Exhibit 1

FORECAST MASTER AS OF OCTOBER 7, 2004

WILKINS REGULATOR DIVISION UNIT SALES PER WEEK BY QUARTER
HISTORY THROUGH QIV 2004
FORECAST BEGINNING QI 2005
REVISED OCTOBER 7, 2004
Final
FILE: FCSTMASTER
PROD LINE

Fiscal Year

QI

QII

QIII

QIV

YEAR TOTAL

PVB

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

1788
2097
2116
2352
2721
3029
4120

3748
4008
3523
4092
4449
5786
7480

5115
5532
5921
6824
7184
9451
9341

3167
3123
3374
3968
4531
4231
5983

179634
191880
194136
224072
245506
292465
350012

FIRE VALVE

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

36
47
21
36
42
22
43

43
32
45
38
27
26
51

18
34
19
28
25
28
51

13
24
38
43
11
29
51

1432
1777
1608
1608
1357
1371
2550

SALES HISTORY FROM THE PLANNING BILL

(as of January 10, 2005)
Year
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
2002
2002
2003
2003
2003
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2005

Qtr
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

PVB12-720 PVB34-720
2108
6716
2516
11510
2954
18438
2224
10456
1788
9464
2512
12942
3540
21640
3666
11650
3546
11270
5596
15322
5948
19424
4892
13310
4311
10214
6637
20983
7823
27492
6652
19535
6235
28020

PVB1-720
PVB34-420
10688
7158
21688
7034
40814
9026
19510
7254
9824
6968
21848
9156
48936
8134
24640
6958
12400
5208
23692
6806
47904
10446
26990
7960
13851
7397
31507
9043
66644
11233
17337
7496
11163
384

PVB1-420
842
3050
5736
4414
2536
6740
6454
4676
2948
6424
9666
5754
3609
7049
9676
3976
2357

Exhibit 2
HISTORY FROM THE PLANNING BILLS
(as of January 10, 2005)
Total
27512
45798
76968
43858
30580
53198
88704
51590
35372
57840
93388
58906
39382
75219
122868
54996
48159

FVZ2105
122
139
54
78
18
224
138
193
124
112
25
37
79
71
68
54
85

FVZ3000
77
240
138
275
301
133
175
251
213
150
64
57
108
105
151
114
199

FVZ3000IL
1
0
3
36
-35
0
0
10
2
3
139
3
49
52
2
84
140

FV3004
20
144
25
59
48
35
15
50
32
46
26
18
23
26
62
44
66

Z3004IL
50
67
32
49
132
103
42
63
170
40
77
22
26
90
77
86
90

Total
270
590
252
497
464
495
370
567
541
351
331
137
285
344
360
382
580

Exhibit 3
PLANNING BILL FOR PVBS
(as of October 3, 2004)
WILKINS DIVISION
PLANNING BILL PVB
Revised 03/10/04

PART NO

cc Steve, Jim, Cyd, Neal, Terri, Ed, Lisa

QI
QII
QIII
QIV
UNIT SALES UNIT SALES UNIT SALES UNIT SALES
9/28/2003
1/4/2004
4/4/2004
3/4/2004
1/4/2004
4/3/2004
7/3/2004 10/2/2004

RAW
%

PLAN BILL
%

12-720
14-720
1-720
34-420
1-420

4311
10214
13851
7397
3609

6637
20983
31507
9043
7049

7823
27492
66644
11233
9676

6652
19535
17337
7496
3976

8.7%
26.7%
44.2%
12.0%
8.3%

10.6%
25.1%
44.1%
12.0%
8.2%

TOTAL
DAYS
UNIT/DAY

39382
64
615

75219
65
1157

122868
64
1920

54996
63
873

100.0%

100.0%

TOTAL
DAYS
UNIT/DAY

292465
256
1142

FORECAST
12-month
DEMAND
1400/DAY
37100
87850
154350
42000
28700
350000
250
1400
350000
250
1400

Exhibit 4
PLANNING BILL FOR FIRE VALVES
(as of October 12, 2004)
WILKINS DIVISION
cc Jim, Cyd, Steve, Ed, Terri, Brad, Pete, Lisa
PLANNING BILL: Fire Valves
Revised 12/10/04
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
UNIT SALES UNIT SALES UNIT SALES UNIT SALES
9/28/2003
1/4/2004
4/4/2004
3/4/2004
RAW
PLAN BILL
PART NO
1/4/2004
4/3/2004
7/3/2004 10/2/2004
%
%
Z2105
Z3000
Z3000IL
Z3004
Z3004IL

