Socit qubcoise de science politique

Numbers and Newness: The Descriptive and Substantive Representation of Women Author(s): Karen Beckwith Reviewed work(s): Source: Canadian Journal of Political Science / Revue canadienne de science politique, Vol. 40, No. 1 (Mar., 2007), pp. 27-49 Published by: Canadian Political Science Association and the Socit qubcoise de science politique Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25166063 . Accessed: 11/01/2013 01:23
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Numbers and Newness: The Descriptive and Substantive Representation ofWomen

Karen
I. Introduction

Beckwith*

Case Western Reserve University

"Does the election of more and more women mean thatwomen will be better represented?" (Reingold, 2000: 2). A wide body of literature on women and representation in the United States, well reviewed and well cited, indicates that the number of women in politics has a positive impact in terms of symbolic implications, policy ramifications and mobilization

consequences 1998; (Dodson, 2006; Reingold, 2000; Thomas andWilcox, Kathlene, 1998; Darcy, Welch and Clark, 1994). "[Descriptive represen tation by gender improves substantive representation forwomen in every polity for which we have a measure" (Mansbridge, 2005: 622). As the numbers of women in elective office in theUnited States have increased slowly and incrementally,1 so has the evidence that these increases may have policy ramifications. The linkage of women's descriptive and sub stantive representation?regardless, of how problematic that link might to be?has the the sheer number of women and to attention undergirded number-based theories of women's representation.2 This article examines the theoretical underpinnings of two number based theories employed by women and politics scholars to explain and to predict elected women's policy impacts: "critical mass" theory and sex-ratio (or proportions) theory. Each of these theories concerns the rela tionship between the numerical, descriptive presence of women and pub lic policy outcomes. In discussing these theories, I examine their utility for understanding the impact of an increasing number of elected women,

Readers who provided Acknowledgments: critiques of an earlier version of this arti cle include Lee Ann Banaszak, Sarah Childs, Rich Dodson, Phillip Cowley, Debra ard E. Matland, and Donley Studlar. They share all my gratitude and Pippa Norris none of the responsibility. Beckwith,

*Karen

sity, Cleveland,

of Political Case Science, Department Ohio 44106 USA; karen.beckwith@case.edu

Western

Reserve

Univer

Canadian Journal ofPolitical Science /Revue canadienne de sciencepolitique 40:1 (March/mars 2007) 27-49 DOI: 10.1017/S0008423907070059 ? 2007 Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadiennede science politique) and/et la Societe quebecoise de science politique

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28 Karen

Beckwith

identify hypotheses for testing, and discuss the importance of a focus on "newness" as well as "numbers" in studying links between women's descriptive and substantive representation.

II. Critical Mass

and Women's

Substantive

Representation

Women's descriptive representation and the literature that addresses the means by which more women might be elected to national office involve, at face value, number-based models. The most prevalent number-based scholarship linking women's descriptive and substantive political repre sentation focuses on the concept of "critical mass" (Childs and Krook, 2005; Dahlerup, 1988, 2006). "Critical mass" links women's descriptive to representation policy change through the linchpin of a threshold num ber which, once surpassed, has a transformative impact upon legisla tures and serves to produce policy change. Whether deriving from nuclear physics (Norris and Lovenduski, 2001) or from organizational behaviour

research (Studlar and McAllister, 2002: 234), critical mass models a relationship between numbers and outcome. Norris and Lovenduski marize critical mass theory thus:

posit sum

a group remains a [T]he nature of group interactions depend upon size. When distinct minority within a larger society, itsmembers will seek to adapt to their to the predominant rules of the game.... But once surroundings, conforming the group reaches a certain size, critical mass that there will theory suggests be a qualitative starts to assert change itself and in the nature thereby of group interactions, as transform the institutional culture, the minority norms and

values.

(2001:2-3)3

Similarly, when the number of women elected to parliaments increases beyond a certain point, the result should be "a transformation in the insti tutional culture, political discourse, and policy agenda" (Norris and Lov summarize critical enduski, 2001: 3). Donley Studlar and Ian McAllister mass theory inmuch the same way, but focus on the impact of a critical mass of elected women upon additional women's candidacies. They con sider the claim that a critical mass of elected women, once reached, "would encourage and legitimize the presence of women in legislatures, leading to even more women being chosen" (Studlar and McAllister, 2002: 234). More recent research also suggests that increases inwomen's par at the liamentary presence are related towomen's electoral mobilization mass level, heightened interest in electoral politics among women, and increases inwomen's voting turnout (for theUS, see Dolan, 2006). Crit ical mass, as a concept indicating women's descriptive representation,

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Abstract.

The concept of "critical mass," drawn from physics and organizational behaviour literatures, has been employed by women and politics scholars as a potential theoretical under pinning for explaining and predicting women's substantive representation in national legislatures. critical mass two number-based theories of women's substantive representation? assesses their theoretical utility. It theory and sex-ratio proportional theory?and then proposes the alternative of focusing on the impact of newness, or a substantial increase in the number and proportion of women elected for the first time, on women's substantive repre article examines

This

ness" and "numbers"

identifies research design issues and discusses the intersection of "new for evaluating women's substantive representation in parliaments. Offering a range of hypotheses for testing, it concludes by identifying an irony for critical mass research and by underscoring the necessarily gendered nature of the newness-numbers intersection. sentation. The article

Resume. Le concept de ? masse critique ? issu de la physique et de la recherche en comporte ment organisationnel a ete utilise par les specialistes du rapport femmes et politique comme modele theorique possible pour expliquer et predire la representation substantive des femmes dans

les legislatures nationales. Cet article se propose d'examiner deux theories quantitatives de la representation substantive des femmes et d'evaluer leur utilite theorique : 1. la theorie de la masse critique et 2. la theorie proportionnelle du sex ratio, et propose un autre modele base sur 1'incidence de la nouveaute, ou une augmentation sensible dans le nombre et les propor tions de femmes elues pour la premiere fois, sur la representation substantive des femmes.

