CRITICAL PATH SCHEDULING: Fundamentals and Concepts

Prepared for the 1962 Convention of the American Association of Cost Engineers June 25 - 27, 1962 Chicago, Illinois

William

P . Allman, Systems Engineer IBM Corporation River Forest , Illinois

(Preliminary

write-up

for convention

distribution

only)

. .

. *

Introduction L, It has been approximately half a decade since the modern network techniques for project

conception of arrow diagramming or logical planning and scheduling,

The widespread acceptance and success of such number of related articles which and technical literature.

techniques is evidenced by the increasing have appeared recently in managerial,

industrial,

This paper will not promote the successes and failures of various applications of such methods, concepts of Critical Rather, its purpose is to introduce the fundamentals Path Scheduling and closely related models. these techniques, Since references in and

computers are a primary tool for implementing will be made to computer programs. connection with the technical L, _ Many different industrially,

The author claims no originality presented.

foundations

project planning and control methods have been used are developing newer and better methods.

and research activities

The popular Gantt Chart and its variations long successful experience, estimated,

have gained acceptance through cannot be underdo

and its value to scheduling However,

but only appreciated.

such bar charts generally

not adequately a project,

represent the interrelationships indicate

between component parts of

nor directly

to what extent misfortunes occuring during Alert project

the course of the project may effect its ultimate completion.

control personnel recognize that any complete planning and scheduling technique should represent this effect in order for them to recognize the potential necessity for corrective action. Also, as interrelationships more efficient allocation

between project components are better understood,

.
. l

L,

of time and resources to the project may take place. Efficient planning and scheduling of a project involves analyzing

it with respect to three variables oost, and resources.

which effect project programs -- time, analyses might be made considering attempts to logically analyze a This It,

While ideally

a combined form of each of these variables,

project in terms of all three have met with difficulty

and impracticality.

is not surprising when one considers the complex nature of industry, therefore, seems desirable to simplify

and attempt to analyze a project in terms A

of one of the three variables,

and perhaps relate the other two to it.

project schedule is not necessary if time is not of consideration; time (perhaps ones greatest resource) appears to be a logical b basic variable,

therefore, choice for a relationCritical

Time costs money and absorbs resources; therefore, may be established.

ships between time and the other two variables Path Scheduling the analysis

is a project planning and scheduling

technique using time as

variable,

Historv of the Techniaue The history of activity ically of network scheduling may be traced mathemata book entitled,

back to George Boole, who in 1854 published

The Laws of Thouqht, in conducting

It is said the Prussian General Staff used such concepts aspects of the Prussian Wars and that the concepts However, many attribute to both

the logistics

were used in World War I by armies of both sides.

the modern conception of arrow diagram planning and scheduling -29

industry and the military. b

The subject technique of this paper is credited Engineering Control Group of E, I, duPont three men: J. S. Sayer, Director a DuPmt Engineer; and James E. Their effort to develop an analytical projects lasted from late 1955 Its name,

to the vision of the Integrated

de Nemours and Company, and specifically of the DuPont group; Morgan R. Walker, Kelley, Jr., of Remington Rand UNIVAC.

method for planning and scheduling

engineering

into 1958, when a computer program was written for the technique. Critical Path Scheduling , has been attributed Mention should be made of the military to this DuPont group. contribution

to the subject,

In 1958 many problems confronted the Navy during the development of the POLARIS missile. organizations The coordination of approximately impossibility 3000 separate contracting of any controlling group to con-

resulted in the virtual

Li

keep pace with the plan and status of jobs assigned to the individual tractors.

The Special Projects Office of the Navys Bureau of Ordinance scientific techniques for planning An joined

assigned to a team the task of developing and evaluating operations the effort.

progress on the POLARIS and similar type projects. System Division

research team from Lockheedts Missile

The outcome of the study was a system called PERT (Program

Evaluation and Review Technique) which has been widely used in industry since its military beginning. While PERTwas attributed as the main factor

enabling the Navy to speed up the completion of the POLARIS project by more than two years, many experienced users have questioned the validity of some

of its concepts. with the addition Diamc

PERT is basically of time estimation Ax>pmach

the Critical

Path Scheduling

technique

uncertainty

conskbrations.

