LCEDN Rapid Response Reviews:1 What are the optimal combinations of village scale (ca.

500 household) solar PV-hybrid off grid electricity generation systems for small island states?
Background: Small Island Energy Issues. Small island states share many of the energy access issues faced by poor communities across the developing world. For example, 70% of the Pacific Region population does not have access to electricity (Mohanty 2012) and the total is as high as 80+ % in e.g. the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu (UNESCAP, 2010). In addition, high levels of solid fuel use (90% of households in Papua New Guinea: Mohanty, 2012) have caused substantial problems of deforestation and soil erosion in some small island states. The electricity generation that does exist is strongly dependent upon imported oil, natural gas or coal, the cost of which is exacerbated by high transport costs (Syngellakis, 2012). The cost of these fuels can constitute a substantial percentage of total imports and imposes strong vulnerability, for example, to oil price shocks (and opportunity costs in terms of the use of scarce foreign exchange earnings). The high cost of electricity imposed by this dependence upon imported fuel sources has been exacerbated by the frequently sub-optimal size of generators (Gray, 2010) that may be inappropriate to community size, all of which contributes to electricity costs that can be as much as twice as high as in industrialised countries. Systemic inefficiency also contributes in other ways through, for example, high rates of transmission loss in small island power utilities (higher than 20% in some Pacific Island communities) and the small size of existing and potential demand for electricity, which reduces the cost benefits of scale generally associated with conventional grid generation (Weisser, 2004). On the other hand, despite the clear potential, until recently (see below) there has been only limited investment in renewable alternatives in most small island states due to factors such as: limited access to information (particularly in the context of rapid cost changes within the sector), limited knowledge of RES potential in individual states, lack of finance and poor institutional capacity (Weisser, 2004; Gray, 2010). Resource Potential. Small island states are generally well-endowed with a wide variety of renewable energy resources which have the potential to make significant contributions to meeting energy needs. Scale-related advantages, smaller community sizes and the short distances from substantial wind/wave/tide resources, for example, can be added, to specific resource advantages such as biomass/biofuel potential for CO2 reduction and energy value (e.g. sugarcane, cassava, jatropha, coconut, oil palm, pongamia and algae, as well as the substantial biomass potential of the ocean) and geothermal potential in, for example, Pacific Rim nations. There is growing potential (given increasing global fuel prices) for keying biomass exploitation into existing economic resources (sugar, palm, coconut oil) and energy efficiency measures (efficient bulbs, energy saving campaigns, building design etc.)
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This rapid response review was edited by Ed Brown and Jonathan Cloke on behalf of the LCEDN, it draws upon contributions from Ed Brown, Ben Campbell, Jon Cloke, Aled Jones and Christophe Rynikiewicz..

are likely to have a greater effect at smaller scales. Lastly, proximity and community size gives more flexibility for small-scale/multi-scalar projects such as small hydro at the community level, pico-hydro where appropriate and solar/PV back-up systems, as well as larger tidal/wave systems for larger communities/strategic economic uses. Emerging Initiatives. Despite the historical lack of investment in renewables noted above, recent years have seen the establishment of a wide range of renewable initiatives in small island states, which have begun to take advantage of the potential noted above. These have included biomass, solar, wind and biofuel developments (Mohanty, 2012); Fiji for example already supplies over 50% of its energy consumption through biomass and several islands (including the Cook Islands) have recently made commitments to achieve 100% of electricity generation via renewable sources by 2020 (APCTT-UNESCAP, 2010). Among the most interesting initiatives are those which play to the resource potential of small island states, for instance projects in Pacific Island states that are deploying coconut, copra and palm-oil based biofuels. Small Island Considerations. Aside from the considerations that should pertain to all off-grid systems, i.e. costs, acceptability, robustness and simplicity of operations and maintenance (Jones, 2012), there are, however, plainly special considerations that apply to small island states, particularly in terms of resource constraints and economic optimality. There is, for example, a trade-off to be made between biomass/biofuel initiatives and other income generating uses for commodities such as copra, palm and coconut and indeed for the land itself. There are also substantial environmental considerations (particularly on those islands where solid fuel use is already high) including deforestation and consequent soil erosion, environmental pollution through waste, food and fuel shortages through price interaction, and potential adverse impacts on water sources (Mohanty, 2012: 268). In small islands vulnerability to all of the above adverse effects is substantial and therefore the key to the optimum forms of small island renewable energy technologies is likely to be hybridity and variation, not choosing one/a few sources that replace one form of fuel dependency with another, which has additional environmental drawbacks. Current vulnerability to fuel-oil costs however is overwhelming and virtually any combination of RETs would lead to lower dependency and vulnerability than current patterns of fuel use. Small island states are so diverse, however, that it is unwise to be too proscriptive in the identification of the optimal mix of energy sources. Elaborating upon the themes drawn from the literature reviewed above, we can, nonetheless, make some general observations about the key issues that need addressing within the design of any energy strategy for a small island state. These include: (i) Scale what makes the island/village vulnerable is also an advantage in terms of the closeness to resources, the size of communities and the diversity of RET potential; and it also offers advantages in terms of the opportunities for deployment of

