Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Dealers Diary
Indian shares are expected to open in negative, tracking negative cues from SGX
Nifty and most of the Asian indices
After moving notably higher over the course of the two previous sessions, US stocks
closed roughly flat following choppy trading day. The lackluster performance on
Wall Street came as traders stayed on the sidelines following the rally seen last
Friday in reaction to the monthly jobs report. Meanwhile, the
European markets ended Monday's session with mixed results. The May jobs report
from the U.S. at the end of the previous week indicated that the economic growth is
not gathering sufficient momentum for the Federal Reserve to scale down its bondbuying program, providing some relief to recent investor anxiety. However, weak
Chinese economic data indicating sluggish activity across the worlds second
largest economy continued to worry investors.
Back home, Indian shares failed to hold to their early gains on Monday, with a
depreciating rupee weighing on the markets. The Indian rupee fell to a record low
of 57.81 against the dollar in the afternoon, deepening worries about the widening
current account deficit and the outlook for the economy.
Domestic Indices
BSE Sensex
Chg (%)
(Pts)
0.1
(Close)
12 19,441
Nifty
(0.1)
(3)
5,878
MID CAP
(0.9)
(56)
6,332
SMALL CAP
(0.8)
(47)
5,915
BSE HC
(1.0)
(93)
8,799
BSE PSU
(0.4)
(27)
6,501
BANKEX
(1.1)
(157) 13,828
AUTO
(0.6)
(64) 10,828
METAL
(1.0)
(81)
8,319
OIL & GAS
0.1
8,498
BSE IT
1.0
62
6,200
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Dow Jones
NASDAQ
FTSE
Chg (%)
(0.1)
(10) 15,239
0.1
3,474
(0.2)
(12)
6,400
Nikkei
4.9
Hang Sang
0.2
40
21,615
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,465 / 5,889 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,562 19,683 / 5,921 5,963 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,465 / 5,889 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,343 19,246 / 5,846 5,815 levels.
Straits Times
0.5
16
3,201
(1.3)
(30)
2,211
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
0.2
0.1
$43.1
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
WIT
(1.3)
(0.1)
$7.5
SENSEX
NIFTY
19,246
5,815
19,343
5,846
19,465
5,889
19,562
5,921
19,683
5,963
IBN
(3.0)
(1.3)
$42.9
HDB
(2.2)
(0.9)
$38.3
Markets Today
Shanghai Com
Indian ADR
INFY
637 13,514
News Analysis
RBI penalizes Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank

L&T has bagged `6,700cr western dedicated freight corridor contract
Yes Bank gets shareholder nod to raise USD 500mn
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
873
433
1,428
943
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Unchanged
145
79
Declines
Net Inflows (June 7, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
MFs
2,856
514
2,222
382
635
132
1249
(198)
83,101
(12,784)
FII Derivatives (June 10, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
Stock Futures
1,206
1,580
1,208
1,505
(2)
75
6,770
28,543
Gainers / Losers
Company
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Glaxosmithkl Cons
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
5,688
3.8
Jet Air India
404
(11.2)
MCX
911
3.6
United Brew-$
645
(9.3)
Wipro
343
2.1
Jain Irrigation
57
(9.1)
Apollo Hosp
1,002
2.0
Muthoot Fin
134
(5.4)
Ultratech Cem
1,890
1.8
Exide Inds
131
(5.3)
www.angelbroking.com
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,527
NSE
8,406
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
RBI penalizes Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank

RBI has completed its own investigation in response to Cobraposts money
laundering allegation on Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. It has found
these banks guilty of violating certain regulations/instructions (primarily KYC
norms) and has imposed a monetary penalty of `5cr, `4.5cr and `1cr, respectively
on Axis, HDFC and ICICI Bank. Based on its own investigations, the RBI has
denied finding any prima facie evidence suggesting money laundering. RBI has
further stated that a similar scrutiny is at different stages of completion on 36 other
banks.
L&T bagged `6,700cr western dedicated freight corridor contract

A consortium of Larsen and Toubro (L&T) and Japan's Sojitz Corp has bagged an
order worth `6,700cr from the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India
Ltd (DFCCIL). The work involves construction of 626 km of a double-track corridor
from Rewari in Haryana to Iqbalgarh in Gujarat via Rajasthan, spanning three
states. The project is expected to be complete in four years. We continue to
maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `1,761.
Yes Bank gets shareholder nod to raise USD 500mn

