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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 1, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update


Monday | July 1, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indias HSBC Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3-mark in June. European Unemployment Rate also rose to 12.1 percent in May. UKs Manufacturing PMI gained to 52.5-mark in the last month. European equities are trading higher today on the back of favorable manufacturing data from the region and less than estimated rise in Euro Zone unemployment rate. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading in the green. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased by 0.2 points to 50.3-mark in June as against a rise of 50.1level in May. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 50-mark in June as against a rise of 48.1-level in May. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.8 points to 49.1-level in last month from 47.3-level a month ago. European Unemployment Rate also rose to 12.1 percent in May from 12 percent a month ago. UKs Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.2 points to 52.5-mark in June as against a rise of 51.3-level in May. Net Lending to Individuals was at 1 billion Pounds in May from 1.3 billion Pounds a month ago. Spot gold prices are trading higher today by 0.5 percent on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, upbeat global markets also supported an upside in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1247.56/oz and hovered around $1239.59/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the base metals complex, Spot silver prices rose around 0.1 percent today. Additionally, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $20.09/oz and was trading at $19.63/oz till 4:30pm IST today. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX. The base metals group traded higher today on the back of favorable economic data from Euro Zone. Further, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat market sentiments supported an upside in the prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of mixed LME inventories scenario. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp gain in the prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices are trading higher around 0.5 percent today taking cues from positive manufacturing data from Euro Zone. Further, upbeat global markets along with weakness in the DX supported an upside in oil prices. On the domestic bourses, prices rose by 0.1 percent but appreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted sharp upside movement in prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 1 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5834.10 19352.48 13746.72 1851.57 15359.11

5904.35 19598.43 13862.71 1866.63 15468.12

5822.20 19347.57 13562.70 1850.03 15216.88

5898.85 19577.39 13852.50 1855.73 15216.88

0.97 0.94 1.28 -0.41 1.49


Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 1 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.41 1.3005 59.46

83.47 1.3059 59.52

83.22 1.30 58.956

83.275 1.3051 59.395 as at 4.30 pm 1 July 13

-0.12 0.33 -0.22


Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1232.99 1234.70 25769.00 19.59 28.23 40184 96.58 101.90 5757 6774.50 405.80 1855.25 109.60 2054 122.00 13750 821.20 1776.00 105.00

1247.56 1245.20 25789.0 20.09 0.2006 40431 97.21 103.11 5784 6895.00 412.40 1873.25 110.20 2080 123.30 13926 828.70 1793.00 105.30

1225.81 1234.70 25574.0 19.39 0.19375 39690 96.07 101.63 5712 6721.25 404.30 1848.25 109.30 2049 121.60 13700 818.50 1772.75 104.60

1239.59 1242.50 25740.00 19.63 0.1965 40245 97.02 102.69 5771 6886.00 411.75 1866.25 109.95 2072 122.95 13845 824.90 1784.25 105.00

0.52 1.53 0.28 0.10 1.02 0.09 0.48 0.52 0.14 1.79 1.27 0.61 0.23 0.80 0.57 0.79 0.12 0.52 -0.05

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update


Monday | July 1, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor for the dollar denominated commodities. Apart from that, base metals and crude oil prices will get support from expectations of rise in US manufacturing data and favorable manufacturing data from Euro Zone.

Technical Outook for evening session 1 July 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)


Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 25400 1202 39900 18.96 5690 95.3 209 6750 404 108.3 121.2 103.3 812 Support 1 25570 1221 40400 19.36 5740 95.95 212 6840 408 109 122 104.2 818 CMP 25741 1242.1 40855 19.68 5771 97.01 214.3 6892 412.1 110 122.95 105.05 825.7 Resistance1 25870 1253 41200 20.12 5800 97.4 217 6920 415 110.7 124 105.9 833 Resistance 2 26100 1272 41800 20.64 5850 98.35 220 6960 418 111.4 125 106.6 840

Important Events for Today


Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Tankan Manufacturing Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Manufacturing PMI HSBC Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Net Lending to Individuals m/m CPI Flash Estimate y/y Unemployment Rate ISM Manufacturing PMI Country US Japan Japan China China Euro Euro UK UK Euro Euro US Time (IST) 5:00am 5:20am 5:20am 6:30am 7:15am 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 7:30pm Actual 4 12 50.1 48.2 50.0 49.1 52.5 1.0B 1.6% 12.1% Forecast 3 12 50.1 48.3 48.9 47.8 51.3 1.4B 1.6% 12.3% 50.6 Previous -8 6 50.8 48.3 48.1 47.3 51.3 1.4B 1.4% 12.2% 49.0 Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High