Larticle

se penche sur les questions de methodologie de la recherche et analyse l'interet du ? nouveaute ? et ? chiffres ? pour 1'evaluation de la representation substan d'intersection point tive des femmes dans les parlements. A partir d'un choix d'hypotheses permettant d'evaluer ces modeles, 1'article conclut en identifiant une ironie en ce qui concerne la recherche de masse critique et en soulignant le fait que forcement marquee par le genre. la nature du point d'intersection nouveaute/chiffres est

should arguably have itsmost powerful impact on policy outcomes, or substantive representation (Dodson, 2006; Grey, 2002; upon women's Reingold, 2006). Despite differences in focus on the potential and actual outcomes of increases in the number of women elected to national legislatures, and the variety of dependent variables identified in this body of scholarship, critical mass models of women's representation share several compo nents. First, the number of elected women constitutes the independent variable, operationalized by a measure of women's presence in national (or state) legislatures. Second, the number of women in a legislature rel ative to the size of the legislature, or the percentage of women, estab lishes a critical mass. Third, most scholars posit critical mass numbers that can be encompassed by a critical representation threshold, ranging between 15 and 30 per cent (Beckwith and Cowell-Meyers, 2003; see

Studlar and McAllister, 2002: 235-238; Bystydzienski, 1992: 15). There women to be that where constitute less than appears general agreement 15 percent of a legislative body, women's influence will be constrained at best.4 Finally, critical mass theory requires a longitudinal research strat egy, since its testing requires identifyingmovement across a critical rep resentational threshold across time.

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30 Karen Problems While with Critical Mass

Beckwith

in the research on theory is severely underdeveloped women's descriptive and substantive representation, evidenced in the first instance by its treatment both as a concept for testing and as a larger theory (or at least model), neither of which is clearly delineated. In theo retical terms, it is unclear what specific number or percentage might ignite the transformations, in terms of, for example, policy initiatives or insti tutional culture. Because critical mass ultimately requires quantification, this necessitates a theoretical specification of a threshold and its justifi cation. What critical representation threshold marks the beginning of important policy or preference changes, and why that threshold?

and Krook, 2006). Critical mass

share common components, they also share similar shortcomings. These include: 1) the under-theorized nature of crit ical mass; 2) the problematics of conceptualizing critical mass; and 3) research design challenges (for furthercritiques of critical mass, see Childs

critical mass models

In physics, critical mass is linked to a process of change, but in polit ical science, insofar as critical mass is posed as a dichotomous variable, ithas little explanatory value. A dichotomous functioning of critical mass as a variable suggests that once critical mass is achieved, automatic changes then ensue or, in a more modest representation, processes already under way accelerate. In the absence of a well-developed theory, it is
unclear what factors tie critical mass

positive and negative impacts, consistent with specific outcomes, such as institutional cultural transformation, coalition building and policy enact ment, each of which would require detailed, distinctive theorizing. The under-theorized nature of critical mass is also evident in the fact that, generally, positive implications of critical mass are presented

models must theorize explicit and, presumably, different impacts of crit ical mass upon each set of dependent variables. A critical mass of women, however quantified, in a national legislature could be expected to have

(explanatory) and what number or percentage constitutes the critical mass that sets these processes inmotion (predictive).5 The theoretical underdevelopment of critical mass is also evidenced the range of factors and behaviours it has been employed to explain by (see particularly the review of the literature by Studlar and McAllister, 2002). Its utility is variously presented as explaining access to nomina tions and (eventually) election to parliament; an increased ability of female legislators to enact policy; changes in legislative behavioural norms; the source of increased feminization of public policy; and increasingly fem inist public policy. The range of potential dependent variables reflects, in part, the richness and the vagueness of women's substantive represen tation. Given the numbers of potential dependent variables, critical mass

to anticipated

qualitative

changes

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Numbers

and Newness

31

among the potential outcomes. Conceivably, however, critical mass could also explain negative outcomes (see Beckwith and Cowell-Meyers, 2003; Childs and Krook, 2005; Dodson, 2006; Studlar and McAllister, 2002). These include an increasing hostility toward female legislators or increas ing resistance to the nomination of women. Beyond negative implica tions involving potential provocations to and hostilities ofmale legislators could and legislative gate-keepers, more general negative consequences an of include, for example, party coalitions, as increasing fragmentation

female representatives of several parties form alliances along gender lines, or an increasing polarization of female legislators, into left and right camps, as ideological differences become highlighted with the higher num ber of women, representing multiple parties, elected to parliament. In terms of concept development, critical mass is ultimately pre sented as a dichotomous independent variable, indicating a critical rep resentation threshold, where a critical mass of women is present (i.e., above the threshold) or absent (i.e., below the threshold). In operational izing critical mass, a critical cutoff or threshold for critical mass has been difficult to specify. First, the early literature generally identified women elected to a national legislature as the "mass base" for a critical mass,

implicitly advantaging gender relative to other factors, most particularly political party. The increase inwomen's representation in parliaments in West Europe, North America and Latin America has been fuelled pri marily by an increase in women's election from left-wing (rather than right-wing) parties,6 conflating the number of women with the number of left-wingwomen. Particularly in regard to claims about the policy impacts of the increasing number of women in parliaments, the block-booking of

gender (female) and party (left-wing) may have led tomore optimistic con clusions about the impact of the number of women than iswarranted. The mass base for critical mass would provide more utility for the concept if itwere operationalized within specific parties (see, e.g., Dodson, 2006: 36-37; Sanbonmatsu, 2002a, 2002b),7 permitting the development ofmore powerful and subtle hypotheses for testing?for example, that a critical mass of women within a leftparty will leverage women in other parties (that is, increase their likelihood) Challenges to support women's policy issues.8 Research Design