Any industrial partially

project may be viewed as a network of subordinate to accomplish the overand

ordered jobs each of which must be completed Associated

all project task.

with each job are cost and time figures, in completing

management is generally

interested

the entire project according graphically by the

to some cost or time criteria. the construction subordinate ships.

i,

The project may be depicted

of a network or arrow diagram in which arrows represent and are connected so as to show the job-sequence

jobs,

relation-

Construction

of the arrow diagram is assigned

to a person or group

familiar by listing questions

with the entire project from beginning all of the jobs which comprise of each: What jobs immediately To illustrate,

to end, and is simply done and asking two basic

the project,

precede the job, and what jobs let us deal with a hypothetical table: Must be completed before these jobs may start

immediately

succeed the job.

project governed by the following

job sequence

.ML A B C D E F G H

May not begin until these jobs have been completed

-W

D,E,F E,F
H G G H mm
--

-a

A W A,B DJ GF

L,

The following the job sequence

arrow

diagram stated

may be constructed in the table:

n

to graphically

indicate

relationships

There are rules which

must be applied to include

to arrow diagram

construction time restraints.

L/

and they enable For example, the project, be considered, such as loops

the network delivery

any type of conceivable which are not actually

material

lead times,

a job within
may errors1 stated where

yet do govern

when jobs requiring rules avoid While

such material the possibility such rules here,

may begin, of logical

The construction

in the arrow diagram, only one will

are detailedly The condition

in many references1

be exemplified

jobs A and B each must precede precede job D is incorrectly

jobs E and F, but in addition as

job A must

diagrammed

for here it is implied diagram includes and is:

that B must precede D, which is untrue. or dummy job represented

The correct

an artificial

as a dotted arrow

The arrow diagram pictorally be considered construction a project map.

represents

the project and may even have been attributed a front-page article to in the

Numerous benefits in fact,

of the arrow diagram itself; of the Wall

August 16 e 19 61, edition

Street Journal names the arrow to the construction of such as

diagram Map for Managers . The advantages

diagrams alone have been well stated by Messrs. follows: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. It provides a disciplined

Kelley and Walker2

basis for planning a project.

It provides a clean picture of the scope of a project that can easily be read and understood. It provides a vehicle and objectives. for evaluating alternate strategies

It tends to prevent the omission belong to the project. It is an aid to refining It is an excellent

of jobs which naturally

the design of a project. for training project personnel.

vehicle -69

While

these benfits

are significant,

the scheduling

information useful, The

developed from a critical scheduling completion information

path analysis obtained pertains

may be more directly

to the minimum feasible

proj.ect

time, and the starting

and stopping of subordinate

jobs so that this a

minimum time is accomplished. function of the subordinate

This minimum project time is clearly

job times and sequence relationships, Intuitive thinking

with job

times estimated

as best as possible.* project completion

should reveal that by the longest When job times the project then,

the minimum feasible possible

time is represented

time path from the start of the project to its finish. with corresponding

are associated

arrows on the arrow diagram,

length is the longest

path through the project network.

A basic problem, technique,

L,

is the determining fortunately, possible

of this longest path.

(The computational

is such that one does not have to evaluate path from beginning

the length of every There may be

to end and select the longest!)

several paths which are longest ; that is, of equally long maximum length.

*The subject of job time estimating is one of great discussion, and many opinions exist as to methods for obtaining uninfluenced, valid estimates. Many users believe that estimates should be made without knowledge of the location of the job in the arrow diagram so that its place in the overall project is less realized.

-70

The Concept of the Critical

Path the minimum feasible project

Since the longest path(s) determines completion its execution the project. time,

it is evident that a delay in any job along this path (i.e., will increase the length of to the

takes longer than was estimated)

For this reason, jobs along the longest path are critical project completion time.

minimum feasible

From a project control standpoint, of critical jobs in their around

management should emphasize estimated times. jobs. A project

the accomplishment

schedule

should be built,

if possible,

these critical their estimated length.