Yes Bank in its AGM held on June 8, 2013 received shareholders approval to raise
capital of USD 500mn. The management has stated plans to raise this sum
through a combination of Gross Depository Receipts (GDRs), QIP and Domestic
Institutional Investors (DII) in order to ensure widest participation of all investor
classes. As of 4QFY2013, the banks capital adequacy ratio (CAR) continued to be
strong at 18.3%, with tier-I ratio at 9.5%. With RoE of above 22%, the banks
retained earnings itself are capable for funding a balance sheet growth of 1820%. At CMP, the stock trades at a valuation of 2.5x FY2014E ABV and 2.1x
FY2015E ABV, which in our view, factors in most of the positives for the bank and
offers limited scope for upside from the current levels. Hence, we maintain our
Neutral rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Shell, ONGC eye tie-up for retail

Government could take more steps to curb gold import: Raghuram Rajan
Rupee slide temporary; panic unwarranted: Finance Ministry
Corporate News
Coal India Ltd approves FSA renewal with non-power consumers, with riders
Power Grid signs pact with six North-eastern states to improve network
GMR Infrastructure subsidiary picks 17% stake in Delhi Duty Free Services at
IGI airport
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
June 11, 2013
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Apr
(1.40)
--
June 12, 2013
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
May
(7.30)
--
11:00AM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Apr
2.50
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
6:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
June 14, 2013
June 17, 2013
June 18, 2013
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
11:00AM
India
11:00AM
11:00AM
May F
1.20
--
% Change
May
(0.70)
0.10
May
(0.53)
0.30
% Change
May
4.89
--
RBI Repo rate
Jun 17
7.25
--
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Jun 17
4.00
--
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
Jun 17
6.25
--
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
May
2.40
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
May
853.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
May
1,005.00
--
% Change
May
(0.40)
--
Jun 19
0.25
--
Value
Jun A
(21.90)
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
June 19, 2013
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
June 20, 2013
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
7:30PM
US
New home sales
June 26, 2013
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
June 27, 2013
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
July 1, 2013
12:00AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
UK
PMI Manufacturing
UK
BOE Announces rates
June 25, 2013
July 4, 2013
12:00AM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Million
May
4.97
--
S.A./ 1985=100
Jun
76.20
--
Thousands
May
454.00
--
% Change
1Q T
2.40
--
Thousands
Jun
21.00
--
1Q F
0.60
--
Jun
50.80
--
Value
Jun
51.30
--
% Ratio
Jul 4
0.50
0.50
Jul 4
0.50
--
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.4
9.2
6.0
4.0
Mfg. PMI
58.0
7.5
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
(4.0)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
7.6
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
Apr-12
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
(0.1)
(1.3)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.3
56.0
6.0
4.9
54.0
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Mar-12
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
50.0
Jun-12
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.5
(2.0)
8.0
2.5
2.4
2.0
Oct-12
4.7 4.8
Source: CSO, Angel Research
9.0
2.5
2.0
5.1 5.4 5.2
Sep-12
6.0
Aug-12
6.5
Mar-13
7.5
Jul-12
7.7
Jun-12
8.6
8.4
8.0
9.9
May-12
9.5
9.3
2QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
15.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
