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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report


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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Modification in Contract Specification- Maize- Feed/Industrial grade
As per a circular dated 21 June, 2013, the Exchange, with the approval of the Forward Markets Commission, has made modifications in the Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade (Kharif) futures contracts (SYMBOL: MAIZEKHRF). Currently, Maize-Feed/Industrial Grade (Rabi) futures contracts (SYMBOL: MAIZERABI) expiring in July 2013, August 2013 and September 2013 are available and would continue to be traded as per existing contract specifications. The modifications will be applicable for all contracts expiring in October 2013 and thereafter. Contract expiring in the month of October 2013 were made available for trading from June 24, 2013. (Source: NCDEX)
st

Market Highlights (% change)


Last Prev. day

as on June 23, 2013


WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18541 5590 59.82 95.18 1276.8

-1.24 -1.37 0.91 1.59 -1.15

-4.06 -4.44 2.93 -2.65 -7.67

-5.76 -6.31 7.36 0.99 -8.28

9.24 8.63 4.71 19.33 -18.47

.Source: Reuters

China June soybean imports seen at record 8.3 million T


Soybean imports in China, the world's biggest buyer, are expected to rise 63 percent on the month to a record 8.32 million tonnes in June. Delayed shipments, caused mainly by port congestion in Brazil, led to a 12.2 percent fall in soybean imports over the first five months of the year, and buyers are looking to replenish dwindling stockpiles. The huge import volume in June is likely to hurt crushing margins, and may trigger cancellations by Chinese crushers. (Source: Reuters)

Kharif sowing: Maharashtra makes steady progress


With the monsoon arriving on time in Maharashtra, sowing has been completed in about 20 per cent of the total cultivable area of 144 lakh hectares. Even the drought-prone Vidarbha region has received good rains and cotton is being planted on vast tracks of land, said a senior officer of the State Government. Since the beginning of the monsoon, the State has received 228 mm of rainfall, while the average rainfall in June is 128 mm. If the bounty continues, then the State could comfortably overcome the drought-like situation prevalent earlier. This kharif season, crops are expected to be planted over 135 lh. This includes sugarcane, which overall would cover about 144 lh across Maharashtra. In the Konkan region the rice bowl of Maharashtra nurseries are spread over 30,000 hectares. (Source: Business Line)

Indian cotton prices likely to rise on demand, low supply


Cotton prices in India are likely to rise this week due to slack supplies in the local market amid good demand from yarn manufacturers though the progress of the monsoon, which would help sowing, is expected to limit the upside. Supplies have declined sharply in the domestic market as farmers are busy in the new planting season with just around 20,00025,000 bales coming into the market, traders said. Monsoon rains are progressing well so far but could ease soon after hitting 89 percent over averages in the week to June 19. Farmers have started sowing cotton and good progress of rains is seen accelerating sowing operations and improving yield, traders said. (Source: Google News)

Co-ops to supply PDS sugar to states


In a major transformation in the sugar procurement mechanism, 10 large sugar producing states are planning to enter into memoranda of understanding with local co-operative mills for buying sugar to distribute under the Public Distribution System (PDS). Seven others have already floated tenders and are in various stages of finalisation. States, therefore, are set to commence sugar procurement from the open market soon. Most states buying sugar for PDS from co-operatives mean that the window of state demand for sugar after decontrol for private mills is closed in those states. States will have to buy nearly 2.4 million tonnes of sugar in a year for PDS. The governments of large sugar producing states, including Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Karnataka have decided to procure the sweetener from co-operative sugar mills that are largely run by political heavyweights, directly or indirectly. Since these co-operative mills contribute around 40 per cent of Indias overall sugar output, procurement from them would suffice states requirements.
(Source: Business Standard)

June rains crimp sugar output in Brazil by over 10 days


June rains have taken 10 days of harvest away from sugar and ethanol mills so far, and new showers expected in the main producing region this week will hold up crushing even more, local forecaster Somar said on Monday. The wet weather, which slowed harvesting and will drag down sugar and ethanol yields, provided some support for international sugar prices, traders said. Domestic ethanol prices have stabilized in the past weeks as Brazil, the world's largest exporter of sugar, enters the peak of cane harvest. While rain slowed production, large ethanol traders and producers have also been active buying the biofuel in the center-south and shipping it to the north and northeast markets, where drought has hurt output and left the local market under-supplied. (Source: Reuters)

