The Binomial Distribution The five key properties in short form are.

n fixed identical trials the trials are independent each trial has two outcomes S (Success) and F (Failure). P (S ) = p and P (F ) = q where q = 1 p. we wish to find the probability of r successes in n trials. The formula for the binomial distribution is n! r nr P (r) = Cn,r p q = pr q nr r!(n r)! where n is the number of trials, r is the number of success, p is the probability of success on each trial and q = 1 p.

Note: this formula makes sense because Cn,r is the number of ways there can be r successes in n trials, and pr q nr is the probability of getting one outcome with r success and n r failures. Note: the labels Success and Failure are arbitrary, and what we label Failure could actually be a desirable outcome. For example the gender of a child that is born, one gender would be labeled success and the other failure.

Example. (p. 243 # 8) A survey reported that 70% of all U.S. households have cellular phones. If you randomly selected 11 households, what is the probability that (a) each of the 11 households has a cellular phone? (b) more than four households have a cellular phone? (c) fewer than five households do not have a cellular phone? (d) more than seven households do not have a cellular phone? For future reference note that Cn,n = 1 and also Cn,0 = 1. Hence the probability of n successes in n trials is pn and the probability of n failures in n trials is q n.

Hints. (a) P (11) = (0.7)11 = 0.01977 If you found this in your survey, would you question the accuracy of the 70% reported in the survey? You can use Table 3, Appendix II for questions like this, but the tables only have limited values for p available so they cannot be used on many questions. Statistical programs also have built in functions to compute these values. (b) Using the Table (n = 11, p = .7): P (r > 5) = 1 P (r 4) = 1 [P (0) + P (1) + P (2) + P (3) + P (4)] = 1 [.000 + .000 + .001 + .004 + .017] = .978 (c) Using the table (n = 11, p = .3): P (0)+P (1)+P (2)+P (3)+P (4) = .020+.093+.200+.257+.220 = .79 (d) Using the table with (n = 11, p = .3): P (8) + P (9) + P (10) + P (11) = .004 + .001 + .000 + .000 = .005

Example. (p. 245 # 16) A survey finds that 37% of adults are concerned that employers are monitoring phone calls. Use the binomial distribution to find the probability that (a) out of five adults, none is concerned that employers are monitoring calls. (b) out of five adults, all are concerned that employers are monitoring calls. (c) out of five adults, exactly 3 are concerned that employers are monitoring calls. (d) out of five adults, exactly 2 are concerned that employers are monitoring calls. (e) out of five adults, at least one is concerned that employers are monitoring calls.

Hint. Use the binomial formula P (r) = Cn,r pr q nr = n! r!(n r)! pr q nr

Note that (e) is the complementary event to (a). Also, n, p and q are the same for each problem, but the r changes for (a), (b), (c) and (d). Answers: (a) 0.099 (b) 0.007 (c) 0.201 (d) 0. 332 (e) 0.901 For example, (d) is computed as follows P (2) = C5,2(.37)2(.63)3 = 10(.1369)(.250047) = .332