In contrast,

the non-critical

jobs may take longer than

time (be delayed) and still

not effect the minimum project

L,

Development

of Schedule Information purposes, the project is viewed in terms of events or completion of subordinate

For analysis

through time which represent the accomplishment jobs. Graphically,

these events take the form of nodes at the heads and tails the nodes may be numbered and each job (arrow) Nodes might be added

of arrows. identified

Conveniently,

by the nodal numbers at its head and tail. arrow diagram and arbitrarily

to our previous following

numbered as shown on the arrows.

page .* Job times are drawn next to their respective

I/

*Some critical path computer codes require that the nodal numbers at the tail of every arrow be less than that of that head. Some additonally require that the nodes be consecutively numbered from 1 to n. These restrictions may be difficult to accomplish in large networks, and programs exist to take any arbitrary set of node numbers and transpose them into a numbered set meeting the given restrictions. -80

In any project the number of jobs generally events and may be as great as w for n events, sistent. Project scheduling earliest information is determined for n events.

exceeds the number of If there are more jobs and it is said to be incon-

there must be loops in the network,

by establishing

the

time each event (node) may be reached after the start of the project. time at which the end node may be reached is clearly time. the shortest to

The earliest feasible determine algorithm

project completion these earliest entails

Kelley has devised a simple algorithm With n nodes in the network, matrix. the

node times.

operating

on an (n-1) x (n-l)

Assuming the nodes

are consecutively

numbered from 1 to n, the matrix rows i=l , . . , , (n-1)

refer to jobs start nodes, and the columns j=2 , . . . ,n refer to job completion nodes. starting (Th e row corresponding node, and similarly to i=n is omitted since n node may not be a to j=l is omitted as

the column corresponding -9-

node 1 may not be an ending node.)

The matrix elements

Dfj represent the

duration of jobs ij, and since no jobs exist for i? j, the matrix is upper

L,

triangular. The matrix for our hypothetical project follows. A column is attached time at which node i

to the left of the matrix to hold values of t!, the earliest may be reached.
J t i

0 2 2 6 7 12

id
Consider a project and its Mth node, where the duration of job ij Then ti is the be as many

is Dij and that t E f for all nodes iem has been determined. maximum value of numbers of the form (tf + Dim), numbers involved earliest

and there will

as there are jobs entering node M.

Starting with $=O, the

node time for any node may be found from ty=Mkax (tt +Dki) for i=2, . . r n and kci

- 10 -

The term need not be evaluated hypothetical project the tfvalues

where job ki does not exist.

For our

are obtained as follows:

tf=o

$-Max tf=Max ti=Max

(tf+D12)=0+2=2 (tpD12 I $+D22)=Max (t3D24 t t!$Dg4)=Max (O+l I 2+0)=2 (2+2, 2+4)=6 (Job 14 does not exist)

etc. The minimum feasible is t$=12. desirable and still In a similar project duration, often referred to as x , node times, it is

manner to generating

earliest

to know the latest time ti at which one can arrive at n end node j complete the entire scheduling within the duration x . and working back-

These values may be obtained by setting Ti=*=Tz wards through the project by the formula: tf=tin (tk -Djk) for j=(n-1) , . . . ,2 and k>j where job jk does not exist.

The term need not be evaluated

A row is Our

attached to the bottom of the matrix to facilitate hypothetical project matrix then appears as:

this computation.

- 11 -

---I---

----

I-

-:

3j-jp-q

1 -.-

----_

..---

--_

_. -.

____ ,._-

-ij _

_._. . . .

.._I

_--.

1
_.

1,

1 i I

/.I 2 i
II_ ,,_.___....

+q-.7

-.--

-.-

-+-{

io:2/

; I . ..v-.. i_.-_-! -. .e.-. ---... I

.;;i

jI

j I I

_.

4 !3 1

I 4 _.._ -jI c i

.-..

-I_

-.

2
.._

2
-...

--

.--.-

*,.-.--._I

12

c-m-

ti

..-_.

-.-.

For our hypothetical t;=12

project

the t$ values are obtained as follows:

ti= min (tk - D56)=12-3=9 $=min (tk - D46,$-D45)=min (12-S) = 6

6-4.

t$=min (tk - D 36,t~oD35,t~-D3~4)=min(9-3, etc.

