countries like Ethiopia?

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The Key Planning Questions in Educational Planning

1.What should be the priority objectives and functions of the educational system and of each its sub-systems(including each level, institution, each grade, each course, each class)? 2.What are the best alternative ways of pursing these objectives and functions? This involves the various mode of delivery such as formal, non-formal, distance, etc. it also considers alternative cost, time requirements, practical feasibility, educational effectiveness, etc 3.How much of the nations(community)resources should be devoted to education at the expenses of other things? That is, the maximum resource that education can effectively absorb from the total national resources or budget of country. 55

Contd
4.Who should pay for education and how should the available resources allocated among different levels? The government alone should not be responsible for education. Educational costs should be distributed between the first recipients of education and society at large, and among different groups in the society. There should be wellorganized public fiscal structure and other sources of educational revenue to attain a socially desirable distribution of the burden and at the same time a sufficient income to education.

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Contd
The following are some of the major changes in the planning context pertinent to education. 1)Increasing uncertainty of the environment: instability due to poor political leadership, drought, war situations, economic recession or inflation adversely affects the planning of education. 2)Modern technological developments: some of the developments in modern technology (radio, television, computer electronics) have tremendous impact on information, values, knowledge, skills and geographical distance. Such development have led to what is known as knowledge explosions.
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Contd
3)The growing complexities of educational organizations: unlike most other

formal organizations, the school has a human product that gives rise to unique problems of organization and management. Because virtually every one(students, taxpayers, politicians, teachers, etc) is a stakeholder in the school. 4)The rising cost of education: the demand for education is increasing. But the capacity of the economy to expand educational facilities and widen employment opportunities is limited. 5)Claim for more participation: democracy calls for greater participation of all concerned stakeholders 6)Concern for implementation: unsuccessful plans are drafted by planners who do not consult Need to involve social actors(committees) Need to involve educational actors, from top down to bottom up approaches Importance of feasibility studies, monitoring and evaluation
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Contd
7)Educational plan should be part of an overall plan to succeed(health, agriculture, industry, construction, poverty reduction, etc) 8)The international agenda
Education for all: enrol all children in primary school by the year 2015 Quality and equity: finding the proper mix. Those who view the role of education in equalizing opportunity assume that by gearing the education system to full participation, society can mobilize resources that will reduce costs of schooling. On the other hand, those who consider education as input into economic growth, require improving the quality of education by decreasing the educational expansion. Poverty reduction : reduce the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by half between 1990 and 2015. Reduce mortality rates

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Inside-out planning
In this planning approach, it is as if one were looking from within the organization outside into the operational world where learner complete, live and work. This focus represents the view of those who feel comfortable with the current educational activities. It emphasizes that the primary client of education will be the education organization it self while ignoring those who pay the bills. Using this tactic each class, then department then school is asked to develop plan. The education system may be efficient and could get completer(graduates) and still have no employment opportunities, if it is not responsive to the environment (outside-in planning) 60

Outside-in planning
Planning in this way is as if one were looking into the organization from outside(from the society point of view) back into the organization and its results and efforts. It recognizes that education is a means to societal ends. This perspective constructively challenges the status quo. It is the rationale for most professionals who seek positive change and growth, not just maintaining the status quo or keeping the organization on truck focusing on current operations.
61

Strategic Planning
SP is the process by which an organization envisions its future

and develops the necessary procedures and operations to achieve that future.(help the organization to create its future). SP is the process of determining what organization intends to be in the future how it will get there. It is finding the best future for your organization and the best path to reach that direction. SP is the process of developing objectives for the organization and its subparts as well as developing and evaluating alternative courses of action to reach these objectives, doing this on the basis of a systematic evaluation of external threats and opportunities and internal audit of strengths and weaknesses.
62

SP process consists three interrelated managerial tasks: 1. Developing a strategic vision and mission Deciding what business the company will be in and forming a strategic vision of where the organization needs to be headed in effect, infusing the organization with a sense of purpose, providing long-term direction, and establishing a clear mission to be accomplished. 2. Setting objectives Converting the strategic vision and mission into measurable objectives and performance targets 3. Crafting a strategy Charting a course of action to achieve the objectives
63

Developing a strategic vision and mission

Identifying and clarifying the organizations vision and mission involves: History and present situation review:
Why was
Its

the organization formed?

philosophies and mission when it was formed Past achievements and shortcomings

What did the environment look like when to the organization

was formed
Economic,

social and political context at that time

What did the current environment look like?

Visioning
Creating or reformulating mission
64

Visioning
Vision is an organizations hope for the reality to be, i.e. the desired situation, as opposed to the realities that is. It is:
a view of an organisations future direction and business course, a

guiding concept for what the organization is trying to do and to become organizations view of how it would like the world to be, it is hoped for the reality to be . Expression of ideas, belief or dream based on shared values but that may not be attained in ones life time. Visioning Involves developing a carefully reasoned answer to the question: what is our vision of the company- what are we trying to do and to become? Charts a course for the organization to take and help establish a strong identity.
65

Contd
a well conceived strategic vision is a prerequisite to effective strategic leadership. A vision can have lots of purposes, the most important of which are the following: Shared vision is an initial force that brings people together Inspires stakeholders It is a life blood of an organization Helps to see what you are working towards Provides energy, momentum and strengths to individuals Provides basis for partnership Binds an organisation together in times of crises Helps organization Provide incentive to work through internal conflict
66

Contd
Examples of Visions a) To eradicate famine and poverty from Ethiopia b) To be the leading supplier of PCs and PC servers in all customer segments (company) c) To be a foremost management skills and knowledge development institution (EMI)

67

Mission
Mission is a very broad and general statement about the basic purpose of the organization. It is managements customerized answer to the question what is our business and what are we doing as an organization and as well what are we trying to accomplish on behalf of our customers? Its the biggest picture of an organization It describes the organizational purpose for the existence given its vision It is a statement of what business the organization is in It tends to be concerned more with the present (what is our business) than a bigger issues of long-term direction(where we are headed, what new things do we intend to pursue). What will our business make up be in 5 to 10 years, what kind of company are we trying to become, and what sort of long term position do we aspire to achieve? A strategic vision/mission statement sets an organization apart from others in its industry and gives its own special identity, business emphasis, and path for development.
68

A mission statement provides answer to 5 essential questions: 1) What?: what is being satisfied? The mission statement defines the need which the organization is intended to satisfy. 2) Who?- the mission statement must provided a definition of the organization offering the service including defining how it is different from other organizations 3) Whom?- customer groups or who is being satisfied? Must identify the organizations clients, target beneficiaries, geographic domain, clients should include families, children teacher etc 4) How?- how customer needs are satisfied-the technology used and functions performed. It must define the means, processes, methods or procedures for service provision 5) Why?- define the ultimate goal of the organization, why the organization exists. It must be well conceived and clearly defined.
69

Examples of mission statements

a) To improve the socio-economic well being of marginalised

communities in the x-regional state through project intervention focusing on water, education and training(NGO) b) To provide any customer a means of moving people and things up, down and side ways over short distance with higher reliability than any similar enterprise in the world.(Otis Elivator) c) To improve the quality of human life, to enhance self reliance and concern for others, and to help people avoid, prepare for, and cope with change.(American Red cross) d) To enhance the management capabilities of private , government, NGOs and others by providing cost effective and high quality services through training, consultancy and research and development interventions. It believes in team work, transparency, networking, continuous learning, integrity and high standard customer services.(EMI)
70

