Journal of Hydrology 304 (2005) 193202 www.elsevier.

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A phosphorus budget for Northern Ireland: inputs to inland and coastal waters
R.V. Smitha,*, C. Jordana, J.A. Annettb
Agriculture, Food and Environmental Science Division, Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Newforge Lane, Belfast, BT9 5PX, UK b Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, School of Agriculture and Food Science, The Queens University of Belfast, Newforge Lane, Belfast, BT9 5PX, UK Received 30 November 2003; revised 1 May 2004; accepted 1 July 2004
a

Abstract The European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (200/60/EC) requires Member States to restore all surface waters to good ecological status by 2015. There is growing recognition that phosphorus (P) is the key nutrient in controlling the degree of eutrophication of inland waters. Recent increases in the diffuse P enrichment of surface waters from Northern Ireland agriculture, operating at a P surplus of 14.8 kg haK1 yearK1 have nullied the impacts of programmes to reduce P from point sources. The aim of the present study was to identify an overall P budget for the inland and coastal waters of Northern Ireland and to apportion the total to diffuse and point sources. To calculate the diffuse agricultural contribution, export coefcients were used. These had been derived for total P previously by multiple regression analysis for a number of CORINE land cover classes. A GIS was employed to estimate total P losses for these land use types for the whole land cover of Northern Ireland. By this method it was determined that 1130 tonnes of total P are exported from agricultural land to inland and coastal waters. In addition there are other diffuse contributions from urban streets and surfaces, moorland, forests and peat bogs, which total 165 tonnes of total P. The human contribution to the overall P budget was divided into mains-sewered households (945 tonnes), households connected to septic tanks (118 tonnes) and industrial discharges (40 tonnes). Overall agriculture contributes some 48% of all P exports to inland and coastal waters. As a disproportionate amount of the efuent from waste water treatment works discharges directly to sea or estuary, the agricultural contribution to inland waters is increased to 58%. q 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Export coefcients; Phosphorus; Budgets; Point source; Diffuse source; Eutrophication

1. Introduction The European Unions (EU) Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC) requires the integrated management of water resources at the catchment level throughout the EU from 2002 onwards. The target of the legislation is to restore all surface waters

* Corresponding author. Tel.: C44 2890 255514; fax: C44 2890 662007. E-mail address: roger.smith@dardni.gov.uk (R.V. Smith). 0022-1694/$ - see front matter q 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.004

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to good ecological status by 2015. The integrated management of water resources implies that there is a need to quantify the relative importance of point and diffuse sources of pollutants in catchments. There is growing evidence that diffuse losses of phosphorus (P) from agricultural land to surface waters in Europe and the USA have been increasing in recent years (Sharpley and Rekolainen, 1997) and that P is the key nutrient controlling the degree of eutrophication of rivers, lakes and impounding reservoirs in both the USA (USEPA, 1996) and Europe (Foy and Bailey-Watts, 1998). Eutrophication is dened by the Environment Agency of England and Wales as the enrichment of waters by inorganic plant nutrients which results in the stimulation of an array of symptomatic changes. These include the increased production of algae and/or other aquatic plants affecting the quality of the water and disturbing the balance of organisms present within it (Environment Agency, 1998). Current knowledge of nutrient enrichment in Northern Ireland indicates that both Lough Neagh and Lough Erne together with many other lakes and rivers are eutrophic (Environment and Heritage Service, 1999). Recent increases in diffuse P enrichment of surface waters in Northern Ireland, arising from agriculture operating at a P surplus of 16.5 kg haK1yearK1 (Foy et al., 2002) have nullied the impacts of P reduction from some point sources. To reduce P losses to surface waters effectively, the important sources must be identied and their P losses quantied. Point sources can be directly measured, however diffuse sources present a different challenge because they are difcult to measure and vary greatly according to catchment characteristics and farming practices. The application of export coefcient modelling offers a relatively simple method for deriving an estimate of average annual diffuse loads within large, diverse catchments (Heidtke and Auer, 1993). Export coefcients (expressed as kg haK1 yearK1) are calculated for spatially distributed catchment characteristics, most commonly different land use types. This approach was originally developed in North America and adopted by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to predict nutrient loadings to standing waters (Ornerwick, 1976; OECD, 1982; Beaulac and Reckow, 1982). Export coefcient modelling has more recently been used by the former National Rivers Authority of England and Wales

