Affect of Negative Reinforcement on Consumer Behavior (Is Anti-Smoking campaigns effecting Recent Smokers-young adults)

Submitted to: Sir Sohail Chuhaan

Submitted By: Tahir Ibrhaim Roll No # 1109 B.B.A 8th Semester (Morning) University of education, Multan Campus

Acknowledgement First of all I would like to thank Almighty Allah for helping me in every difficult time in completing my research. I would also like to thank my Parents and my Friends whom helped me in every possible way they can. Then I would like to take this opportunity to thank our instructor Mr. Shohail Chuhaan who helped us in every difficult situation which I faced in my whole Project. And last but not the least, I would like to thanks all the people who took their time to fill the questionnaires and helped me in completing my research properly.

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Background Information ........................................................................................................................... 2 Problem Development .............................................................................................................................. 2 Literature review ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................. 9 Population and sample size: ...................................................................................................................... 9 Primary Research ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Independent Variables .............................................................................................................................. 9 Theoretical framework ............................................................................................................................ 11 Hypothesis of variables ........................................................................................................................... 12 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Limitations .............................................................................................................................................. 20 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 21 References ................................................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 26

Executive Summary Smoking is one of the most dangerous habits that give rise to many diseases and everyone is aware of its end results. It is a slow poison that keeps on affecting the health and in the end it eventually decreases the life. Even then it is becoming so common among youngsters. To create a negative image in the eyes of consumers, government took stern steps by introducing anti smoking campaigns and banned the commercials that motivate the smokers to smoke. On initial stage government placed the disclaimers on the smoke packs that say smoking is injurious for health and underage selling of cigarettes was banned. Further to have a greater impact pictures of cancerous mouth were introduced on the packs to create a negative image and on the other hand increase the taxes so consumer should think before buying as it is not a compulsory need to be fulfilled. And imposed heavy taxes on the international brands of cigarettes as the negative image creating pictures are not present on them. These all anti smoking campaigns are effective only on those who have recently started smoking. At the initial stage of smoking, it is easier for recent smokers to stop smoking as compare to the regular smokers. In this research the expected findings were to find out the effect of anti smoking campaigns on the recent smokers in Multan , mostly the young ones. General notion before the study was graphical impact is more effective on consumer behaviour as compare to the effect of imposing heavy taxes on cigarettes. The final results were varied from the initial expectations. High taxes played a vital role in de-motivating the young recent smokers to smoke as compare to the cancerous mouth pictures effect on them. And it proves that anti smoking campaigns are more effective on recent young smokers. Later in the study results are discussed in following.

Introduction Cigarette smoke contains more than 4,000 harmful chemicals including over 40 that are known causes of cancer. Smoking is a prime factor in heart attacks and causes cancer of the lungs, mouth and bladder. Passive smoking is the term used for exposure to tobacco smoke, or the chemicals in tobacco smoke, without actually smoking. That is even more dangerous for nonsmokers. According to smokers, smoking is addictive, pleasurable, helps in reducing tension and gives relaxation to mind. These factors are just for time being but in the long run it is injurious to health. According to the global smoking statistic for 2002 Among young teens (aged 13 to 15), about one in five smokes worldwide, which shows that among all smokers, this habit is mostly acquired by the young age children even though it is banned to sell anyone who is under the age of 18. Around the world, legislators are hard at work to make it more difficult for people to enjoy their worst habit of smoking. By placing heavy duties and taxes on cigarettes and with the help of other anti smoking campaigns, they are trying to degrade smokers to buy cigarettes. Still the major companies such as Pakistan Tobacco Company and Phillip Morris International are still generating their profits by selling cigarettes. And people are still attracted towards smoking. Background Information: According to archaeologists, the first known traces of tobacco came from around 6000 BC. Smoking is a practice in which a substance, tobacco is burned and then the smoke is inhaled. Earlier in 1950s smoking was counted as a symbol of attraction and becomes a native culture. There was a time when the smoking advertisements became a viral campaign. Billboards were seen on every street. Clubs were filled with the smoke of cigarettes. Smoking became a status symbol. Till early 60s the advertisements were on their peak, where smoking was appreciated. Advertisements played a major role in influencing the adults to smoke. In 1960s for the first time in the history doctors recognize the signs of smoking effects in building cancers. Problem Development: The ratio of smokers in the death rates increases more than the death with other means of diseases. Advertisements were banned on media. Billboard advertisements were shutdown. Increase the taxes on the prices of cigarettes. Place notes on cigarette packets against smoking
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from ministry of health so one can come across the negative impact of smoking whenever he/she takes out the packet. To make this campaign more affected, government forced all tobacco companies to have pictures of cancerous diseases on the smoking packets to de-motivate the smokers and the children who are at their early age of smoking. And also increases the rates with the help of imposing heavy taxes on the purchase of cigarettes. This results in decrease in smoking consumption in short run. But on a long run the effect was negligible. Consumption of cigarettes is kept on rising steeply. In my research I am going to find out whether there is any effective result of these negative reinforcements on the smokers (recent starters) on their buying behaviour. Does it really affect the people who are entering in smoking recently? As everyone is aware of its end result, still smoking is so common.