=2

(joxjds~, 5 does not . o,xhs3j . 6 does not

When the earliest can easilty determine

and latest

node times have been determined,

one

the earliest

and latest

times for starting and completing . node time

any job so as to keep the project duration The earliest for its starting starting Thus ESf j=t? -12.

time for any job, ES, is the earliest

node i.

The earliest plus its duration.

finish Thus

time for any job,

EF, is its earliest

starting

time

EFij=t~Di The latest its ending node j. finish Thus LFij=t~ The latest minus its duration. starting Thus LSij=t L j-Dij It is obvious job ij is TAij=tt-t:. job, that the amount

j LF, is the latest node time for

time for any job,

time for any job,

LS, is its latest

finish

time

of time available equals starting

to accomplish for the may occur,

If this time available before

the time required the job, no delay

then no time may be wasted

ES = LS 8 and the job is critical. withstand permissible SLACK), a certain delay star!-ing is known by:

However,

if TAiTDij affecting

: then the job can A* This amount called TOTAL of

delay without

as TOTAL FLOAT (sometimes

TF, and found

TFij=tt-tF-Dij If total float its latest earliest is used, Thus, it is implied a job starting that node j will be reached at

node time tf. time possible.

at node j may not start at its

One might wish at node j may begin FREE FLOAT,

to know how long job ij may be delayed at their earliest possible time. to This

so that jobs starting available delay delay

is called

FF, and it is the time available times.

the job without

affecting

any other job starting

It is found by:

FFij=t5-Dij - 13 -

IWemretin~

and Revisinq

the Schedule path analysis

I (for our hypcthetic a1

The schedule provided by critical

project) is as follows:
JoI? a- Time

-ES 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 6 7

-EF 2 1 7 2 4 6 5 12 10

Ls
0 1 2 2 4 2 6 6 9

E
2 2 9 2 6 6 9 12 12

-TF * 1 2 * 2 * 4 * 2

-FP

l-2 l-3 1-5 2-3

2-4

2 1 7 0 2 4 3 6 3

1 0

3-4 3-5 4...* 6 5-G

The largest value appearing as an EF is 12, and this is the minimum project completion time. Those jobs having zero total float can withstand - 140

no delay and hence are critical.

Jobs with a TF>O can withstand slightly

this

amount of delay and management can relax ment of them.

as to the accomplish-

Should the project length be longer than permissible, jobs should be expedited estimated time. to accomplish their execution

the critical

in less than the critical path

The critical

path may be shortened by expediting

job lengths until these jobs have been shortened so that the critical has changed. This condition would be reached when the critical

path between

any two nodes is shortened so that its length is less than that of any other previous non-critical path between the same two nodes. the effect of changing subordinate job lengths for larger projects, such

In a simple project,

may be seen from the arrow diagram; however,

effects may only be determined by again performing a critical with the appropriate changes.

path analysis

- 15 -

c,

Cost Considerations It has been shown how the Critical as the analysis variable Path Scheduling scheduling technique information. uses time However,

to provide project

project management usually wishes also. For each estimated responding job cost.

to evaluate

a schedule in terms of cost

time length associated

with a job, there is a corresources, etc. ,

These costs vary with the personnel,

required to complete the job in the given time, and generally a job is inversely proportional to its length. The direct

the cost of cost

scheduling

of any project using a given set of job times is merely the sum of the individual job costs associated with these times. Thus, the costs associated path analysis may be time

with the estimated

job times used in the critical

totaled to represent project cost should each job take its estimated during project execution. actual execution, in arriving If any jobs differ from their estimated

times in

the corresponding scheduling

job cost changes must be considered cost of the project. schedule are by no means the scheduling namely, costs, two other

at the direct

The costs associated only costs involved.

with the project

Besides these direct

types of costs may wnrrant consideration; penalty costs. facility Indirect

indirect

costs and of an indirect

costs may arise from the utilization

during a portion of the project,

and penalty costs may be assessed

- 16 -

c,

proportional Indirect as a function scheduling

to project completion

delay after a certain deadline. defined or established

and penalty costs are often easily of project length, costs.

but the same may not be said for direct of project lengths is not job costs may

This latter cost as a function

easily determined

due to a.) the manner in which individual and b.) the variation 4 however, in feasible

vary with job length, Admitting direct certainly

project lengths. to know the

this difficulty

it is still

desirable

scheduling

costs for feasible

project lengths.

