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Towards a sustainable energy future for the north coast Stuart White ! THINK. CHANGE. INSTITUTE
Towards a sustainable energy
future for the north coast
Stuart White
!
THINK.
CHANGE.
INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES
DO
Overview
Overview

Sustainable futures Economic renewal The planetary imperative The intelligent grid Distributed energy The cost of electricity North coast opportunities Policy tools Deliberative democracy Conclusions

grid Distributed energy The cost of electricity North coast opportunities Policy tools Deliberative democracy Conclusions
grid Distributed energy The cost of electricity North coast opportunities Policy tools Deliberative democracy Conclusions
Pathways to sustainable futures
Pathways to sustainable futures
Environment Economy Society Environment Economy Society
Environment
Economy
Society
Environment
Economy
Society
Pathways to sustainability Bossell (1998) “Pathways to sustainability”
Pathways to sustainability
Bossell (1998) “Pathways to sustainability”
Pathways to sustainability Bossell (1998) “Pathways to sustainability”
Economic renewal
Economic renewal
Economic renewal •   Plug the leaks •   Support existing businesses •   Encourage new

Plug the leaks Support existing businesses Encourage new local enterprise Recruit compatible new business

(Michael Kinsley, Rocky Mountain Institute, 1997)

new local enterprise •   Recruit compatible new business (Michael Kinsley, Rocky Mountain Institute, 1997)
IPCC Projected Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change: “Tipping points” at ~2 o C of warming!
IPCC Projected Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change:
“Tipping points” at ~2 o C of warming!
www.ipcc.ch/www.ipcc.ch/!!
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/20th%20Anniversary%20BFM/pres-wg-2-ipcc.pdf !
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/0/3/Slides_for_Launch.pdf!
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/0/3/Slides_for_Launch.pdf!
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/0/3/Slides_for_Launch.pdf!
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/0/3/Slides_for_Launch.pdf!
Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions 40% 30% Current Projection 20% 10% 0% -5% CPRS target -10%
Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions
40%
30%
Current Projection
20%
10%
0%
-5% CPRS target
-10%
-15% CPRS target
-20%
Australian target for 450ppm deal at COP15
IPCC Max Rec'n: -25%
-30%
-40%
IPCC Min Rec'n: -40%
-50%
Percentage Change from 1990

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Year

2015

2020

2025

2030
2030
What is Distributed Energy?
What is Distributed Energy?
Peak Load Management Time of Use tariiffs Interruptible loads Ice Storage Battery Storage / EVs
Peak Load
Management
Time of Use tariiffs
Interruptible loads
Ice Storage
Battery Storage / EVs
Power factor correction
Electric to Gas Hot Water
Gas Chillers
Biomass Generation
Behaviour change
Small Gas Generation
Efficient motors & chillers
Solar Photovoltaics
Cogeneration
Efficient Lighting
Efficient showerheads
Standby Generation
Efficiency Retrofits
Distributed

Generation

Energy

Efficiency

Lighting Efficient showerheads Standby Generation Efficiency Retrofits Distributed Generation Energy Efficiency
Elements of Intelligent Grid Transmission Power Stations Distribution Sensors, data collection and Automation:
Elements of Intelligent Grid
Transmission
Power Stations
Distribution
Sensors, data collection
and Automation:
Transmission Data
Collection and Automation
Predictive and
“Self Healing”

Using information, communications and control technologies to integrate the electricity network with “distributed energy” resources.