(NRA) (Johnes et al., 1994) and the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) (Ferrier et al., 1996) to classify the nutrient status of lakes in England and Wales, and Scotland, respectively. Johnes (1996) has also used export coefcients to accurately predict TP loadings from a number of river catchments in England, in some cases, to within 0.5% of observed loads. In the present study export coefcients that have mostly been derived from multiple regression of annual loadings of P from Northern Ireland catchments against CORINE land cover classes (McGuckin et al., 1999; McGuckin, 2000) are used to predict P losses for all land use types. Human contributions are based on per capita values derived from direct measurements at point sources.

2. Study area The total area of Northern Ireland is 14,120 km2 of which 640 km2 is ascribed to inland waters predominantly Loughs Neagh and Erne (Fig. 1). The Province has a long term (19611990) mean daily air temperature of 8.7 8C with a mean daily maximum of 18.5 8C and a mean daily minimum of 5.8 8C. The mean annual rainfall is 1113 mm with a mean annual potential evaporation loss of 384 mm (Betts, 1997). Since agriculture accounts for about 80% of the total land area of Northern Ireland and this is dominated by grassland (72%) and rough grazing (18%) with only 6% under crops and 1% in woodland, the dominant land cover class in most river and lake catchments is pasture of one form or another. The principal soil associations are climatic peat above 200 m (14%), with acid brown earths (13%) and clays (56%) on the lowland. The geology of the area is described by Wilson (1972), and the soils and their hydrological characteristics are described in detail by Cruickshank (1997). Most of the agricultural land to the east of Northern Ireland is tile drained whereas the west has gravel-lled mole drains.

3. Databases 3.1. CORINE database The Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) project was set up by the EU to

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Fig. 1. Map of Northern Ireland (Crown Copyright).

establish an information system on the state of the environment in Europe by coordinating existing environmental databases. In 1991, the project was extended to land cover and the project set out to compile a common, Europe-wide land cover database in Arc Info format from satellite imagery. The database for Ireland is derived from 1989/1990 LANDSAT Thermatic Mapper images of Ireland at a scale of 1:100,000 (Cruickshank and Tomlinson, 1996). The minimum area classied within the CORINE methodology is 25 ha. The CORINE land cover classication scheme (Table 1) was designed to encompass the diverse land cover of the EU countries and their neighbours in eastern Europe and North Africa. The CORINE classication is heirarchical with land cover classied into a number of levels. Five broad classes are dened at Level 1 i.e. articial surfaces, agricultural areas, forest and semi-natural areas, wetlands and waterbodies. These broad classes are then sub-divided to give a total of 15 sub-classes at Level 2 and 44 at Level 3. Only 33 of the Level 3

classes apply to Northern Ireland. Inadequacies in the classication for particular countries could be remedied by subdividing classes to Level 4. This subdivision was used for the Level 3 classes pasture (2.3.1) and peat bogs (4.1.2) in Ireland as both these classes were regarded as being too broad for this country. Given the extent of pasture in Ireland, much Northern Irish agricultural land would have been attributed to a single class. The Level 4 classication divided pasture into 3 classes-good (2.3.1.1), poor (2.3.1.2) and mixed (2.3.1.3) pasture. Similarly, it was necessary to divide the peat bog class in Ireland into 2 classes at Level 4-unexploited (4.1.2.1) and exploited (4.1.2.2) bog.