Literature review Smoking is the most widespread addictive behaviour in the society. In late 80s around 400000 deaths took place annually in United States due to the excessive consumption of smoking. Chaloupka (1991) used the theoretical model (Becker-Murphy model, 1988) to understand the rational addictive behaviour of the smokers by implying the demand equation resulting through the maximum utilization of cigarettes. And the smoking consumption data used for the demand equation was taken from the National Health and nutrition examination Survey. To get the exact result real prices were used in the theoretical model. The result concludes that there is no specific relation between the consumption rate in past, current and what will be in future. But with the help of this study the current consumption has been decreased due to the intensive increase in prices of cigarettes as compared to the prices of older times. Popham J.W, Potter L.D, Bal D.G, Michael D, Johnson M.D, Duerr J.M and Quinn V.(1993) evaluates that do anti-smoking media campaigns help smokers to quit smoking. The campaign was carried out in California. These campaigns were financed by increasing 25 cents in every pack of the cigarette. The media campaign that took place was targeting 60 percent of the youth. Method that was used to gather the data was with the help of telephone interviews from year 1990 to year 1991. They just targeted the adults that were at least age 18 and a smoker as selling underage is prohibited in California. Total sample was 47717 telephone numbers, only 12000 responded. Interviews were conducted with only 417 regular smokers, those who quit smoking in that past one year when the anti-smoking campaigns took place. Different questions were asked regarding the reasons for quitting. 69 percent responded were those who were aware of the anti-smoking advertisements. Out of those 69 percent 143 people responded that the anticampaigns play a major role in their quitting decision. The major reason for quitting was that the anti-campaigns made people more conscious of their health. Hu T., Sung H. and Keeler T. E. (1995) researched on the antismoking campaign and the tobacco industry response effect on the consumption of cigarettes in California. Government increases the tax on each package of cigarettes around 25 cents. During the period of year 1990 to year 1993 government spent around $26 million on health promotion campaigns. The cigarette consumption data was gathered from the California State Board of Equalization and was based