Figure Source: Southern California Edison & CPUC

Customer Distributed Energy: •   Peak Demand management - DSR •   Energy Efficiency •
Customer
Distributed Energy:
•   Peak Demand
management - DSR
•   Energy Efficiency
•   Distributed Generation
•   Energy Storage
•   Smart Meters,
•   Time of Use pricing
•   Real time displays
•   Advanced Comms
•   Electric Cars
Distributed Energy is crucial to carbon abatement “United States could reduce emissions by 31% to
Distributed Energy is crucial to carbon abatement
“United States could reduce emissions by 31% to 46% by 2030”
Towards a Distributed Energy Future
Towards a Distributed Energy Future

The Opportunities

Towards a Distributed Energy Future The Opportunities
Description and Cost Of Distributed Energy (D-CODE Model)
Description and Cost Of Distributed Energy
(D-CODE Model)
Description and Cost Of Distributed Energy (D-CODE Model)
Description and Cost Of Distributed Energy
(D-CODE Model)
NSW capacity projections to 2020 20,000! 19,000! 18,000! 17,000! 16,000! 15,000! 14,000! 13,000! 12,000!
NSW capacity projections to 2020
20,000!
19,000!
18,000!
17,000!
16,000!
15,000!
14,000!
13,000!
12,000!
Capacity - scheduled!
Capacity - non-scheduled (NEIER)!
Potential shortfall
Capacity needed for reliability!
CAPACITY (MW) !
2008/09!
2009/10!
2010/11!
2011/12!
2012/13!
2013/14!
2014/15!
2015/16!
2016/17!
2017/18!
2018/19!
2019/20!
Scenarios for meeting the capacity shortfall
Scenarios for meeting the
capacity shortfall

Scenario 1 – COAL

(approximates Owen Inquiry outcome)

!

!

1000 MW coal power station 2017 two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 & 2019

1000 MW coal power station 2017 two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 &

Scenario 2 – GAS

(~NEMMCO projections)

!

combination of open cycle and combined cycle gas

Scenario 3 - Cogeneration and Demand Side Response

cycle gas Scenario 3 - Cogeneration and Demand Side Response Scenario 4 - Energy efficiency and

Scenario 4 - Energy efficiency and Demand Side Response

Scenario 5 - Combined distributed energy

!

!

energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in 2014/15.

energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in
NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE 20,000! 19,000! 18,000! 17,000! 16,000! 15,000! ! 14,000!
NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE
20,000!
19,000!
18,000!
17,000!
16,000!
15,000!
!
14,000!
!
13,000!
12,000!
CAPACITY (MW) !
Exisiting or planned capacity! Demand side response! Cogeneration! Capacity needed for reliability! Energy
Exisiting or planned capacity!
Demand side response!
Cogeneration!
Capacity needed for reliability!
Energy efficiency!
2008/09!
2009/10!
2010/11!
2011/12!
2012/13!
2013/14!
2014/15!
2015/16!
2016/17!
2017/18!
2018/19!
2019/20!
2008/09! 2009/10! 2010/11! 2011/12! 2012/13! 2013/14! 2014/15! 2015/16! 2016/17! 2017/18! 2018/19! 2019/20!
Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions ! ! $35 90 87.6! ! 86.4! 85.4! !
Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions
!
!
$35
90
87.6!
!
86.4!
85.4!
!
$33
84.7!
85
!
!
$31
80
79.2!
!
!
$29
75
!
!
$27
70
!
!
$25
65
!
!
$23
60
!
!
$21
55
!
!
$19
50
!
!
$17
45
!
!
$15
40
Billion $ 2009 – 2020 !
Mt CO 2 -e per year!

Coal !

Gas !

Cogen and DSR!

Energy! efficiency and! DSR !

Combined!

distributed!

energy!

Existing supply - variable cost! !

New supply - amortized capital cost! !

Million Tonnes CO2-e in 2020! !

Network capital - amortized cost! !

New supply - variable cost! !

capital cost ! Million Tonnes CO2-e in 2020 ! Network capital - amortized cost ! New
Potential Benefits of Distributed Energy
Potential Benefits of Distributed Energy

!Lower costs !Lower greenhouse gas emissions !Increased reliability !Managed peak load !Enhanced social equity and access !Avoided generation costs !Avoided network costs

Managed peak load !   Enhanced social equity and access !   Avoided generation costs !
Source IPART Review of Regulated Retail Tariffs 2010-13 (March 2010)
Source IPART Review of Regulated Retail Tariffs 2010-13 (March 2010)

Source IPART Review of Regulated Retail Tariffs 2010-13 (March 2010)

!!" Source: Rod Sims, ‘Energy market outlook’ (Presentation to the Multi- Party Climate Change Committee,
!!"
!!"