7.25
8.00
7.00
6.00
6.25
5.00
4.00
4.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
(15.0)
Jun-12
3.00
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
0.0
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
139
2,702
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
18.1
15.6
3.8
3.2
22.2
21.9
1.6
1.3
United Phosphorus
Buy
153
232
6,776
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
7.5
6.6
1.3
1.1
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
246
285
4,205
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
13.3
12.1
3.2
2.6
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.0
Apollo Tyres
Buy
90
104
4,524
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
7.0
6.0
1.1
1.0
17.5
17.3
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
22
27
5,960
14,038
16,442
7.6
8.7
1.1
2.2
21.4
10.0
1.8
1.6
6.2
12.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
240
363
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
13.9
8.9
1.3
1.2
9.5
14.0
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,769
2,056
51,175
22,684
25,908
18.0
18.5
117.3
137.1
15.1
12.9
5.4
4.3
39.9
37.2
1.9
1.5
Bharat Forge
Neutral
228
5,314
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.7
13.2
2.0
1.8
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.9
Bosch India*
Neutral
9,120
28,636
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
24.4
20.8
4.4
3.7
18.0
17.9
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
112
170
383
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.7
2.3
0.4
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
131
150
11,093
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
16.7
14.3
2.8
2.4
18.1
18.2
1.3
1.1
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,450
2,410
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
16.4
13.3
2.4
2.0
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,652
1,819
32,997
25,274
27,658
14.1
13.7
110.2
139.9
15.0
11.8
5.5
4.3
39.8
40.7
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
117
154
479
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
3.1
2.7
0.5
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
977
1,090
59,983
45,254
51,197
11.4
11.7
61.2
70.2
16.0
13.9
3.3
2.8
22.7
21.9
1.1
0.9
1,521
1,847
45,946
48,455
55,723
11.2
10.9
107.8
123.2
14.1
12.4
2.1
1.8
16.2
16.0
0.8
0.7
211
222
12,386
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
16.8
14.3
4.2
3.3
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Buy
24
30
143
1,479
1,685
10.0
9.9
5.5
7.5
4.4
3.2
0.5
0.4
11.1
13.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
296
347
79,329 215,016 237,404
13.3
13.6
36.2
41.5
8.2
7.1
1.8
1.5
24.6
23.2
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
35
41
1,665
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
7.1
6.1
1.2
1.1
18.1
18.5
0.2
0.1
ABB*
Sell
621
461
13,153
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
53.9
36.6
4.9
4.7
9.3
13.1
1.6
1.4
BGR Energy
Neutral
151
1,093
4,114
4,886
11.4
10.7
24.9
28.0
6.1
5.4
0.8
0.7
25.2
22.6
0.6
0.5
BHEL
Neutral
184
45,060
44,054
39,326
16.8
15.1
20.6
16.1
8.9
11.5
1.9
1.8
23.5
16.1
0.9
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
162
230
1,457
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
17.4
13.8
2.9
2.5
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
88
117
5,668
13,446
15,272
6.7
7.6
6.6
8.9
13.3
9.9
1.5
1.3
11.4
14.0
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Neutral
24
200
3,360
3,597
9.7
9.8
7.3
10.2
3.3
2.4
0.7
0.6
8.8
11.4
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
38
63
977
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
6.3
4.5
0.8
0.7
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
608
7,239
5,780
6,430
9.5
9.6
29.8
33.0
20.4
18.4
3.4
3.0
17.9
17.4
1.1
0.9
1,226
1,361
23,012
11,979
13,254
19.7
21.3
77.1
91.4
15.9
13.4
2.8
