Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 1 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 1 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Revised Consumer Sentiment gained to 84.1-level level in June. German Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in May. Japans Manufacturing Index rose to 4-mark mark in Q2 of 2013. Chinas Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.1-mark mark in last month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.523 Prev day 1.1

as on 28 June, 2013 w-o-w -0.4 m-o-m -5.7 y-o-y -6.8

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data indicating signs of slowdown in the worlds second largest economy. nufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.7 Chinas Manufacturing points to 50.1-mark mark in June as against a rise of 50.8 50.8-level in May. HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell marginally to 48.2-level level in last month from 48.3-mark in May. ' Index (PMI) declined by 7.1 points to US Chicago Purchasing Managers' 51.6-mark in June as against a rise of 58.7-level level in May. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment gained by 1.4 points to 84.1 84.1-level in June from earlier rise if 82.7-mark a month ago. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 1 percent in the last week on the back of concerns that Federal Reserve will pullback its stimulus measures. Further, favorable economic data from the US and mixed statement from Fed officials regarding its action on bond buying supported ed an upside in the currency. The DX touched a weekly high of 83.595 and closed at 83.376 on Friday. On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee remained volatile and depreciated around 0.4 percent. The currency depreciated in the early part of the week as a result of concerns over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) of India. Additionally, strength in the DX and constant outflows of foreign funds from equities and debt markets exerted downside pressure on the currency and it touched all time low of 60.76-mark. r, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of However, release in CAD data from the government ahead of its release date which beat the estimates and led to appreciation in the Rupee in the last two trading session of the week. The currency touched a high of 59.20 in the last two days of the week and closed at 59.523 on Friday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.11,026.90 crores th ($1,852.15 million) as on 28 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.72,178.20 78.20 crores ($13,500.80 million) till 28 June 2013. UKs Nationwide House Prices fell to 0.3 percent in June from 0.4 percent in May.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3008

-0.2 0.2

-0.9

0.5

2.8

Dollar Index NIFTY

83.38

0.3

1.0

0.0

4.9

5842.2

2.8

3.1

-4.3

13.5

SENSEX

19395.8

2.8

3.3

-3.7

6.0

DJIA

14909.6

-0.8 0.8

0.7

-2.3

18.3

S&P

1606.3

-0.4 0.4

0.9

-3.2

20.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated around 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of strength in the DX. Further, The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2983 and closed at 1.3008 against the dollar on Friday. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of favourable economic data from the region coupled with bounce back in the global markets. German Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in May as against a rise of 2.7 percent in April. Japans Tankan Manufacturing Index rose to 4-mark 4 in Q2 of 2013 as against a decline of 8-level level in Q1 of 2013. Tankan NonNon Manufacturing Index increased by 6 points to 12-level 12 in second quarter of current year from 6-mark 6 in previous quarter.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 1 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices fell around 5 percent in the last week and fell to 34month low on account of decline in the SPDR gold holdings which has fallen 28 percent this year and is at the lowest level since February 2009. Further, strength in the DX along with uncertainty regarding Fed to pullback its stimulus spending exerted downside pressure on prices prices. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1180.71 80.71/oz and closed at $1233.14/oz in last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining 5 percent. Further, jewelers association decided to stop sales of bars and coins and support government in reducing CAD also acted as a negative factor. The commodity closed at Rs.25598/10 /10 gms on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 24830/10 gms in the last week week. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell further to 969.5 tonnes on 28th th June13, falling to the lowest level since February 2009. Over the year, SPDR Gold Trust holdings have declined 29 percent, with further pullback in holdings expected as investors shun the yellow metal metal. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1233.1 Prev. day 2.8 as on 28 June, 2013 WoW -4.9 MoM -11.4 YoY -22.8

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

24960.0

-3.8

-6.7

-5.8

-15.3

1192.0

-3.3

-8.0

-13.8

-25.4

$/oz

1223.8

1.0

-4.2

-12.4

-21.0

Rs /10 gms

25598.0

0.9

-5.0

-3.9

-13.9

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 19.6 40100.0 Prev day 6.3 -0.7

as on 28 June, 2013 WoW -2.3 -5.2 MoM -12.7 -10.2 YoY -28.5 -24.7

Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with mixed performance in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 2.3 percent in the last week. Additionally, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the prices. . The white metal touched a weekly low of $18.19/oz and closed at $19.61/oz in last trade of the week week. On the domestic front, prices fell 2.5 percent and closed at Rs.40,461/kg on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.38, Rs.38,536/kg. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell 0.8 percent last week to 9906 tonnes. However, on Monday the fund witnessed a sharp decline of 2 percent in holdings that slipped to 9882 tonnes and then recovered over the week. Month-to-date, date, iShares Silver Trust Holdings fell around 1 percent and year-to-date date are down about 2 percent

