Estonia

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS December 16, 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E-mail : rolf.danielsen@seb.se

Estonia has now officially entered an economic recession, with possibly no significant upturn in sight
before 2011 at the best. Hopes are now pinned on the government’s ability to steer the economy
through turbulent times.

Country Risk Analysis

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important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Dec. 16, 2008

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2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Dec. 16, 2008

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3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Dec. 16, 2008

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In te r b a n k r a te s
( 3 m o n th T A L IB O R ) W ages and prices
Annual %- change

8
T A L IB O R
25
7
20
6 15
% p.a.

5 E C B L o m b a r d (c e ilin g ) r a te 10
4 5
3 E C B M in im u m b id r a te
0
2005 2006 2007 2008
2
2005 2006 2007 2008
W ages C onsum er Prices
S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W i n S ource: R euters EcoW in

O M X - T a llin n S to c k E x c h a n g e M a n u fa c tu rin g P r o d u c tio n

1 0 0 0 200
9 0 0 190

8 0 0 180
170
7 0 0
160
6 0 0
150
5 0 0 140
4 0 0 130
3 0 0 120

2 0 0 110
2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2002 2004 2006 2008
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

4
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Dec. 16, 2008

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