This may be done costs

by trial and error where various job lengths and associated

could be changed and their effect on project lengths determined performing a critical path analysis.

by again

(Perhaps only ti , or x I would need in a major project

L,

be determined one really

in these secondary analyses .) However,

does not know which job lengths should be changed to effect While the critical job lengths should receive first

the project lengths. consideration

for being changed,

they alone would effect the project length

only up to a point, path(s) to change.

after which further changes would cause the critical Thus, direct methods for investigating the effect changes

in job lengths (and costs) have on overall desirable. The most significant these effects developments

project length (and costs) are

concerning

the determination

of

appear to be the development

of cost-compression

algorithms While

by Kelley , 4 and also by D. R. Fulkerson of the RAND Corporation.

- 17 -

their techniques both.

are different, assigns

there are cc.rtain ideas which are common to to a job both crash and normal times,

Each technique

and crash

and normal

costs.

The job cost is assumed to change linearly

with time between these two extreme points. Kelleys technique generates a series of project schedule project (assignments

of times to jobs) so that for each feasible the least possible by the algorithm

schedule the total cost is The first schedule generated by assigning to all

for the related project length. is a normal

project schedule developed

jobs their normal times. successive schedules

After this least cost and longest project schedule, are generated down to a crash time project which is for that time. The

the shortest feasible

project length and least expensive

number of such schedules ject structure a specialized Fulkersons the condition as well

is unknown in advance as they depend upon prorelationships. (parametric). technique which works toward in a preThe technique employs

as job cost-time

type of linear programming method is a network-flow

that, given the entire project must be completed time interval,

scribed feasible

it is desired to find job times which minimize

the total project cost. algorithms (or laborious

The result of either one of these compression trial and error attempts) is a direct scheduling as a function of time. of time

piecewise-linear

cost curve showing project lengths available,

With this information may now be determined

the total project cost as a function

from the three component costs. example.

This may be done Curve A represents

L)

graphically

as shown below for a hypothetical

- 18 -

indirect

costs due to the necessary rental of a facility Curve B regresents

throughout the

duration of the prefect,

a penalty cost which is and Curve C re-

assessad for project completion presents ths dkect scheduling

beyond a deadline, cost curve.