Third, critical mass models face specific research design challenges. These include case selection, context, time frame and small numbers problems. Moreover, any research design attempting to assess the impact of a crit ical mass of elected women will necessarily require longitudinal analysis. To test hypotheses based on critical mass, case selection will have

to take into account, first, the time-bound nature of previous findings of women's parliamentary presence and its effects. Research on women's substantive policy representation generally (if not exclusively) employs a

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32 Karen

Beckwith

post-1970 time frame. A larger time frame, including periods and par liaments when few or no women held national legislative office, may implicate factors other than women's parliamentary presence in the pro mulgation of women's policy issues. For example, legislation securing liberalized divorce in Italy in 1968 preceded increases inwomen's descrip

tive representation (Beckwith, 1987). Similarly, in 1971, with only 10 women in the House and a lone woman in the Senate, theUS Congress nonetheless passed the Comprehensive Child Development Act, "which would have provided federally regulated and funded child-care centers open to parents of all incomes on a sliding fee basis. Although the bill

Second, critical mass models will benefit from testing across a wide range of national parliaments. These models have problematic empir ical underpinnings, because some critical mass predictive claims have employed evidence from Scandinavian countries, which does not permit control for factors distinctive of Scandinavia 1992; (see Bystydzienski, The evidence is that Scandinavian nations 1988).9 Dahlerup, empirical in parliaments and govern have notably large percentages of women ments, as well as enviable state welfare policies forwomen and children. That these two properties?high percentages of female legislators and feminist public policies?are simultaneously present is suggestive but not conclusive of a causal relationship. Case selection will have to be located in clearly theorized models, and cases selected to provide a range of vari

passed Congress with bipartisan support, [President] Nixon vetoed the bill inDecember 1971" (Banaszak, Beckwith and Rucht, 2003: 1). Critical mass models will have to be tested in conditions of few women in parliament, as well as in cases where women's numbers have declined across time (these cases may be difficult to find; see, however, Bratton, 2005). The application of models of substantive representation to periods when women were absent from parliaments will help to eluci date the process by which increases in descriptive representation lead to substantive policy progress forwomen.

ation, clearly specified. Case selection will provide greatest analytical leverage where par liaments with few women or littlewomen-friendly public policy are also chosen. Selecting cases on the basis of an established critical mass num ber and current empirical evidence?that is, based upon the actual num a tautology. To the extent ber of women in office in selected nations?risks that critical mass models embrace a claim that a threshold number of women will result in progressive public policy forwomen, identification of the threshold is a post facto specification based on the value of the dependent variable (in this example, public policy outcomes). Employ ing this reasoning, the threshold number can only be specified once the value of the dependent variable is known, establishing a tautological equiv alence between the independent and dependent variables.

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Numbers

and Newness

33

Parliamentary Union,11 only Rwanda (48.85%, 2003) and Sweden (45.3%, 2002) meet this threshold, and only ten nations meet a 35 per cent thresh old, half of which are northern European.12 Eight nations meet a 30 per cent threshold, three of which are northern European.13 To the extent that these nations are distinctive (northern European, social welfare states, primarily post-industrial), they may over-determine conclusions drawn about the relationship between numbers of elected women and their polit ical representational impact.When the empirical considerations move from women in legislatures to women within party groupings in legislatures, the small-n problem becomes a small-n crisis. Cases will also have to be selected to provide variation in legislative context. This includes taking into account, for example, the inclusion of left parties in government, as an intervening factor explaining hypoth esized results of women's legislative presence. Because policy success is not universally or perpetually available to political actors, nor dependent

In addition to avoiding the tautology problem, case selection regard ing critical mass faces a small numbers problem. Several critical repre sentation threshold numbers have been suggested in the literature: 40 per cent (Kanter, 1977); 30 per cent (Dahlerup, 1988, 2006); and 15 per cent (Bystydzienski, 1992: 15).10 A 40 per cent threshold is a theoretically supported standard (see discussion of Kanter, 1977, below), but it is empir ically untestable, given that the range of nations with at least 40 per cent to the Inter female representation is distinctive and small. According

solely on political will, the enactment of women's substantive represen tation will depend, among other factors, upon numbers of women in the governing party, rather than opposition; the type of governing party (for example, left or right, secular or confessional; feminist or anti-feminist); upon additional structural context variables (including the relationship of parliaments to their electoral systems; see Tremblay, 2006); and sup port in civil society. is, Finally, because critical mass ultimately relies on change?that crossing a critical representational threshold, tests of critical mass must be constructed tomeasure movement. Longitudinal tests in several nations will serve to sort through the variety of factors that influence women's policy success, at the same time that they will be complicated by the influence very plethora of factors that can facilitate or impede women's within parties and legislatures.14

III. Numbers-Based Policy Behaviour The

Proportionality

Model

and Women's

foundation for much representation

political

of the critical mass scholarship on women's is Rosabeth Moss Kanter's widely cited 1977

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34 Karen

Beckwith

American Journal of Sociology article on "Some Effects of Proportions on Group Life: Skewed Sex Ratios and Responses to Token Women." In this article, Kanter establishes a numbers-based proportionality model, akin to but distinct from critical mass models. Kanter examines the rela sub tionship between the numbers of members of various sociological on women their and the of relative numbers groups interactions, focusing to numbers ofmen in "a large [Fortune 500] industrial corporation," where few women were employed (1977: 970). Kanter's case focus is helpfully analogous to the case of women in parliaments: like sales firms, national legislatures have "strong cultural traditions and folklore ..., interpersonal skills ... count heavily," and members are responsible to internal (firm/