2.5
18.7
20.0
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
Subros
Capital Goods
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
173
26,696
10,232
11,762
23.5
24.5
10.3
12.2
16.8
14.2
2.8
2.5
17.2
18.6
2.1
1.7
India Cements
Neutral
64
1,961
4,929
5,434
17.4
17.1
8.9
10.9
7.2
5.9
0.5
0.5
7.7
9.1
0.8
0.7
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
116
143
1,361
2,247
2,742
21.0
23.1
17.8
21.8
6.5
5.3
1.0
0.8
15.5
16.4
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
239
5,693
4,234
4,788
23.9
24.0
18.5
22.8
13.0
10.5
2.1
1.8
17.2
18.2
1.7
1.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,750
16,548
6,540
7,452
27.4
26.6
319.7
369.9
14.9
12.8
3.7
2.9
27.5
25.4
1.9
1.4
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,890
51,823
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
17.8
15.8
2.9
2.6
17.7
17.3
2.4
2.1
195
255
1,027
1,928
2,234
21.0
21.5
18.0
22.2
10.9
8.8
0.9
0.9
10.2
10.1
1.9
1.9
10
192
2,281
2,492
5.9
6.9
0.7
2.0
15.2
5.2
0.3
0.3
2.3
6.5
0.4
0.3
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
116
157
3,864
3,997
4,312
45.5
46.4
15.7
16.6
7.4
7.0
1.1
1.0
15.2
14.5
3.4
3.6
ITNL
Buy
172
230
3,346
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.8
5.4
0.8
0.7
14.9
14.2
2.5
2.6
IVRCL Infra
Buy
18
29
540
5,673
5,892
8.1
8.4
1.4
1.8
12.2
9.6
0.3
0.2
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
64
90
14,091
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
25.1
22.3
1.0
1.0
4.2
4.7
2.8
2.7
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,406
1,761
86,629
68,946
78,040
10.5
10.5
77.9
88.3
18.1
15.9
2.6
2.3
15.5
15.6
1.4
1.2
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
29
42
751
6,167
6,945
8.0
8.2
2.7
3.6
11.0
8.1
0.3
0.3
2.7
3.6
0.5
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
41
1,370
12,954
14,740
9.9
9.9
0.5
0.9
81.3
44.3
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
105
139
1,586
2,462
2,731
10.6
10.6
5.9
6.7
17.9
15.8
1.7
1.6
10.2
10.5
0.9
0.9
Simplex Infra
Buy
99
131
490
6,308
7,033
9.5
9.6
11.9
18.7
8.3
5.3
0.4
0.3
4.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Buy
29
41
214
2,146
2,339
13.7
13.8
11.0
11.5
2.6
2.5
0.2
0.2
9.3
9.0
0.6
0.6
Allahabad Bank
Buy
114
144
5,680
6,876
7,545
2.6
2.5
28.2
30.9
4.0
3.7
0.6
0.5
12.8
12.7
Andhra Bank
Neutral
87
4,863
5,254
5,900
2.8
2.8
21.2
22.9
4.1
3.8
0.6
0.5
13.3
13.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,356
1,853
63,558
19,055
22,710
3.3
3.2
130.7
152.3
10.4
8.9
1.7
1.5
17.2
17.6
Bank of Baroda
Buy
652
851
27,479
16,365
18,781
2.2
2.3
121.3
142.5
5.4
4.6
0.8
0.7
15.1
15.7
Bank of India
Buy
287
350
17,102
14,482
16,383
2.3
2.3
58.1
68.1
4.9
4.2
0.7
0.6
14.4
15.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
53
64
3,526
4,392
4,743
3.1
3.0
12.6
13.7
4.2
3.9
0.7
0.6
16.8
16.0
Canara Bank
Buy
393
481
17,408
11,928
13,467
2.1
2.2
74.8
86.0
5.3
4.6
0.7
0.7
13.7
14.2
Central Bank
Accumulate
65
69
6,800
8,249
9,211
2.4
2.5
14.9
18.2
4.4
3.6
0.6
0.6
12.5
13.8
Corporation Bank
Buy
379
495
5,789
5,558
6,121
2.0
2.0
98.4
107.7
3.9
3.5
0.6
0.5
14.9
14.5
Dena Bank
Buy
83
97
2,909
3,187
3,582
2.3
2.4
23.8
25.5
3.5
3.3
0.5
0.5
15.9
15.1
Federal Bank
Neutral
442
7,556
2,873
3,413
3.0
3.1
52.7
62.0
8.4
7.1
1.1
1.0
13.4
14.2
Financials
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Accumulate
853
933
132,093
8,573
10,142
3.6
3.6
37.0
43.6
23.1
19.5
4.7
4.2
30.0
30.3
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
677
722
161,528
27,682
33,916
4.6
4.6
35.3
42.7
19.2
15.9
3.8
3.2
21.3
21.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,118
1,503
129,058
25,705
30,330
3.1
3.2
83.9
96.3
13.3
11.6
1.8
1.6
15.2
15.7
IDBI Bank
Buy
77
93
10,309
9,477
10,678
2.0
2.1
19.6
22.6
4.0
3.4
0.5
0.4
12.8
13.4
Indian Bank
Buy
139
185
5,991
6,185
6,978
3.0
3.0
37.0
42.2
3.8
3.3
0.6
0.5
14.8
15.1
IOB
Accumulate
59
66
5,452
8,142
8,956
2.5
2.5
16.5