4. Materials and methods 4.1. GIS ArcView V3.2a software, complete with the Spatial Analyst V2.0a software extension, running

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Table 1 Export of total phosphorus to Northern Ireland surface waters from different CORINE land cover classes together with 95% condence limits for export coefcients Corine land cover class and name 1.1.1. 1.1.2. 1.2.1. 1.2.2. 1.2.3. 1.2.4. 1.3.1. 1.3.2. 1.4.1. 1.4.2. 2.1.1. 2.3.1.1 2.3.1.2 2.3.1.3 2.4.1. 2.4.2. 2.4.3. Continuous urban fabrica Discontinuous urban fabrica Industrial or commercial unitsa Road and rail networks and associated land Sea portsa Airportsa Mineral extraction sitea Dumpa Green urban areas Sport and leisure facilitiesa Non-irrigated arable land Good pasture Poor pasture Mixed pasture Annual crops assoc with permanent crops Complex cultivation patterns Land principally occupied by agriculture with signicant areas of natural vegetation. Broadleaved forestb Coniferous forest Mixed forestb Natural grassland Moor and heathlandsb Transitional woodland/scrubb Inland marshes Unexploited peat bogs Exploited peat bogs Export coefcient (kg P haK1 yearK1) 1.20G0.90 1.20G0.90 2.50G1.60 1.20G0.90 2.50G1.60 2.50G1.60 2.50G1.60 2.50G1.60 0.83G0.17 1.20G0.90 4.88G1.12 0.83G0.17 0.65G0.25 0.78G0.12 0.83G0.17 2.33G0.27 0.49G0.11 Land area (km2) 54 308 36 7 2 12 25 3 9 42 321 4277 721 2626 64 1435 617 Total P export (tonnes P yearK1) 6.5 37.0 9.0 0.8 0.5 3.0 6.3 0.8 0.7 5.0 156.6 355.0 46.9 203.5 5.3 333.6 30.2

3.1.1. 3.1.2. 3.1.3. 3.2.1. 3.2.2. 3.2.4. 4.1.1. 4.1.2.1. 4.1.2.2. Total export to water
a b

0.26G0.14 0.36G0.04 0.26G0.15 0.65G0.25 0.13G0.07 0.26G0.14 0.23G0.17 0.23G0.17 0.23G0.17

84 522 27 545 299 128 19 1286 34

2.1 18.8 0.7 35.4 3.7 3.3 0.4 29.6 0.8 1295

PLUARG, 1978. Ferrier et al., 1996.

on an Intel PC was used for all GIS work (ESRI, 1999). This software allowed the integration and analysis of vector and raster data formats. 4.2. Diffuse P loads Total P export coefcients were determined for each land cover class represented in 50 experimental sub-catchments of the rivers Colebrooke and Upper Bann. These catchments were selected for intensive study as, together, they are broadly representative of land cover in N. Ireland. Export coefcients of soluble reactive P, particulate P and soluble unreactive P (kg haK1yearK1) for each land cover class were

derived separately by multiple regression of the 1990 annual P loads, expressed in kilograms, and the areas of the CORINE land cover classes in each sub-catchment (McGuckin, 2000). The export coefcients for total P were calculated as the sum of these P fractions. For land cover classes not represented in the experimental catchments, published export coefcients were used (Table 1). These were from two sources: PLUARG (1978); Ferrier et al. (1996). The PLUARG (1978) export coefcients were derived from Canadian data and are for urban runoff that makes a relatively small contribution to the overall total P budget. The Ferrier et al. (1996) export coefcients are derived from Scottish data and are for