theory of four levels of proportionality, concerning the ratio of members of dominant groups to token members, and hypoth esizes about the effects of these different proportions. Uniform groups include members of only one group. Skewed groups "are those inwhich there is a large preponderance of one type over another, up to a ratio of perhaps 85 [dominants]: 15 [tokens]" (1977: 966). Tilted groups are those inwhich the group membership ratio is closer to 65 [majority] :35 [minor ratio [approxi ity]; groups become balanced when the "typological mates] 60:40 down to 50:50" (1977: 966). Kanter focuses on skewed groups, arguing that the group balance between dominants and tokens "is one encountered by large numbers of women in groups and organiza tions in which numerical distributions have traditionally favored men" (1977: 966). The "skewed sex ratio" is still the case in many national legislatures,15 and hence Kanter's hypotheses and case discussion appear to be an excellent fit for modeling women's descriptive representation and its substantive effects (1977: 965). Kanter does not use the term "critical mass." She identifies porous thresholds, approximations of "tipping points" (1977: 986; Granovetter, 1978) or borders where, as proportions change, the interactive behaviour of men and women is expected to change as well (1977: 967, Figure 1). In skewed sex groups, where women are tokens, women's visibility and ascribed characteristics serve to identify them as different, causing men as the dominant group to create pressures that shape token women's response. Proportion creates conditions that shape legislators' behaviour. In particular, Kanter anticipates that token status would create "perfor

is, on how men and women interactwithin gendered relationships?that an organization, specific to their self-identification as men and women and to their understandings of masculine and feminine behaviours. Kanter's model is distinctive in that it is a numbers-based model con cerned with proportionality rather than critical mass. She establishes a numbers-based

parliament) and external (customers/constituents) actors, requiring that they "manage relations" (1977: 970-971). Another advantage isKanter's focus on women as a politically relevant subgroup (1977: 968) and on

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Numbers mance

and Newness

35

pressures" on tokens. Women would find it difficult to perform without attracting "public notice," and women's behaviour would be over interpreted as "representational," that is,women would '[carry] the bur den of representing their category" (1977: 973). Kanter also hypothesizes that as token representatives of their category, "as symbols rather than individuals," itwould be "difficult for [women] to generate an alliance that [could] become powerful in the group" (1977: Kanter speculates that tokens would be subject 978) and that token loyalty to dominants would be against their [tokens'] own social category" (1977: 966). to loyalty tests (1977: paired with "turning

prevent them from being

980). The motive for this paired behaviour is the risk, otherwise, of "exclusion from occasions on which informal socialization and political activity take place" (1977: 980). An additional consequence of risking disloyalty could be that tokens' isolation from the dominant group would "exclude them from situations in which important learning about a task is taking place and may also

tions of inequality, where inequalities have political relevance, and where members of under-represented groups share "ascribed characteristics ... that carry with them a set of assumptions about culture, status, and behav iour highly salient formajority category members" (1977: 968). In regard tomen as a dominant group and women as a token group, Kanter theo rizes about the behaviours of members of both groups in interaction, pro viding a theoretical underpinning to her speculations about gender and proportionality that is often missing in discussions of women's descrip tive and substantive political representation that rely on critical mass. Lastly, Kanter's discussion of tokenwomen is also silent on the extent to which women differ among themselves. In regard to the behaviour of token women and their visibility, for example, Kanter ismore concerned with the gendered relationships between male dominants and female tokens than she iswith the relationships among female tokens.16As Dod son observes, "although ithas become almost cliche to acknowledge diver sity, capturing the multiplicity of ways women's gendered preferences and interestsmay be manifested at any given time is difficult using empir ical standards ... that implicitly (if not explicitly) use uniformity of behav iour among women as a standard against which gender's impact is judged" (2001: 15). Elected women may recognize not only their shared gender status but, in a context of tokenism, theymay be sensitive to additional status differences. Elected women may be aware of each other not only as women, or as women of the same (allies) or of a different (opposition)

A final adaptive behaviour of female tokens, Kanter suggests, is that of conservative behaviour and "minimizing change," in part as a response to "role entrapment" (1977: 984). In regard to these hypotheses, Kanter provides a theoretical grounding concerning interactions under condi

(1977: 987).

in a position

to look good

in the organization"

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36 Karen

Beckwith

ical representation, they will need to provide detailed theorizing for hypotheses about policy preferences among and across women in parlia in single legislatures or sev ments; employ a longitudinal methodology eral cross-sectional in multiple parliaments to achieve the analyses proportional variation necessary for testing; hypothesize positive as well as negative policy outcomes; and specify whether the effects are linear
or curvilinear.17

between descriptive and substantive representation of women" (2006: 14). As scholars continue to assess the potential of a proportional or sex ratio numbers-based theory of women's descriptive and substantive polit

party, but also as women with different race, ethnic, religious, and ideo reminds us, "Recognizing logical identities. As Dodson [these differ ... may be a critical ences] step for understanding the imperfect link

IV. Developing

Hypotheses

for Numbers

ofWomen

A gendered theoretical modification of Kanter's work is necessary for testing numbers-based models concerning the presence of elected women in legislatures. Although there are obvious analogies between parlia are similarly male-dominated, ments and large corporations?parliaments women and the numbers of in parliaments remain small?one distinctive difference between national
explicitly partisan nature

legislatures and corporations

Kanter's

is, again,
behav

the

to account for portionality and group behaviour requires modification on women's divisions their the between and partisan impact relationship a I and substantive series of descriptive representation. develop, below, derived from Kanter's that the work, preliminary hypotheses, begin project of sorting out specific impacts of women in token and minority repre sentation in parliaments. Where Women Are Token Representatives What are the possibilities for women's substantive representation when elected women constitute fewer than 15 per cent of parliamentary mem bership, and where at least 85 per cent of the parliament ismale? These might include the following: Where constitute fewer than 15 per cent of a national legisla more likely to support party programmes than will will be ture, they elected men (regardless of party). women

iour study concerns (what appears to be) a homogeneous organization in terms of hierarchy, structure and accountability. In contrast, national leg islatures are organizations highly divided by party. Kanter's model of pro

of parliaments.

organizational

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Numbers

and Newness

37

Where women constitute fewer than 15 per cent of a national legisla ture, theywill be more likely to attractmedia attention (and more neg ative media attention) than will theirmale colleagues. Where women constitute fewer than 15 per cent of a national legisla ture, theywill be less likely to vote against a party line thanwill elected men (regardless of issue). Where women constitute fewer than 15 per cent of a national legisla ture, theywill be less likely to organize a gender-based power alliance within the legislature than in legislatures where women are a minority

(rather than tokens). Where women constitute less than 15 per cent of a national legislature, they will be more conservative in their policy preferences than will elected men (regardless of party).