20.7
3.6
2.9
0.4
0.4
11.8
13.4
J & K Bank
Neutral
1,284
6,222
3,074
3,140
3.5
3.2
224.7
201.5
5.7
6.4
1.1
1.0
20.6
16.1
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
260
298
13,144
2,113
2,525
2.3
2.3
25.4
29.2
10.3
8.9
1.8
1.6
18.4
18.3
Oriental Bank
Buy
230
285
6,721
6,835
7,588
2.6
2.6
56.5
63.8
4.1
3.6
0.5
0.5
13.1
13.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
759
994
26,822
20,876
23,929
3.3
3.4
151.7
177.0
5.0
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.1
16.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
St Bk of India
Buy
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
UCO Bank
Neutral
Union Bank
United Bank
25
3,351
1,839
2,091
2.9
2.8
4.2
4.5
6.0
5.6
1.0
0.9
18.2
17.0
2,012
2,637
137,634
67,243
76,612
3.1
3.0
242.4
284.8
8.3
7.1
1.3
1.1
16.3
16.8
128
142
7,696
7,238
8,249
2.7
2.6
27.1
30.4
4.7
4.2
0.7
0.6
16.1
15.9
77
5,818
6,250
6,738
2.6
2.5
12.1
14.7
6.4
5.3
1.0
0.8
11.8
13.0
Buy
208
260
12,392
11,229
12,794
2.6
2.6
40.7
48.2
5.1
4.3
0.7
0.6
14.6
15.4
Buy
51
65
1,900
3,443
3,998
2.4
2.6
15.1
20.4
3.4
2.5
0.4
0.4
12.1
14.8
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
51
2,507
2,730
3,059
1.9
2.0
10.2
11.3
5.0
4.5
0.6
0.5
11.8
12.0
Yes Bank
Neutral
490
17,611
4,390
5,411
2.8
2.8
41.6
47.9
11.8
10.2
2.5
2.1
23.2
22.1
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,540
43,550
12,332
14,524
16.5
16.3
141.6
162.7
32.1
27.9
10.1
8.1
35.4
32.2
3.4
2.9
Britannia
Neutral
690
8,254
6,417
7,502
6.1
6.3
23.2
27.9
29.8
24.7
10.2
8.0
38.3
36.4
1.3
1.1
Colgate
Neutral
1,430
19,448
3,588
4,130
20.5
20.9
44.2
51.8
32.4
27.6
31.5
23.0
108.6
96.2
5.3
4.5
Dabur India
Neutral
151
26,379
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
28.2
24.1
11.0
8.5
41.5
40.1
3.6
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,688
23,922
3,617
4,259
16.1
16.4
122.2
148.7
46.6
38.3
14.5
11.6
34.1
33.7
6.2
5.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
855
29,096
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
34.0
28.8
7.3
6.1
24.9
24.2
3.9
3.3
HUL
Neutral
593
128,181
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
34.7
32.2
33.4
24.2
113.4
87.0
4.2
3.7
ITC
Neutral
337
266,489
34,294
39,991
36.8
37.0
11.3
13.3
29.9
25.3
9.9
8.0
36.1
34.9
7.4
6.3
Marico
Neutral
234
15,066
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
32.2
27.0
6.3
5.2
21.4
21.0
2.9
2.4
Nestle*
Neutral
5,164
49,785
9,447
10,968
22.1
22.3
127.5
154.1
40.5
33.5
20.2
14.6
57.7
50.7
5.3
4.4
Tata Global
Neutral
146
9,029
8,069
8,957
9.8
9.7
7.8
8.6
18.7
17.0
2.2
2.1
9.5
9.7
1.1
1.0
FMCG
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
754
863
52,502
28,633
32,216
21.5
20.7
57.3
61.7
13.2
12.2
3.1
2.6
24.0
21.5
1.7
1.4
Hexaware*
Accumulate
85
96
2,535
2,091
2,289
19.0
18.8
10.6
11.3
8.0
7.5
1.8
1.6
22.8
21.7
1.0
0.9
Infosys
Neutral
2,487
142,815
43,338
47,244
27.5
27.7
169.4
182.6
14.7
13.6
3.1
2.6
20.8
19.3
2.6
2.3
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
167
185
1,859
1,956
2,174
17.9
17.7
20.4
21.9
8.2
7.6
1.2
1.0
14.7
13.7
0.6
0.4
KPIT Cummins
Accumulate
122
135
2,348
2,513
2,819
16.1
15.5
12.6
14.0
9.7
8.7
1.7
1.4
17.9
16.6
0.9
0.7
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
107
126
12,551
8,278
9,062
20.3
20.1
10.5
11.4
10.1
9.4
2.3
1.9
23.1
20.0
1.1
0.9
Mindtree
Accumulate
828
920
3,440
2,599
2,871
19.4
19.2
85.2
92.3
9.7
9.0
2.0
1.7
21.4
18.9
1.0
0.8
Mphasis&
Reduce
433
395
9,100
6,096
6,646
17.6
17.4
38.1
41.6
11.4
10.4
1.6
1.4
14.2
13.7
1.0
0.8
NIIT
Buy
21
30
342
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
4.8
3.9
0.5
0.5
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
524
593
2,098
1,445
1,617
25.2
25.0
55.3
59.3
9.5
8.9
1.7
1.5
18.2
16.5
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,526
298,662
71,833
81,893
28.4
28.0
78.5
88.0
19.4
17.3
5.9
4.8
30.2
27.9
3.9
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Buy