79
108
49
23
26

71
105
52
26
90

68
151
2
62
77

54
114
84
44
86

19.8%
34.9%
13.6%
11.3%
20.4%

21.1%
38.8%
11.8%
8.2%
20.0%

TOTAL
DAYS
UNIT/DAY

285
64
4

344
65
5

360
64
6

382
63
6

100.0%

100.0%

TOTAL
DAYS
UNIT/DAY

1371
256
5

FORECAST
12-month
DEMAND
10.2/DAY
540
990
300
210
510
2550
250
10.2
2550
250
10.2

Exhibit 5
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE UNITED STATES
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Oct-Dec 2000
3.90%
Jan-Mar 2001
4.23%
Apr-Jne 2001
4.40%
Jul-Sep 2001
4.83%
Oct-Dec 2001
5.53%
Jan-Mar 2002
5.70%
Apr-Jne 2002
5.83%
Jul-Sep 2002
5.73%
Oct-Dec 2002
5.87%
Jan-Mar 2003
5.83%
Apr-Jne 2003
6.13%
Jul-Sep 2003
6.13%
Oct-Dec 2003
5.87%
Jan-Mar 2004
5.67%
Apr-Jne 2004
5.57%
Jul-Sep 2004
5.43%
Oct-Dec 2004
5.43%

Exhibit 6
BANK PRIME LOAN RATE IN THE UNITED STATES
Bank Prime
Loan Rate (%)
Oct-Dec 2000
9.50%
Jan-Mar 2001
8.62%
Apr-Jne 2001
7.34%
Jul-Sep 2001
6.57%
Oct-Dec 2001
5.16%
Jan-Mar 2002
4.75%
Apr-Jne 2002
4.75%
Jul-Sep 2002
4.75%
Oct-Dec 2002
4.45%
Jan-Mar 2003
4.25%
Apr-Jne 2003
4.24%
Jul-Sep 2003
4.00%
Oct-Dec 2003
4.00%
Jan-Mar 2004
4.00%
Apr-Jne 2004
4.00%
Jul-Sep 2004
4.42%
Oct-Dec 2004
4.94%

Exhibit 7
NEW PRIVATELY OWNED HOUSING UNITS STARTED IN THE UNITED STATES
(in 000s)

Oct-Dec 2000
Jan-Mar 2001
Apr-Jne 2001
Jul-Sep 2001
Oct-Dec 2001
Jan-Mar 2002
Apr-Jne 2002
Jul-Sep 2002
Oct-Dec 2002
Jan-Mar 2003
Apr-Jne 2003
Jul-Sep 2003
Oct-Dec 2003
Jan-Mar 2004
Apr-Jne 2004
Jul-Sep 2004
Oct-Dec 2004

Single Unit
Housing Starts
275
274
374
341
285
293
386
361
319
304
406
412
377
345
456
440
370

Multi-Unit
Housing Starts
82
74
87
88
81
76
89
98
84
71
84
99
95
80
84
92
90

Total
Housing Starts
357
348
461
429
366
369
475
459
403
375
490
511
472
425
540
532
460

ordenando la data

1999-Q1
1999-Q2
1999-Q3
1999-Q4
2000-Q1
2000-Q2
2000-Q3
2000-Q4
2001-Q1
2001-Q2
2001-Q3
2001-Q4
2002-Q1
2002-Q2
2002-Q3
2002-Q4
2003-Q1
2003-Q2
2003-Q3
2003-Q4
2004-Q1
2004-Q2
2004-Q3
2004-Q4

Anexo 01 Anexo 02
Anexo 01 Anexo 02
PVB
PVB12-720 PVB34-720 PVB1-720 PVB34-420 PVB1-420 Fire Valve FVZ2105 FVZ3000 FVZ3000IL FV3004 Z3004IL
1788
36
3748
43
5115
18
3167
13
2097
47
4008
32
5532
34
3123
24
2116
2108
6716
10688
7158
842
21
122
77
1
20
50
3523
2516
11510
21688
7034
3050
45
139
240
0
144
67
5921
2954
18438
40814
9026
5736
19
54
138
3
25
32
3374
2224
10456
19510
7254
4414
38
78
275
36
59
49
2352
1788
9464
9824
6968
2536
36
18
301
-35
48
132
4092
2512
12942
21848
9156
6740
38
224
133
0
35
103
6824
3540
21640
48936
8134
6454
28
138
175
0
15
42
3968
3666
11650
24640
6958
4676
43
193
251
10
50
63
2721
3546
11270
12400
5208
2948
42
124
213
2
32
170
4449
5596
15322
23692
6806
6424
27
112
150
3
46
40
7184
5948
19424
47904
10446
9666
25
25
64
139
26
77
4531
4892
13310
26990
7960
5754
11
37
57
3
18
22
3029
4311
10214
13851
7397
3609
22
79
108
49
23
26
5786
6637
20983
31507
9043
7049
26
71
105
52
26
90
9451
7823
27492
66644
11233
9676
28
68
151
2
62
77
4231
6652
19535
17337
7496
3976
29
54
114
84
44
86