multiple RET resources in different locations (proximity to the sea, inland etc.). Clearly, these advantages will differ from context to context; (ii) Cost Generalisations about relative costs of even individual RETs across small island states are unwise as these can vary significantly depending on location (reflecting issues such as: transport and logistics, labour costs, technical capacity, competing demands on energy resource-use and income levels and willingness to pay for services: Syngellakis, 2012). Despite the urgency of the need to embark upon profound changes in energy strategy within many small islands states, there is no substitute for detailed local cost evaluation. (iii) Environmental Impact auditing existing environmental problems and resource use/over-use to ensure best fit with additional RE use requirements is an absolutely essential element to any small island RE strategy design this should be connected to technology audits (e.g. those undertaken by the Global Sustainable Energy Islands Initiative (GSEII) designed to optimize the most appropriate energy security mix. (iv) Use of modelling tools There are an increasing range of sophisticated modelling tools that can play an important role in determining how different renewable energy systems might be best connected to existing energy systems within particular island state contexts and to make decisions about the balance between different technologies. These can provide key inputs into the development of policies but need to be treated with some caution in terms of how they are acted upon within weak regulatory environments and polarized policy contexts and how they cope with rapidly changing scenarios (Weisser, 2004). (v) Questions of ownership, deregulation and privatization problems of lack of capacity and interest of authorities in exploring alternative systems is a key challenge in some states, there is some debate, however, about the record of deregulation in meeting those challenges (the lack of private sector interest in investing in relatively small systems, the perils of replacement of state monopoly by a private one). (vi) Stakeholder involvement previous small island initiatives have lacked sufficient involvement of/collaboration with stakeholders, this is absolutely crucial to the success of any initiative (Jafar, 2000; Woods et al, 2006); - one example relates to the handling of the differential social impacts of removal of subsidisation of conventional energy costs (e.g. through ending supporting lower costs of imported fuels through general taxation). (vii) Regional initiatives importance of engagement with key international initiatives such as the Sustainable Energy Partnership for the Americas (SEPA), the GSEII and Climate Change Funding modalities (CCF) to support the evolution of national strategies and village-level transformation of energy systems.

References APCTT-UNESCAP (2010) Fiji: renewable energy report, Asian and Pacific Centre for Transfer of Technology and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Suva. Gray, A. (2010) The use of coconut oil as a bio-fuel in the South Pacific, available at: http://www.andrewgray.com/essays/coconutoil.htm. Jafar M, (2000) Renewable energy in the South Pacific - options and constraints, Renewable Energy 19: 305 309. Mohanty, M. (2012)"New renewable energy sources, green energy development and climate change: Implications to Pacific Island countries", Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, Volume 23 Issue 3 pp. 264 274. Syngellakis, K. (2012) Cost of Renewable Energy in the Pacific Islands and Lessons Learnt from the Deployment of Renewables for the Power Sector, paper presented at Sustainable Sea Transport Talanoa, 29th November 2012, University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji, available at: http://sailingforsustainability.org/blog/sustainable-sea-transport-talanoa-28-30nov-2012-presentations. UNESCAP (2010) Green growth initiatives in and beyond the region, available at: http://www.greengrowth.org/gg-initiative.asp. Weisser D. (2004) On the economics of electricity consumption in small island developing states: a role for renewable energy technologies? Energy Policy 32:127-140. Woods J, Hemstock S & Burnyeat W (2006) Bio-energy systems at the community level in the South Pacific: impacts & monitoring, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:469-500.