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non-agricultural land use classes. The P loads to surface waters for each land cover class in Northern Ireland are the product of its export coefcient and its total land area (Table 1). Diffuse P loads exported from individual river catchments are predicted from the land cover statistics for each catchment using the equation: X P LOAD Z LAND COVER AREA (1) ! P K COEFFICIENT where P LOAD is in kg P yearK1 and LAND COVER AREA and P-COEFFICIENT are expressed in ha and kg P haK1yearK1, respectively. 4.3. Urban population load The number of persons connected to sewers in Northern Ireland (urban population) was calculated from the 1991 Population Census (DHSS, 1992) This database holds, amongst other data, records of the number of households and persons connected to mains sewage systems in each 1 km2 across Northern Ireland (DHSS, 1992). By overlaying catchment boundaries on these data within the GIS, the number of persons sewered and unsewered in a catchment can be calculated. The total annual urban load was calculated as the product of urban population and a per capita value of 0.766 kg total P personK1 yearK1 (2.1 g P personK1 dayK1). The latter was derived from intensive surveys of domestic efuent measured prior to sewage treatment from an urban population of 141,000 in Northern Ireland (Gray, 1984). This study estimated that 0.84 kg total P personK1 yearK1 was the domestic contribution but sewage treatment removes 10% of the P input through precipitation (Storey, 1990). Support for the use of a per capita of this magnitude comes from Foy et al. (1995) who predicted a per capita of 0.92 g of total P personK1 yearK1 based on the sum of dietary, detergent and dishwasher contributions of 0.44, 0.39 and 0.09 g total P personK1 yearK1, respectively. 4.4. Rural population load The rural population of Northern Ireland is dependent on septic tanks, but their connectivity to

surface waters is uncertain, some utilising soil soakaways, others discharging directly to streams and drains and many combining both. In the absence of direct measurements the only available evidence of the proportion of human efuents from septic tanks that reaches surface waters is a study by Smith (1977). This study employed linear regression models and showed that the ratio of urban to rural soluble reactive P per capita was 0.58. In the present study this ratio was applied to the urban total P per capita to give a rural total P per capita of 0.44 kg of total P personK1 yearK1. The product of the total rural population of Northern Ireland and the annual per capita gives the total rural population annual load of total P to surface waters.

5. Results 5.1. Diffuse P loads Employing the export coefcients for all the different land use types, and knowing their respective areas, annual loads of total P from diffuse sourceswere predicted for all catchments in Northern Ireland to give a total of 1295 tonnes of total P yearK1 (Table 1) On average, diffuse agricultural sources export 1130 tonnes total P yearK1. As the agricultural loads were based on export coefcients that were derived from catchments that had a rural population density of 0.4 persons haK1, this rural contribution has to be subtracted to give a net agricultural contribution of 1023 tonnes total P yearK1 (Table 2). Diffuse sources other than agriculture contribute a further 165 tonnes total P yearK1 to surface and coastal waters (Table 2), the most important of which is diffuse losses from urban conurbations (70 tonnes total P yearK1). 5.2. Human contribution The human contribution to the overall P budget for Northern Ireland can be divided into urban sewered (i.e., households connected to mains sewerage), unsewered households connected to septic tanks in rural areas and industrial discharges. The urban sewered contribution was calculated as the product of the urban population of Northern Ireland (1,232,933 persons) and a per capita value of

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Table 2 Phosphorus budget for Northern Ireland: inputs to inland and coastal waters CORINE classes Agricultural contribution Complex cultiva2.41, 2.42, 2.43 tion Good pasture 2.3.1.1 Poor pasture 2.3.1.3 Mixed pasture 2.3.1.2 Arable 2.1.1 Rural population Total Other diffuse contribution Urban 1.1.11.4.2 Moorland 3.2.1, 3.2.2 Forest 3.1.1, 3.1.2 Peat bogs 3.2.4 Others Total Human contributions Urban sewered P removal programme Industrial discharges (point source) Septic tanks Total Rainfall Overall total Total phosphorus (tonnes yearK1) 369 355 47 203 156 K107 1023 70 39 22 31 3 165 945 K145 40