The dotted li,?e is a sum of the

three compcr,ent costs. i

/ /

Total Cost Curve

1 cost
~~~~-

A Indirect

Cost

Time .-+

Dkadline

The minimum poiot on the dotted sum curve represents for which the project may be accomplished,

lowest cost

- 19 -

Resource Considerations From a time viewpoint, analysis the ideal schedule resulting from critical start time, path and

is one in which each job is started at its earliest in its minimum feasible

the entire project is completed length is divided

time.

If the project

into basic time intervals, may be determined

the number of jobs being executed Critical

during each interval path analysis

by brute force methods. the condition may restrict For example,

does not take into consideration machine) availability

where limited the number of an ideal worker

resource (men, materials,

jobs to be performed in a given time interval.

schedule might have each of four jobs which require a type of skilled in progress simultaneously, workers.

yet the company may employ only three such

Assuming that a worker assigned to such a job may not be removed project management must decide whether to hire or delay one of the four jobs until one of one of the other three jobs. information pertaining the project The to

from it until its completion, another similarly the three available skilled

worker,

workers has completed

float time of the jobs in question would be helpful managements decision

and, depending upon these float times,

length may be affected. The foregoing is a small example of how the critical and yet resources additions may definitely path analysis govern project does

not consider resources, progress. The following

to the critical

path model would enable

- 20 -

a schedule which considers a. b. c.

resources

to be developed: path analysis, ignoring resource

Perform the normal critical resource considerations.

For each job, define the quantity of every individual required to execute the job in its estimated time.

The project length now known from (a), state the total quantity of each individual resource available during the project duration. (Every resource mentioned in (b) must be considered here.) Considering job sequence relationships and estimated job lengths, develop a minimum feasible project schedule such that the amounts of each individual resource employed by the jobs in progress at any instant do not exceed the amounts of that resource available to the project. in that it would assume the instantaneous of

d.

Such a model would be limited shifting resources graphically of resources

from job to job and would not consider the allocation different projects

to several concurrent apart.

which might even be geo-

MO known extensions sources will job requires now be described.

of Critical

Path Scheduling

which consider rewhere each project

For the unique situation

the same resources,

and the project is to be repeated over and concepts. In

over, Burgess and Killebrew such situations

have studied some interesting to smooth

it would be desirable

the number of jobs in Such smoothing would and depending so that

progress at any instant during project execution. stabilize the utilization of resources

during the project,

upon the structure of the project,

might optimally

provide a schedule

a constant number of resources is in use during each time interval

of many

- 21 -

Lf

repetitive

project cycles.

This analysis

requires dividing levels

a project into

basic time intervals

and distributing

the activity

(job in progress) two computer

over each time interval. programs to a.) determine

Burgess and Killebrew the activity levels

have written

for each project time interval start time, and b.) to Their

assuming that each job begins at its earliest minimize analysis the variance is entitled in activity Activity levels Leveling

considering In Cyclical

job float times. Arrow Diagramming.

Another extension Man-Scheduling gram accommodates may utilize,

is the development

of a computer program entitled, Company. The pro-

by H, N. Perk of the Dow Chemical ten work classifications the availability

which the jobs in the project of the various workmen in arrivworkmen to jobs based jobs to to start if the same

and considers

ing at the fastest

schedule of jobs.

It allocates

upon total float priority, critical

and releases workmen from non-critical No job is permitted

jobs so that the latter may start.

there is a preceding available manpower.

job with higher total float priority

requiring

The neglecting

of resources

by critical

path analysis Many projects

has not appeared which warrant the

to be a setback to users of the technique. analysis are unlimited such that, effectively,

any number of resources may Also, the ability to

be applied to all jobs in progress at a given instant.

take advantage of job float time decreases the 1ikeUhood that a project will be severely resource-restricted.

- 22 -

Related Techniaues - PERT, PEP. LESS. DBPS

I
name for the it has its own

b
specific

The term PERT is rapidly becoming entire class of arrow diagram techniques. original characteristics and differs

the representative Nevertheless,

somewhat from basic Critical

Path Scheduling

due to the purposes of its conception. give details of the PERT3 system, Briefly, its developers and scheduling the origination

Many references

of which was earlier described. important requirement of detailed,

felt that the most was the provision

for project planning time estimates

well-considered

of project jobs and that since must be exposed. projects.) With this three time

many estimates

are highly uncertain,

this uncertainty

(This is especially

true of research and development

in mind and assuming an arrow diagram for the project exists,

L,

estimates