Mission statements can also be stated for departments. It describes:

The principal role and activities of a department

The department's contribution to the company mission

ExampleHRM department's mission To contribute to organizational success by developing effective leaders, creating high performance teams, and maximizing the potential of individuals

71

2. Setting Objectives
Objectives Targeted outcomes and desired results. They are yardsticks for tracking an organization performance and progress. Explicit, clear and specific statements about a desired accomplishment in quantifiable. Push an organization to be more inventive and be more intentional and focused in action Helps guard against complacency, drift and internal confusion over what to accomplish Should ideally include both short-range and long range performance targets
72

Contd
Long range objectives should take precedence

Should be challenging but achievable Should be quantifiable/ measurable

Setting objectives converts the managerial statement of business mission and vision into specific targets, something the organizations progress can be measured by. Is required of all managers. Objective setting needs to be more of a top down than a bottom up process in order to guide lower level managers and organizational units towards outcome that support the achievement of overall business and company objectives.
73

3. Crafting Strategy
Undertaking solid diagnosis of the companys internal and external situation Developing sound strategy

Strategy
The pattern of action manager employ to achieve strategic and financial

performance targets How to achieve the targeted results in light of the organizations situations and prospects Is the means of achieving objectives while objectives are the ends. Consists of the actions and business approaches management employees to achieve the targeted organizational performance. Is typically a blend of: Deliberate and purposeful actions and As needed reactions to unanticipated developments and fresh competitive pressures. 74

Forms of strategy

Unrealized strategy

Deliberate strategy

Emergent Strategy

75

Contd
Intended strategy: what an organization intends to do Related strategy: what they really do Deliberate Strategy: Intentions that are fully realised Unrealised strategy: Intentions that are not realised Emergent strategy: reactions to unanticipated development. Actions were taken, one by one, which converges overtime to some sort of consistency or pattern.

76

3.1. SWOT Analysis

A comprehensive audit of an organisations strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the environment in which it operates and in the context of its mission.
It is a process of environmental scanning to analyse various economic, legal, political, social and demographic factors which might impact on an organizations effectiveness. Purpose-to inform on the ability of an organization to survive and to successfully carry out its mission

77

Identification of SWOT
Strengths: positive internal factors that occur at present(not potential). E.g. appropriate technology, committed leadership and staff, financial stability, enthusiastic community, diversified funding Weaknesses: the lack of missing.,or weak points occurring at present. They are within the control of the project not just potential. E.g. in experienced staff, inadequate finance, poor relationship among stakeholder, poor networking skills, lack of incentives, lack of technical expertise Opportunities: positive factors in the environment which the organization should take advantage of or which make the ideal potential viable. They are, however, beyond the control of the organization. E.g. improved economy, enabling environment, willing donors, favourable government policies etc Threats: are negative/unfavourable external factors in the environment. They affect the business if not eliminated or overcome. They are normally beyond the control of the organization. E.g. worsening economic conditions, natural disasters, shrinking resource, changing political regimes, lack of external fund, etc
78

3.2. Developing strategic options

Make a juxtaposition of strengths(S) and weaknesses (W) of the organization with the opportunities(O) and threats(T) in the environment to generate options.
External Internal Opportunities Strengths Strategic options (How can the strengths be used to take advantage of opportunities or how can the opportunities be used to maximize the strengths) Weakness Strategic options (How can weakness be overcome to take advantage and implement opportunities)

Threats

Strategic options (How can strengths be used to overcome / counteract threats that tend to hinder the achievement of objectives and pursuit of opportunities)

Strategic options (How can weaknesses be overcome to counteract threats that tend to hinder achievement of objectives and pursuit of opportunities)
79

3.3. Evaluating and choosing the preferred strategies

Make an in-depth look at strategic issues and gaps between what the organization is now doing what it will be called on to do in the desired future.
Evaluate these options according to criteria that you decide are most important

Remember the preferred strategy is the one:

Which builds upon the strengths of the organization Which takes best advantage of opportunities available

Which addresses the principal threats

Which avoids or overcome the principal weaknesses

80

Instruction for making strategic choices:

List down selected strategies that will level to the achievement of your vision, mission and goal(VMG) Where you want to have the most impact Where you want to use your resources, and
Where you want to contribute substantial change Use evaluation matrix

An organizations strategy contains how to grow the business, how to satisfy the customer, how to outcompete rivals, how to respond to changing market conditions, how to manage each functional piece of the business, how to achieve strategic and financial objectives.
81

Contd
The how's of strategy tend to be organization specific, customized to organizations own situation and performance objectives. Company strategies are partly visible and partly hidden to outside view. Most of them can be deduced from its action and public pronouncements. The unrevealed part can be speculated from the moves and actions their mangers are considering but managers may not reveal certain elements of their strategy until the time is right.

82

II. Strategy Implementation

Seeing what will it take to make the strategy work and to reach the

targeted performance schedule Is fundamentally an action oriented, make it happen activity organizing, budgeting, policy making, motivating, culture building and leading are all parts of achieving the target results Involves action planning and putting it into effect Translates all the previous steps into a final set of action Translate your preferred strategies into specific action A set of actions that address the priority issues, Meet the shared goals Identifies who will be responsible Allocate resource and Establishes timeliness for accomplishing the actions
83

Contd
Aims to create fits between the way things are done and what it takes for effective strategy execution. The most important fits are between :

Strategy and organization capabilities, Strategy and internal support system Strategy and organization culture

84

III. Evaluating Performance, Reviewing New Developments and Initiating Corrective Adjustments
Monitoring of all actions

Reviewing of new developments

Taking corrective measures where necessary and Making revision to the plan as implementation experience dictates are normal parts of the strategic management process.

Strategy-making and implementing are not a one time exercise. Nothing about the SM process is final. All prior actions are subject to modification as conditions in the surrounding environment change and ideas for improvement emerge. SM is a process filled with motion.
85

Contd
The strategic plan revision may include:
vision:-narrowing or broadening
Mission:- redefining the business Objectives:-lowering or raising in light of past experience

and future prospects Strategy:-may need to be modified because of shifts in longterm direction, new objectives or changing conditions in the environment.

86

 The search for strategy execution is also continuous

Has to be thought of as a process, not an event. It occurs through the pooling effect of many managerial decision and many incremental actions on the part of work groups and individuals across the organization. This may include:

Implementation

Budget revision Policy changes Re-organization Personnel changes Re-engineering activities and work processes Culture change actions and Revising compensation practices are typical actions mangers take to make a strategy work better.
87

Project Management
Ayalew Shibeshi (Associate Professor)
88

What is a project?
Originated from a Latin verb projicer which means to throw forward. It denotes the idea that proposals, which may introduce new ideas, improvement and changes are put forward.

89

Contd
A discrete package of investments, inputs and activities, designed to remove or alleviate various development constraints in order to achieve one or more objectives aimed at improving the quality of life of a group of target beneficiaries over a given time span. a set of investment and of other planned activities aimed at achieving specific objectives within a predetermined time-frame and budget. All the definitions indicate that a project is something unique or different from the usual way of doing things.

90

Contd
A project is a task with a beginning , a middle and an end which the manager needs to complete. It will have :

Objectives: a definite goal or an outcome to achieve. Benefits: what you expect to achieve by the project Timescale: definite period of time for achieving it. Inputs of resources: investment of scarce resources in the expectation of future benefit. Conceptual boundary: usually geographical but sometimes theoretical Specific mode of work: a project can be planned, financed and implemented as a unit.