is highest from industrial processes such as abattoirs, creameries and food processing. The gross annual total P contributions from these sources (estimated by the Environment and Heritage Service for Northern Ireland) is 40 tonnes. In total, the gross human contribution to P losses to surface waters in Northern Ireland is 1103 tonnes less the 145 tonnes that is removed at WWTWs. 5.3. Rainfall contribution The nal contributor to P losses to surface waters is precipitation which has a contribution of 0.5 kg total P haK1 yearK1 (Jordan, 1994) Obviously rainfall contributes to the other diffuse losses and will be a component in their losses to surface waters. However, rainfall which falls directly onto water bodies is not accounted for in the previous budget calculations. The total area of water bodies in Northern Ireland is 569 km2 and the product of this area and the rainfall input of P is 28 tonnes of total P yearK1. 5.4. Total P budget for Northern Ireland A total P budget for Northern Ireland in respect of both inland and coastal waters is shown in Table 2 The relative contribution of point and diffuse sources to the overall P budget is shown in Fig. 2. The largest contributors to losses to inland and coastal waters are agriculture (48%) and the sewered urban human population (37%) after allowing for chemical removal of P at 13 WWTWs. However, based on Water Service gures it is evident that 14 of the major WWTWs discharge their P loads direct to the sea or estuaries with an estimated P load of 425 tonnes P yearK1 of secondary treated efuent. The maximum P load to inland waters is therefore estimated as 520 tonnes and, in relative terms, the urban contribution of total P is reduced to 21% and the agricultural contribution increased to 59% (Fig. 3).

118 958 28 2174

0.766 kg P person yearK1 to give a total P loading of 945 tonnes yearK1 (Table 2). The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (Directive 91/271/EC) sets standards for waste treatment plants discharging to waters sensitive to eutrophication to conform to an annual average limit of 2 mg P lK1. Thirteen waste water treatment works (WWTWs) currently use chemical P removal to meet these standards, removing 145 tonnes total P yearK1 (estimated by Water Service for Northern Ireland), which is some 15% of the urban sewered contribution. The total P load from the rural population was calculated as the product of the rural population of Northern Ireland (267,619) and a per capita value of 0.44 kg P personK1 yearK1 to give a total P loading of 118 tonnes yearK1 (Table 2). Industrial efuents which have been given consents by the Environment and Heritage Service for Northern Ireland to discharge total P directly to surface waters

6. Discussion To employ the P budget as a policy tool it is important that the coefcients employed command a high degree of condence. Validation of the export coefcients employed in the present study was

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Fig. 2. Total phosphorus budget for Northern Ireland for inland and coastal waters, following phosphorus reduction at major waste water treatment works.

Fig. 3. Total phosphorus budget for Northern Ireland for inland waters only, following phosphorus removal at major waste water treatment works.

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undertaken by Jordan et al. (2000) who obtained a signicant correlation for 18 river catchments between predicted river loads based on export coefcients and observed river loads for the years 19891996 from which the urban contribution had been subtracted. Although the export coefcients employed in the present study are based on 1990 data, in the following decade there has been minimal changes in agricultural intensity and land use. For example the total dairy cattle numbers have only changed from 278,000 in 1990 (HMSO, 1990) to 284,000 in 2000 (DARD, 2000). Also the hydrological year 1989/1990 had a rainfall total of 864.3 mm compared with the 19902000 mean of 868.7. This is important because it would not be representative to use extreme years to derive export coefcients such as 1994/1995 when the rainfall total was 718.8 mm or 1987/1988 when it was 979.6 mm. Unfortunately the 2001 Population Census did not distinguish between sewered and unsewered households so in the present study the 1991 Census (DHSS, 1992) was used. However, the population changes between 1990 and 2000 have been small (1,500,552 in 1990 and 1,685,267 in 2000). The European Environment Agency (1999) has reported that European per capita values for total P vary from 1.01.5 kg total P personK1 yearK1 for industrialised countries compared with the 0.84 total P person K1 year K1 employed in the present study. This comparison emphasises the need to use local direct measurements of point sources to obtain relevant per capita values. The contribution of non-point agricultural sources of P to total P river loads in Europe are reviewed by MacLeod and Haygarth (2003). Non-point sources range from 29% for the river Kennet (Jarvie et al., 2002)