$/oz $/ oz

1886.0 19.5

1.3 0.0

-5.1 -0.2

-15.7 -13.2

-30.4 -29.5

Rs / kg

40461.0

4.3

-2.5

-7.4

-22.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
Precious metals prices in todays trade are expected to trade higher taking cues from bounce back in Fridays trade and is expected to continue today also on account of supportive buying seen at lower levels. However, decline in SPDR holdings will cap sharp gains in the prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 1, 2013 Support 1230/1223 25450/25300 19.45/19.20 40300/39800 Resistance 1247/1257 25800/26000 19.90/20.10 41200/41600
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 1 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 3.1 percent in the last week; taking cues from favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone which increased the expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Further, statement from Fed officials that stimulus spending will not be stopped until central banks forecast for inflation and job markets are met supported an upside in prices in first half of the week week. However, reemergence of concerns cerns regarding cut in the bond buying program capped gains in prices. Crude oil prices touched a weekly high of $97.82/bbl and closed at $96.56/bbl in last trading session of the week. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 3.4 percent as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,8 Rs.5,806/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5,867/bbl in the last week. . Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 104.1 96.6 Prev. day -0.2 -0.5 WoW 3.5 3.1 as on 28 June, 2013 MoM 1.5 3.3 YoY 10.3 24.3

$/bbl

102.2

-0.6

1.2

-0.3

4.5

Rs/bbl

5806.0

-0.7

3.4

10.2

24.5

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13)

as on 28 June, 2013

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices declined around 6.3 percent on the back of more than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Further, stronger DX exerted downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of forecast for warm weather conditions which will lead to increase in demand for air conditioners. Gas prices touched a weekly low of $3.526/mmbtu and closed at $3.566/mmbtu in last trade of the w week. In the Indian markets, prices fell around 5.2 percent and closed at Rs.215.30/mmbtu on Friday after touching a low of Rs. Rs.211.60/mmbtu in the last week. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data coupled with weak global markets. Further, expectations of rise in Euro Zone unemployment rate will exert downside pressure on prices prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation preciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 1, 2013 Support 95.10/94.10 5700/5640 Resistance 97.10/98.10 5820/5880

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.566 215.3

Prev. day -0.9 -0.2

WoW -6.33 -5.15

MoM -15.38 -7.60

YoY 29.44 39.71

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 1 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a mixed note in the last week on the back of concerns over the Fed to pullback its stimulus spending along with stronger DX. Further, rise in LME inventories scenario exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of bounce back in global markets coupled pled with favourable economic data from US and Euro Zone. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (June13) LME Nickel $/tonne 13737.0 -0.7 -2.5 -7.2 -18.2 Rs /kg 103.2 -0.4 -1.7 0.0 0.0 $/tonne 1775.0 0.2 -1.1 -4.9 -7.3 Rs/kg 401.5 -0.6 -1.4 -2.4 -7.4 $/tonne Last 6765.0 Prev. day 0.4 as on 28 June, 2013 WoW -1.2 MoM -13.8 YoY -12.6

Copper
Copper prices declined 1.2 percent in the last week on the back of uncertainty over the Fed to pullback its stimulus measures coupled with stronger DX. Additionally, data released from International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed that world copper is at a surplus and there is a decline in demand and increase in production which exerted downside pressure on prices. The red metal touched a weekly low of $6602/tonne and closed at $6765/tonne /tonne in last trading session of the week. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of favourable economic data from US and Euro Zone. On the domestic front, prices fell 1.5 percent and closed at Rs. 401.50/kg, on Friday after touching a low of Rs.393.3 30/kg in the last week. Copper Inventories On the LME inventories jumped marginally 0.1 percent to 665,775 tonnes and on the SHFE inventories fell 3.5 percent to 182,493 tonnes respectively. Outlook In todays trading session, we expect base metals to trade lower on account of weak global markets s coupled with drop in Chinese manufacturing data indicating a slow economic growth in worlds second largest economy. Further, expectations of rise in Euro Zone unemployment rate will add downside pressure on the prices prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp drop in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 1, 201 2013 Support 403/398 109.0/108.0 121.50/120.50 104.80/103.80 817/811 Resistance 409/412 110.70/111.50 123.20/124.20 106.50/107.50 830/840

(3 month) MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)
Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

817.7

-0.9

-2.4

-1.5

-11.7

$/tonne

2055.0

0.3

1.4

-3.4

9.6

Rs /kg

122.9

0.3

1.8

2.6

21.5

$/tonne

1855.0

0.3

0.3

-1.6

-1.3

Rs /kg

108.9

-0.1

0.5

4.4

5.0

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 28th June 665,775 5,435,600 187,488 1,061,475 198,300 27th June 667,425 5,442,475 187,644 1,057,700 198,000 Actual Change -1,650 -6,875 -156 3,775 300 (%) Change -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 1 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Tankan Manufacturing Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Manufacturing PMI HSBC Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Net Lending to Individuals m/m CPI Flash Estimate y/y Unemployment Rate ISM Manufacturing PMI Country US Japan Japan China China Euro Euro UK UK Euro Euro US Time (IST) 5:00am 5:20am 5:20am 6:30am 7:15am 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 7:30pm Actual 4 12 50.1 48.2 Forecast 3 12 50.1 48.3 48.9 47.8 51.3 1.4B 1.6% 12.3% 50.6 Previous -8 6 50.8 48.3 48.1 47.3 51.3 1.4B 1.4% 12.2% 49.0 Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High

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