on the monthly sales of the cigarettes. Information of anti-smoking media campaign in California was measured on the basis of monthly expenditures that took place on them. Gathering data on the tobacco industry promotion activities was difficult to measure. So to have a best result, how frequently the advertisements were there in the news papers and magazines were measured. ARIMA model (developed by G. Box and G. Tiao in 1975, Box and G. Jenkins in 1976) was used to examine the effect of anti-smoking campaigns, industrial counterbalancing response and the cigarette tax. The result shows that increasing the anti-campaigns and decreasing the advertisements on behalf of tobacco industry plays an effective role in decreasing the smoking consumption. To overcome this effect the tobacco industry introduces coupons to attract the smokers but that does not have any effective response. On the other hand increase the price of cigarette package also reduces the consumption level. Edwards C. A, Harris W.C, Cook D. R, Bedford K. F and Zuo Y. (2004) used an experimental approach to evaluate the effect of anti-smoking advertisement on young womens view of smoking in movies and intention to smoke. Total sample was of 2205 females aged 1217 years. 167 refused and the rest of 2038 females were interviewed after attending cinemas in New South Wales, Australia. In the first week a controlled group was surveyed and for the next week experimental group was asked for questions. In the second week a 30 second advertisement focusing the anti-smoking campaign was shown to the group before seeing the movie. The advertisement was shown to reduce the influencing effect of famous actor who smokes in the movie. 48.2 percent among the non-smokers of the experimental group thought was that there famous actor should not smoke in the movie. That actor should not smoke, while according to the controlled group only 28.3 percent of non-smokers responded positively. However the ratio between the regular smokers among the both groups answering to this question remain the same, around 22 percent. But in current smokers of experimental group, ad plays a significant role as they agreed on not to smoke (47.8%). For non-smokers the answer remained the same in both groups that they are not interested in smoking (almost 95%). This study concludes that by placing anti-smoking advertisements before movies that contain smoking scenes are helpful in preventing young women influenced by the film star smoking. Hrywna, Delnevo C. D and Staniewslca C. (2004) research about the prevalence and corelation of purchasing cigarette though internet in New Jersey among the adult smokers. The data
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was conducted with the help of telephone survey from year 2000 to 2002. Sample size was approximately around 3500 in which 1000 were young adults lie between the ages of 18 to 24. The characteristics that were examined in the research were age, sex, cigarettes smoked per day, any attempt of quitting smoking in the past year and the level of education. Cigarette rates were very less on internet sites as compare to the ones that were sold out on the shops in New Jersey. Due to which government place more taxes on the sale of cigarettes to de-motivate the young ones to stop smoking. The result shows that from 2000 to 2002, the purchase of cigarette through internet was more common among the current smokers. The purchase increases from 1.1% to 6.7% during the survey period. Internet as a source of purchasing among smokers increases from 0.8% in year 2000 to 3.1% in 2002. Although the high increase in price plays an effective role in reducing the demand among consumers but have no significant effect on the regular smokers due to which the percentage of purchasing kept on increasing from year 2000 to year 2003. Harris F, MacKintosh A. M, Anderson S, Hastings G, Borland R, Fong G.T, Hammond D. and Cummings K. M (2006) researched on the effect of 2003 advertising ban in UK on the awareness of tobacco marketing. It was a comprehensive ban that prohibited tobacco marketing through any means of media. A sample size of 6762 adult smokers who have smoked at least 100 cigarettes in their life time and recent smokers who at least smoked once in a month (18 years of age and above) was taken and telephone survey was done in four countries (USA, UK, Australia and Canada) as they also implemented ban on tobacco promotions. But those were not as comprehensive as UK policies were. There were two waves of survey. First wave was conducted before the ban was implemented (2002) and the second wave took place after the ban was implemented (2003). In both waves same type of questions were asked to see how much of the changes in labels and the promotions on the tobacco ban affected the consumers perceptions in such a long period of time. To collect required date questions were asked that what factors in the surroundings promote them to smoke and so on. The dada was analysed with the help of SPSS software. The result shows that after implementing the advertising ban there was a significant decline in the tobacco promotion awareness among the adult smokers of UK. Decline in awareness of tobacco promotions was much greater in UK as compare to rest of the three countries. The UK policy to implement a comprehensive ban has significantly reduced the tobacco marketing influence on the young smokers.

OHegarty M. and Pederson L (2006) analyze the reaction of young smokers towards the warning labels. Overall to see the effect of text as well as the graphic warning labels is more effective or the text only labels. Questionnaire was filled by a large number of people with the help of internet based technology where people were asked to just have a single click to the answer of their choice. Questionnaire was based on the warning labels on the cigarette packets. The other method that was used was the chi square test. Here the sample size was composed of around 750 people from whom 75 percent were the current smokers and rest were the regular ones. More than 60 percent from the current smokers and around 50 percent of the regular smokers believed that cigarette warning labels were an important source of health information and their health is affected by smoking. In the case of warning labels, the use of a minor message with a visual image may be more affective in gaining the audience attention for quitting smoking among smokers who are not interested in quitting. It might be easier for one to avoid reading a text message than to avoid seeing a picture of cancerous lungs that covers half of the front of the cigarette pack. Hammond D. and Fong G. T (2007) analyzed that as health warnings are made prominent will create more awareness and will be proved as more effective. They used the sample size of around 15000 from four countries. The sample size consists of all adults and the countries that were chosen were UK, Canada, United States and Australia. To have the required information telephonic interviews were conducted from the year 2002 till 2005. Questions that were asked based on the exposure to the health warnings and memory. That at what extend they were aware of health warnings, implemented by the government. And at what level and period of time they still keep on recalling those warning. In the first survey, packets had only the texts warnings on them but with different ratios of covering the areas of the packs. In Canada 50 percent of the area was covered by the text as well as the visuals that reflect the negative effect of smoking. In further three surveys rest were same but in UK the text size of the warnings were increased that covers the 50 percent of the packs front. Responses from the consumers increased rigorously in UK but still were less as compared to the results in Canada, This all suggest that graphic warnings inducing more of an health related response and motivates the smokers to quit smoking to a greater extent than text warnings alone.