(optimistic,

pessimistic

and most likely)

are made for each job.

Letting

a = optimistic job length b = pessimistic job length and m = most likely job length, 1.) that the beta distribution statistically represents an

and assuming

adequate model of the distribution deviation equations of this distribution

of job times,

and that 2.) the standard (b-a), the following

is represented

by l/6

for expected job time and job time variance are derived: 43 = expected job time = a + 4m + b b-a 2 T2e = job time variance = (+

As in Critical

Path Scheduling

where job durations job times.

are summed for The job time time TE and

each path to a node, PERT sums the expected variances

are also summed to each node, giving an expected - 23 -

and variance ri

of reaching a specific node (event) after the start of the the central-limit theorem, PERTassumes that the pro-

project. bability

Utilizing distribution

of times for reaching an event may be closely approxidistribution. Thus a normal VE exists for each

mated by the normal (Gaussean) probability distribution

curve with mean TE and standard deviation

node, TE for that node being the largest earliest ending at the node. The probability

finish time among node in

of reaching a job completion

time TE is assumed to be 50%. If it were desirable to determine what chance or probability for completing existed

a job in some assigned schedule time TS (other than in the time TE) , the procedure would be to determine how TS is away from TE. PERTdoes this, and the probability may be extended to the entire project

expected completion

many standard deviations

L,

concept of job completion by statistically analyzing

the final project node. of some of

Recent studies have developed questions as to the validity PERTs probability concepts,

It has been shown that the degree to which a

project is broken into jobs will affect the sum of job time variances along project paths, and affect job completion probabilities accordingly. Also, of

when two or more jobs end at the same completion

event, the distribution

job completion for each of such jobs is taken to be that of the event, which is actually the distribution of the latest-expected job. This puncture error

affects job completion probabilities probability.

also, and hence the project completion

These two areas of question have caused some users to ignore implications. - 24 -

PERTs probability

Li

PEP (Program Evaluation technique

Procedure) is basically

the name of a PERT

which has been used by the Air Force. programs developed by IBM for

LESS is the name given to different its line of computers. Scheduling The letters

stand for Less-Cost-Estimating-and tool. of

for which the programs serve as an analysis developed technique for the planning

A recently research projects,

and scheduling

where one or more of a choice of several new jobs may of a given job depending upon the results Research,

be performed after the completion

of that job, has been approached by Howard Eisner of Operations Inc. realizes The technique, known as I Decision job results

Box Planning and Scheduling, determine what jobs should follow path of jobs if every (there an arrow of job

that in many projects,

to accomplish

the project objective

and that no predetermined beginning. However,

may be formulated conceivable

prior to the projects

path which might be taken following

a jobs results

would be a path for each distinguishable diagram could be made showing all paths. results possible could be assigned

job outcome) were known, Estimated probabilities

to the corresponding

job paths,

and the set of all Project

project outcomes could be evaluated

probabilistically.

management would then have a reasonable possible project paths and outcomes. principles also.

measure of the chances of various

This approach may perhaps be combined of Critical Path Scheduling to evaluate

with the basic scheduling job schedules

probabilistically

- 25 -

The Contribution

of the Computer that applications of the critical path technique computers.

It is significant

have developed with the increasing This fact is not surprising computations

availability

of electronic

to anyone who has attempted the network size -- the tedious are a natural for

by hand for a project of considerable decisions and arithmetic

yet simple logical the computer. for the technique facturers efforts. a critical them.

operations

The quick realization

of the value of computer programs and major computer manu-

has led to many being written

have promoted the availability

of such programs in their marketing

There have been known to be groups which would not have attempted path analysis had a computer and program not been available to

The primary benefit of the computer is obviously simulate the effect of changes from the originally

the ability project.

to

conceived

Most computer programs assign job information on a one-job-per-card time will basis,

punched in input cards

and the effect which changes in cost and by merely changing the

have on the entire project is determined the solution.

input card and re-running

Some roughly quoted times on difare: 10 minutes on the IBM 1401

ferent computers for various projects

computer for 1,000 jobs; 20 minutes on the IBM 1620 computer for a project of similar size; and 3 l/2 minutes on the IBM 7074 computer for The latter large scale program is a comprehensive calculations, and also converts an

a project of 500 jobs. one which includes arbitrarily

uncertainty

node-numbered

network into a sequentially - 26 -

numbered one.

Various computer users have added to the basic information by the techniques.

provided

Some programs produce output on a calendar Others provide

(dated) time basis rather than a running time basis.