91

Types of Projects
One can identify four major types of projects:
Experimental Project: attempts to address a problem in

an innovative manner using the alternative approaches. Pilot Project: strengthens the applicability of the experience derived from experimental projects to local levels. It also highlight the problem of implementation, test the effectiveness of the approach adopted and can provide valuable training experiences for personnel. Demonstration project: is basically a forum to exhibit new techniques or approaches of a pre tasted experiment. Production project: has the role of increasing productivity, adjusting to scale requirements and a high degree of replicability.
92

Projects and Programs Compared

Project Differences Specific in objectives /purpose Has specific geographic unit Has specific target group Program Has general objectives May not have specific area May not have specific target group

Has clearly allocated fund Has specific life

May not have defined financial allocation May not have specific time of ending

Similarities Has purpose /objectives Require input(financial, manpower and material) Generate output(goods and/or services) Operate over space and time

93

Project
A project is likely to comprise several or all the following five elements:
Capital investment in civil works, equipment or both

Provision of services for design and engineering, supervision of

construction, and improvement of operations and maintenance Strengthening of local institutions concerned with implementing and operating the project including the training of local managers and staff Improvements in policies-such as those on pricing, subsidies, and cost recovery A plan for implementation of the above activities to achieve the projects objectives within a given time. e.g. a project may involve the expansion of primary education in a given region of a country.
94

 Contrary to a widespread notion, the word project does not apply only to authorities financed with the support of outside assistance. While it is true that a major part of extreme and to developing countries is supplied through projects, there other projects for which financing is entirely functional in origin.

Contd

95

Programme
The word programme means a series of permanent activities with a broader scope than project.
Unlike projects, programmes do not necessarily include

investments The domain of activity of a programme can be an entire sector (for e.g.. education) or a sub-sector (primary education) or a major function of the system(for example, elaboration of school curricula and textbooks) The execution of a programme is often longer than that of a project. A programme may consist of a set of projects, aimed at achieving several related objectives.
96

Contd
A programme with the objective of improving the quality and relevance of primary education might consist of three projects:
Elaboration, production and distribution of school textbooks b) In-service training of teachers c) Creation of a system of continuous evaluation of the quality of education
a)

97

Advantages and Disadvantages of Projects

The main advantage consists in the logical structuring of problem, of development objectives, of proposed solutions and of projected investment.

This logical framework necessitates a certain degree of rigour on the part of policy makers and administrators in its elaboration and expectation. It makes it possible to ensure that the initial objectives not lost sight of, and that the allocated resources are used in a rational manner. The specificity of the objectives and the need to define them clearly force the planner to design projects realistically. The concrete nature of projects gives them good viability, which is highly appreciated by external aid sources. Fragmentation of actions and clarifications of their objectives make it easier to assess results and to learn lessons for the future.
98

Contd
On the other hand, project utilisation has its limitation:
It would seem to be poorly suited to sub-sector that require many

small investments in the field, such as primary education. Experience shows, however, that programmes designed to implement such investment gain a lot from being elaboration on the basis of the methods used for projects. The same is true when there is a shortage of precise data that could be used to clearly define problems and objectives. The discipline required in the elaboration of a project makes it possible at least to identify gaps and to try to fill them. The accusation is sometimes made that projects eliminate any coherence the plan might have, because of the fragmentation they introduce into its implementation. Such incoherence occurs when the problem is aimed more at seeking and receiving external financing than at implementing national development policies.
99

Contd
As Aime Damiba has put it, the planning process is then completely inverted
First the projects likely to enjoy the support of a foreign aid

source are identified, and only as a stage are the consistency and coherence of the objectives of the projects established in order to elaborate the plans general orientation. Under these(conditions) circumstances, national objectives play second fiddle to external aid policies. This danger is very real. However its root cause is not the breakdown of investments into projects, but rather the excessive dependence of the counties in question on foreign donor for investment funding. The dearth of national mangers trained in the methods of project elaboration and management is also a severe handicap for these countries.
100

Contd
Projects offer governments a way of implementing their educational policies that is simultaneously rational, flexible and adaptable to changing situations. The elaboration of projects, because of the rigour and the realism required by the process, also constitutes a first test of the feasibility of certain policies, even before they are applied. As a small, projects can play a salutary role of reorientation; toward a more pragmative approach, in the course of educational planning.

101

Sector Analysis

102

What is a sector?
Analytically, a sector is a matter of aggregation, and it can, in principle, be defined at any intermediate point between the individual project and the functional investment program. Then, the definition of a sector is largely a matter of convention and convenience. In practice, there is considerable agreement as to what a sector is. Most governments are organised into sectoral ministries whose areas of responsibility and whose policy and analytical function are broadly similar from one country to another.

103

Contd
A sector analysis, for the most part, the producing or

operating units in the economy that share a common function or output. E.g. Agriculture sector-all the farms in the country, Education all the schools and colleges so on. Each sector, in turn, can be broken down into sub-sectors e.g. agriculture: food grains, livestock, free crops, cotton Sector can be subdivided in many ways, depending on the purpose; irrigation, credit, research and extension can also be considered subsectors of agriculture Sector are usually nationwide, and each is usually assisted and regulated by a common set of government agencies and policies.
104

Contd
Reference is sometimes made to The production sector(Agriculture, Industry, Mining) Infrastructure sector(transport, energy) The social sector (education, health, population)

Another frequently used classification consist of :

Primary sector: includes all activities that produce food and raw materials directly from nature (agriculture, mining, fisheries , logging) Secondary sector: all activities that process the output of the primary sector into usable products (which includes the whole industrial sector) Tertiary sector: all activities whose main output is not a product but a service provided by people .

105

Contd
Although governments tend to subdivide the economy along largely similar lines for administrative purposes, the precise demarcation of sectoral boundaries varies among countries. E.g. irrigation may be grouped with power or assigned to some other infrastructure ministry (while extension work with farmers in irrigation areas resides in the agriculture sector) In any event, it is necessary that the boundaries among sectors be well defined; that analysis, oversight and coordinating responsibilities within the government clearly assigned; and that the sectors not be so small and subdivided that scarce manpower resources are scattered in a profession of ministries, since this magnifies problems of coordination.
106

Objectives of Sector Analysis

Sector analysis is concerned with the examination & assessment of the resources, needs, problems and opportunities in individual sectors of the economy, for the purposes of :
Assisting consideration of economy wide policies and strategies
Enabling judgements to be made on sector development policies

and strategies that will enhance the contribution of the sector to the countrys economic development. Determining investment priorities in the sector as a crucial step toward identifying specific projects and any additional preinvestment studies required. Evaluating the capacity of principal institutions in the sector to implement desired policies, programs and projects

107

Contd
Countries faces complex questions, and answers offered without the help of sector analysis can give rise to poor policies or ill considered investments. One reason for this is that everything is related to everything else. For instance investment in roads will affect

Ability of farmers to transport crops to market Ability of traders to transport goods into the country side Demand for steel and cement Size of the governments recurrent budget(for maintenance) Demand for trucks and buses Tax yield from fuel and so on

Sector analysis is indispensable for residing these questions of choice and priority and of interconnection among projects.
108

