Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | June 27, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | June 27, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indias CAD at 3.6% of GDP in 4Q2012-13, from 6.7% in 3Q2012-13 German Unemployment Change fell to -12,000 in the last month. LME inventories decline, in todays trading session. UKs Current Account was at deficit of 14.5 bn Pounds in Q1 2013. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 27 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5647.95 18716.11 12968.72 1809.55 15400.04

5699.35 18925.75 13213.55 1839.52 15433.57

5630.95 18688.28 12873.50 1809.40 15296.58

5682.35 18875.95 13213.55 1834.70 15296.58

1.68 1.75 2.96 2.87 -0.17

Source: Reuters

European equities are trading higher on the back of favorable economic data from the region. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are also trading in the green. Indias Current Account Deficit (CAD) was 3.6 percent of GDP in Q4 of FY 2012-13 from earlier levels of 6.7 percent. For the FY 2012-13, CAD was at 4.8 percent an increase from 4.2 percent in FY 2011-12. German Import Prices declined by 0.4 percent in May as against a previous fall of 1.4 percent in April. German Unemployment Change fell to -12,000 in May from rise of 17,000 in April. European Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) rose by 2.3 points to 49.1-mark in June with respect to rise of 46.8-level in May. UKs Current Account was at a deficit of 14.5 billion Pounds in Q1 of 2013 as against an earlier deficit of 13.6 billion in Q4 of 2012. Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.3 percent in first quarter of current year. Spot gold prices are trading higher by 0.4 percent today on the back of weakness in the Dollar Index (DX). However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of fall in SPDR gold holdings trust, which are at the lowest level since February 2009. In the Indian markets, prices dropped 0.9 percent taking cues from appreciation in the Rupee. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals group, Spot silver prices gained by 0.7 percent today. Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $18.97/oz and was trading at $18.64/oz till 4:30pm IST today. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on prices, which fell 1 percent on the MCX today. The base metals pack traded higher today on the back of a bounce back in global markets. Further, weakness in the DX coupled with favorable economic data from Euro Zone supported stable sentiments. Additionally, decline in LME inventories except for Lead acted as a positive factor for base metals prices. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Rupee exerted downside pressure on prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased marginally by around 0.2 percent today, taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, stable market sentiments along with favorable economic data from Euro Zone acted as a positive factor for prices. On the domestic bourses, prices declined marginally on account of appreciation in the Rupee.

as at 4.30 pm 27 June 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.13 1.301 60.62

83.24 1.3041 60.625

83.015 1.3002 60.17

83.175 1.3023 60.20

-0.06 0.09 -0.85

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 27 June 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil July 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1225.64 1235.40 26151.00 18.51 28.23 39502 95.52 101.66 5806 6750.00 409.00 1836.25 109.85 2030 123.20 13629 827.00 1773.00 105.25

1244.50 1241.60 26279.0 18.97 0.1893 39863 96.14 102.48 5835 6800.00 409.40 1853.00 110.20 2055 124.40 13851 832.00 1784.25 105.40

1223.49 1225.00 25856.0 18.46 0.18475 39150 95.35 101.66 5776 6706.25 405.30 1833.75 109.00 2028 122.70 13618 825.00 1766.25 104.20

1230.26 1225.00 25893.00 18.64 0.1861 39204 95.70 102.07 5791 6756.50 407.30 1842.50 109.35 2043 122.95 13813 830.60 1768.00 104.25

0.41 -0.37 -0.93 0.70 0.12 -0.92 0.21 0.40 -0.07 0.32 -0.35 0.11 -0.36 0.63 -0.28 1.34 0.65 -0.28 -0.90

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | June 27, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook Economic data from the US is expected to come on the positive side today unemployment claims are expected to fall and pending home sales are forecasted to increase. Since both these indicators have a high impact on the markets, the positive data could boost the Dollar Index on expectations that favorable data would translate into a stronger US economy, thereby supporting an earlier pullback in stimulus spending by the Federal Reserve. Due to these worries coupled with strength in the Dollar Index prices of precious metals, base metals and crude oil are expected to trade on a negative note. Latest data by the ICSG (International Copper Study Group) indicates that the world copper market is running a surplus and this factor will lead to additional downside pressure on copper prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 27 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude July13 Crude Oil July13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25630 1202 38500 17.98 6140 5690 94.2 221 6630 401 107.5 121.3 102.5 810 Support 1 25790 1221 38900 18.41 6274 5740 94.95 223.5 6690 403 108.4 122 103.6 818 CMP 25912 1230 39245 18.66 6348 5785 95.72 225.3 6756 406.3 109.1 122.85 104 828.1 Resistance1 26130 1245 39600 18.85 6360 5835 96.25 228.5 6820 410 110.6 123.9 105.1 835 Resistance 2 26280 1260 40100 19.25 6400 5860 96.95 231 6900 413 111.6 125 106 842

Important Events for Today

Indicator German Unemployment Change M3 Money Supply y/y Current Account Final GDP q/q Italian 10-y Bond Auction EU Economic Summit Unemployment Claims Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Pending Home Sales m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks FOMC Member Powell Speaks Country Euro Euro UK UK Euro Euro US US US US US US Time (IST) 1:25pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 2:00pm Tentative Day 1 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm Actual -12K 2.9% -14.5B 0.3% Forecast 7K 2.9% -11.9B 0.3% 347K 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% Previous 21K 3.2% -14.0B 0.3% 354K 0.0% -0.2% 0.3% Impact Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium Medium