Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Money
Economy &
Theory and Policy Finance
SEPTEMBER.2007
MIHIR RAKSHIT
products. 1 Our primary purpose in this paper being examination of the analytical
and policy issues relating to inflation in a country like India, we have left out the
intervening year (2005-06) when the year-on-year inflation was relatively mild (at
4.1 per cent) and in fact was the second lowest rate between 1994-95 and 2006-07.
2 Food price inflation was in fact no more than 2.6 per cent.
3 Driven primarily by hardening of prices of metals and metal products.
4 The wide difference between the yearly average and end-year WPI
inflation rates reflects two phases of inflation during the financial year. The first, the
April-August 04 phase, was marked by hardening of domestic prices, with WPI
inflation peaking at 8.7 per cent by end-August 04. The second, beginning from
September 04, saw an abatement of price pressure and a decline in WPI inflation
and its components except for the fuel price inflation.
5 The y-o-y WPI inflation rose by a full percentage point to 4.8 per cent
between April and May, 06, continued its upward journey to peak at 6.7 per cent in
the week ending on 27 January, 07, and declined to 5.7 per cent in the last week of
March, 07.
6 AL: Agricultural Labourers; RL: Rural Laboureres; IW: Industrial
opposite, with the CPI rates far exceeding the WPI inflation: in end-
February 2007, the y-o-y increases in WPI, CPI-IW, CPI-UNME, CPI-AL
Money
and CPI-RL were 6.1, 7.6, 7.8, 9.8 and 9.5 per cent respectively. This &
difference in the sign and magnitude of the gap between the WPI and Finance
CPI inflation rates in 2004-05 and 2006-07 reflects the relative signifi-
SEPTEMBER.2007
cance of different groups of products in (a) driving inflation during the
two periods; and (b) their weights in the WPI and CPI baskets. Prices of
primary articles have a weight of 48.5-73.0 in CPI,7 but only 22.0 in
WPI.8 In sharp contrast weights of fuel and manufactured goods prices
are much larger in WPI than in CPI. Remembering that increases in
For an appreciation
agricultural goods prices were quite modest in the earlier episode but
were at the double digit level in 2006-07, the sharp difference between of these policies it is
the WPI and CPI inflation rates in the two episodes is not difficult to
comprehend.9 useful to consider
In response to the emergence of inflationary pressure the
monetary and fiscal authorities undertook a series of measures for the official reading
reining in prices and containing “inflation expectations”. For an
appreciation of these policies it is useful to consider the official reading of the reasons
of the reasons behind the price increases and then see how the remedy
was related to the diagnosis. behind the price
CPI-UMME, CPI-AL and CPI-RL are 48.5, 52.6, 73.0 and 70.5 respectively.
8 Prices entering into CPI and WPI are not identical since apart from the
fact that while prices in the former are wholesale and that in the latter are retail, the
criteria for classifying the commodities under the two indices are different. Indeed,
there are many products prices of which are included in one, but not in the other
index (or indices). However, movements in prices of foods items tend to be quite
close to that of primary articles.
9 Indeed, on the basis of CPI-AL and CPI-RL figures, there was hardly any
inflation in 2004-05.
10 The views of the two official organs on the inflationary situation during
a year are set forth in FM’s annual Economic Surveys (ESs) and Reserve Bank of
India’s annual, quarterly and mid-term review of Macroeconomic and Monetary
Development (MMD). Reserve Bank’s Annual Reports also examine the nature of
the inflationary trends. However, Report on Currency and Finance, a major annual
publication of RBI, need not, it is stated, reflect the central bank’s official views on
the price situation and other subjects covered.
11 MMDs provide a much more detailed analysis of the price situation
than ESs. There is however no major difference between the approaches of the
monetary and fiscal authorities. 91
I C R A B U L L E T I N the major step in the analysis consists in taking stock of the y-o-y price
increases of different groups of products and estimating their contribu-
Money tion to the overall WPI or CPI inflation in the period under considera-
& tion.12 These y-o-y price increases in their turn are explained in terms
Finance of changes in demand or supply in the concerned markets. For an
analysis of the impact of these changes a distinction is made (it
SEPTEMBER.2007
seems13) between three categories of markets. The first consists of goods
like petroleum products, coal and fertiliser whose prices are fully
administered. The second group covers commodities in respect of
which neither price control nor quantitative restrictions on imports or
exports are in force. This group includes practically all manufactured
For the first group
products14 whose combined weight is the largest in WPI. Finally, in the
inflation if any is case of many agricultural commodities market prices are not fixed, but
their exports and imports are subject to quantitative controls. The
attributed to hikes in significance of this three-fold classification lies in the way the factors
governing price increases of the different groups of commodities are
their administered sought to be identified.