Contd
A basic purpose of sector analysis is, therefore, to bridge the gap between the macroeconomics of country level policies and investment programs and the microeconomics of individual projects. It promotes top down and bottom up activity in several ways: It complements macroeconomics work by analysing the effects on the sector and on projects within the sector, of such general policy variables as the exchange rate, tax structure, wage policies and interest rates. It provides estimates of output and employment potential and investment requirements for the sector as a whole; these are essential inputs into the central planning agency's decisions regarding the functional investment program and priorities. Helps to ensure that individual projects are selected and designed on the basis of a sectors needs and priorities, and that policy and institutional changes necessary for good performance at the project or microeconomic, level are identified. To determine the impact of a sector on the development of other sectors and to ensure consistency in policy and investment recommendations from one sector to another. It cannot furnish clear criteria for the allocation of investment funds among sectors.
109

Contd
A kind of analysis required in a sector varies from year to year and from country to country depending on the current state of knowledge about the sector; relative importance of the sector ; complexity of its developmental problems; current operational concerns and circumstances Despite great variations in specifics, however, most sector analysis falls into one of the two broad types: 1. General analysis of entire sector (important sub-sectors) 2. Special studies of particular topics within a sector

110

Contd
For many years governments as well as WB believed that a comprehensive survey was required from time to time to provide a broad analysis of the medium to long term strategy and policy options in a sector or major sub-sector such surveys assessed
Existing potentials and the changes in them needed to meet a

sectors objectives, As well as, the state of physical infrastructure, productive facilities and institutions in the sector and improvements needed The total level of investment expenditures required to meet the objectives and within this total, they identified high priority projects and any pre-investment studies needed to move the projects forward.
111

Education Sector

112

Characteristics of the sector

Education was once regarded primarily as a means of raising political and social consciousness and of supplying the trained manpower needed for the production processes of a modern economy. By the early 1970s, the prevailing view of development had widened; to the concern for greater production was added a concern for human welfare and alleviation of poverty. Education came to be seen as a basic human need as a means of meeting other basic needs, and as an activity that sustain and accelerates overall development.

113

 Now it is recognized that human resource development is

essential for growth, prosperity and to effective use of physical capital. So, education is an integral component of all development efforts. Education must cover wide spectrum in content and form, general education is as essential for the achievement of development objectives as training in specific skills. Developing countries are educating their population than ever before. All governments have pledged to provide basic education to their citizens.

Many countries have achieved UPE Enrolment ratios have risen at unprecedented rate Public spending in the sector has steadily increased

114

 Earnest efforts to improve efficiency and quality of education Attempts to increase relevance of education to national needs have been

made

Yet
250 million children and 600 million adults have had little or no

access to education Educational opportunities are inequitably distributed Dropout and repetition rate are high Quality of education is quite often poor Graduates frequently find that what they have to offer is not what employees want(mismatch) Governments rush to expand education but overlook the recurrent cost requirement.
115

Economic aspects
Education is a productive investment
Individual productivity and earnings Improves health, hygiene, nutrition and fertility rate

Rate of return

116

Social aspects
Increased enrolment 1/3 of world children not enrolled

reach grade 4
In developing countries only 1/3 achieve literacy Drop out rate and repetition common among; Poor socio-economic background Rural areas and Female

117

Financial aspects
Public spending roused in real terms but below that for the developed countries

Education gets the largest share of the national budget

More than 90% goes to recurrent costs The bulk of expenditure is from public funds

118

Institutional aspects

Education the most sizeable public activity Decisions must be taken on educational policy issues Need to improve administration and management Senior managers are usually drawn from the teaching profession Relationships between various levels not well defined Planning is difficult because information is usually inadequate Concern more for quantitative expansion rather than qualitative aspects
119

Development objectives
Governments should have five principal objectives:
Provision of basic education to all children as quickly as resources , both

financial and human, permit; and ultimately, development of a comprehensive system of education at all levels and for all age groups. More equitable distribution of educational opportunities and reduction of existing inequalities based on sex, economic status and geography Greater internal efficiency of the educational system, through a reduction of the waste of resources caused by students dropping out or repeating grades, and improved quality of education Greater external efficiency of the educational system, through an increase in the relevance of schooling to the job market, so that students are equipped with the knowledge and skills needed to find employment. Development and maintenance of an institutional capacity to formulate and carry out educational policy and to plan, analyse, manage and evaluate education and training programs and projects at all levels.

120

Policy issues
Private financing Fees Student loans Private schools Vocational training Community involvement Improving educational opportunities School location planning Increasing utilisation Improving efficiency Quantitative external efficiency Quantitative internal efficiency Qualitative efficiency
121

The Project Cycle

122

The project cycle

Identification

Evaluation

Preparation

Implementation

Appraisal

Negotiation

123

Project Identification
The first phase of the cycle is concerned with identifying project ideas that appear to represent a high priority use of resources to achieve an important development objective.
Generation(conceiving) of project idea .One can distinguish two levels where project ideas are born: the macro-level and the micro-level.

124

Project ideas at the macro level emanate from:

National, sectorial or regional plans, policies and strategies supplemented by special studies, sometimes called opportunity studies, which is conducted with the objective of translating national and sectoral , sub

sectoral and regional programs into specific project. General surveys, regional studies, master plans and statistical publications which indicate directly or indirectly investment opportunities. Constraints on the development process due to shortage of essential infrastructure, facilities, problems in the balance of payments etc Government decision to correct social and regional inequalities or to satisfy basic need of the people through development projects. A possible external threat that necessitates projects aiming at achieving self sufficiency in basic materials, energy, transportation and other strategic needs Unusual events such as droughts, floods, earthquakes, hostilities etc Multilateral or bilateral development agencies and as a result of regional or international agreements. Individual inspiration, institutions, workshops and development experiences of other countries
125

At the micro level, project idea can emanate from:

The identification of unsatisfied demands or needs The existence of unused or underutilised natural or human

resources and the perception of opportunities for their efficient use. The need to remove shortages in essential materials, services, or facilities that constrain the development effort. Initiative by local private or public entrepreneurs who wish to take advantage of opportunities they perceive or who are responding to government incentives. The desire of local groups or organisations to enhance their economic status and improve their welfare. The necessity to complement or expand investments previously undertaken. From foreign firms either in response to government investment incentives or because they consider local production a better way to secure substantial share of the domestic market for their products.

126

Screening and justification of selected projects

It is an initial review of project ideas and concepts to see if they should be advanced or abandoned at an early stage. It is very essential to have some clue on whether a project is likely to be feasible (viable) prior to spending time, financial, material and human resources. In order to screen out the bad the not so promising ideas, we have to carry out some kind of pre-feasibility analysis so as to concentrate ones scarce project preparation resources for more promising projects.

127

Some of the reasons for rejections of a project are:

Inappropriate technology in relation to the project objectives or to local capabilities Excessive risk Inadequate demand for the proposed output Inadequate supply of raw materials or skills Over ambitious design in relation to managerial capabilities Excessive capital and recurrent costs of operation in relation to available finance. Excessive social or environmental costs relative to the expected benefits Lack of commitment of the intended beneficiaries or lack of political support from key authorities The size and nature of the demand (market) for the product/service, and the intended or expected beneficiary groups or target areas. The alternative technical solutions(packages) available, with corresponding estimates of outputs, including identification of technology already in local use and their potential for improvement The availability of the principal physical and human resources and skills that will be required In order of magnitude of costs for both the initial investment and for the continued operation (rates of return) Any institutional constraints or policy issues likely to have an important impact on the proposed project.
128

Examples of criteria for ranking projects

1.
2.