Karine, Patrick, Marine, Sophie, and Bertrand (2009) tried to find out the use of visual warnings in the case of smoking by a qualitative method that was used to identify the effects and consequences of the new graphical warnings on the consumption rate. Six focus group discussions were conducted in countries such as Rennes, Paris and France with 50 people. 26 were the smokers and 24 were the non-smokers and the ratio of the men and women were equal. Each group consist of 7 to 9 individuals. The purpose of including the non-smokers was to make them aware of the dangers caused by smoking and make them not to start smoking. The focus groups were introduced with three Marlboro packs with different warnings and visuals. In another activity focus group was showed the packs with only texts. Their research concludes that pictorial warnings are more effective than the texts. People were asked individually to write down their feelings. 70 percent of the result shows the positive result by degrading the smoking habit. The main purpose of these warnings is to develop a fear appeal in the consumers mind to leave smoking. Richardson, Kalaydjian A, Green, Molly, Xiao, Haijun, Sokol, Natasha, Vallone and Donna (2010) tried to find out the young adults response to a youth focused anti smoking campaign. Previously it was clearly studied that smoking was dependent on the awareness of anti smoking campaigns attitudes and beliefs among the ages of 12-17. But it was not sure that what would be the percentage of awareness in anti smoking beliefs and attitudes among the ages of 18-24. Telephonic survey was conducted from 2000 to 2004, combined and analysed in 2009. The reason for such a huge time span was to have a proper research and to get the accurate results from the research. Respondents were between the ages of 18 to 24. The sample size was 2000 out of which 1570 responded. 80% of the respondents confirm that they were aware of the anti smoking campaign. And the results clarifies that the anti smoking attitudes and beliefs are fifty percent associated with the awareness and rest is dependent on the smoker itself. This whole study was done to have a positive attitudinal and behavioural change in the young adults to quit smoking or to stop them from initiating and establishing the habit of smoking with the help of truth campaign against smoking.

Methodology The habit of smoking among youngsters has been increased from the past years. There are many reasons that come across the young ones to begin smoking. That includes the familiarity (family members use to smoke), seek attention of others to show that they are grown ups and for experimentation and many others. That further leads them to become chain smokers. Government implemented anti campaigns against smoking to reduce the smoking consumption. Population and sample size: Our total population is all smokers in Multan. The sample size includes the smokers that are recently adopting smoking habit. The data collection period is year late 2012-13. 50questionnaires will be floated among recent smokers to acquire desired results. Primary Research: To gather the information on effect of these campaigns on those who have recently started smoking, we will use the primary research where we float the questionnaire among those people who have recently entered into this habit. We will mainly focus on the students of universities and colleges of Multan. This will be helpful to analyze their views against these anti smoking campaigns, whether they are forcing them to quit smoking or not. Independent Variables: Age: Consumption of cigarettes keeps on increasing as time passes. One becomes more dependent on smoking as it contains nicotine that disturbs the humans immune system and causes disorder in the natural body functions. Further intake of nicotine becomes a need for a smoker to make the immune system work properly. As people get older they become more independent in making decisions for themselves. One might continue this habit for his life time. Due to which there is a probability that he might consume more cigarettes in future.

Price: Price has a negative relation with consumption level. As price of cigarette packets increases youngsters who are new to this habit are forced to quit smoking (Hrywna M., Delnevo C. D., and Staniewska D. 2004). Most of them have a limited pocket money and it becomes difficult for them to manage and de-motivates them in buying such expensive packs of cigarettes. Graphical Impact (warnings): Mostly the youngsters are much aware of the side effects that are caused by smoking. Government introduced textual and pictorials anti smoking campaigns by placing pictures of diseases caused by smoking on the front of cigarette packs. It is the way of communicating visually with the consumers and reinforcing them to stop smoking by showing them the end results of this bad habit. This results in making them more concern about their health and pushes them to quit smoking. This shows a negative relation between the pictorial anti smoking campaigns and the consumption rate of smoking. As people get more aware of these pictures and side-effects that are caused by smoking, they will consume fewer cigarettes or there is a possibility of quitting this bad habit. Dependent variable: Consumption rate: It is the average amount of cigarettes that smokers consume on daily basis.