Edible oils market awaits palm oil export data


Good progress of monsoon rain in producing centres and bearish futures markets amid slack demand pulled down edible oil prices on Monday. Palm oil export data on Tuesday could provide further cues for the market, said an observer. Soyabean arrivals were about 1.25 lakh-1.30 lakh bags including 75,000-80,000 from Madhya Pradesh. Mustard seeds arrivals were 1.55 lakh-1.60 lakh bags and the prices were at Rs 3.1753,575. (Source: Business Line)

Analysts see CPO price jump in Ramadan


With or without the current haze situation enveloping Sumatra, Malaysia and Singapore, Ramadan period next month will serve as a near-term catalyst for crude palm oil (CPO) prices. Even without the current haze situation, CPO prices are still expected to pick up due to stocking up activities during Ramadan period. Muslims are expected to start fasting from July 9 till August 7 this year. Traditionally, the strong Middle East orders and rising local consumption will support the demand of palm oil. Data released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board also showed a decline in inventories last month to 1.8 million tonnes, indicating a recovery in prices. (Source: Factiva)

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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a flat note yesterday and settled 0.06% lower as good demand from the millers supported prices while good rains in the kharif pulses growing regions pressurized prices. Chana prices are sustaining above their MSP levels since past two weeks. Despite of good demand at such lower levels, sharp upside in the prices is capped mainly on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 3.74 lakh hectares have st been covered as on 21 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 23, 2013 % change Last 3228 3248 Prev day -0.23 -0.06 WoW 1.34 1.72 MoM -3.05 -1.61
Source: Reuters

YoY -25.39 -24.09

Spread Matrix
Closing 3227.9 3248 3314 3382 19-Jul-13 20.1 0 -

as on June 23, 2013 20-Aug-13 86.1 66 0 20-Sep-13 154.1 134 68 0 as on June 22, 2013 Stocks as on 21st June 77361 44118 10724 132203 Qty in Process 551 754 232 1537

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Demand supply scenario


Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 22nd June 77600 44750 10754 133104 Qty in Process 581 441 232 1254

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may trade on a mixed note today. Good demand at lower levels coupled with declining arrivals may provide support to the prices. However, good rains and thereby, prospects of better kharif sowing may cap sharp upside in the prices in the short term. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 25, 2013 Resistance 3260-3275

3220-3234

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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean continued to decline yesterday extending last weeks losses as sowing is progressing well across major growing belts amidst smooth progress of monsoon so far. The spot as well as the futures settled 1.32% and 1.7% lower respectively on Monday. In the domestic markets, planting of kharif oilseeds such as groundnut, sesame and castor has started in states such as Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Soybean sowing has also commenced with good monsoon over Maharashtra and MP. Monsoon has covered almost the entire country a month before the normal schedule. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds sowing is completed under 8.13 lakh ha against normal 3.37 lakh ha. Groundnut was sown in 5.56 lakh ha against 2.21 lakh ha sown during the same period last year. Soybean was planted on 1.32 lakh ha, against 0.16 lakh ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean gained by 1.26% on Monday ahead of the planting intentions data to be released on Friday. Also, estimates of lower soybean stocks as on June 1 supported prices. However, favorable weather capped gains in the far month contracts. Price were on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks. According to the latest USDA report, 85% planting is complete as against 98% last year and a five year average of 91%. The government is predicting record soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting & damaged crops already in ground prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds.

Market Highlights

as on June 23, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.32 -1.67 -1.70 1.26 -0.18 -0.91 -4.15 -0.03 0.07 0.11

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3888 3754 1512 3512 3499

MoM -2.29 -2.06 2.42 0.07 0.11

YoY 2.21 -1.30 2.82 -11.11 -11.31

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 Closing 3888 3754 3216 3196 19-Jul-13 -134 0 18-Oct-13 -672 -538 0 -

as on June 23, 2013 20-Nov-13 -692 -558 -20 0 as on June23, 2013 20-Aug-13 28.65 42 0 20-Sep-13 72.65 86 44 0 as on June 22, 2013 Qty in Process 80 0 0 80 as on June 22, 2013 Qty in Process 0 21 71 0 947 110 70 1218 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3512.35 3499 3541 3585 19-Jul-13 -13.35 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 22nd June 19964 2491 401 22856 Stocks as on 22nd June 3010 4104 20288 634 58258 4912 1660 92866 Qty in Process 140 0 0 140 Qty in Process 0 20 30 0 945 70 10 1075 Stocks as on 21th June 19964 2491 401 22856 Stocks as on 21st June 3010 3962 20167 634 57775 4791 1600 91939

