World Population Dynamics Demography is the study of human populations Population Explosion A recent event - Last 200 year

r of less for MDCs (Most developed countries) Industrial Revolution Improvement in sanitation and medicine. - Last 50 years or less for LDCs Transfer of technology, i.e. medical, agricultural (Green Revolution). The global population reached 6 billion in fall of 1999.

Rates of Global Pop. Change - CBR (crude birth rate) = Number of births per 1000 population - CDR (crude death rate) = Number of deaths per 1000 population. - Growth rate = birth date death rate (often in %). - TFR (total fertility rate) = number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years (or life time). - IMR (infant mortality rate) = infant deaths per 1000 live births. - Population: number of persons - Population change: increase in the number of persons (per year) - Growth rates: rate of change (per year) Population Pyramids - Geographers have a penchant for graphs and charts. - These easily readable visual guides can offer a lot of information. - When studying population, the population pyramid is very useful. - A short glance at a population pyramid can give a lot of information about the country represented. - You can see from the previous slide that there are variations on the design of the population pyramid. - The information on the population pyramid is however the same. - The Pop Pyramid always measures certain Population Pyramids - Populations that have a very high birth rate and a very high death rate have many common features. - Reasons for a high birth rate No social safety net. - High infant mortality. - Lack of family planning assistance. - Traditional values. - As a society develops, many of these problems are resolved. - Better health care reduces infant mortality. - Better economy helps create a social safety net.

This reduces the need for children taking on the responsibility of caring for their aging parents. As the health care improves, the wide bar at the bottom of the pyramid shrinks. As the same time, the narrow bar at the top expands. This is due to the older people living longer. The population pyramid begins to change shape. Societies go through stages. The first stage is when the country is developing. It is typified by all the factors indicated in the Benin population pyramid. This stage is called expansive or expanding. It is exemplified by the very sharp pyramid. Questions: What must occur for a country to move from this stage to the next Proved sanitation, education especially for women, access to clean water, Describe the transition what is occurring in the country as it develops? Is it inevitable for a country to develop? What factors could prevent development? At the next stage, the country has achieved many of the goals necessary to develop. List them. This stage is called stable population. At this stage, the country has a well-developed economy. This supports a strong infrastructure. Generally, the people tend to be well educated and upwardly mobile. Stable populations tend to be the more economically developed nations. These population pyramids have a less triangular shape. The bottom bars begin to contract. The final stage is called contracting. At this stage, the rate of natural increase is significantly lower. There tends to be a higher death rate Contracting stage is also called Zero Population Growth. Very few countries in the world have achieved this stage. They include Germany, Sweden, and Japan. Japan has reached a contraction population model. Lets look at the projections for Japan based on the current level of population growth.

The Dependency Ratio - This figure is based on the assumption that neither the oldest nor the youngest of society work and contribute to the growth of the economy. - Remember senior citizens of society have put in a full life of work and contribution and have earned the support they now receive. - The more workers a country has, the better the economic advantage it has.

The large work force can grow the economy and thereby build a strong infrastructure. A country in the opposite position is at a disadvantage, A smaller number of workers are needed to support a larger population. To calculate the dependency ratio you need to find the percentage of total population of working age. This is usually taken to be people between 15 and 65 years of age. Those younger are called young dependents. These older are the old dependents. The dependency ratio is calculated as follows; Young dependents (%) + Old dependents (%) x 100 Canadas dependency ratio for 1981 was 47.5. This is a low figure and means that Canada, at least in 1981, had a stable economic forecast. Countries that have a higher proportion of older or younger have a higher economic burden. As we have seen from the population pyramids, countries can be in varying levels of their economic development. A model was needed to show how countries develop. As the economic, social, and political factors of a country improve, the country will advance in its development.

Demographic Transition Model - A model is a simplified version of the way things works in the real world. - The DTM can chart the transition of a country as it moves through the stages. - The reasons for a countrys move have been discussed earlier. - The DTM is shown on the following slide - The demographic transition model is used to show this growth. - Notice that the terms are not consistent. - The advantages of the demographic transition model are that it shows a movement. - The population pyramid can only show a snapshot of a country. - The demographic transition model allows for the movement of a countrys development. - High Stationary is also called high fluctuating. - Birth rates and Death rates are both high. - Population growth is slow and fluctuating. - Birth Rate is high because - Lack of family planning. - High infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the bank. - Need for workers in agriculture. - Religious beliefs. - Children seen as economic assets. - Death Rate is high because - High level of disease. - Famine.

War. Lack of clean water and sanitation. Lack of health care. Lack of education. Competition for food from predators such as rats. From what you have learned from the demographic transition mode, you can now conclude that this growth was initially caused by developed nations passing through stage 2. These nations are now in stage 3 or 4, and therefore nations that contribute very little to current world population growth. However, many less developed countries, which are currently at stage 2, are growing by 2 to 3 percent per year. Like the developed nations, less developed nations are likely to move into stages 3 and 4 of the model. Can world population stability be achieved? From the previous slide one can see the results of a government attempt at population control. Chinas one child policy has been highly criticized but it can be seen that it has been in part successful.

Special kinds of Fertility and Mortality Rates. - TFR (total fertility rate) = # of children born to a woman during her reproductive years (or life time). - 1990: 3.1 2000: 2.8 - IMR (infant mortality rate) = infant deaths per 1000 live birth. Doubling time - Number of years in which a population reaches twice its size. - Doubling time can be approximated