to 60% for the Frome (Hanrahan et al., 2001). In the present study the agricultural contribution of non-point sources of total P to both inland and coastal waters was 48%. This is much less than the agricultural contribution to the nitrate budget for N. Ireland which is 69% (Jordan and Smith, 2005). If human contributions of total P that are discharged directly to estuarine and coastal waters are excluded however, the agricultural contribution rises to 59% which is very similar to the predominantly agricultural catchment of the Frome (Hanrahan et al., 2001). Previous studies in Northern Ireland have not employed export coefcient modelling and have been restricted mainly to the Lough Neagh catchment area (Smith, 1977; Foy et al., 1982, 2003). In the most recent study, Foy et al. (2003) estimated that urban sources of total P contributed only 19.7% of inow P to Lough Neagh. This is very similar to the 21% urban contribution to Northern Ireland inland waters estimated in the present study. A requirement of the EU Water Framework Directive is that an economic analysis should be undertaken of the most cost-effective combination of measures to provide good ecological status of water resources. A total P budget of the kind described in the present study provides a starting point for estimating how much of the total P entering surface waters can be potentially reduced. Methods of reducing P inputs fall into two main categories: source controls and transport controls. Examples of source controls are P reduction at WWTWs (Woods et al., 1999) and a ban on the use of P in detergents which contribute 42% of the human per capita. These controls can be applied singly or in combination (Table 3). A combined policy of chemical removal at all WWTWs connected to populations greater than 10,000 and a ban on

Table 3 Potential for the reduction of total phosphorus inputs to surface waters from the human population P Source Existing load (tonnes P yearK1) 945a 118 1063 80% reduction at WWTW (tonnes P yearK1) K699 K K699 65% P detergent ban (tonnes P yearK1) K397 K49 K446 42% P reduction at WWTW plus a detergent P ban (tonnes P yearK1) K720 K49 K769 72%

Urban sewered Rural population (Septic tanks) Total Percentage reduction achieved by policy
a

Includes 145 tonnes removed under current policies.

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the use of P in detergents sold in Northern Ireland could reduce P inputs from the human population to waters by 72%, whilst policies of chemical removal and a detergent ban alone could achieve 65 and 42% reductions, respectively. Transport controls include installation of Sustainable Drainage Systems (SUDS) to intercept particulate P in urban runoff and buffer strips to intercept surface runoff of P from agriculture (Heathwaite and Dils, 2000). We estimate that some 50% of the total P entering Northern Ireland surface waters could be removed at source or intercepted by employing a combination of source and transport controls. Costs however vary markedly between control methods. At one end of the scale there are 7,650,000 annual savings to be made on P fertiliser costs by reducing the P surplus in Northern Ireland to 5.0 kg P haK1 yearK1 (Smith et al., 1995). There are the modest costs of P reduction at WWTWs which is calculated by the Water Service for Northern Ireland to be 6.50 per kg of P removed which gives a total annual cost of about 4.5 million to remove P from all sewage works with population equivalents of 10,000 or greater. At the other end of the scale are buffer strips on riparian improved grassland which have unit costs much greater than P reduction at WWTWs. This high cost is due mainly to the requirement for fencing to avoid cattle grazing adjacent to watercourses. The cost of fencing in Environmentally Sensitive Areas is estimated to be 1.93 m by the Department of Agriculture for Northern Ireland. Combine this costing with the need to fence 7767 km of riparian zones of all rivers shown on the 1:50,000 OSNI map (OSNI, 1999) beside improved grassland and one is led to costings of about 15,000,000 which, allowing a 10 year life span is a cost of 1,500,000 per annum. The total cost of these remedial controls are still modest compared with the environmental damage caused by eutrophication. A recent report commissioned by the Environmental Agency (Pretty et al., 2001) concluded that the annual costs of environmental damage by human-induced freshwater eutrophication in England and Wales was between 75.0 and 114.4 million. Even though N. Ireland has a markedly smaller land area than England and Wales it has a very similar total area of standing waters. Based on Land Cover Map 2000 statistics (Fuller et al., 2002) the area of inland waters in England and Wales

is 675 km2 while the equivalent gure for N. Ireland is 677 km2. So total costs of eutrophication appear to be an order of magnitude higher than remedial controls that would reduce some 50% of the total P entering Northern Ireland surface waters.

Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Environment and Heritage Service, Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland, and the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.

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