Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
07 June 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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07 June 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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07 June 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
398.50
276.40
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
566
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
265.50
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
324
0.66
COBHAM
269.50
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
280
0.82
MEGGITT
524.50
364.30
534.50
Sell
Sell
498
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1163.00
799.39
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1136
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1307.00
979.50
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
1091
0.71
1694.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1609
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
303.60
173.60
313.40
Neutral
Neutral
Target
301
2.02
INCHCAPE
533.50
316.60
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
551
1.48
LOOKERS
99.00
56.50
110.00
Neutral
Neutral
97
1.23
PENDRAGON
25.00
13.50
26.50
Neutral
Buy
34
1.11
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
303.30
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-830
1.94
700.00
510.60
769.90
Neutral
Buy
837
1.17
60.86
28.00
62.96
Sell
Sell
1.89
316.90
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-142
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1448.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3312
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
515.00
350.00
588.50
Neutral
Neutral
555
0.55
DIAGEO
1900.00
1577.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1675
0.55
SABMILLER
3244.00
2420.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
3725
0.95
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
345.00
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3401
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
317.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
1.23
CARCLO
366.75
356.00
503.00
Neutral
Sell
120
0.73
2413.00
2125.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3272
1.04
226.60
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
292
0.99
1.45
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2750.00
2080.27
2750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4421
VICTREX
1665.00
1185.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1330
1.14
SYNTHOMER
190.60
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
335
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
202.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
249
1.00
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07 June 2013
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Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
93.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
252
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
214.80
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1277
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
305.90
125.30
346.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
596
1.58
1.15
0.51
BELLWAY
1315.00
744.00
1377.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2856
2103.00
1239.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3286
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
172.50
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
407
0.83
1.20
757.00
422.50
778.50
Neutral
Buy
1057
CARILLION
246.50
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
1507
1.12
CLARKE (T)
54.38
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
450
0.82
COSTAIN GROUP
256.00
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1116
0.57
1324.00
1078.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
838
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
909.50
584.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2886
1.01
KELLER
870.00
348.25
978.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2346
1.26
1180.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5371
0.97
65.00
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
1.07
1.39
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
136.25
76.00
142.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
401
580.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4326
0.87
16.63
10.50
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.15
NORCROS
1174.00
529.83
1280.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1999
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
220.00
107.30
238.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
452
1.09
SIG
168.70
84.75
179.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
500
1.79
48.00
46.88
362.50
Neutral
Buy
68
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
93.15
42.72
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1504.00
916.00
1611.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4103
2.01
WOLSELEY
3054.00
2154.34
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5765
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1300.00
994.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
795
0.75
639.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
866
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
120.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
253
1.29
INVENSYS
388.00
198.90
402.70
Neutral
Sell
337
1.41
LAIRD
194.00
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
307
2.13
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1597.00
1149.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1230
1.00
RENISHAW
1715.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2615
1.26
SPECTRIS
2024.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2724
1.52
0.08
0.07
0.13
Neutral
Sell
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
165.50
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
301
1.58
XAAR
640.00
185.00
695.00
Neutral
Sell
225
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
82.25
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
125
1.28
BODYCOTE
535.00
310.30
563.00
Neutral
Buy
629
1.60
CASTINGS
342.63
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
626
0.99
VESUVIUS
372.00
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
991
2.20
FENNER
334.30
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
513
1.42
HALMA
501.00
375.00
538.50
Neutral
Sell
355
0.75
428.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
344
1.37
1235.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5025
1.41
274.80
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
741
1.82
2700.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1327
1.00
265.70
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
229
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
49.50
35.40
87.71
Neutral
Sell
39
SPIRAX-SARCO
2723.00
1903.48
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
1985
0.84
VITEC GROUP
600.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
422
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2220.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2036
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
398.30
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
672
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
262.00
248.60
296.40
Buy
Sell
157
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
363.30
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
188
0.57
TESCO
344.80
301.10
387.75
Neutral
Sell
251
0.68
87.25
19.13
100.50
Neutral
Sell
62
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1825.00
1175.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2048
0.62
CRANSWICK
1100.00
732.50
1127.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2023
0.43
DAIRY CREST
462.90
316.00
503.50
Neutral
Neutral
491
0.94
DEVRO
319.20
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
499
0.32
68.50
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Sell
-180
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
809.50
633.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1505
0.71
2660.00
2038.00
2885.00
Neutral
Neutral
2693
0.58
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07 June 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.75
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.69
458.70
227.50
465.60
Neutral
Sell
340
0.54
1403.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
925
1.27
610.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
278
0.95
41.74
12.67
42.90
Neutral
Neutral
44
1.51
179.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
59
1.13
30.25
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
104
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
312.40
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
480
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
905.00
606.50
920.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1483
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
63.00
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
101
1.25
KINGFISHER
336.80
254.10
351.30
Neutral
Neutral
358
0.94
442.10
312.20
485.00
Neutral
Buy
503
0.65
57.50
43.00
71.00
Neutral
Neutral
62
1.04
371.25
189.25
385.00
Neutral
Buy
461
0.47
NEXT
4580.00
3022.00
4749.00
Sell
Neutral
4439
0.67
TED BAKER
1407.00
855.50
1490.00
Neutral
Sell
626
0.55
67.50
38.00
70.00
Neutral
Sell
52
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
137.50