Source: Rod Sims, ‘Energy market outlook’ (Presentation to the Multi- Party Climate Change Committee, 10 November 2010) !

Increases in energy and water prices (NSW) (nominal %) IPART 2011 Draft Decision: +18% =
Increases in energy and water prices (NSW)
(nominal %)
IPART 2011 Draft Decision: +18% = 77% !
%
(nominal %) IPART 2011 Draft Decision: +18% = 77% ! % Source:

Source: http://www.ipart.nsw.gov.au/files/Report%20-%202010%20HH%20survey%20report %20FINAL%20website%20-%20APD.PDF !

23

!

“ Residential electricity prices have increased by about 40 per cent over the last three

Residential electricity prices have increased by about 40 per cent over the last three years and are forecast to increase in the order of 30 per cent in the next three years to June 2013.”

-

Martin Ferguson, Weekend Australian, 2 April 2011, p.4

A $20 per tonne carbon price is forecast to increase electricity prices by 10% (and petrol by 4%)

2 April 2011, p.4 A $20 per tonne carbon price is forecast to increase electricity prices
What’s driving electricity prices increase ?
What’s driving electricity prices increase ?

Govt gouging of dividends? • Carbon Tax? • Green Schemes/ Solar Bonus?

Network charges driven by Network infrastructure investment is the dominant factor.

Green Schemes/ Solar Bonus? •   Network charges driven by Network infrastructure investment is the dominant
Energy Australia: Capital Expenditure Reliability
Energy
Australia:
Capital Expenditure
Reliability

Source: Energy Australia Annual Report 2009/10!

© Institute for

26

tt ://www aus rid com au/Common/About-us/Cor ! orate-

!

!

Energy Australia Annual Report 2009/10 ! © Institute for 26 tt ://www aus rid com au/Common/About-us/Cor
Components of electricity prices
Components of electricity prices

Source: Derived from Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, Review of regulated retail tariffs and charges for electricity 2010-2013 (Final Report, March 2010)!

Tribunal, Review of regulated retail tariffs and charges for electricity 2010-2013 (Final Report, March 2010) !
1 ! ! Rising Network Prices
1
!
!
Rising Network Prices

Energy Australia Indicative Proposed Network Charges!

18 Regulated Retail Tariff (up 21%) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 " !
18
Regulated Retail Tariff
(up 21%)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
"
!
2
0
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Electrcity Price (cents/KWh)

Customer Type

DomesticLow Voltage Business Cost Reflective Network Pricing

Low Voltage BusinessDomestic Cost Reflective Network Pricing

Cost Reflective Network PricingDomestic Low Voltage Business

Year

[1] Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission, January 2009, p. 190 !

Pricing Year [ 1 ] Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission , January 2009,
National Broadband Network: $36b in Capex by 2020
National Broadband Network: $36b in Capex by 2020
National Broadband Network: $36b in Capex by 2020

http://images.smh.com.au/file/2010/11/24/2061700/NBN%20Co%20%20Business%20Case%20Summary.pdf !