Extent

Number of people affected by the project Geographic area affected by the project

Economic and financial

Potential economic benefits to the country or region Potential financial benefits to local communities

3.

Environmental
Conservation of natural resources and more sustainable land use protection of natural resources (e.g. forests)

4.

Social
Poverty alleviation Assistance to disadvantaged groups

5.
6.

Policy
Is the project in line with national policies?

Resources
Availability of human resources to implement project Availability of funding from government and /or donors

7.

Success or failures
What are the chances of the project to successfully meeting its objectives? What degrees of the risk are associated with the project that may affect its implementation?

8.

Support
Political support for project Community support and demand for project
129

Project Identification Brief(PIB)

It identifies the constraints and means for overcoming them and makes the rough and ready assessment of the costs and benefits. This report includes proposals for its preparation, a time table in particular which may provide for the execution before project preparation, and pre-investment studies(which shades light on prospective school map, demand for education, educational financing, employment opportunities for graduates and etc). These studies constitute the first phase of project reparation.

130

 This brief report does not include sophisticated and detailed

analysis of the different aspects of the project which are done at a later stage of the project(preparation). However, it may include information on such items as:
a) The development objectives of the project
b) Basic features of the project, and alternative to be considered

further in project design (preparation stage) c) Areas of particular attention such as institutional, policy and other issues that need to be addressed during preparation, appraisal or implementation. d)Identification of constraints and means for over coming them e)Assessment of costs and benefits f) The step necessary to prepare the project and human and other resources to be employed
131

Project Formulation(Preparation)
Once a project idea has passed the identification test it must be advanced to the point at which a firm decision can be made whether or not to proceed with it. The success of a project is directly related to its success in solving the problem it was designed to solve. It is not only a question of doing things right but doing right thingseffectively, efficiently and economically. Project formulation is a systematic and logical way of developing cost effective solutions to development problems. Furthermore, it tries to ensure that once the problem is solved it remains solved.
132

Contd
A development project proposal will always contain the following elements:
I. What is the problem?
II. Which group of people will benefit from the solution?

III. To which development objective will the project, contribute?

IV. What is the immediate objective(s) of the project?

V. What will the project actually produce(outputs) to enable the

achievement of that immediate objective(s)? VI. How will it produce these outputs? What activities will be undertaken? VII. What financial, material and human resources(inputs) are need? VIII. What is the institutional framework?
133

Context and Justification

Before starting to develop the technical aspects of a project it is useful to describe the context in which it is going to be operating and to provide valid justification for a project.

A concise description of the major problem to which the project tries to provide a solution will be given: its causes, its components, its symptoms.It will describe why the project is necessary.
Previous projects (or phases) in the same or in connected areas will be mentioned including the links between previous projects and the present one.
134

Cont.
What strengths can be built on and what are the weaknesses the project will have to overcome or live with.

135

Beneficiaries
The immediate beneficiaries can be different from the ultimate target beneficiaries if the project operates through a two=or multi-step approach. The beneficiaries and the satisfaction of their needs is the major motivating element to hear in mind when preparing a project.the needs of beneficiaries must be compatible with the projects objectives.

The geographical of the project (national,local ) will be indicated.

Terms like target group, target audience target population are often used instead of beneficiaries,
136

Development Objectives
In the context of formulating a development project development objective is used to describe a desired end; a solution to development problem. In project proposals a distinction is made between development objectives and immediate objectives.

The development objective is normally the higher level objective one set up in the hierarchy the project or immediate objective.The immediate objective is the micro objective and the development objective is the macro objective.
137

Cont.
Again the words macro and micro are used precisely in some contexts to label very specific concepts.HAere they are relative concepts. Macro could mean the country level and micro the regional level.In an organization macro could be organizational policy and micro could be departmental or unit policy.We are all part of a wider context.As individuals we might consider ourselves to be micro but for those we supervise we might be macro

138

Cont.
In the formulation of development projects macro will normally mean country or regional level,refering to a development objective usually with long-term results and beyond one projects scope and time-scale. A project usually contibutes to the solution of a broad development problem.

139

Immediate Objectives
The immediate objective will usually be a short term objective which contributes to the achievement of the long term development objective. It describes the situation that will exist and the results achieved at the end of the project. A project can have more than one immediate objective, perhaps two or three, but one should question a project document with a whole list of objectives.

140

Cont.
Immediate objectives should be expressed in concrete, measurable terms answering as factually as possible the question. What will be the situation at the end of the project compared with pre-project situation?

Measurable can also mean that something will exist that can be seen, touched ,smelt, heard, tasted? In some cases expressing an objective in measureable terms may require some imagination. It might also require establishing indicators of success. There may be in some cases an intermediate objective.
141

Outputs
Outputs are the results of project activities ( services made available, infrastructure built, financial products, human, resources trained) intended to achieve the immediate objectives.

Outputs are tangible and visible

142

Activities
Activities are the action taken to produce the outputs Activities take place over time and are coordinated to be complete by the date required in the description of the output.

They have to be presented in order of sequence, They are often expressed in the form of charts.

143

Calendar
A planning calendar (possibly visualized ) indicating the beginning of each of the projects activities,their sequencing and duration has to be included in most project documents.

144

Inputs
Inputs are the financial (budgets),material (equipment, logistics ) and human resources (project team, partner organizations )necessary for carrying out the activities.

There may be at various levels; international, regional, national, institutions ,the ultimate beneficiaries. It is necessary to indicate who is providing the inputs.Some donors require separate budgets for each source of input.

145

Cont.
If the project is to be sustainable, capable of carrying on after the completion date of the project, then the identificatio of key local resources is likely to be crucial to the achievement of sustainability.Similarly if the ultimate beneficiaries are, or include women and children, then making provision for their invovement is an essential input.

146

Cont.
Make input requirements as detailed as possible and justify any specific requirements to avoid,for example,unsatisfactory substitutions of equipment at a later stage.Use your imagination and make reasnable guess estimates rather than leave blanks. At least any one reviewing your document will have some idea of what you had in mind. A project proposal should be self-sufficient; there can be no guarantee that it will be discussed with you before a decision is taken.

147

Organization and Administration

The projects internal organization as well as its relations to partner organizations have to be expressed in hierarchical and operational terms. Are the collaborations with institutions or individuals, permanent or occasional, contractual or informal. Indicate where the project is located; headquarters and /or decentralized units.

Describe the monitoring and control procedures during the projects implementation

148

Assumptions
Assumptions on which the project is based have to be described as well as the worse scenario if assumptions are found to be wrong

149

Legal considerations
Are there legal texts which are of any importance to the project.Laws, regulations ,standards, in the field of finance, labour, customs, insurance ,taxes, etc.

150

Communication
The project will produce information reports, data, minutes, indicate who will produce them, what they will contain, when they will be produced for what use, and to they will be sent.

151

Outline for proposal

1.Title 2Context and justification/Background 3.Beneficiaries 4.OBJECTIVES 5.OUTPUTS 6.ACTIVITIES 7.CALENDAR 8.INPUTS 9.ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION
152

CONT.
10.ASSUMPTIONS 11.LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS 12.COMMUNICATION 13.MONITORING

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THANK YOU.

154

Project Appraisal
After the completion of project preparation the stage of project appraisal sets in. Appraisal involves a comprehensive and systematic assessment of all aspects of the proposed project.Appraisal is the responsibility of investment or financial decision makers.

