Daily FX Focus

7-6-2013

FX Pick:EUR/USD
Large amount of USD long position liquidation ahead of the US non-farm payroll pushed up the EUR concealing the ECB discussion of negative interest rates. Investors may consider selling EUR on rebound Currency Today's View Comment AUD EUR GBP NZD CAD JPY CHF NEUTRAL BEARISH BEARISH NEUTRAL BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH
Australia's April trade surplus narrowed to A$28 billion disappointed the market. AUD fell to 0.9435 near the support level 0.9388. Large amount of USD long position liquidation ahead of the US non-farm payroll pushed up the EUR concealing the ECB discussion of negative interest rates. The Bank of England kept interest rates and asset purchases unchanged and rising house prices supported the pound. NZD hovered around low levels, close to the 0.79 support. Canadian PMI was better than expected. Market was disappointed with the Prime Minister's economic growth strategy causing huge amount of yen stop loss buy orders. USD/JPY fell to 95.92 yen with next support at 92.40. Switzerland deflation continues in May.

AUD
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

NEUTRAL

Australia's April trade surplus narrowed to A$28 billion disappointed the market. AUD fell to 0.9435 near the support level 0.9388. 0.9591 0.55% 0.9673 0.9432 0.9401 0.9811

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

(-) Australia Apr trade balance at 28 mio, lower than expected (-) Australia 1Q GDP at 2.5% yoy, lower than expected (~) RBA kept rate unchanged at 2.75% in Jun (-) Australia Apr retail sales at 0.2% mom, lower than expected

AUD/USD 6-month Chart

1.10 1.06 1.02 0.98 0.94 Dec-12

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EUR
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

BEARISH

Large amount of USD long position liquidation ahead of the US non-farm payroll pushed up the EUR concealing the ECB discussion of negative interest rates. 1.3245 1.16% 1.3304 1.3074 1.2925 1.3434

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

(~) ECB kept rate unchanged at 0.5% in Jun (-) Eurozone Apr retail sales at -1.1% yoy, lower than expected (-) Eurozone 1Q GDP at -1.1% yoy, lower than expected (+) Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 48.3, higher than expected 1.38 1.33 1.28 1.23 1.18 Dec-12

EUR/USD 6-month Chart

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Daily FX Focus
7-6-2013 GBP
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

BEARISH

The Bank of England kept interest rates and asset purchases unchanged and rising house prices supported the pound. 1.5601 1.29% 1.5683 1.5380 1.5177 1.5854

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

(~) BOE kept interest rate and asset purchase target unchanged in Jun (~) UK Q1 GDP increased 0.6% yoy, in line with market expectations (-) UK retail sales dropped 1.3% in April, worse than expected (-) UK Apr consumer price index at 2.4% yoy, lower than expected

GBP/USD 6-month Chart

1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 Dec-12

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NZD
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

NEUTRAL

NZD hovered around low levels, close to the 0.79 support.

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

0.8020 0.64% 0.8101 0.7899 0.7875 0.8188

(-) New Zealand Apr trade surplus at NZD157m, lower than market expectations (+) New Zealand 1Q unemployment rate at 6.2%, lower than expected (~) RBNZ kept rate unchanged at 2.5% in Apr (+) New Zealand Q4 GDP rose by 3.0% yoy, higher than expected

NZD/USD 6-month Chart

0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

CAD
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

BEARISH

Canadian PMI was better than expected.

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

1.0261 -0.80% 1.0366 1.0196 1.0151 1.0395

(+) Canada 1Q GDP at 2.5% yoy, higher than expected (~) BoC kept interest rates unchanged in May (-) Canada Mar retail sales unchanged mom, lower than market expectations (-) Canada Apr consumer price index rose by 1.1% yoy, lower than expected

USD/CAD 6-month Chart

1.03 1.01 0.99 0.97 0.95 Dec-12

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Daily FX Focus
7-6-2013 JPY
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

BEARISH

Market was disappointed with the Prime Minister's economic growth strategy causing huge amount of yen stop loss buy orders. USD/JPY fell to 95.92 yen with next support at 92.40. 96.9400 -2.14% 99.4700 95.9600 94.0233 101.7933

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

(~) Japan Apr jobless rate at 4.1%, in line with expectation (~) Japan Apr national consumer price index at -0.7% yoy, in line with expectation (~) BOJ kept rate unchanged in May (+) Japan Q1 GDP up 0.9% qoq, higher than market expectations

USD/JPY 6-month Chart

103.50 96.50 89.50 82.50 75.50 Dec-12

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CHF
07-Jun vs USD Daily change: Daily high: Daily low: Support*: Resistance*:

BEARISH

Switzerland deflation continues in May.

Market Highlights and Technical Analysis

0.9292 -1.38% 0.9439 0.9225 0.9065 0.9678

(+) Switzerland May consumer price index at -0.5% yoy, higher than expected (+) Switzerland Q1 GDP up 0.6% qoq, better than market expectations (-) Switzerland Apr trade balance at CHF 1.73 billion, worse than market expectations (-) New SNB chairman indicated the needs to keep EUR/CHF floor

USD/CHF 6-month Chart

1.00 0.96 0.92 0.88 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Note: Above rate is reference market mid rate.

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Daily FX Focus
7-6-2013

HSBC forecasts 9-May-13

Current rate North America US Canada Asia-pacific Japan Australia New Zealand Western Europe EMU UK 0-0.25 1.00 0-0.10 2.75 2.50 0.50 0.50 Q2 2013 0-0.25 1.00 0-0.10 2.75 2.50 0.50 0.50 Q3 2013 0-0.25 1.00 0-0.10 2.75 2.50 0.50 0.50 Q4 2013 0-0.25 1.00 0-0.10 2.75 2.50 0.50 0.50 Q1 2014 0-0.25 1.00 0-0.10 2.75 3.00 0.50 0.50 Q2 2014 0-0.25 1.00 0-0.10 3.00 3.25 0.50 0.50

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