Network Investment: >$45 Billion by 2015 - Bigger (and sooner) than National Broadband Network
Network Investment:
>$45 Billion by 2015
- Bigger (and sooner) than National Broadband Network

$m

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

!"#$%&'()*+,#*-(./+"01,#2&"(34567(+8*89(

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

!"#2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $%&''(&)*+,- ./0'(1)213- #4

$%&''(&)*+,-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 !"# ./0'(1)213- #4 "4'(&)*+,-

./0'(1)213-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 !"# $%&''(&)*+,- #4 "4'(&)*+,-

#42008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 !"# $%&''(&)*+,- ./0'(1)213- "4'(&)*+,-

"4'(&)*+,-
"4'(&)*+,-
pushing power prices up steeply 1 ! ! Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges
pushing power prices up steeply
1
!
!
Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges
18 Regulated Retail Tariff (up 21%) 16 14 12 10 8 6 " 4 !
18
Regulated Retail Tariff
(up 21%)
16
14
12
10
8
6
"
4
!
2
0
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
Electrcity Price (cents/KWh)

Year

Network Prices

DomesticLow Voltage Business

Low VoltageDomestic Business

Business

Year Network Prices Domestic Low Voltage Business [ 1 ] Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal

[1] Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission, January 2009, p. 190 !

Where, when and what is the network value in Distributed Energy?

Where, when and what is the network value in Distributed Energy?

Where, when and what is the network value in Distributed Energy?
2009 !
2009 !
Concentrating solar power and biomass hybrid
Concentrating solar power and biomass hybrid
Solar contribution 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 Biomass contribution 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 2
Solar
contribution
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
Biomass contribution
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13 14
15
16
17
18
19
20 21
22
23 24
Energy generation

Time of day

CSP as additional capacity rather than fuel saver to optimise biomass equipment investment

Energy generation Time of day CSP as additional capacity rather than fuel saver to optimise biomass
Classifying Barriers to Distributed Energy
Classifying Barriers to Distributed Energy
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What it costs !
What it does !
What slows it down!

Institutional barriers are crucial!

!"##$%#& " What it costs ! What it does ! What slows it down! Institutional barriers
Institutional barriers
Institutional barriers
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift
Policy Tools to Move the Market
Lift
Push
Push
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift Push Pull
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift Push Pull
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift Push Pull
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift Push Pull
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift Push Pull
Pull
Pull
Policy Tools to Move the Market Lift Push Pull
The Policy Palette
The Policy Palette
Information
Information
Regulation
Regulation
Incentives
Incentives

Primary Instruments

The Policy Palette Information Regulation Incentives Primary Instruments
The Policy Palette - “PIRFICT” Information Information Targets Targets Facilitation Facilitation Coordination
The Policy Palette - “PIRFICT”
Information
Information
Targets
Targets
Facilitation
Facilitation
Coordination
Regulation
Regulation
Incentives
Incentives
Pricing
Pricing
20 Policy Tools for DE BC' ' D%)10<,%'%,%)/#$)$/4'&",%&'@#1A'
20 Policy Tools for DE
BC' ' D%)10<,%'%,%)/#$)$/4'&",%&'@#1A'
+%/E1#:'<#1F/&'
Information
15
14
Information!
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17

Targets

18

3

19

2

Regulatory

Reform

1

13

16

12 Facilitation

10

20

Coordination

7

11

9

5

6

4

Pricing reform

Incentives

8

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Deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy
“ … pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will ” Antonio Gramsci, Letters

… pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will

Antonio Gramsci, Letters from Prison

“ … pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will ” Antonio Gramsci, Letters from
Conclusions
Conclusions

An intelligent grid enables… distributed energy (energy efficiency, peak demand management, distributed generation) which enables… rapid greenhouse gas reduction… and local economic renewal and region-specific renewables development. all supported by an energy model, avoided cost analysis, community financing and last but not least…. deliberative engagement

!

energy model, avoided cost analysis, community financing and last but not least…. •   deliberative engagement
Thank you Stuart White Stuart.White@uts.edu.au Tel: 02 9514 4950 http://www.igrid.net.au/ http://www.isf.uts.edu.au/

Thank you

Stuart White Stuart.White@uts.edu.au Tel: 02 9514 4950

http://www.igrid.net.au/

http://www.isf.uts.edu.au/

Thank you Stuart White Stuart.White@uts.edu.au Tel: 02 9514 4950 http://www.igrid.net.au/ http://www.isf.uts.edu.au/