155

Cont.
The proposed project should provide adequate answers to the following questions: .Does the project fit into the development processes of the country and goes in line with national development policies? .Does the project represent high-priority use of the countrys local resources? .Does the project contribute to maximum realization of the objectives?
156

Cont.
Detailed appraisal include: Assessment of what urgent need the project meets The cost effectiveness of the project The size and timing of the project and Other alternatives if the project is not implemented The project is seen against a number of criteria, which measure its acceptability. The most frequently used criteria are:

157

Technical Appraisal
The technical aspect considers the questions of: Physical scale; Layout Location of facilities The technology to be used The cost of operating project facilities and services The availability of raw materials and The projects impact on the physical environment

158

Economic Appraisal
Appraisal of the economic aspect: Focuses on cost benefit analysis Aims at efficiency and Assessing the input of project toward the development objectives of the country

159

Institutional Appraisal
From the institutional point of view appraisal aims at ensuring: The availability of skilled and adequate project staff The existence of competent management and supervisory personnel and Sound organizational structure for the effective implementation and efficient operation of the project

160

Commercial Appraisal
The commercial side focuses on ensuring whether thorough investigations have been made on the markets for: The output and The inputs of the products

161

Financial Appraisal
Appraisal of the financial aspect of the project amount to verification of: Availability of the required funds Sufficiency of available funds Uninterupted flw of funds to insure timely completion of the project.

162

Social Appraisal
Social appraisal involves: Finding out the effects of the project on individuals,communities or particular groups and Identifying beneficiaries and losers from the project

163

Environmental Appraisal
The environmental appraisal: Assesses the possible impacts of the project on the environment and focuses on attentions given to minimizing or avoiding damage to the environment where the project is to be implemented.

164

Negotiation
Negotiation is a process whereby two or more parties voluntarily discuss their differences and attempt to reach a joint decision on their common concerns. Negotiation is the fourth stage of the project cycle and it might be necessary where the owners of the project (spenders) and the sponsors (financers) are two different bodies.

165

Factors that influence

The with the greatest influence on the outcome of negotiations are power and information. In the negotiation of education project, most of the power would seem a priori to be in the hands of financiers, because they have the resources that are most difficult to come by. A Finance has additional power by virtue of its leading role in the countrys development policy.But educators also hold trump cards.After all,education is an important sector of national life and a large consumer of public monies.
166

Cont.
In order to be convincing they arguments must : Consider the objectives pursued by the other partyministry of Finance or external aid source. Be based on a coherent analysis of reality, both quantitative and qualitative, preferably relying on objective data.

167

Cont.
The argument put forward by each partner at the negotiating table are a function of available information on: The project and the problems to which it responds; The countrys economic and financial context; The general objectives pursued by the other party; The goals it expects to reach; and The margin of manoeuvre it has in the negotiation

168

Preparing for Negotiation

In order to negotiate a project with the best chance of success, the most important point is serious advance preparation. Four points are essential for good negotiation: Knowing the project well Knowing the goals to be achieved and the admisible margin of flexibility Knowing the other partner Exploring possible areas of agreement
169

Cont.
Reduce tension Establish rapport

Determine the order of business

Describe what you are seeking Avoid threats

Listen to understand Use questions

Sum up Dead lock
170

Cont.
Break Doomsday

Changing the subject

Bring up a simple non-contentious issue Look for signals

171

Proposal
Proposal Condition offer

172

Project Implementation
Planning and Managing Project Implementation Selecting and/or Establishing project implementation unit Develop measureable objectives for implementation Planning Implementation Estimating Work Times Establishing Project Implementation Schedule

173

Implementation unit
Integral part Independent

174

Measurable objectives
Setting standard of performance Identify and list key areas,typical tasks and activities

Set priorities
control

175

Planning implementation
Budgeting Bottlenecks

Testing assumptions
Accountability Measurement of project progress

176

schedule
Encourage planning Guideline for project execution

Establish day today priorities

Control of progress Achieve better resource allocation

Minimizes project costs

177

Features of good schedule

All work items included Sequence of work is clearly shown

Easy to understand
Easy to revise important items are highlighted

Constraints easily detected

178

Types of project scheduling techniques

Milestone chart GANTT CHART

Net work scheduling

179

Activity

Starting time

Finishing time

1.Clear site 2.Level site 3.Excavate foundation

March 1

March 7

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181

Net work scheduling

Critical path scheduling(CPS) Program Evaluation and Review Technique=PERT

0-----------------------------0 Tail Head

182

Problems in project Implementation

Financial problems Management problems

Technical problems
Political problems Other problems

183

Success in Project Implementation

Political commitment Simplicity of Design

Careful Prepartion
Good Management Other factors

184

Monitoring &Evaluation
Monitoring is a continuous process of gathering, analyzing and interpreting of informationof the daily use of inputs and their conversion into out puts in order to enable timely adjustement of the development programme/project when necessary.Hence it is a basic part of implementation management.

185

Evaluation
Evaluation-is on the other hand, a systematically and periodical gathering ,analyzing and interpreting of inputs ,information on the effects and impacts of a development programme project in order that it may be adjusted where necessary. In other words ,it is an assessment of the functioning of the project activities

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Differences
Monitoring evaluation

Objectives

.Determine efficiency and legitimacy of application and use of inputs Facilitate an adjustment of activity plans, time schedules or budgets .

Determine whether objectives were realistic given the capacities and circumstances Undertake review of things done i.e to assess the impact of the project activities.

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cont
Monitoring Evaluation

Reference period/frequency

Takes place during execution of project Continuous feed back system Focus on inputs ,process, output and work plan

carried out periodically Focus on effectiveness ,relevance and cost effectiveness

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Cont.
Monitoring Evaluation

Primary users

It is a tool for project managers to use it in judging and influencing the progress of implementation
Primarily quantitative

Results are used by funding agencies and other relevant institution in future programmes/projects design
Primarily qualitative

Data gathered

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Complementary features of monitoring and evaluation

Monitoring Evaluation

Implementation oriented Tracks results Assess intermediate result Focus on timeliness Emphasis on multi-level results Informs budgeting Strengthens accountability for managing results Essential for program implementation & improvements Can use disaggregated data

Policy oriented Explain results Assess attributes Focus in rigour Emphasis on final results Informs broad resources allocation Strengthens accountability for results themselves Essential for strategy development May need aggregated data

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Types of monitoring
Program/physical progress monitoring Finance progress monitoring

Beneficiary contact monitoring

Management/administration monitoring

191

Program/Physical progress Monitoring

Directed to assisting managers in checking whether activities in the project are up to schedule.

If they are not managers need to be able to assess how significant the delay is and whether remedial action needs to be taken. Managing physical progress can be linked to managing time

192

continued
The simplest method of physical progress monitoring is by means of milestones. MILSTONES are significant events in project implementation. It is the event marking the completion of various critical activities. The number and type of milestones used for a project will depend on the level of management.

193

continued
Milestone Original Plan Revised plan Date Achieved

Award Tender Completion of Building Completion of Staff Recruitment Completion of Pilot Phase

April 2010 September 2010 October 2010 January 2011

-Dec.2011 January 2011 April 2011

April 2010

194

Cont.
The other items to be considered during pro gram/physical monitoring are: Results of activities/project out puts Project inputs Progress of program according to objectives The way the program is managed and style of work Background information on target population

195

Financial progress monitoring

Cost reporting system which provides the information required in a timely fashion. This might include:

Project budget and expenditure

Staff salary Cash flow analysis

196

Beneficiary contact monitoring

To know whether the outputs/services provided are being accepted by the intended beneficiaries and how they are being integrated in to the existing system.