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Theoretical framework:

Age Different impact on different age groups

Price
Imposing tax

Consumption Rate (Cigarettes)

Graphical impact Anti campaigns through advertisements Pictures of diseases

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Hypothesis of variables: H0: Increase in price does not have a significant effect on consumption rate. H1: Increase in price has a significant effect on consumption rate. H0: Age has no significant effect on consumption rate. H1: Age has a significant effect on consumption rate. H0: Graphical warnings have no significant effect on consumption rate. H1: Graphical warnings have a significant effect on consumption rate

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Frequencies Youre Gender? Valid Percent 83.3 16.7 100.0

Frequency Percent Valid male 25 83.3 female 5 16.7 Total 30 100.0 83.3% people are male. What is your age?

Valid Frequency Percent Percent Valid 15-18 3 10.0 10.0 19-22 16 53.3 53.3 23-26 11 36.7 36.7 Total 30 100.0 100.0 53.3% people age ranges 19-22. What is your pocket money? Frequency 1 5 14 10 30 Percent Valid Percent 3.3 3.3 16.7 16.7 46.7 46.7 33.3 100.0 33.3 100.0

Valid 1000-3000 4000-6000 7000-9000 10000 and above Total

46.7 % has the pocket money ranges from 7000-9000. Does the price of cigarette packet matter to you? Frequenc y Valid very much some what not at all Total 9 17 4 30

Percent 30.0 56.7 13.3 100.0

Valid Percent 30.0 56.7 13.3 100.0

56.7% people that the price of cigarette somewhat matters to them.

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If there is a high increase in price of the brand you consume, will you Frequenc y Valid remain loyal to the 4 brand shift to cheaper brand 12 quit smoking 14 Total 30 46.7% people say they will quit smoking. Is smoking common among your friends? Frequenc Valid y Percent Percent Valid yes 30 100.0 100.0 All the respondents say that smoking is common among their friends. Do you think that restricting sale of cigarettes to underage consumers will lead to a reduction in overall consumption of cigarettes? Frequenc y Valid Percent 13.3 40.0 46.7 100.0

Percent 13.3 40.0 46.7 100.0

Percent Valid strongly 3 10.0 agree Agree 13 43.3 Neutral 13 43.3 Disagree 1 3.3 Total 30 100.0 43.3% people agreed that it will reduce the overall consumption. Do you think that visual public service (pictures) messages have long term effect on consumers' memory as compare to verbal public service messages? Frequenc y Valid strongly agree Agree Neutral Disagree Total 3 13 9 5 30 Valid Percent 10.0 43.3 30.0 16.7 100.0

Percent 10.0 43.3 30.0 16.7 100.0

43.3% people agreed that visual public service message has long term effects.

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How do you respond after see the picture of cancerous mouth on the packing of Pakistan Tobacco Company's cigarettes? Frequenc y Valid Percent

Percent

Valid remain loyal to the 9 30.0 30.0 branded reduce smoking 5 16.7 16.7 quit smoking 1 3.3 3.3 shift to another brand 5 16.7 16.7 no response 10 33.3 33.3 Total 30 100.0 100.0 33.3% people said they show no response to such graphical warnings. Do you think that the graphical health warning is creating negative image of product in the minds of consumers? Frequenc y Valid Percent 10.0 16.7 63.0 10.0 100.0

Percent

Valid strongly 3 10.0 agree agree 5 16.7 neutral 19 63.0 disagree 3 10.0 Total 30 100.0 63% people remain neutral to this question. How many cigarettes you consume per day? Frequenc y 8 10 9 3 30 Percent 26.7 33.3 30.0 10.0 100.0

Valid 3-5 6-10 11-15 16 and above Total

Valid Percent 26.7 33.3 30.0 10.0 100.0

33.3 % people said that they consume 6-10 cigarettes per day.

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Is there any effect of these anti smoking campaigns on you in reducing number of cigarettes you consume per day? Frequenc y Valid strongly agree agree neutral no effect Total 9 15 5 1 30 Valid Percent 30.0 50.0 16.7 3.3 100.0

Percent 30.0 50.0 16.7 3.3 100.0

50% people agreed that anti smoking campaigns helped in reducing the consumption rate. Do you think consumption rate is proportional to the income class? Frequenc y Valid yes 6 No 14 no idea 10 Total 30 Valid Percent 20.0 46.7 33.3 100.0

Percent 20.0 46.7 33.3 100.0

46.7% people said that there is no relation between the consumption rate and income class.