941
1,170
12,088
7,779
8,398
19.7
19.3
107.4
117.8
8.8
8.0
1.9
1.5
21.2
19.0
1.6
1.3
Wipro
Accumulate
343
385
84,427
40,173
43,697
20.4
20.6
26.2
28.5
13.1
12.0
2.6
2.2
19.7
18.4
1.6
1.3
D B Corp
Buy
247
290
4,525
1,750
1,925
25.1
26.6
14.2
16.8
17.4
14.7
3.8
3.2
23.4
23.4
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Buy
100
117
2,342
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.1
12.1
11.0
1.3
1.2
11.5
11.4
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
91
119
3,012
1,664
1,825
20.9
23.0
6.4
7.8
14.1
11.7
2.9
2.6
21.0
23.1
1.9
1.7
PVR
Neutral
326
1,293
1,359
1,540
17.3
17.4
17.2
21.6
18.9
15.2
1.9
1.7
10.3
12.0
1.4
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
423
16,682
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
21.2
18.2
5.2
4.6
26.4
27.3
6.9
6.1
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
465
10,532
13,794
17,088
30.9
33.5
49.3
66.6
9.4
7.0
1.0
0.9
11.3
13.5
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Accumulate
320
345
202,092
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
11.3
10.4
3.1
2.7
37.6
36.2
2.0
1.8
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
15
24
493
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
12.0
5.8
0.1
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.6
0.2
GMDC
Buy
132
193
4,190
1,920
2,239
53.2
52.9
21.6
25.0
6.1
5.3
1.4
1.1
25.1
23.8
1.7
1.3
Hind. Zinc
Buy
113
145
47,577
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
7.0
6.4
1.3
1.1
19.4
18.4
1.6
1.1
Hindalco
Neutral
101
19,251
89,352
93,672
8.8
9.2
13.4
15.0
7.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
7.3
7.6
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
725
16,182
39,973
40,926
17.2
17.0
71.9
82.8
10.1
8.8
0.9
0.8
9.0
9.6
0.8
0.7
MOIL
Buy
202
248
3,397
1,010
1,046
46.5
47.6
26.8
28.8
7.5
7.0
1.1
1.0
15.4
14.7
1.0
0.7
Monnet Ispat
Buy
129
193
819
2,326
2,709
21.4
23.1
33.3
43.1
3.9
3.0
0.3
0.3
8.3
9.9
1.4
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
32
8,234
7,656
7,988
13.1
13.5
2.6
2.6
12.5
12.2
0.7
0.7
5.5
5.5
0.5
0.5
NMDC
Buy
116
156
46,129
10,461
11,892
71.6
72.6
16.3
17.6
7.2
6.6
1.5
1.3
22.1
21.4
2.6
2.3
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Reduce
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
56
53
23,066
44,060
54,786
9.4
11.5
5.2
7.2
10.7
7.8
0.6
0.5
5.2
6.8
0.8
0.7
152
166
13,180
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
5.1
5.1
0.7
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.3
3.6
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
Tata Steel
Buy
88
100
29,439
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
4.8
4.3
0.5
0.5
11.3
11.4
0.6
0.5
290
378
28,204 140,917 151,537
9.7
10.8
30.9
47.6
9.4
6.1
0.9
0.8
9.6
13.4
0.6
Sarda
Buy
106
153
379
1,494
0.5
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.4
2.9
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
31
45
422
0.5
2,615
2,776
12.1
12.0
9.8
10.4
3.2
3.0
0.2
0.2
6.5
6.5
0.4
0.4
Buy
80
102
264
2,344
2,509
14.9
15.4
38.7
47.0
2.1
1.7
0.2
0.2
12.3
12.9
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Buy
290
GAIL
Neutral
304
345
55,312
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.4
5.8
0.8
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.0
1.7
38,612
52,102
52,876
15.7
16.1
34.1
35.7
8.9
8.5
1.4
1.2
16.4
15.3
0.3
0.2
ONGC
Buy
321
Reliance Industries
Neutral
789
372
274,674 170,063 193,024
36.3
36.9
34.7
38.3
9.3
8.4
1.6
1.4
18.3
17.9
1.3
1.0
254,939 380,031 407,721
9.9
69.3
69.3
78.0
11.4
10.1
1.1
1.0
11.5
11.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
211
2,704
3,707
0.6
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
8.9
8.2
2.5
2.2
29.6
28.2
0.6
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
285
3,989
0.6
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.7
30.4
10.7
9.4
2.2
1.9
22.7
21.8
1.2
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