197

Cont.
Beneficiary contact monitoring should answer the following questions: Who has access to project services? How do the react to these stimuli? How do the stimuli affect their behaviour and performance To what extent did persons with access understand the available services from the project?

198

Cont.
To what extent did those who them as relevant try the services?

Did those who tried the services continue using them?

199

Management/Administration monitoring
This looks at: Staff/personnel issues Vehicles Supplies

200

Project Evaluation
Ex-ante evaluation Mid-term or on-going evaluation

Terminal evaluation
Ex-post evaluation

201

Who conducts evaluation

Internal External

202

Project Impact Analysis

Why to analyse impacts? How and what to analyse?

>establishing the activities being analysed >analysis of implementation >assessing project achievements >conclusions and recommendations

203

Unit Outline
General Policy and Law Issues
Module 1: Introduction to Policy Module 2: Evolution of Policy

Module 3: Psychology Module 4: Summary

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Introduction to Policy
Learning Objectives

Students should be able to:

Understand application of policy to different disciplines Conceptualize the public policy cycle Gain an understanding of policy terminology and introductory concepts

206

Introduction to Policy
Definition

Policy is:

A plan or course of action defined by an authoritative entity such as a government, political party, or business, intended to influence and determine decisions, actions, and other matters for achieving a perceived goal or set of goals.

207

Introduction to Policy
Definition

Policy is:

A dynamic process that occurs over time Ideologically informed and culturally determined Found at many organizational levels Associated with the appearance of conflict Dependent on language deployed as tactic Informed by practice or technique

208

Introduction to Policy
Types of Policies

Public Organizational Social Information Security Technical Monetary Insurance

209

Introduction to Policy
Examples of Policy Vehicles

Policy vehicles are different manifestations where policies can exist Some examples include:

Constitution Legislation Laws Social Norms Technical Standards

210

Public Policy Cycle

5 Evaluation

1 Setting an

Agenda

Implementatio n

2 Formulation

3 Adoption

211

Setting an Agenda

An agenda is:

A plan of action, course or direction determined by short-term (critical) and long-term priorities based on values.
Assessing which priorities should be met based on resource capacity (time, energy, money) Especially important when demand > capacity. Determining tasks that will fulfill priorities Setting tasks in terms of sequence Defining complexity of tasks

Involves:

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Formulation

Formulation

The development of effective and acceptable courses of action for addressing agenda items and is determined by agenda and problem definition
Valid Efficient Implementable Likely to be authorized

Effective formulation (Analytical Aspect):

Acceptable formulation (Political Aspect):

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Formulation: Analytical Aspect

Analytical Aspect

Involves finding the optimal solution to a problem

Policy and technical analysts Ideally informed & educated

Actors

Based on objective policy and technical analysis

E.g. means, behavior, cost, implementation strategy, and potential consequences or results Data collection and analysis Clear articulation of policy alternatives

Process involves:

214

Formulation: Political Aspect Political Aspect

Involves gaining authorization for policy Accountable decision makers Ideally responsive and able to exercise sound judgment

Actors

Use policy and technical analysis results to make judgments regarding:

Goals Trade-offs Value priorities Weighing overall effects

Compromise Majority building

Process involves:

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Budgeting

A budget is a plan for expenditure and procurement of monetary funds Financial resources are necessary to implement policy i.e.

Employee time, equipment, and supplies.

Forces decisions to be made based on values Ideal policy optimizes the use of funds to obtain maximum results

A budget is a limiting factor (constraint)

216

Implementation

Implementation is:

Carrying out or putting into effect formulated policy What occurs between the expectations of created policy and perceived results
Organization, Interpretation, & Application Top-down: Authoritative and Elitist Bottom-up: Democratic and Participatory

Process

Approaches

217

Good implementation is imperative for success, but also depends on policy quality.

Implementation: Sound Policy, Well Implemented

Sound Policy, Well Implemented Success Examples:

Moon launch by NASA under Kennedy Revenue sharing under Nixon Head Start under Johnson Energy conservation programs under Carter (although the rest of the energy policy failed). The Reagan Revolution quite successfully shifted income and promoted growth as intended but ran up a monumental debt burden which threatens the long-term prognosis.

218

Implementation: Sound Policy, Poorly Implemented

Sound Policy, Poorly Implemented Failure Examples:

Carter's energy resources program may have sensibly identified coal and gas as transitional fuels to a renewable age, but suffered from confused and contradictory implementation. Operation Breakthrough may have been a sound housing technology policy initiated by Nixon, but could not be successfully implemented locally due to poor program definition, local building standards, labor strife, and inadequate funding.

219

Implementation: Bad Policy, Well Implemented

Bad Policy, Well Implemented Rare Success Example:

Commissioner Robert Moses of New York was a genius at implementation, whether the policy was well formulated or not. He could build almost anything --- his way --- : highways, parks, housing, public buildings. Moses completely understood his mission and followed through doggedly and swiftly. He worked cagily with a general mandate, but was criticized as being unaccountable, especially to those left out or displaced by his physical development programs. But he got the job done and was not held accountable for side-effects.

220

Implementation: Bad Policy, Poorly Implemented

Bad Policy, Poorly Implemented Failure x2 Example:

The War on Poverty under President Johnson suffered just about every failure except budgetary deprivation. The administrator, Sergeant Shriver, was astonished at his nebulous mandate and sporadic executive support, given little idea as to what to do or how to do it. The policy foundered. The Swine Flu epidemic led to a national inoculation policy by President Gerald Ford suffered the same fate, but at a much smaller scale. It turned out the epidemic was just overreaction.

221

Implementation: Success Factors

Clarity and simplicity Theoretical soundness Clear delineation of duties and responsibilities Commitment of leadership to policy success Complementarity to overall mission Specification of technical and budgetary needs Evaluation and feedback throughout the implementation process at time intervals Established and respected deadlines Absence of conflicting or contradictory policies

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Evaluation

Evaluation is the careful examination and judgment of the merits and weaknesses of a policy. Types:

Process Evaluation: Occurs when policy is being implemented and attempts to determine changes that can be made for improvement by implementation participants. Summative Evaluation: Looks at overall effectiveness after the policy has been implemented.

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Evaluation: Methods

No Evaluation Informal Evaluation

Anecdotes or stories
Careful, truth seeking feedback Empirical, designed, and commissioned

Substantive Evaluation

Formal Research Evaluation

Scientific Research Evaluation

Statistical, comparative, and causal

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Evaluation: Formal Evaluation Steps

1.

Specification: What are the goals? Criteria? Purposes? Upon

what indicators is this policy, program, process to be evaluated? What is the bottom line?

2.

Measurement: What information do we need by which to

assess the objectives specified? Recognize that a single anecdote can carry more weight than a bunch of careful data.

3.

Analysis: The use of data to draw conclusions. Can range from

quantitative techniques, comparative studies, and carefully designed surveys. Care must be given when using opinion, impressions, and anecdotes.

4.

Recommendations: What should be done next? Terminate?

Replicate? Amplify? Adjust? Cut or expand? Evaluation research inevitably is called upon to be highly prescriptive. However, implementing changes is another matter.

