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R E E K L Y E P O Blow by Blow On R Bullions, T Base metals,

01 JULY 06 JULY 2013

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1, 180.35 a troy ounce, the earlier low, and resistance at USD1, 300.55, Monday's high. Uncertainty as to when the Federal Reserve begins to taper monetary stimulus measures has repelled investors away from the precious metal, which benefits when monetary policy is loose due to its role as a hedge to a weakening dollar. Elsewhere, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 84.1 for a final reading in June, up from a 82.7 reading the previous month and also above expectations for a 82.8 reading. The upbeat numbers came in wake of a report that revealed that the Chicago purchasing managers' index fell to 51.6 this month from 58.7 in May, exceeding expectations for a decline to 56.0.Any reading over 50 signifies expansion, which left investors at ease to seek out dollar positions. Also in the U.S., Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein suggested earlier Friday that asset purchases may begin to taper in September provided the economy improves, which further boosted the dollar though gold erased earlier losses and rose on Friday. In the global market, Brent crude oil prices rose above $103 a barrel on Friday after US Federal Reserve Governors hinted that the Central Bank is not in a hurry to stop economic stimulus. Persisting political tensions in the Middle East have been supporting the commodity movement to certain extent. On Thursday, the data released by the US Commerce Department showed that consumer spending in the US rebounded in May showing an increase of 0.3% after a 0.3 % drop in April. The consumer spending in the US accounts for 70% of the US economic activity. Though the pace of spending has slowed from the 2.6% annual rate notched in the first three months of the year, consumers will likely continue to drive growth in the second quarter. Also, US jobless claims for unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000. Copper prices in the international market remained negative on concerns over economic recovery in China and recent indication that the US Federal Reserve may end its monetary stimulus on improving economic conditions in the United States. On Thursday, the data released by the US Commerce Department showed that consumer spending in the US rebounded in May showing an increase of 0.3% after a 0.3 % drop in April. The consumer spending in the US accounts for 70% of the US economic activity. Though the pace of spending has slowed from the 2.6% annual rate notched in the first three months of the year, consumers will likely continue to drive growth in the second quarter. Copper futures for September delivery on Globex platform of Comex was seen trading slightly up by 0.45% at $3.073 per pound as of 04.02 PM IST on Friday. Also, US jobless claims for unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 346,000.

Gold shoots up in short covering on last trading day of quarter.

MCX Crude Oil positive; Persisting political tensions in the Middle East.

MCX Copper negative on weak global cues.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE & TIME
Jul 1, 5:00am 6:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Jul 2, 7:30pm 7:30pm All Day Jul 3, 5:00pm 5:45pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 8:00pm 8:30pm Jul 4, All Day Jul 5, 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm

DESCRIPTION
Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Final Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing PMI Construction Spending m/m ISM Manufacturing Prices Factory Orders m/m IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Total Vehicle Sales Challenger Job Cuts y/y ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Trade Balance Unemployment Claims ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Crude Oil Inventories Natural Gas Storage Bank Holiday Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

52.4 50.6 0.6% 50.5 2.1% 49.3 15.3M

52.2 49.0 0.4% 49.5 1.0% 49.0 15.3M -41.2%

161K -40.3B 345K 54.3

135K -40.3B 346K 53.7 0.0M 95B

165K 7.5% 0.2%

175K 7.6% 0.0%

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX GOLD last week showed downward movement, closed on a positive note on last session and gave closing above trend line on daily charts. Now, if this positive movement continuous then 26300 will act as resistance for it. On lower side 25250 will act as strong support for it, if it gives closing below this then it may find next support near 24800.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy above 25750 for the targets of 2625026800 with stop loss of 24990.

S1
25100

S2
24600

S3
24000

R1
26020

R2
26775

R3
27565

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER on its daily charts form descending broadening wedges pattern, found support on lower band and gave strong pull back from it. Now, if it breaks resistance of 41000 then it may find next resistance around 44000. Bearish movement is expected if it breaks 39700 towards the next support level of 38500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 41000 for targets of 42500-44000, with stop loss of 38800.

PIVOT TABLE S1
39500

S2
37800

S3
36000

R1
41650

R2
43800

R3
45850

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
Crude oil on daily charts still moves in an upward channel pattern found support of 23.6% retracement and pull back towards the upper band of channel. Now, if this bull rally continues then it may find resistance near 5900. On southward movement it find strong support in zone of 55805500.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 5870 for the targets of 5970-6100 with stop loss of 5725.

PIVOT TABLE S1
5720

S2
5570

S3
5430

R1
5900

R2
6025

R3
6200

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish to sideways movement broke downward channel pattern on lower side but unable to close below lower band of channel. Now, if it breaks 415 on higher side then breakout of channel pattern is expected and may find next resistance around 422. On lower side if it gives closing below psychological level of 400 then next support is seen near 390.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be buy above 415, with stop loss of 405 for the targets of 422-432.

S1
402.30

S2
393.50

S3
385.90

R1
414.60

R2
422.50

R3
432

DISCLAIMER

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