Where Women Are a Minority Kanter's proportionality model generated hypotheses only for token groups of women, there is little guidance for testing hypotheses where the sex-ratio approaches balance or where group boundaries are crossed. What ismore interesting, especially from the perspective of polit ical change, is how token behaviours are ormight be transformed as num bers of women increase and as the sex-ratio approaches balance. Based on Kanter's work on tokens, several hypotheses might be devel oped for testing the relationship between women's descriptive and sub stantive representation, where numbers of women increase and as male/ female sex-ratios shift from dominant/token (85:15) tomajority/minority (65:35). In conditions where women constitute a minority in parliament, their social isolation, in parliaments and in parliamentary party groups, should decrease. In Kanter's terms, female legislators' presence should become more usual and less "doubly deviant" (1977: 977). Kanter's rea soning suggests the following potential hypotheses:18 Because

Where women constitute a minority of parliamentary members (where men constitute no more than 65 percent), they will be less likely to support party programmes than will their female counterparts in par liaments where elected women are tokens. Where women constitute a minority of parliamentary members, they will be more likely to defy party whips (or vote against party leader ship) than their female counterparts in parliaments where elected women
are tokens.

Where women constitute a minority of parliamentary members, they will be more likely to initiate and to support progressive or radical legislative proposals than their female counterparts in parliaments where elected women are tokens.

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38 Karen

Beckwith

Where women constitute a minority of parliamentary members (between 15 and 35 per cent of a national legislature), women will hold dispro portionately more party and parliamentary leadership positions than would be the case where women constitute only token parliamentary
presence.

Where women constitute a minority of parliamentary members, they will be more likely to organize a gender-based power alliance within the legislature than in legislatures where women are tokens. Although these hypotheses are cast as deterministic, they can also be treated as relative, involving claims of ordinality, in other words, "as the percentage of women in a parliament increases." Rephrased hypoth eses would require longitudinal testing and would still be subject to some

form of threshold consideration. Furthermore, Studlar and McAllister argue that hypotheses linking women's numerical presence in parlia ments to substantive representation should posit an accelerating impact of women's increased descriptive representation, rather than simply an incremental influence (2002: 238).

V. Newness,

Uncertainty,

and Unpredictability

One element of Kanter's work on the effects of sex-ratios has attracted little notice and less testing: the concept of "newness" (see, however, Cowley and Childs, 2001). Kanter identifies two "conditions that heighten and dramatize the effects" of tokenism: the physical visibility of tokens (for example, sex, race, age) and the situation inwhich "the token's social type is not only rare but also new to the setting of the dominants" (1977: 969). She suggests that the "surprise value" of tokens, likely to diminish across time, is a factor that could permit "us to see the development of patterns of adjustment as well as the perception of and response to tokens" (1977: 969). Kanter does not, however, operationalize newness and pro vides little discussion of it, focusing primarily on women's "rarity" (1977: 969 n2). By newness, I mean a substantial increase in the number and pro should have an portion of women elected for the first time.19 Newness as success within have in impact political parties, parties increasing the number of women they elect to parliaments, and within parliaments them selves. That is, the response of women and men to newness can be expected to occur within parties specifically and within parliaments

generally. Newness of female representatives should affect both women and men in parliaments. As the number of women in parliament shifts,with newness, from token tominority status, formerly token women will now is likely to require find themselves part of an enhanced minority. Newness

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Numbers

and Newness

39

adjustment by all parliamentary actors: by women newly elected, by women already serving in a national legislature, and by male legislators. If women are newly elected and there are many of them, they may be positioned as more numerous than incumbent women and as a sizeable minority of new legislators (including men). It is reasonable to expect that a large number of new female legislators will require accommoda tion by male legislators, and by incumbents, including incumbent women.

(See Table 1 for the percentages of new women relative to incumbent women in their party delegations.) Newness as well as numbers of elected women varies across time in national parliaments. In the United States, for example, the opportunity for "newness" occurs biannually, and hence the potentially disruptive impact of newly elected female tokens orminorities is frequent. The actual occasions of newness, however, are moderated by the strong incumbency effects of the US Congress. In Britain, in contrast, parliamentary elec tions may be as infrequent as every five years, providing a longer period of adjustment, adaptation and incorporation of newly elected women into the Commons. Party discipline and party candidate selection rules, how ever, may have a strong impact on the practical newness of elected MPs.

Any consideration of the impact of newness and numbers of elected women upon women's substantive representation will have to take into account the cross-time variation of these factors, the potentially cumula tive continuing impact of newness within specific legislatures, the fre quency opportunities of newness, and how those play out within political Although the trajectory of elected women inmany legislatures fol lows a pattern of incremental increase (this is the case in the US, see Table 2), the percentage of newly elected women may be more likely to demonstrate a pattern of spike and decline (see, for the US, Table 1). Dramatic increases in the number of women and of women newly elected are likely to have an impact on internal legislative behaviours and arrange ments, which themselves are likely to affect the chances for women's substantive representation in parliaments. Kanter suggests that the reaction from dominants (where women are tokens) and frommajorities (where women constitute a substantial minor ity) toward women may be negative, punitive and divisive. Women's small numbers and status as new arrivals are likely tomake itdifficult for them to assume office and to undertake legislative work without attracting pub lic notice. For example, the large numbers of women, overwhelmingly Labour Party candidates, elected to theHouse of Commons in 1997, about half of whom were new members, attracted extensive media attention. Categorized by the media by the disparaging moniker "Blair's Babes" (see Norris and Lovenduski, 2001: 2), the new Labour women were tar gets of substantial attention and criticism, including from other Labour
parties.20