140
167
0.9
10,481
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
9.3
8.4
2.0
1.7
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
Neutral
57
3,202
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
10.1
11.3
5.6
5.0
0.9
0.8
17.3
16.8
Alembic Pharma
Reduce
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
147
139
2,763
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
13.7
10.5
4.3
3.2
35.0
34.7
1.7
1.4
176
271
5,124
6,641
7,637
15.9
15.9
17.3
20.6
10.2
8.5
1.6
1.4
19.5
18.9
1.2
1.0
Aventis*
Neutral
2,503
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
764
5,764
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
27.1
25.3
3.8
3.8
15.7
14.8
3.1
2.5
929
15,649
7,280
8,640
15.5
15.7
38.3
46.5
20.0
16.4
4.3
3.5
23.5
23.5
2.5
Cipla
Buy
373
2.1
477
29,969
9,274
10,796
23.1
23.1
21.0
23.8
17.8
15.7
2.9
2.5
17.2
16.8
3.0
Dr Reddy's
Buy
2.5
2,185
2,535
37,098
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.3
126.8
19.5
17.2
4.2
3.4
23.5
21.8
2.9
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Buy
Ipca labs
68
168
552
1,394
1,534
22.5
22.4
15.0
16.8
4.6
4.1
0.5
0.4
11.0
11.2
1.0
0.8
2,505
21,214
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
32.7
30.1
9.8
8.9
31.1
31.0
6.6
5.9
63
78
584
760
922
15.3
15.3
6.1
7.8
10.4
8.1
1.3
1.1
12.9
14.7
1.0
0.8
Accumulate
604
665
7,623
3,243
3,826
20.5
21.5
36.0
44.4
16.8
13.6
3.9
3.1
26.0
25.4
2.5
2.1
Lupin
Buy
759
877
33,984
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
21.8
18.2
5.1
4.0
26.2
24.8
3.0
2.4
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
377
15,942
11,400
12,060
10.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
21.5
16.8
3.5
3.0
17.0
19.1
1.4
1.2
Sun Pharma
Neutral
999
103,341
13,509
15,846
41.0
41.0
33.0
39.8
30.3
25.1
6.1
5.1
22.0
22.0
7.1
5.9
72
78
1,091
1,444
1,482
33.4
33.0
13.7
14.8
5.3
4.9
0.6
0.6
12.3
12.0
0.8
0.6
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Accumulate
150
163
123,929
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
11.2
10.4
1.4
1.3
12.8
12.7
2.3
2.2
DLF
Buy
196
236
34,910
8,293
9,622
36.5
36.1
5.7
6.7
34.4
29.1
1.2
1.2
3.7
4.1
6.3
5.3
MLIFE
Buy
395
476
1,614
888
1,002
30.6
30.6
38.8
43.4
10.2
9.1
1.1
1.0
11.2
11.4
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Buy
284
338
107,850
86,592
95,860
31.4
31.8
10.9
14.5
26.1
19.5
2.0
1.8
7.7
9.3
1.9
1.6
Idea Cellular
Neutral
129
42,883
25,122
27,663
27.0
27.2
4.0
4.8
32.6
27.2
2.7
2.5
8.3
9.1
2.1
1.9
Rcom
Neutral
111
22,911
22,801
24,628
31.0
31.3
3.6
5.3
31.2
21.1
0.7
0.7
2.2
3.1
2.6
2.3
1,467
1,659
3,118
1,863
2,081
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
20.6
17.7
4.1
3.5
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Power
NTPC
Real Estate
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Accumulate
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
171
237
1,702
3,885
4,472
5.4
7.2
11.0
19.7
15.6
8.6
2.1
1.8
13.5
20.3
0.4
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
522
562
661
630
795
14.4
13.6
42.8
51.1
12.2
10.2
2.9
2.3
26.6
25.2
1.0
0.8
Cravatex
Buy
320
459
83
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
11.8
8.4
1.9
1.6
15.7
18.5
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
52
68
801
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.2
4.6
0.7
0.6
14.3
13.8
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
307
437
401
2,304
2,649
3.1
3.6
28.0
43.7
11.0
7.0
0.3
0.3
3.1
4.7
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
321
345
740
1,458
1,542
8.3
9.0
32.3
37.0
9.9
8.7
1.8
1.6
19.5
19.3
0.3
0.3
Hitachi
Buy
135
177
367
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
9.8
7.6
1.4
1.2
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.4
2,452
2,168
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
21.8
18.5
2.7
2.4
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
Honeywell Automation* Neutral

