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Weekly Market Commentary June 24, 2013

The Markets
It was like watching a game of telephone where one child speaks into another childs ear and that child speaks into another childs ear and, by the time the last child repeats the original statement, it has transformed into something completely different. Chairman Ben Bernanke stepped up to the microphone at the press conference after the Federal Open Market Committees policy meeting and said: As I mentioned, the current level of the federal funds rate target is likely to remain appropriate for a considerable period after asset purchases are concluded. To return to the driving analogy, if the incoming data support the view that the economy is able to sustain a reasonable cruising speed, we will ease the pressure on the accelerator by gradually reducing the pace of (bond) purchases. However, any need to consider applying the brakes by raising short-term rates is still far in the future. In any case, no matter how conditions may evolve, the Federal Reserve remains committed to fostering substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability. His statements filtered through analysts and managers, through blogs and media outlets and, by the time it reached investors, they heard this: SELL. The message rippled through stock, bond, and other markets around the world. As markets fell, interest rates rose, particularly in countries like Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Russia, and Poland. A Bloomberg report cited in the Washington Post stated the Peoples Bank of China injected about $8.2 billion into Chinas financial system in an effort to keep interest rates low. Investors fears were reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is also known as the investor fear gauge. It measures the market's expectations for volatility during the next 30-day period. It started the week at 10.2 percent and finished the week at 19. According to a Citigroup equity strategist who was quoted in The Wall Street Journal, there are much higher probabilities for market gains when the VIX is sitting between 10 and 15 than when it is in the 20-25 range... Will markets settle? Or, will volatility continue? Time will tell.
Data as of 6/21/13 Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) 10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) Gold (per ounce) DJ-UBS Commodity Index DJ Equity All REIT TR Index 1-Week -2.1% 2.5 -6.9 -2.4 -5.1 Y-T-D 11.7% N/A -23.5 -8.5 1.5 1-Year 20.1% 1.6 -18.1 -0.4 10.0 3-Year 12.7% 3.2 1.1 -0.3 13.4 5-Year 3.9% 4.2 8.0 -11.2 6.2 10-Year 5.0% 3.4 13.8 0.9 10.8

Notes: S&P 500, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barrons, djindexe s.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

THERES ANOTHER HOUSING BUBBLE? REALLY? The housing market in the United States isnt just recovering its RECOVERING. Tight inventories, fewer foreclosures, low mortgage rates, and rising demand have helped push home prices significantly higher. Yearover-year sales data shows home prices increased by about 15 percent through the end of May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Thats the strongest year -over-year improvement since October 2005, and it marks the 15th month of gains in a row. In many cases, cities that had experienced the biggest declines in prices during the housing crisis realized some of the biggest gains. Double digit price gains have some believing the housing market is getting frothy and a new housing bubble may be forming. Fitch, a ratings service, recently said home price gains in some markets are outpacing improvements in underlying fundamentals, which could cause prices to stagnate or fall again. So, is it a bubble? It depends on who you ask, but credible sources suggest otherwise. According to an article in an early June issue of The Economist: To qualify as a bubble, an asset must not simply appreciate; it must decouple from its intrinsic value. For houses, The Economist each quarter compares the ratio of prices to household income and rents against their long-run average in 20 countries. We have now done the same for the 20 metropolitan areas in the Case-Shiller index. The verdict: in most markets, houses are at or near their long-run values, but none looks bubbly. One thing thats keeping home prices high is limited supply. The Chief Economist for the NAR recently said one way to moderate future price growth is to create additional supply by building more new homes. It seems clear from the markets response to the Fed Chairmans comments during last weeks press conference and speculation about bubbles investors are feeling a lot of fear and uncertainty.

Weekly Focus Think About It


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Steve@GierlAugustine.com visit our website @ http://www.retirewithga.com Securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisor Representative. Gierl Augustine Investment Management, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Gierl Augustine Investment Management, Inc., and Cambridge are not affiliated. Cambridge Investment Research, Inc does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by e-mail, voice mail, fax or any alternate method. If you would like to execute a trade or if you have time-sensitive information for me, please call my office at 724-353-1800. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. E-mail sent through the Internet may be viewed by others and is not confidential. Cambridge Investment Research, Inc reserves the right to monitor all e-mail. Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Cambridge Investment Research, Inc and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Cambridge Investment Research, Inc and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in email. Cambridge does not offer tax advice. This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you did not intend to receive this message, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer. * This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer. * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the longterm bond market. * Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. * The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. Sources: http://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20130619.pdf ( Page 6) http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/22/us-usa-fed-volatility-idUSBRE95L06720130622 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/20/this-is-why-global-markets-are-freaking-out/ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-week-ahead-stocks-000902889.html http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/21/time-to-start-fearing-the-vix/ http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/us-usa-economy-homes-index-idUSBRE94R0HA20130528 http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/20/news/economy/home-prices-sales-bubble/ http://www.cnbc.com/id/100834061 http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21579030-recovering-prices-have-yet-inflate-any-big-cities-bubblehunting%20 http://www.peakadvisoralliance.com/app/webroot/custom/editor/06-2413_US_House_Prices_Surge_as_Recovery_Gains_Momentum.pdf http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/skepticism.html