for job progress status to be entered and compared with planned expected progress so that the computer will effects indicate delays and

their ultimate

to the project management.

Various computer

report formats have been developed, government agencies require Critical prior to a bid for a project contract In any project, result in illogical will
t,

and it is well known that Path Schedules to be performed

and during project execution.

invalid

input data to the computer program may in the arrow diagram. The program

paths (loops)

generally

stop due to an error-detecting to discover the error.

halt and the input data has been edit

must be analyzed lightened

This difficulty

by the development

of computer progrim:

which will

a network and determine any and all loops therein. basically isolate

The techniques

any and all loops by tracing every path in the neL*ork will undoubtedly save many hours of input data

and their existence examination

in large projects. that the extension analyses, to implement To the authors of the basic Critical Path

It is conceivable Analysis into additional

such as the cost compression, without the computer as a the only users of the B. F. Goodrich) are

would not be practical computational compression

i,

tool.

knowledge,

technique

(e .g . , General Motors, on large-scale -27computers.

running their solutions

The Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion

Plant has developed a computer

L,

program to analyze a project which uses no more than 24 distinct resources and summarize the use of each resource by jobs which

are in progress during each time interval throughout the project duration. Without doubt, many other users have developed somewhat confidential extensions of the basic

programs considering technique.

The foregoing items only briefly

indicate the extensive role

computers will play in project planning and scheduling techniques in the future. Even the largest, most sophisticated project may be of todays provided

analyzed at low cost due to the speed and capability computers.

More often than not, the value of information

c/

by a computer analysis time.

is many times worth the cost of computing

- 28 -

as of APDlication:

A Qualitative

ADrxaisal with success, to

c/

Critical amazingly

Path Scheduling

has been applied,

different

types of projects

ranging from the production of the most intricate events are

of a BrCMdway theatrical weapons systems.

to the development

Even a marriage and its associated

said to have been arrow diagrammed! niques were originally projects, their industrial

While arrow diagram techand construction

used mainly on military application

has expanded to the launching installation of computer and and is a firm

of new products, business education believer systems,

sales campaigns, plant maintenance activities.

and repair projects,

and training in the benefits

The IBM Corporation

of the technique,

for. mgny new .$BM product of any

announcements IBM building

are critical or facility. customers,

pathed , as is the construction In addition, a periodic project. IBM offers, critical

as a service to its of the

Data Processing companys sophisticated

path analysis

computer installation

But, it does not take a picture provided

effort to benefit from the project

by an arrow diagram and the scheduling critical path analysis. Many experienced

information

provided by a

users claim that more occurred from a

than 60% of the benefits

gained from the technique

simple arrow diagram sketch. Interest in the cost considerations is growing such that users cost in-

are trying to overcome a previous

problem of non-existent

L/

formation. function least-cost

As cost accounting of time will

methods improve,

job costs as a and

be more easily realized analyses will

and obtainable,

compression

be better facilitated.

- 29 -

L *

In short, the potential L,

extensions

to and applications

of Critical and overcome

Path Scheduling seem to be limited only by human imagination foresight. The computational burden has been significantly

and industry management has definitely analytical technique as a significant

accepted the use of this modern aid to project planning and scheduling.

- 30 -

c/

&fete1. Review of the Potential of the Arrow Diagramming Technique in Planning, Scheduling, and Evaluating Business Programs , a manual published by the Du Pont Company, Petrochemicals Division. Kelley, J, E. Jr. and Walker, Morgan R.; Critical Path Planning and Scheduling, a Summary; Mauchly Associates Inc.; Ambler, Pa., May 1960. Malcolm, D. G.; Roseb.oom , J. H.; Cl&, C.E.; and Frazar, W .; Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation , in Operations Research, Vol. 7, 1959, pg. 646-669. Kelley, 3. E. Jr.; Critical Path Planning and Scheduling, Mathematical Basis , in Operations Research; May-June, 1961, pg. 296-320. Fulkerson, D. R.; A Network Flow Computation for Project Cost Curves ; paper P-1947, Mathematics Division, the RAND Corporation, March 1960. Burgess, A. R. , and Qllebrew, J. B. ; Variation in Activity Level on a Cyclical Arrow Diagram inThe Journal f In&w Enaineerinq, Volume XIII, No, 2, March-April 196:. Eisner, H. ; A Generalized Network Approach to the Planning and Scheduling of a Research Program &n Onerations Research, Vol. 10, 1962, pgs. 115-125. Jarnagin, M. P.; Automatic Machine Methods of Testing PERT Networks for Consistency ; U. S. Naval Weapons Laboratory Technical Memorandum; Dahlgren, Virginia, August 1960. Prostick, J. M.; II Loop Tracing in PEP-PERT Networks ; Space Technology Laboratories; Los Angeles; April 1961.

2.

3.

4.

5.

c,
6. 7,

8.

9.

and Control 10, Smith, M. E.; IA Discussion of an Action-Planning Technique; International Minerals and Chemical Corporation; Catisbad, New Mexico; August 1960.