IFB Agro
Buy
165
198
149
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.6
4.2
0.8
0.7
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
164
234
188
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
8.6
6.1
0.5
0.4
4.9
6.3
0.5
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
198
3,191
1,220
1,476
13.3
13.6
5.5
9.0
35.9
21.9
4.1
3.7
12.1
17.7
3.0
2.3
MRF
Neutral
14,727
6,246
11,799
12,587
14.1
13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0
8.2
8.2
1.7
1.4
23.5
19.2
0.6
0.6
Page Industries
Accumulate
4,083
4,611
4,554
1,057
1,282
19.4
19.6
124.8
153.7
32.7
26.6
16.2
12.0
56.3
51.8
4.4
3.6
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
665
791
798
1,146
1,333
10.9
11.4
45.9
60.9
14.5
10.9
3.0
2.4
23.0
24.6
0.9
0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
255
343
239
1,158
1,322
11.9
11.9
72.9
85.7
3.5
3.0
0.6
0.5
19.9
19.6
0.4
0.4
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
421
617
740
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
11.1
9.6
1.5
1.3
14.5
14.7
0.7
0.6
TAJ GVK
Buy
61
108
379
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.7
6.7
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.3
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
286
371
440
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.4
4.1
0.6
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
TTK Healthcare
Buy
519
686
403
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
21.4
15.6
3.5
3.0
17.6
20.8
0.8
0.6
Tree House
Accumulate
275
297
990
153
194
53.0
52.8
12.4
15.6
22.2
17.6
2.6
2.3
11.8
13.1
6.7
5.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
191
252
146
1,591
1,739
6.1
6.6
24.5
41.9
7.8
4.6
0.8
0.7
10.9
17.2
0.3
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
2,494
36,250
12,294
14,162
12.0
12.0
42.1
67.7
59.3
36.8
4.2
3.8
9.1
10.7
3.3
2.8
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
363
439
738
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.2
10.0
1.8
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Others
Vesuvius India*
Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 10, 2013
Market Outlook
June 11, 2013

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

June 11, 2013

OIL & GAS

RBI penalizes Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (June 7, 2013)

FII Derivatives (June 10, 2013)

Jet Air India

RBI penalizes Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank

L&T bagged `6,700cr western dedicated freight corridor contract

Yes Bank gets shareholder nod to raise USD 500mn

Economic and Political News

Shell, ONGC eye tie-up for retail

Country Event Description

June 11, 2013

Industrial Production (YoY)

June 12, 2013

Jobless claims change

Industrial Production YoY

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Producer Price Index (mom)

June 14, 2013

June 17, 2013

June 18, 2013

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate

Consumer price index (mom)

June 19, 2013

FOMC rate decision

June 20, 2013

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Existing home sales

New home sales

June 26, 2013

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

June 27, 2013

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

BOE Announces rates

June 25, 2013

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

5.1 5.4 5.2

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Agri / Agri Chemical

Amara Raja Batteries

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

79,329 215,016 237,404

Larsen & Toubro