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40 Karen Table 1 Newly Elected

Beckwith

Number and Percentage ofWomen of Representatives, 1990-2004_

Year New Women* 21.4% 1990 New Democrats** 17.9%

to the US House

New Republicans*** _K6% 6\4%

All Women****

26.3%
48.9% 1992 42.6%

(5) (6)

11.1%

(1) (28)

(23) (20)
57.1% 25.0% 1994 10.4%

15.0% 10.8% 25.0%

(3) (47)

14.6% 11.0%

(12) (5)
16.1% 22.2% 1996 16.7% 24.3% 17.9% 1998 5.6%

(7) (48)
41.2% 12.4%

(9) (12) (10) (7)

17.6% 12.9% 5.4% 17.6% 5.0% 13.6

(3) (54)

12.5% 17.9%

(3) (56) (59) (3)

11.7% 2000

6.7%

9.8%
2002 13.3% 5.0% 7.7% 14.9% 2004 9.0% 14.0% Source: 8.3%

(7) (4)

16.7%
13.8% 23.8%

(3) (8)

(5) (60)

6.0% 15.4% 16.7%

(10) (6)

(4) (67)

"Women

**First percentage is calculated as number of new Democratic women/number of all women elected; second is number of new Democratic women/number of all Democratic women. ***First percentage is calculated as number of new Republican women/number of all women elected; second is number of new Republican women/number of all Republican women. is calculated as number of all women/number of all House seats. ****Percentage

Foerstel, 1999; Nutting and Stern, 2001; "Women Serving in the 107th Congress"; in the US House of Representatives 2006"; "Women in theUS Congress 2006". Percentage is calculated as number of all women newly elected/number of all women elected.

MPs

(Lovenduski, 2005). Cowley and Childs (2001: 1) report Brian and Sedgemore's reference to new Labour women as "Stepford Wives" Ann Widdecombe's protest that "the comparison was an insult to the Step fordWives" (Cowley and Childs, 2001: 19 n3).
Kanter's work

bined with "token status" provoke responses from dominants that shape distinctive behaviours among tokens. In regard to women's descriptive

suggests

that,

for

token

group,

"newness"

com

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Numbers Table 2

and Newness

41

Number and Percentage ofWomen Elected to theUS House of Representatives, by Party, 1974 to 2004_
Year Republican Women* Democratic Women** Total

1974
1976

3~5% 4^8%4A% (5) (14) (19)

3.5% 4.5% 4.1%

(5) (13) (18) 1978 1980

1982

3.2% 4.0% 3.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% (10) (11) (21)

5.4% 4.9% 4.6%

(5) (11) (16)

(9) (13) (22)

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
1994

4.9% 5.1%5.1% (11) (12) (23) 6.2% 4.7%5.3% (11) (12) (23) 6.3% 5.4%6.7% (13) (16) (29) 5.4% 7.1% 6.4%

(9) (19) (28)

6.8% 14.0% 10.8% (12) (35) (47)

7.4% 15.2% 11.0%

(17) (31) (48)

1996 7.0% 16.9% 12.4%

(17) (37) (54)

1998 7.6% 18.5% 12.9%

(17) (39) (56)

2000 8.1% 19.8%* 13.8%***

(18) 2002 2004

Source: "Women in the U.S.

(42) (60)

9.2% 19.0% 13.8% (21) (39) (60) 10.4% 21.5% 15.4% (24) (43) (67)
is calculated "Women in the US Congress 2006." 1917-2001," Congress, as number of Republican women elected/number of all Republicans. is calculated as number of Democratic women elected/number of all Democrats. (D-HI), who died in 2002.

*Percentage

**Percentage ***lncludes Patsy Takemoto Mink

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42 Karen

Beckwith

and substantive representation, both numbers and newness could there fore be expected to produce distinctive legislative behaviours among newly elected women. With specific regard to policy behaviour, newly elected women may be more likely to support party programmes, less likely to defy party whips (or vote against party leadership), and less likely to ini tiate and to support progressive or radical legislative proposals than are party incumbents, male or female. Concerning Newness

Hypotheses

Kanter's work suggests that, for a token group, newness combined with token status provokes responses from dominants that shape distinctive behaviours among tokens. In regard towomen's descriptive and substan tive representation, both numbers and newness could therefore be expected to intersect to produce elected women. Among Where

distinctive legislative behaviours among newly testable hypotheses are the following:

Where

newly elected women constitute a minority of women of their party parliamentary group, theywill be less likely to defy party whips (or vote against party leadership) than their incumbent female counter parts. They will also be less likely to defy party whips than will party newly elected women constitute a minority of women in their party parliamentary group, they will be less likely to initiate and to support progressive or radical legislative proposals than their incum bent female counterparts. They will also be less likely to support rad ical legislation than will party incumbents, male or female.
incumbents, male or female.

newly elected women constitute a minority of women in their party parliamentary group, they will be more likely to support party programmes than will their incumbent female counterparts. They will also be more likely to support party programmes thanwill party incum bents, male or female.

Where

women

These hypotheses address newness in parliament by party. There is some evidence of support for some of these hypotheses. Debra Dodson (2006) found evidence of differences in the policy behaviours of women newly elected to the US House, although these behaviours also varied across Congresses.21 Other research has found that, among women in rd the 103 and 104th Congresses, only incumbent women were willing to defy party directives to vote for the Family and Medical Leave Act (1993) and against the Personal Responsibility andWork Opportunity Act (1996); they were also more likely to act independently in supporting women friendlypositions on these bills thanwere incumbent men or newly elected (Beckwith, 2006). Cowley and Childs' work, for example, sug that female Labour MPs, elected for the first time in 1997, behaved gests

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Numbers

and Newness

43

differently from other new MPs (that is, incumbent female MPs).