Graphs:

Component+Residual Plot for consumption rate

component effect

2.7 1.7 0.7 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7

graphical impact

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Component+Residual Plot for consumption rate

component effect

2.8 1.8 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5

price

Component+Residual Plot for consumption rate

component effect

2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3

age

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Results The total sample was 50 out of which 30 responded to the questionnaire. 25 (83.3%) were men and 5 (16.7%) were women. Three of them lie between the ages of 15 to 18 years. Sixteen lies between age of 19 to 22 and rest between the ages of 23 to 26. All the thirty people were those who have recently started smoking. Around 85% of respondents agreed to stop smoking or change the brand to a cheaper one and rest of 15% respond in the favour to remain loyal with the brands they consume in response to a high increase in prices. Just 25% of respondents agreed that there is a positive effect of graphical anti smoking campaigns in reducing the numbers of cigarettes they consume per day. According to the survey 90% of the respondents consume an average of 3 to 15 cigarettes per day. Stat graphic is the prime software used in the research to find the relation between the dependent and independent variables. Statics indicates that the extent to which the independent variables affect the dependent variable and as fitted explains 65.6033% of the variability in consumption rate. The adjusted R-squared statistic, which is more suitable for comparing models with different numbers of independent variables, is 61.6345%. The standard error of the estimate shows the standard deviation of the residuals to be 0.601703. The mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.448309 is the average value of the residuals. The Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic tests the residuals to determine if there is any significant correlation based on the order in which they occur in the data file. In determining whether the model can be simplified, the highest P-value on the independent variables is 0.5196, belonging to graphical impact. Age is the variable that indicates the direct relation with the consumption rate (dependent variable) and its P-Value is 0.0047 and is statically significant as it is rejecting the Ho hypothesis. It proves that as time passes and a person keeps on smoking, he becomes more and more addictive towards smoking. It gives rise to the consumption rate and makes it more difficult to quit smoking. That is the main reason to focus the recent young smokers to de-motivate them from adopting this habit with the help of anti smoking campaigns as they are the ones who further in future going to share in the high increase of consumption rate of smoking. With a high increase in prices of cigarettes will affect them in a way that youngster will find it more difficult to manage their limited pocket money if they buy such expensive packs of cigarettes. At this age

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they cannot ask their parents for an increase in their pocket money for such a bad habit they are in to. This will definitely force them to quit smoking. On the other hand independent variables such as graphical impact and Price indicate the negative relation with the dependent variable and there P-Values are 0.5196 and 0.0047 respectively. In this case Ho hypothesis is accepted in response to graphical impact as its T statistic value is -0.65288 which clearly indicates that it is not statistically significant but the price variable is rejecting the Ho hypothesis. The recent smokers are not addicted to smoking at early stage and can be easily de-motivated by the high increase in price on cigarettes and increase the chances of quitting. So as price goes higher the chances of decreasing the consumption rate increases. Same is in the case of graphical impact. First there were only disclaimers on the front of cigarettes pack to aware the consumers about the hazards of smoking. As time passed everyone keeps neglecting the disclaimers and consumption of cigarettes keep increasing. Now there is an addition of cancerous mouth picture on the back as well as on the front, covering the 20% portion of the whole packet. The main idea of introducing the pictures on the smoke packs was to gain attention of those who does not pay attention to the note written on the behalf of government that smoking is bad for health. The P-value of graphical impact is not statistically significant (>0.1). The reason behind this poor result is that many young recent smokers do not buy a full pack of cigarettes. They just go for 2 to 3 cigarettes. This hinders the consumers interaction with the picture of cancerous mouth directly. On the other hand to sell their products, smoking industries changes the shape of cigarettes covering and made it more attractive. Due to these reasons most of the consumers (recent smokers) are unable to create a negative image of smoking in their minds which results in no response towards these images.

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Limitations: As anti smoking campaigns are not effective on the ones who are regular smokers, so the research was conducted only from those people who were recent smokers or those who had quit smoking in response to the anti smoking campaigns. It was very difficult to find the recent young smokers from such a large population of Multan. Mostly people were uncomfortable in filling the questionnaire as they dont wanted to share the information regarding their smoking habit. And there was a large chunk of youngsters around the age of 20 who have been smoking since the age of 14 or 15 years due to which they were excluded from my sample size. This further made it more difficult for me to just search out those young smokers who have recently started smoking.