2004-Q4

2004-Q3

2004-Q2

2004-Q1

2003-Q4

2003-Q3

FVZ2105

PVB34-720
FVZ3000

30000

PVB34-420
20000
FV3004

PVB1-420
10000

Z3004IL

0
-50

-100

2004-Q4

40000

2004-Q3

50000

2004-Q2

300

2004-Q1

60000

2003-Q4

350

2003-Q3

70000

2003-Q2

Fire Valve

2003-Q1

Linear (PVB)

2002-Q4

2002-Q3

2002-Q2

10

2002-Q1

20

2000

2001-Q4

PVB

2001-Q3

30

4000

2001-Q2

6000

1999-Q1
1999-Q2
1999-Q3
1999-Q4
2000-Q1
2000-Q2
2000-Q3
2000-Q4
2001-Q1
2001-Q2
2001-Q3
2001-Q4
2002-Q1
2002-Q2
2002-Q3
2002-Q4
2003-Q1
2003-Q2
2003-Q3
2003-Q4
2004-Q1
2004-Q2
2004-Q3
2004-Q4

y = 118.08x + 2779.4
R = 0.2088

2001-Q1

2 per. Mov. Avg. (PVB)

2003-Q2

2003-Q1

2002-Q4

2002-Q3

2002-Q2

2002-Q1

2001-Q4

PVB1-720

2001-Q3

PVB

2001-Q2

PVB12-720

2001-Q1

8000

1999-Q1
1999-Q2
1999-Q3
1999-Q4
2000-Q1
2000-Q2
2000-Q3
2000-Q4
2001-Q1
2001-Q2
2001-Q3
2001-Q4
2002-Q1
2002-Q2
2002-Q3
2002-Q4
2003-Q1
2003-Q2
2003-Q3
2003-Q4
2004-Q1
2004-Q2
2004-Q3
2004-Q4

10000
50

Fire Valve

40

y = 2E-05x6 - 0.0012x5 + 0.0316x4 - 0.4255x3 + 3.2534x2 - 12.773x + 47.577

R = 0.215

Poly. (Fire Valve)

250

200

FVZ3000IL

150

100
50
0

FVZ2105

PVB12-720
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

250

y = 355x + 1152
R = 0.8078

200

y = -0.0048x6 + 0.2297x5 - 4.0539x4 + 32.303x3 - 112.31x2 + 134.63x + 83.54

R = 0.5644

150
100
50
0

FVZ3000

PVB34-720
350

30000

25000

y = 685.1x + 9199.6
R = 0.3358

y = -0.005x6 + 0.2515x5 - 4.9043x4 + 46.76x3 - 229.98x2 + 552.56x - 283.66

R = 0.6082

300
250

20000

200
15000

150

10000

100

5000

50

FVZ3000IL

PVB1-720
70000

60000
50000
40000

30000
20000

10000
0

y = 1019.6x + 18726
R = 0.0914

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60

y = 0.0023x6 - 0.1043x5 + 1.762x4 - 13.617x3 + 48.586x2 - 71.679x + 35.174

R = 0.4344

FV3004

PVB34-420
160

12000

140

10000

120

8000

100
80

6000

4000

60

y = 101.16x + 7094.9
R = 0.1021

40

2000

20

Z3004IL

PVB1-420
12000

10000
8000
6000

4000
2000
0

y = 258.36x + 3025.8
R = 0.2518

y = -0.0035x6 + 0.1862x5 - 3.8401x4 + 38.567x3 - 192.94x2 + 428.7x - 239.7

R = 0.5207

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

y = -0.0014x6 + 0.0643x5 - 1.1036x4 + 8.4159x3 - 28.26x2 + 42.502x + 29.977

R = 0.2269