Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

An Introduction to Climate Change and India: A 4x 4 Assessment

A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s

Subodh Sharma MoEF

16th November, 2010. Ashok Hotel, New Delhi

Outline
The Context About INCAA The 4x4 Assessment Approach Emerging results

Context
Human Induced Climate change is recognized as a challenge and threat. Future projections of climate change indicate adverse impacts and wide ranging implications. The concerns of India are even higher Need for assessments of impacts on various sectors at the regional (state) level especially on climate sensitive regions

INCCA
INCCA, network based programme is mandated to Assess the drivers and implications of climate change through scientific research Prepare climate change assessments once every two years (GHG estimations and impacts of climate change, associated vulnerabilities and adaptation) Develop decision support systems Build capacity towards management of climate change related risks and opportunities

INCCA Programmes

The 4x4 Assessment

Focus on 4 climate sensitive regions in India Himalayan Region North Eastern Region Western Ghats Coastal region Assess what would be the likely impacts in 2030s on Agriculture Ecosystems and biodiversity Water resources and Human health affected by climate variability For 2030s

The Regions
The Himalayan Region

The North Eastern region

The Regions
Western Ghats

Coastal Region

Agriculture

Water

The Sectors
Forest & Biodiversity

Health

Approach
Studied the observed climate and simulated the same using PRECIS having a resolution of 50 km x 50 km Developed climate change scenarios for 2030s (average of 2021-2050) using PRECIS run on A1B scenario Changes are deduced w.r.t. the average of the period 19611990s (also referred to as 1970 or baseline) Using these climate change scenarios, have run biophysical models and/or developed criteria for determining the impacts Also used expert judgment to ascertain the likely impacts where modeling not yet possible

A1B Scenario
Assumptions Uniform improvement in Energy Efficiency Reduction in the cost of Energy Supply with use mixed use of Conventional, Renewable Energy and Gas Resulting in a balanced mix of technologies, supply sources with technology improvements with no energy source being dominant A sustainable socioeconomic and technological development.

Climate Change Assessment 2030s Climate Change Scenarios Impacts

IITM

Regions

Sectors
CGWB JU

Institutions

Institutional arrangement
IITR GBPIHED CARI

NRAA IITD

Himalayan Region

Water
NIO

Western Ghats
JNU INRM

IITM

Coastal Areas

Sea Level Rise Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity

GBPIHED

NIO

Institutions = 18 Experts/ Scientists = 43

IISc GBPIHED

North-Eastern region

CMFRI

Agriculture
YSPU IIPH

IARI

Health

NIMR

Climate Scenario
Made for 2030s using PRECIS run on A1B A region climate model with 50kmx50km resolution The parameters studied - Temperature - Precipitation - Extreme events Sea Level rise included in the committed projections of global sea level rise

Salient Findings Projected Climate Change Parameters in 2030s with respect to 1970s
Features Himalayan region Western Ghats Coastal Region NorthEastern Region

Temperature Precipitation Extreme Temperature Extreme Precipitation

Intensity No. of Rainy days

Key increase Slight increase No change decrease No particular trend

Emerging Results Temperature Projections

A warming trend is projected for all the 4 regions under focus in 2030s

Emerging Results Projections for Precipitation

The precipitation levels are projected to increase in all the 4 regions The number of rainy days are projected to decrease, however intensity is set to increase

860'0"E 2130'0"N

8610'0"E

8620'0"E

8630'0"E

8640'0"E

8650'0"E

870'0"E

8710'0"E

8720'0"E

8730'0"E

8740'0"E

2120'0"N

2120'0"N

Sea Level Rise and coastal inundation

Sea level to rise in consonance with the global sea level rise Significant coastal inundation seen with a 1m sea level rise, especially in the low lying areas

2110'0"N

2110'0"N

210'0"N

210'0"N

2050'0"N

2050'0"N

2040'0"N

2040'0"N

2030'0"N

2030'0"N

2020'0"N

2020'0"N

2010'0"N

2010'0"N

200'0"N

200'0"N

1950'0"N

1950'0"N

1940'0"N

1940'0"N

1930'0"N

1930'0"N

25
1920'0"N

Kilometers

1920'0"N

1910'0"N

1910'0"N

860'0"E

Coastal inundation (shown in red) map of Paradip region for a 1.0 m sea-level
8610'0"E 8620'0"E 8630'0"E 8640'0"E 8650'0"E 870'0"E 8710'0"E 8720'0"E 8730'0"E 8740'0"E

Salient Findings
Trends in Impacts for 2030s in A1B
Features Himalayan region Western Ghats Coastal region NorthEastern region

Agricultural productivity Water resources Net Primary Productivity Transmission windows for Malaria
Key increase Slight increase No change decrease No particular trend

Irrigated rice

Rainfed rice

Emerging results Agriculture

There is a general decrease in productivity of crops however cash crops like coconut may increase. Some species of marine fisheries are likely to have higher catch compared to others as their area of spawning shifts to higher latitudes The livestock productivity is likely to be affected adversely with increase in extreme temperatures

Projected changes - Water

Water yield Himalayan region: is likely to increase North Eastern region: Reduction Western ghats: Variable water yield changes projected across the region Coastal region: A general reduction in water yield

Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Forests: Changes in vegetation type and decrease in Net Primary productivity is projected Grass land: Enhanced CO2 levels are projected to favor C3 plants over C4 grasses, but the projected increase in temperature would favour C4 plants Coral reefs: Increase in temperature will lead to bleaching of corals Mangroves: Sea-level rise leading to increase the salinity may favour mangrove plants that tolerate higher salinity
Projected changes in Forest vegetation

Key: 1: Tropical evergreen forest/woodland, 2: Tropical deciduous forest/woodland, 3: Temperate evergreen broadleaf forest/woodland, 4: Temperate evergreen conifer forest/woodland, 5: Temperate deciduous forest/woodland, 6: Boreal evergreen forest/woodland, 7: Boreal deciduous forest/woodland, 8: Mixed forest/woodland, 9: Savanna, 10: Grassland/steppe, 11: Dense shrubland, 12: Open shrubland, 13: Tundra, 14: Desert, 15: Polar desert/rock/ice

Projected Changes in Human Health

Likely increase in morbidity due to rise in extreme temperatures Likely increase in morbidity and mortality due to increase in water borne diseases (enhanced flooding and SLR) Reduced crop yields may raise malnutrition cases (climate) Increase in incidence of malaria due to opening up of transmission windows at higher altitudes (climate)

1970s

2030s

Transmission windows of Malaria

The Programme for the Day

Thank You!