(that is, men) and from other women In short, newly elected women "do pol itics differently" (Cowley and Childs, 2001: 17; see also Childs, 2001).22 In "doing politics differently," however, the difference may not be attributable to a critical mass threshold or a shift in proportion of female tomale legislators. I argue that the difference may be the product of the intersection of numbers and newness, in party and parliamentary context.

VI. Conclusion What impact does the product of numbers and newness have upon pos women's "rar sibilities for substantive representation? Kanter suggests that men from in and learning organizations where ity" requires adjustment by men are dominant and that as women become a fixity in an organization, men will learn to accommodate them. That is,Kanter sees rarity or new

ness as an aggregate characteristic of organizations. I suggest, instead, thatnewness be seen as both a feature of newly elected individual women, who must learn the institutional structures, norms and folkways of legis latures, and as a feature of the response of incumbents, both male and female, in socializing and adapting to numbers of newly elected women there within their party and within the larger legislature. "Newness," a of uncertainties and is characterized fore, range by unpredictabilities: uncertainties among newly elected women about their capacity for legis

lative influence and uncertainties among incumbents about the (not yet) predictable (in party and parliamentary terms) behaviour of the newly elected.
Newness also occurs in a newly elected legislature and, hence, addi

tional uncertainties and unpredictabilities may obtain. A governing party may have lost a parliamentary election and an opposition party may come to power in the new parliament; a governing party may have increased to its electoral advantage and find itself more favourably positioned advance its policies; an opposition party may have increased its parlia mentary presence, strengthening its capacity to influence government pol icy. In each of these cases, within specific parliaments and within specific parties positioned as government or opposition, numbers of newly elected

women will experience positive and negative opportunities for construct ing cross-party alliances among women, for strengthening their own party ties, and for acting independently in policy making. Studlar and McAllister (2002) suggest that, for political women to have a legislative impact, they need to be representatives of a conducive party and they need to be able to "work" the party; that is, to persuade party leadership and male colleagues of the virtues of supporting poli cies that provide substantive representation forwomen. Elected women's

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44 Karen

Beckwith

elected women, substantial increases in numbers of women in parlia ments will of necessity depend upon newness. In a study of women's election to lower chambers of 13West European parliaments, R. Darcy and Karen Beckwith (1991) found that women were more likely to be elected in large numbers when a party previously in opposition became

opportunities for such influence should be enhanced when the number of women is high. Because major political loss for a governing party oftenmeans major political victories forwomen of the opposition, or a high number of newly

dim, male candidates may be more difficult to recruit. In such circum stances, a party "may find it difficult to identify new male candidates, providing additional opportunities for the nomination of women" (Darcy and Beckwith, 1991: 5). Finally, a defeated party may misestimate or

the governing party. They reasoned that a previous electoral defeat may create three potential opportunities for female candidates. First, major electoral losses for a party remove its incumbents from parliament, some times permanently, opening candidacy opportunities for women in the next election.23 Second, when a party has lost and its prospects appear

with

underestimate its chances of victory in succeeding elections. "Under con ditions where a party does better than originally anticipated, it may find itself electing many women who were nominated on the assumption that the party would lose" (Darcy and Beckwith, 1991: 5). Darcy and Beck (1991: 3) concluded
and winning

thatwomen's
seats "are

chances of gaining nominations

in electoral contests where

there is a substantial shift in party competition" and that "increases in women's electoral representation [are likely to be] incremental and
distinct."

to parliaments

greatest

experience necessary to mobilize quickly for women-friendly legisla tion. They are also more likely to lack the experience and party position necessary to resist any of their party's directives thatmight undermine women-friendly public policy (see Lovenduski, 2005 on Britain; for the US, Beckwith, 2006; Dodson, 2006; Mink, 2002; see also Katzenstein, 2003). The intersection of numbers and newness creates an irony: the moments in which parties elect large numbers of women are the same moments when parties enjoy new majority and governing status; hence positive opportunities forwomen's increased numerical representation may be paired with negative opportunities forwomen's policy successes. The very factors that enhance women's descriptive representation may be those

Darcy and Beckwith's research implies that large numbers of elected women necessarily intersect with newness, or women's newly elected status?a status which may diminish the capacity of women to translate their increased numbers into women-friendly legislation. If substantial numbers of women are newly elected, in a party that has become the governing party, those women are more likely to lack the parliamentary

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Numbers

and Newness

45

that undermine women's ability to promote women's substantive repre sentation. These possibilities suggest further that a focus on the intersec tion of numbers and newness, rather than on critical mass or a threshold proportion, offers the greater utility for understanding the relationship

have its least positive policy impacts, in terms of women-friendly legis lation and women's substantive representation, when newly elected women lack necessary experience and supportive party, movement and institu tional context. Newly elected women, however, can become incumbents, with re-election, and they can have an impact upon theirmale colleagues

between women's descriptive and substantive representation. A final conclusion concerns the ultimately gendered nature of the intersection of numbers and newness. Newness, a substantial increase in the numbers and proportions of women elected for the first time, may

and, potentially, upon institutional norms and practices. The interactions and iterations of newly elected women and incumbency imply cross institutional integration and their positioning time analysis of women's for women's substantive representation. Where parties and parliaments experience a substantial increase in the numbers and proportions of elected women, women's newness functions to underscore interaction between elected women and men, revealing their actual and potential institutional influence and power, and foregrounding the gendered nature of legisla tive politics and the possibilities forwomen's substantive representation.

Notes
1 2 The has This number increased of women and percentage in every Congress since elected 1978. to the US House of Representatives

3 4

Childs

and Krook identify critical mass as "the magic number where female legisla tors are said to be able tomake a difference" (2006: 522). and Cowell-Meyers, See, however, Beckwith 2003; Childs and Krook, 2005; Childs and Withey, 2006; Cowell-Meyers, 2001; and Crowley, 2004, among others, whose research

attention to numbers is reflected politically and theoretically in scholarship on the gender gap, where the large number of voting women and the increasing propor tion that voting women constitute in the overall electorate have potential election outcome determining consequences.