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
113
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
755.50
585.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
552
0.39
OPTOS
127.50
120.00
222.75
Neutral
Buy
154
1.18
749.50
600.50
794.50
Neutral
Sell
676
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
725.00
565.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
706
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
372.00
263.00
377.00
Neutral
Sell
320
0.92
80.00
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
109
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
878.50
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
458
0.74
CSR
513.00
200.40
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1471
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
59.00
25.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
24
0.90
338.70
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Neutral
351
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
124.40
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
444
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
202.00
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-617
0.90
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07 June 2013
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1280.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-423
0.53
AMLIN
397.40
323.50
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1477
0.46
BEAZLEY
220.20
132.50
241.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
917
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
468.30
409.40
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
451
0.30
HISCOX
528.00
414.09
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1838
0.48
873.00
677.00
914.50
Neutral
Buy
1189
0.31
114.10
100.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
698
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
486.50
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3301
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2135.00
2083.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3984
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
113.00
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Sell
104
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
335.00
158.00
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
778
1.01
880.00
700.00
880.00
Neutral
Sell
672
0.39
GREENE KING
735.50
479.20
789.50
Neutral
Sell
645
0.93
LADBROKES
198.50
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
249
0.93
1819.00
1493.74
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1477
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
545.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
616
1.40
362.00
217.40
408.50
Neutral
Sell
314
1.12
120.00
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
42
1.25
12.75
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
49
1.27
154.10
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
504
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
502.00
287.30
531.00
Neutral
Sell
392
WETHERSPOON (JD)
628.00
387.60
661.50
Neutral
Buy
739
0.69
WHITBREAD
2828.00
1824.00
2897.00
Sell
Sell
1992
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
429.60
247.83
452.80
Neutral
Sell
256
0.87
MARSTON'S
139.10
94.70
154.70
Neutral
Sell
16
1.21
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
325.50
260.50
388.40
Neutral
Neutral
318
1.25
CHESNARA
249.75
161.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
459
0.70
174.70
115.70
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
435
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
190.20
146.90
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
375
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1060.00
696.50
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1076
1.71
548.00
318.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6174
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
126.25
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-647
0.37
764.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1741
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
34.50
29.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-20
1.03
746.00
363.50
770.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4189
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
957.00
708.00
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7684
1.00
INFORMA
490.90
350.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-60
1.53
ITE GROUP
280.10
180.00
299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
279
1.45
ITV
126.70
70.40
134.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1300
1.54
17.75
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
801
1.27
1177.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
347
0.63
81.00
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2690
0.79
278.50
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
923
0.16
34.27
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Sell
-632
0.50
STV GROUP
132.00
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
267
0.79
ST.IVES
160.75
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
253
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
106.75
25.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-296
1.59
UBM
690.00
532.50
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1923
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
161.75
82.00
164.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1383
WPP
1100.00
743.00
1190.00
Neutral
Sell
-527
1.35
HIBU
0.36
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
828
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1440.00
1440.00
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1142
1.74
234.00
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
227
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
908.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
827
1.41
1821.00
1724.00
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2840
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
310.95
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
952
#NA
LONMIN
288.20
240.84
421.26
Sell
Buy
338
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4999.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2933
0.34
RIO TINTO
2747.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2224
1.50
3.38
10.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
161
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2027
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1230.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1165.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
859
BP
458.00
401.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
967
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
261.80
248.20
309.40
Buy
Sell
-19
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.80
7.68
7.60
12.50
Neutral
Buy
10
0.82
813.50
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
550
1.31
1.36
58.75
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Sell
-58
345.10
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
392
1.43
2180.50
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8048
0.84
373.20
276.50
404.30
Buy
Buy
476
0.53
1006.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
678
1.04
814.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
710
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
110.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
370.40
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
305
0.69
4487.00
3300.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4530
0.36
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.42
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-2
1.01
3280.50
2643.00
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6337
0.47
BTG
363.10
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
165
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
681.00
469.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
726
0.25
1640.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1653
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.75
1.55
2.80
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2083.00
1727.00
2213.00
Neutral
Sell
1418
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
48.75
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
31
0.73
VERNALIS
22.38
21.75
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
376.00
276.30
426.70
Buy
Sell
-647
1.18
BRITISH LAND
582.00
478.30
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1741
1.06
Target
Beta
33.75
22.75
37.00
Neutral
Sell
-20
0.85
990.00
595.00
1004.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4189
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2273.00
1740.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7684
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
201.00
121.75
203.00
Neutral
Sell
-60
0.99
GRAINGER
149.60
83.10
157.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
279
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
530.00
367.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1300
1.10
HAMMERSON
491.90
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
801
1.19
HELICAL BAR
272.00
175.00
297.50
Neutral
Buy
347
0.77
908.00
707.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2690
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
333.30
309.80
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
923
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