Outlook
Soybean prices may extend the losses of the last week on account of higher sowing amidst smooth progress of monsoon. However, recovery in the international markets may support prices at lower levels. Monsoon progress also has to be tracked as failure to continue its smooth progress may restrict sharp downside.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard futures July futures declined by almost a percent on Monday tracking weak edible oil complex. Prices gained last week due to lower level demand while comfortable supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt have pressurized prices in the past few weeks. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures is expected to remain under downside pressure on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 25, 2013 Support 3675-3710 3458-3475 Resistance 3800-3850 3520-3545
Source: Telequote

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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil July futures settled 0.41% lower on Monday tracking weak international markets. Broad sell off in commodities last week on concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve may phase out stimulus exerted downside pressure on the CBOT soy oil prices. Edible oil prices have gained in the domestic markets in the last 3-4 weeks on account of weak rupee which was making imports costlier. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 706.95 690.85 47.55 2394 504.20 Prev day -0.69 -0.41 -0.98 -1.52 -0.47

as on June 23, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Futures

WoW -0.95 -3.29 -2.64 -2.64 1.04

MoM -2.90 -2.14 -3.43 #N/A 6.26

YoY -6.07 -9.25 -6.54 -20.60 -11.62

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 706.95 690.85 684.6 677.8 19-Jul-13 -16.1 0 20-Aug-13 -22.35 -6.25 0 -

as on June 23, 2013 20-Sep-13 -29.15 -13.05 -6.8 0 as on June 23, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may continue to trade with a negative bias on account of weakness in the international markets. However, good demand ahead of Ramazan may limit the downside in the prices. A weak Rupee may also limit the downside in the prices.

CPO Spread Matrix


29-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 Closing 504.2 504.6 505.3 29-Jun-13 0 31-Jul-13 0.4 0 -

Crude Palm Oil


MCX CPO declined by 0.47% on Monday tracking weak KLCE Palm oil futures, which declined 1.52% as commodities tumbled on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve may phase out stimulus. However, a weak Rupee limited the downside.. Exports of Malaysian palm oil between June 1-25 were reported at 1,167,266 tn, up by 9.6% compared to 1,064,925 tn between May 125 as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

31-Aug-13 1.1 0.7 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices may continue to decline taking cues from the weak international markets. however, a weak Rupee may restrict the downside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 25, 2013 Support 684-687 500-502 Resistance 694-698 507-510

Source: Telequote

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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After gaining sharply over the last four sessions, Jeera prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking and settled 0.58% lower on Monday. Prices have gained last week on account of good overseas as well as local demand. Currently, about 25-30% of total arrivals have been exported, mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,525 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13764 13603 5701 5966 Prev day 0.25 -0.58 2.11 0.98

as on June 23, 2013 % Change WoW 2.31 4.35 2.50 4.92 MoM 1.16 2.35 -5.50 0.71 YoY -1.69 -1.72 56.16 42.05

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13763.9 13602.5 13910 14270 19-Jul-13 -161.4 0 20-Aug-13 146.1 307.5 0 -

as on June 23, 2013 20-Sep-13 506.1 667.5 360 0 as on June 23, 2013 19-Jul-13 265 0 20-Aug-13 343 78 0 20-Sep-13 439 174 96 0 as on June 22, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 21st June Process 846 7354 8200 4942 NCDEX July contract 170 75 245 120

Arrivals production and Exports


Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 16,000 bags on Monday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-42 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5701 5966 6044 6140

Outlook
Jeera prices may trade higher today on account of overseas as well as domestic demand. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 22nd June 873 7390 8263 4942 Qty in Process 141 48 189 120

Turmeric
Turmeric futures continued to trade higher yesterday and settled 0.98% higher on account of lower arrivals. Also, fresh export enquiries supported prices. However, good progress of the monsoon thereby expectations of good sowing have capped sharp gains. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports


Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 3,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Monday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP s th reported at 0.01 lakh ha as on 19 June, 2013. Sowing Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 40-50%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices are expected trade on a positive note today supported by lower arrivals as well as fresh export enquiries. However, huge carryover stocks may cap the upside. Good monsoon progress, thereby prospects of good sowing may also pressurize prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 25, 2013


Support 13390-13500 5745-5861 Resistance 13700-13810 6053-6129
Source: Telequote

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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices traded on a flat note yesterday. The government will not consider increase in the import duty until September 2013, pressurized prices. However, output concerns supported prices at lower levels. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3011 `/qtl 510.9 $/tonne 378.00 $/tonne 1.61 2.90 0.00 Last 3047

as on June 23, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.34 -0.74 -2.37 3.84 0.47 MoM -0.73 -0.30 7.24 1.01 YoY 2.19 3.33 -13.52 -17.15

