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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

24 JUNE 29 JUNE 2013

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold suffered further setback and plunged below Rs 27,000 per 10 gm mark at the local bullion market today on heavy speculative selling on the back of overnight global commodity meltdown. Gold drifted flat on Friday as Wall Street witnessed weakness for the third consecutive day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernankes hints towards ending of monetary stimulus earlier than expected. Spot gold drifted around $ 1292 an ounce on Friday about half a percentage up from its previous close. Gold touched lowest levels since 2010 on Thursday. The recovery in prices was mainly on account of the positive sentiment for a spurt in purchases at the bottom levels. Globally, the yellow metal crashed below the USD 1,300 an ounce mark on the back of panic liquidation from hedge funds and investors pressured by US central bank's decision to curtail its bullion-friendly bond buying programme earlier- than-expected. Natural gas price carried Thursday's losses into Friday after official data revealed the stockpiles in the U.S. rose more than expected last week. In the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in July traded at USD3.785 per million British thermal units, down 2.39%.The commodity hit a session low of USD3.767 and a high of USD3.904. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Thursday that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 14 rose by 91 billion cubic feet, above market expectations for an increase of 90 billion. Inventories rose by 63 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a rise of 80 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.438 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 559 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 47 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 2.485 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Supply losses, tight scrap situation, improving Chinese demand, depleting bonded stocks and rumours of SRB buying; all these positive factors have failed to take copper prices beyond the $7500/ton mark on LME. Copper dominated by construction and infrastructure spending may be seeing a shift to permanently slower demand growth, the report said. This should be contrasted with Aluminum demand which is growing in excess of 10% per annum, way ahead of economic growth in various nations. Now, with supplies expected to climb in the second half of this year, and Chinese demand prospects weakening, there is further downside in store for copper prices in Q4, 2013. LME open interest for all the metals have been rising including copper and in the context of price declines, this means, many a commodity investors made it a point to short copper. Also, the arbitrage window of copper pertaining to SHFE/LME has been open for a month; this is the longest time frame it has been in since the end of 2011.

Gold drifts flat in US: Analysts eye bubble burst ahead.

Natural gas extends losses on rising U.S. inventory levels.

Copper witnessing a shift to permanently slower demand growth.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
June 25, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm June 26, 2:30am 6:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm June 27, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 8:00pm June 28, 5:30pm 7:15pm 7:25pm 7:25pm

DESCRIPTION
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y HPI m/m CB Consumer Confidence New Home Sales Richmond Manufacturing Index Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Final GDP q/q Final GDP Price Index q/q Crude Oil Inventories Unemployment Claims Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Personal Income m/m Pending Home Sales m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks FOMC Member Powell Speaks Natural Gas Storage FOMC Member Stein Speaks Chicago PMI Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

FORECAST
-0.1% 3.0% 10.6% 1.2% 75.6 462K 0

PREVIOUS
1.5% 3.5% 10.9% 1.3% 76.2 454K -2

2.4% 1.1%

2.4% 1.1% 0.3M

351K 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1%

354K 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.3%

91B

55.2 83.1

58.7 82.7 3.2%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement and broke upward channel pattern on lower side and took support of 50.0% retracement and gave closing above it. Now if it sustain below 26800 then next support level is seen around 26450. On other hand, 27200 will act as resistance for it above this it may test next resistance level i.e. 27600.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 27200 for the targets of 2760028200 with stop loss of 26700.

S1
26540

S2
25900

S3
25270

R1
27400

R2
28000

R3
28500

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed downward movement and gave breakout of symmetrical triangle pattern on lower side and took support of 3 years new low but unable to sustain on lower levels. Now, 40650 will act as support for it, below this it may drag towards new lows. On other hand some correction may lead it towards the resistance level of 42450.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 40650 for target of 39000, with stop loss of 42250.

PIVOT TABLE S1
40650

S2
39000

S3
37500

R1
42450

R2
44250

R3
45850

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on daily charts took resistance of upper band of upward channel pattern but unable to sustain on higher levels and closed around 23.6% retracement. Now, if it breaks the support of 5560 then next support level is seen around lower band of channel i.e. 5450 below this bearishness will expected. On contrary any revesal will find resistance of 5725.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 5560 for the targets of 5420-5380 with stop loss of 5725.

PIVOT TABLE S1
5560

S2
5380

S3
5235

R1
5715

R2
5840

R3
5950

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish to sideways movement and moved in downward channel pattern but unable to closed below 38.2% retracement. Now, if it sustain below 403.50 then next support seen around 396.50. On higher side above 413 breakout of channel pattern will expected and it may show northward movements toward the next resistance level of 421.50.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be buy above 413, with stop loss of 400 for the targets of 421-432.

S1
400

S2
392

S3
383

R1
413

R2
422

R3
431

DISCLAIMER

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