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Conclusion The research concludes that all anti campaigns against smoking are playing an optimistic role in de-motivating the recent adult smokers to quit or at least reduce the number of cigarettes they consume per day. But it is not up to the mark as overall smoking consumption among the population of Multan is increasing. The largest share in the high consumption rate is of the regular smokers, as they are addicted to smoking. Their addiction overcomes the effect of anti smoking campaigns on them and they just ignore the cancerous mouth and keep on smoking. As the result shows that there is a positive relation between age (independent variable) and consumption rate (dependent variable). While the other independent variables such as price and graphical impact have a negative relation with the consumption rate. So, Government targeted the young recent smokers with the help of anti smoking campaigns. It is true that by stopping the young ones will have a minor effect on overall consumption rate but in the long run it will be really effective. According to my expectations, price and graphical impact should have the same and equal impact on the consumer behaviour of buying cigarettes. But the research result shows that imposing high taxes will be more effective and there is no effect of graphical warnings on consumers as its value is statistically insignificant in the results. It is due to the reason that all those recent smokers who had no such influence of these pictorial warnings on them in creating a negative image of smoking in their minds was, that mostly they does not have a direct interaction with the smoke packs that contains the cancerous mouth pictures on them. And just go for two to three cigarettes instead of buying a whole packet. To make sure, those pictures should have the same impact on consumers; Government should increase the size of pictures on packets covering 80% of the area. This might help in a more effective way to reinforce consumers to quit smoking. And selling of couples of cigarettes should be degraded. If anyone wants to buy a cigarette, there should be only one option, buying the whole pack. This will make sure that the consumer should have an interaction with the picture on the packets that reflects the end results of smoking. Availability of cigarettes in the surroundings of a recent smoker, awareness through advertising the negative effects of smoking and making people more conscious about their

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health. Talking about availability, a recent smoker smokes when there is an ease of buying cigarettes and easily available at nearest place to him/her. If cigarettes are not easily available into his reach, he definitely will not smoke on regular basis and might be a chance that he stops smoking. The other factor, awareness, can be created by introducing billboards of antismoking campaigns along the roads side. This will helps in forcing the consumers to create a negative image of smoking in their minds or at least they get aware of the dangerous diseases that are caused by smoking. These factors would be helpful in having more accurate results if subsequent researchers further use these factors in their research.

Recommendation: Governments should have to be mostly focus on addicted smokers, because they have a large share in market, governments have to take special steps to de-motivate smoking in addicted smoker. Statistics show that increase in Price is more effective than the graphical warnings. So Govt should levy more taxes on Tobacco products in order to minimize the consumption ratio. Graphical warnings should be used in more effective manner. Increase the size of pictures on packets covering 80% of the area. This might help in a more effective way to reinforce consumers to quit smoking. Licences should be issued to some selective shopkeepers/retail stores in a particular area, to limit the ease of availability of tobacco products and their usage. Every possible media should be used for anti smoking campaigns such as bill boards, print/electronic media,internet..etc.

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Appendix Questionnaire Q: Your gender? Male Female

Q: What is your age? 15-18 19-22 23-26 27-30

Q: What is your pocket money? 1000-3000 4000-6000 7000-9000 10000 and above

Q: Does the price of cigarette packet matter to you? Very much Some What Not at all

Q: If there is a high increase in price of the brand you consume, will you Remain loyal to the brand Shift to cheaper brand Quit smoking

Q: Is smoking common among your friends? Yes No

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Q: Do you think that restricting sale of cigarettes to underage consumers will lead to a reduction in overall consumption of cigarettes. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree

Q: Do you think that visual public service (pictures) messages have long term effect on consumers memory as compare to verbal public service messages? Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree

Q: How do you respond after see the picture of cancerous mouth on the packing of Pakistan Tobacco Companys cigarettes? Remain loyal to the brand Quit smoking No Response Reduce smoking Shift to another brand

Q: Do you think that the Graphical health warning is creating negative image of product in the minds of consumers? Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree

Q: How many cigarettes you consume per day? 3-5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 and above

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Q: Is there any effect of these anti smoking campaigns on you in reducing the number of cigarettes you consume per day? Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree

Q: Do you think consumption rate is proportional to the income class? Yes No No idea

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