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3047 3011 3063 3111 19-Jul-13 -36 0 20-Aug-13 16 52 0 -

as on June 23, 2013 20-Sep-13 64 100 48 0

Domestic Production and Exports


After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 22nd June 2198 6987 1022 1228 11435 Qty in Process 300 650 0 0 950 Stocks as on 21st June 1698 6837 1022 0 18557

as on June 22, 2013 Qty in Process 550 0 0 1229 1779

Global Sugar Updates


ICE as well as Liffe Sugar futures continued to gain yesterday and settled 2.9% and 1.61% higher on Monday as heavy rains in Brazil have halted harvesting. Reports of continued showers this week may delay the crushing further. As per the local weather forecaster Somar, heavier than expected rains have halted cane harvesting for seven days for some mills across centersouth Brazil in June, the world's biggest sugar producing region. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may trade with a negative bias today as the government will not increase the import duty. Good rains in the cane growing regions may also pressurize prices at higher levels. However, improvement in the international prices coupled with Ramadan demand as well as output concerns this season may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for June 25, 2013 Support 2990-3002 Resistance 3023-3035

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Commodities Daily Report


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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton settled 0.36% higher on Monday on account of good demand for yarn coupled with declining supplies in the domestic markets. However weak international prices coupled with higher cotton planting this season capped the upside in the prices. NCDEX Kapas settled 0.36% lower. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October th 2012 until 26 May, 2013 were down at 311.17 lakh bales, down from 320.82 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1074 19500 82.98 91.85

as on June 23, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.65 1.03 0.36 2.52 -2.55 -5.09 -0.54 -4.97 MoM YoY 1.03 #N/A 8.51 21.50 1.83 21.48 1.94 11.60
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 28.13 lakh ha as against 24.59 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Cotton Spread Matrix


Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19500 19800 20030 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 23, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 300 0 530 230 0

Domestic Production and Consumption


Cotton Advisory Board in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the cotton advisory board which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse


Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 22nd June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 22, 2013

Stocks as on 21st June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates


ICE cotton declined 2.55% on Monday on account of long liquidation coupled with worries over demand from China. Rains in West Texas raised cotton crop prospects in top US cotton producing state. Prices were trading around the highest levels in three months during the last week as USDA lowered its forecast for cotton inventory in the US for upcoming season due to a lower-than-expected crop in Texas. Further, lower planting was also supporting an upside in the cotton prices. Plantings were reported at 95% v/s 88% last week, 5 year avg of 97%.

Technical Chart - Kapas

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade with a positive bias today on account of thin supplies and good yarn demand. Weakness in the Indian rupee may also support prices. Higher cotton planting figures so far in the domestic markets and smooth progress of monsoon may however, cap sharp upside in the prices in the coming weeks.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX June contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX June Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 25, 2013 Support 1045-1058 19650-19740 Resistance 1090-1105 19920-20010
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report


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Tuesday| June 25, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 1.72% and 1.92% lower respectively on Monday due to improvement in the sowing of the guar crop. However, slack supplies as farmers held back stocks on hopes of better prices supported prices at lower levels. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7440 `/qtl 21774 `/qtl 21510 `/qtl -1.92 -0.79 -1.72 Last Prev day 7704 -0.87

as on June 23, 2013 % change WoW 0.44 -1.33 -1.66 -2.14 MoM -17.23 -17.52 -20.97 -21.24 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing


IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7704.15 7440 6370 6210 19-Jul-13 -264.15 0 -

as on June 23, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1334.15 -1070 0 20-Sep-13 -1494.15 -1230 -160 0 as on June 23, 2013 20-Aug-13 -2824.15 -2560 0 Stocks as on 21st June 59 10 20-Sep-13 -3274.15 -3010 -450 0 as on June 22, 2013 Qty in Process 0 71

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix


Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 21774.15 21510 18950 18500 Stocks as on 22nd June 59 81 19-Jul-13 -264.15 0 Qty in Process 0 0

Production and Exports


According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse


Location Deesa Bikaner

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
A prediction of below normal rains in Northwest India may support an upside in the prices in the near term. However, it is too early to predict the same as monsoon progress so far is smooth. Further, supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand thus exerting pressure on the prices at higher levels. good sowing may also add to the downside pressure.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum Technical Outlook


Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl valid for June 25, 2013 Support 7200-7320 7200-7320 20700-21050 20750-21100 Resistance 7570-7700 7570-7700 21750-22000 21800-22050

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

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