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226

Evaluation: Formal Evaluation Key Questions Was the policy adequately formulated? What were the goals? Was the underlying causal model (often unspecified, but may be glaringly revealed now) adequate? Was the implementation competent? Well organized? Effective? Timely? Coordinated? Well led? Was the budget adequate? Was the program cost effective? What were the units of goal indicator achieved per unit of budget? What are marginal returns: higher or lower? Is the program worth the expenditure? There should be a specific "client analysis": Who was helped? Identify and explain the client group. Were expectations of benefits met? Who is prepared to defend the program?

Evaluation: Success Factors

Evaluation should be non-biased Feedback is necessary for evaluation to be useful

Should include participants from various levels of implementation

Organizations should be adaptive, resilient, and responsive to effectively incorporate evaluation feedback

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Summary Policy is used to define courses of action based on values and mission of an authoritative entity. Policies are used in many different areas. The public policy cycle has 5 components:
1. 2.

3.
4.

5.

Setting an Agenda: determining goals Formulation: development of courses of action Budgeting: defining constraints and resources Implementation: carrying out the policy Evaluation: examining implementation and modifying agenda

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What is LFA?
LFA is a systematic planning procedure for complete project cycle management

It is a problem solving approach which takes into account the views of all stakeholders It also agrees on the criteria for project success and lists the major assumptions

History of LFA
Developed in response to poor planning and

monitoring of Development projects The first logical framework developed for USAID at the end of 1960s GTZ was responsible for the development of ZOPP or Zielorientierte Projekt Planung NORAD made a significant contribution in 1990 with their handbook

LOGICAL FRAMEWORK MATRIX

Narrative Summary GOAL Verifiable Indicators (OVI) Means of Verification (MOV) Important Assumptions

PURPOSE

OUTPUTS

ACTIVITIES

Inputs

KEY FEATURES OF LOGFRAME MATRIX

The LOGFRAME MATRIX is a participatory Planning, Monitoring & Evaluation tool whose power depends on the degree to which it incorporates the full range of views of intended beneficiaries and others who have a stake in the programme design. It is a tool for summarizing the key features of a programme and is best used to help programme designers and stakeholders

ummary of the logical framework

Intervention Logic
Goal
The higher level objective towards which the project is

expected to contribute (mention target groups) Purpose The effect which is expected to be achieved as the result of the project. Outputs The results that the project management should be able to guarantee (mention target groups) Activities The activities that have to be undertaken by the project in order to produce outputs.

Cause-effect relationship among objectives at several levels

Goal Purpose

Outputs Activities Inputs

under full control of project management

beyond control of project management

Summary of the logical framework

Assumptions and Preconditions
Assumptions
Important events, conditions or decisions outside the

control of the project which must prevail the goal. Important events, conditions or decisions outside control of the project management necessary for the achievement of the purpose. Important events, conditions or decisions outside control of the project management necessary for the production of outputs. Important events, conditions, decisions outside control of the project management necessary for the start of the project.

ummary of the logical framework

Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI)
Goal
Measures (direct or indirect) to verify to what extent the

goal is fulfilled. Purpose Measures (direct or indirect) to verify to what extent the purpose is fulfilled. Outputs Measures (direct or indirect) to verify to what extent the outputs are produced.
Activities (Inputs) Goods, people and services necessary to undertake the activities

Summary of the logical framework

Means of verification (MOV)
Goal
The sources of data necessary to verify status of

goal level indicators.

Purpose
The sources of data necessary to verify status of

purpose level indicators.

Outputs
The sources of data necessary to verify status of

output level indicators.

Activities
The sources of data necessary to verify status of

activity level indicators.

Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Indicators must be valid, reliable, precise, cost-

effective and stated independently from other levels.

Indicators should make clear how the target group

will benefit from the realisation of outputs.

Indicators should be specific in terms of:
Quality (what?)

Q Q

Quantity (how much?)

Target Group (who?) - T Place (where?)

Time (when, how long?) - T

Objectively Verifiable Indicators

The process of defining indicators forces us to clarify

our objectives. A good indicator at this level is, a. Plausible project measuring what is important in the

b. Attributable measuring changes caused by the project

c. Cost-effective involving data that may be collected and analyzed inexpensively

d. Independent not inherent to the project

e. Targeted
f. Verifiable

how much.., what kind of.., by when

to reach agreement

Key Features of Logframe Matrix

(contd)
Develop a common understanding of the

expectations of a programme by delineating a hierarchy of aims; Define indicators of success and establish criteria for monitoring and evaluation; Define critical assumptions on which the programme is based; and Identify means of verifying programme accomplishments

CORE CONCEPT OF LOGFRAME MATRIX: MEANS AND END LOGIC

The main concept underlying the Logical Framework is means and end. The better the means and end linkages between each level of aims, the better the programme design.

By definition, each programme has a if-then or means-and-end logic embedded in it. If we produce certain results under certain conditions, then we can expect to achieve certain other outcomes.

LogFrame-Horizontal logic
Aims measured by indicators through information collected and presented in specified means of verification

THE LOGIC OF A PROGRAMME: A SET OF LINKED HYPOTHESES

then

GOAL
PURPOSE
then

if then

OUTPUTS

if

if

ACTIVITIES

PLAN DOWNWARDS
PLAN DOWNWARDS Goal
Purpose Assumptions Outputs Assumptions Activities Assumptions

Assumptions
Inputs

AND THEN THINK UPWARDS

THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORK MATRIX

Clear statement of:
What we can accomplish (outputs) and
The important results we expect in the short to medium-term (purpose) and in the long term (goal)

Means of verification
The specific sources from which the status of each of the indicators can be ascertained

ASSUMPTIONS AND RISKS

Assumptions and risks are external conditions that are outside the control of the programme. The achievement of aims depends on whether or not assumptions hold true and the risks do not materialize. If cause and effect is the core concept of good programme design, necessary and sufficient conditions are the corollary. The sufficient conditions between the levels in the hierarchy of aims are the Assumptions. This is the external logic of the programme.

Assumptions and Risks (contd)

When working on a programme, we make assumptions about the degree of uncertainty between different levels of aims. The lower the uncertainty that certain assumptions will hold true, the stronger the programme design. Any experienced manager will agree that the assumptions - the failing assumptions - can derail a programme as often as poorly executed outputs.

Assumptions and Risks (contd)

Logframe demands that all hypotheses, assumptions and risks relevant to a programme are made explicit. By implication, this then further demands that the appropriate action is considered (and if necessary taken) before problems materialise.
How important are the assumptions How big are the risks

Should the programme be redesigned?

Should elements of the proposed programme be

abandoned?

ALGORITHM TO ASSESS EXTERNAL FACTORS Is the external factor important?

Yes
Will it be realised?
Almost certainly
Likely Unlikely

No
Do not include in logical framework
Do not include in logical framework
Include in logical framework as Assumption

(e.g. as the result of another project by external donor)

(fourth column)
Is it possible to redesign the country Programme to influence the external factor?

yes
Redesign the programme :

add activities and/or results

change programme purpose

The assumption is a killer assumption. From a technical point of view the programme is not feasible, unless the political authority finds a solution to get around the assumption or transform it into an acceptable assumption.

No

LOGFRAME MATRIX SERVES THE FOLLOWING FUNCTIONS

A tool for planning a logical set of interventions

A tool for appraising a Programme document A concise summary of the Programme

A tool for monitoring progress made with

regard to delivery of outputs and activities A tool for evaluating impact of Programme outputs, e.e. progress in achieving purpose and goal.

Thank you.

Ayalew Shibeshi Associate Professor of Educational Planning &Management E-mail:ayalewshibeshi@yahoo.com

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Thank you

264

Thank you

265