149.25
127.00
155.00
Neutral
Sell
-632
0.73
382.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
267
0.42
317.00
312.17
363.53
Neutral
Sell
253
0.35
79.50
32.50
79.50
Sell
Sell
-296
1.19
SAVILLS
582.00
319.50
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1923
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
603.00
492.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1383
1.05
SEGRO
274.80
209.80
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-527
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
281.90
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
828
1.59
213.00
147.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.01
UNITE GROUP
356.00
180.75
387.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2234
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1116
1.03
381.00
221.00
418.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1322
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
128.50
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
124
0.73
2323.00
1550.00
2420.00
Neutral
Sell
1334
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
469.10
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1324
1.00
KOFAX
328.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
330
1.11
27.75
18.25
28.00
Neutral
Sell
25
0.85
663.00
431.48
710.00
Neutral
Buy
993
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
154.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
319
0.74
70.50
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-95
0.52
1883.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2144
0.76
351.60
247.70
368.10
Neutral
Buy
424
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
422.80
244.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1277
1.09
BREWIN DOLPHIN
227.30
136.30
244.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
666
0.73
9556.50
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
97610
0.84
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
388.50
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1314
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
190.00
141.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1166
0.69
934.00
699.50
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5155
0.86
96.25
72.50
110.40
Neutral
Sell
70
0.89
3.07
0.55
3.70
Neutral
Sell
-125
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
153.10
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
805
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
ICAP
368.00
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1806
1.07
432.80
249.10
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2935
1.70
INVESTEC
442.10
343.10
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1826
1.56
1390.00
930.00
1434.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4278
1.15
94.10
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4470
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1543.00
1186.00
1577.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5639
0.75
SCHRODERS
2192.00
1230.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8539
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1687.00
966.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11274
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ACAL
227.50
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1254
0.92
AGGREKO
1633.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3406
1.05
AMEC
1004.00
933.00
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3340
1.04
605.50
228.30
671.00
Neutral
Buy
894
1.63
1117.00
842.50
1205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2249
0.48
544.75
324.00
580.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
2015
0.76
1233.00
1009.00
1342.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2831
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
507.50
214.00
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1453
0.39
CAPITA
944.00
631.50
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
234
0.51
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
54.25
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
478
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
838.50
624.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1997
0.74
BERENDSEN
740.00
470.00
812.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2873
1.05
DE LA RUE
947.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1775
#NA
DIGNITY
1339.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2076
0.22
DIPLOMA
541.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
260.70
196.60
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1052
1.04
FILTRONA
698.50
439.60
750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1301
1.13
G4S
245.70
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
910
0.58
HAYS
89.50
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
428
1.10
HOMESERVE
265.60
137.50
266.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1250
0.94
INTERSERVE
470.30
297.20
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3371
1.28
3102.00
2558.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4492
0.78
46.00
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
352
1.17
0.72
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
29.00
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
214
MENZIES (JOHN)
715.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2204
1.43
377.40
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
815
1.42
MITIE GROUP
250.00
249.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1281
0.55
88.00
86.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
713
0.33
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
986.50
670.50
989.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1731
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
208.00
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
767
1.33
REGUS
160.20
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
66
1.46
87.50
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
315
1.25
REXAM
505.50
403.43
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1754
0.90
RICARDO
406.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1630
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
218.00
176.25
234.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1154
1.24
RPC GROUP
425.90
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1848
0.78
RPS GROUP
213.00
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1039
1.51
SERCO GROUP
595.00
526.00
647.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2351
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
81.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
696
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
54.50
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
255
1.26
171.00
82.00
171.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
545
0.63
58.38
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
330
0.93
352.00
245.75
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
2030
0.86
89.00
42.00
89.00
Sell
Strong Buy
527
0.79
www.intellisys.uk.com
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Under Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
301.70
200.70
322.30
Neutral
Buy
348
0.91
41.63
27.55
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
85
0.70
618.00
459.80
749.00
Neutral
Sell
474
0.53
76.85
68.25
88.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
134
1.24
1264.00
770.00
1325.00
Neutral
Sell
742
0.09
188.15
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Neutral
184
0.54
Beta
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
270.70
178.00
288.40
Neutral
Sell
Target
175
Beta
1.30
422.00
310.00
429.75
Neutral
Neutral
448
0.98
CLARKSON
1612.00
1150.00
1716.00
Neutral
Sell
1156
0.80
EASYJET
1184.00
489.00
1300.00
Neutral
Sell
679
0.77
FIRST GROUP
119.10
118.00
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
560
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
950.00
557.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
404
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1440.00
1113.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1813
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
198.50
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
253
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
340.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
680
STAGECOACH GROUP
286.50
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
372
0.89
67.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-44
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
362.90
307.10
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
578
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
740.00
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
872
0.50
PENNON GROUP
666.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
796
0.59
SSE
1496.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2138
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2020.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1559
0.35
737.00
646.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
708
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
07 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
Intellisys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions
in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and may buy,
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sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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