Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 11, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 11, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 58.15 in yesterdays trade. French Industrial Production increased by 2.2 percent in April. Japans Consumer Confidence gained to 45.7-mark in last month. Chinese markets shut today on eve of Dragon Boat Festival. S & P shifts US economy from negative to stable growth outlook. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today, ahead of Japans monetary policy decisions. However, downside in equities has been prevented on account of upbeat Japanese manufacturing data released this morning.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI 5878.0 19441.1 15238.59 1642.8 16556.3 1959.2 58497.8 13514.2 95.77 1386.20 21.92 7168.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.8 -1.5 0.2 4.9 -0.3 0.2 0.8 -0.9 0.0

as on June 10, 2013 WoW -1.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 -2.9 -1.5 8.4 -0.1 2.5 -0.8 -3.5 -2.5 2.7 MoM -2.8 -2.5 1.0 0.6 -5.4 0.7 7.0 -10.7 0.6 -2.7 -7.4 -8.6 -1.4 YoY 16.4 6.3 21.4 23.9 26.7 2.0 8.3 56.7 13.9 -12.8 -23.0 -3.2 -0.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined marginally by 0.01 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable economic data from the Euro Zone. Further, mixed global markets led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, Standard & Poor (S&P) credit rating agency removed near term concerns of another downgrade for US and shifted from negative to stable growth outlook. The DX touched an intra-day low of 81.59 and closed at 81.65 on Monday.

Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated 1.2 percent and touched a lifetime low of 58.15 and closed around the same levels in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of heavy dollar demand from oil importers coupled with concerns over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) of the country. Further, strength in the DX coupled with weak domestic markets came as a negative factor for the Rupee. For the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.752.30 crores th ($132.75 million) as on 10 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.83,957.40 crores ($15,485.70 million) till 10 June 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Further, heavy dollar demand from crude oil importers will exert more pressure on the currency.

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.65 58.15 58.38 58.34 Prev. day 0.0 -1.9 1.98 1.86 WoW -1.3 -2.6 2.44 2.37

as on June 10, 2013 MoM -2.1 -7.0 6.18 6.13 YoY 2.8 -4.2 4.78 4.70

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 11, 2013 Support 58.10/57.90 Resistance 58.40/58.55

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 11, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3269 and closed at 1.3256 against the dollar on Monday. French Industrial Production increased 2.2 percent in April as against a decline of 0.6 percent a month ago. Italian Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent in April from earlier drop of 0.9 percent in March. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -11.6-mark in May as compared to 15.6-level in April. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of rise in strength in the DX. The currency will also take cues from the German Court ruling that begins today. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 76.80/76.60 77.15/77.30 valid for June 11, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3256 74.89 77.1 77.1 Prev. day 0.3 0.9 1.58 1.59

as on June 10, 2013 WoW 1.4 -1.3 4.13 4.16 MoM 1.6 -5.2 8.01 8.06 YoY 6.3 -9.7 11.14 11.21

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated marginally 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5586 and closed at 1.5571 against dollar on Monday. UKs Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance rose by 5 percent in May as against a rise of 1 percent in April. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global markets coupled with expectations of unfavorable manufacturing and industrial production data will add more downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 11, 2013 Support 90.25/90.10 Resistance 90.60/90.80

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5571 90.514 90.60 Prev. day 0.09 1.93 1.67

as on June 10, 2013

WoW 1.6 4.24 4.31

MoM 0.8 7.47 7.18

YoY 0.6 5.55 5.44

90.63

1.64

4.33

7.21

5.50

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| June 11, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated 1.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets in the later part of the trade, which led to a fall in demand for the low-yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 99.28 and closed at 98.76 against dollar on Monday. Japans Consumer Confidence increased 1.2 points to 45.7-mark in May as compared to rise of 44.5-level in April. Economy Watchers Sentiment declined by 0.8 points to 55.7-level in last month with respect to increase of 56.5-mark in April. Business Survey Index (BSI) Manufacturing Index rose to 5-mark in Q2 of 2013 from earlier -4.6-level in Q1 of 2013. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate, taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which will lead to increase in demand for the low-yielding currency. Further, favorable economic data from the country will also act as supportive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 11, 2013 Support 58.70/58.55 Resistance 59.05/59.20

JPY (% change)
Last 98.76 0.5882 59.00 58.97 Prev day 1.3 0.55 -1.47 -1.49

as on June 10, 2013 WoW -0.8 3.54 3.92 3.84 MoM -1.8 9.03 9.01 8.96 YoY 24.4 -15.65 -15.97 -16.03

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 11, 2013

Indicator BSI Manufacturing Index Bank Holiday Monetary Policy Statement BOJ Press Conference German Constitutional Court Ruling Manufacturing Production m/m NIESR GDP Estimate Country Japan China Japan Japan Euro UK UK Time (IST) 5:20am All Day Tentative Tentative Day 1 2:00pm 7:30pm Actual 5.0 Forecast -2.1 0.0% Previous -4.6 1.1% 0.8% Impact Medium High High High High Medium

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