The

in parliament in a hypothesized linked to changes specifically What process is put inmotion by the increase that then causes sion in section III of this article. 6 See, for example, Duverger, 1955; Norris, 1985.

..." This rewording is not strictly a "critical mass" hypothesis, however, but one that tests the effects of increasing numbers of female legislators. In addition, the problem of conceptual clarity remains unsolved. How is an increase in the percentage of women dependent change? variable? See discus

this general agreement. challenges as a lack of conceptual clarity is not easily resolved by treating critical mass relative concept, deriving from organizational behaviour models, with research hypoth eses worded: "As the percentage of women elected to a legislature increases, then

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46 Karen
7 In the United

Beckwith

women

are more women

women have constituted themajority of elected House States, Democratic in the past 25 years. By 2000, there were nearly three times as many Demo women elected to the House. Kathleen Dolan cratic as Republican reports that "there Democratic are more successful women than Republican seeking office, Democratic women in primaries and general elec than Republican mem women make up a greater proportion of the Democratic women

tions, and Democratic women than Republican bers of Congress this partisan disproportion, Beyond base" of women of Democratic almost might women

make up of their party's total" (2006: 30). the extent to which selection of the "mass

107th Congress 4 per cent of the entire House to the House need in 2000. Given

skew policy results emerges when one considers the presence a powerful subset of House women. In the from California, women from California, 17members were Democratic (2001-2003), membership the numerical and 29.3 per cent of all women presence and policy distinctive in the of a mass base of "all women"

elected

ness of the California 107th Congress 8 Dodson

its potential policy influence. of lib this when she writes: "Although the dominance (2002: 16) addresses in historically masculine erals is no assurance of feminist success institutions, to the is greater among liberals than extent thatmen's support for feminist policy objectives a shift to the right has the potential to make feminist policy goals a sell and to reduce the level of influence feminist activists have in rais

calculations delegation, to account for this subset and

conservatives, more difficult 9

ing participant awareness of conditions, problems, and solutions." Note in this article, focusing that Dahlerup does not endorse a critical mass model the limitations of instead on "critical acts" (1988, 2006). Bystydzienski recognizes case (1992: 22). generalizing from the Norwegian Based 2002. range of thresholds, see Studlar and McAllister, on data for 172 countries, for the lower chamber of parliament for the most recent elections. See "Women inNational 2006. Parliaments," These include Belgium (just under a strict 35% threshold at 34.7%, 2003) Denmark For the extensive (36.9%, (37.9%, 2005), Finland 2005). The

10 11 12

13

the Netherlands (36.7%, 2003) and Norway (37.5%, 2003), ten include Costa Rica (38.6% 2006), Cuba (36.0%, 2003), Spain (34%, 2004). (35.0%, 2005) and Mozambique (36.0%, 2004), Argentina These are Austria (30.5%, 2005), Germany (31.8%, 2005), (33.9%, 2002), Burundi Guyana Africa (30.8%, (32.8%, 2001), 2004) Iceland (33.3%, 2003), New Zealand (32.2%, 2005), South and Tanzania (30.4%, 2005). in the legislature, the shift from governance the party balance (left v. right), among others (see

14

These

include, again, to opposition, and the type of party in government 2006). that have women

15

2006; Grey, Dodson, Of the 172 countries

in the lower houses of their national legisla constitute at least 15 per cent of the tures, 83 exceed skewed status (that is, women lists the "world average" The Inter-Parliamentary Union lower house membership). as 16.6 per cent, and 16.8 per in parliaments of women's numerical representation cent for lower houses inNational Parliaments," 2006). ("Women is lim relationships between token women, although the discussion on num two token women, ited and emphasizes the interactions between focusing discusses (1977:

16

Kanter

17

mental influence(linear) (2002: 238).

18 These

979, 982-983, 987). in numerical presence linking women's to substantive should posit an accelerating impact of parliaments representation women's increased descriptive representation (curvilinear), rather than simply an incre set of hypotheses, not only in their focus hypotheses differ from the previous of upon minority rather than token representation of women, but in their comparison and dominant men. This sec token women rather than comparing groups of women ond set of hypotheses is crafted to assess the substantive impact of the descriptive

differences bers rather than other categorical Studlar and McAllister argue that hypotheses

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Numbers

and Newness

47

19

Here

newness I operationalize in regard to women. Newness could also specifically in regard to any politically relevant subgroup entering parliament be operationalized for the first time. Kanter reflects briefly on newness (1977: 969 n2), for example, and rarity in regard to black men. to nomination and include attentiveness political parties, this would as well as recruitment patterns (e.g., Norris and Lovenduski, tion practices, turnover suggests that women literature on women's have 1993). The modest selec

in the legislature. The constitute a minority representation of women where women is thatmore women (an increase in descrip underlying assumption of these hypotheses tive representation) should predict more gender-distinctive and policy preferences and within parties. differences within parliaments greater male/female

20

Within

1995; lower

incumbency rates than men, raising additional of newness (Andersen andThorson, 1984; Darcy 21

Democrats?had

"Five of the [23] newly elected women in the House?all con in the Democratically provision sponsored at least one WHEA trolled 103 rd; yet not one component of the 104th's WHEA of 1996 was sponsored woman" 2006: 193, n8; see (Dodson, by a freshman or even sophomore Republican In the 103rd Congress, also 101-4). For a more detailed decisions in the US newly elected women upon policy see Beckwith, of Commons, 2002. politics; his or her party may also for subsequent campaigns.

2005;Welch and Studlar,1996).

about the potential impact questions and Choike, 1986; Palmer and Simon,

22 23

discussion of the impact of and the UK House Congress to leave An unsuccessful incumbent may decide fail to renominate or reselect a failed incumbent

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