For the first group inflation if any is attributed to hikes in their
prices. Thus administered prices. Thus irrespective of international or domestic
demand-supply conditions in the market for crude oil, inflation in
irrespective of petroleum products is traced to upward revision in their prices effected
by the government.15 Again, since petroleum products are used directly
international or or indirectly as intermediate inputs in practically all industries, account
is also taken, using the input-output analysis, of the impact of such
domestic demand-
revisions on prices of other products and hence on overall inflation.16
supply conditions in Thus according to the Reserve Bank, “. . . in the absence of
countervailing policy intervention, . . . every US dollar increase in
the market for crude crude oil prices could potentially add 15 basis points to WPI inflation
as a direct effect and another 15 basis points as an indirect effect” (RBI,
oil, inflation in 2005). Hence according to such estimates, keeping domestic prices of
petro-products unchanged in the face of (say) a ten-dollar rise in crude
petroleum products oil prices, WPI inflation is prevented from jumping by as much as 300
basis points. Similarly for the inflationary effects of administered price
is traced to upward changes of coal or other commodities in this category of products.17
Inflation in prices of the second group of commodities is
revision in their
prices effected by 12 The contribution of the price of a product to (say) WPI inflation is
nothing but its inflation during the period times its weight in WPI. The sum of the
the government. contribution of all prices entering WPI is of necessity the WPI inflation.
13 The qualification is added since the RBI itself does not explicitly make
such a classification. But its analysis may perhaps be better appreciated in terms of
the three-fold grouping presented here.
14 Sugar and fertiliser being the major exceptions.
15 This is not to deny that changes in international prices affect govern-
of the effects of revision in other administered prices on WPI or CPI inflation; only
92 the direct impact of the revisions is taken note of in such cases.
explained in terms of (a) their price trends in the international market, I C R A B U L L E T I N
(b) changes in excise or customs duties on the products, and (c) appre-
ciation or depreciation of the exchange rate, though domestic demand
Money
pressure is also referred to in some instances. In other words, for the &
tradables which are free from quantitative restrictions, the difference Finance
between the international and domestic rates of inflation is viewed as
SEPTEMBER.2007
being governed by (b) and (c): to the extent excise and customs duties
are cut or the rupee appreciates, domestic price increases will be less
than that in the international market.
Finally, given the quantitative controls on trade, domestic
demand-supply conditions, especially the monsoon, are considered the
The RBI analysis of
main determinants of agricultural price inflation. Needless to say,
government policy changes concerning imports and exports of the price situation in
foodgrains or other farm products can raise or lower the inflationary
pressure in these markets; but with trade remaining relatively small in different markets of
relation to domestic output for most agricultural goods, climatic and
other supply side conditions are perceived to be by far the most impor- the domestic
tant determinants of inflation in primary product prices.
economy is also
Macroeconomic Factors
Though the major part of the analysis of both the ministry of preceded by an
finance and the Reserve Bank is devoted to sectoral (or commodity-
wise) price increases, account is also taken of the macroeconomic
examination of the
factors behind the overall inflationary pressure. In the context of the
signals and sources
increasing openness of the Indian economy the RBI analysis starts in
fact with a survey of the international inflationary scenario as also the if any of aggregate
conditions prevailing in major industrialised and emerging market
economies.18 High global growth; cyclical upswing in a number of demand pressure or
developed countries including Germany and Japan; rising world
commodity prices due to large demand from fast growing emerging overheating.
market economies, especially China; and overflowing liquidity in
international financial markets—all these are taken stock of for an
appreciation of how domestic inflation might be governed by macr-
oeconomic factors operating at the global level.
The RBI analysis of the price situation in different markets of
the domestic economy is also preceded by an examination of the signals
and sources if any of aggregate demand pressure or overheating. The
main indicators/factors considered in this connection are GDP growth;
capacity utilisation; infrastructural bottlenecks; growth of reserve
money, broad money and credit; increases in trade deficit along with
that in non-oil imports;19 wage pressure or rising profit margins of
international markets, especially those that loom large in the domestic WPI and CPIs.
19 A sharp rise in trade deficit driven by non-oil imports comes about
20 The other macroeconomic factor mentioned is the 6.6 per cent (nominal)
appreciation of the rupee helping to moderate the passthrough of the rise in prices of
94 petroleum and other products in the international market.
government control in force, for the other products the transmission of I C R A B U L L E T I N
the increase from the global to the domestic market was not immedi-
ate.21 In a lagged response to their hardening in the international
Money
market, coal prices were raised in June 2004, and petroleum prices &
were revised upward in three stages, in June, August and November, Finance
2004. Considering the large significance of these products as intermedi-
SEPTEMBER.2007
ate inputs in other industries, their direct plus indirect impact may be
taken to account for the lion’s share of domestic inflation; only a small
part of the increase in the general price level was accounted for by the
rise in vegetable oil and sugar prices.
The roots of the 2004-05 inflation were thus traced to interna-
The roots of the
tional supply shocks22 rather than domestic overheating; but for reining
in inflation and “inflation expectations” the Reserve Bank undertook a 2004-05 inflation
series of restrictive monetary measures: the cash reserve ratio (CRR)
was raised from 4.5 per cent by 0.25 percentage point on September 18, were thus traced to
2004 and again on October 2, 2004 by the same magnitude. This was
followed by a hike in the reverse repo rate on October 27, 2004 by 25 international supply
basis points to 4.75 per cent.23
The main anti-inflationary initiatives were however sectoral. shocks rather than
Urea prices were left unchanged even though they registered a 65 per
cent rise in the international market. The extent of hike in the adminis- domestic
tered prices of coal and petroleum products was considerably less than
their price increases abroad: domestic prices of coal and mineral oil
overheating; but for
rose by only 17 and 13.7 per cent respectively as against the doubling
reining in inflation
of global coal prices and a more than 50 per cent increase in prices of
the Dubai crude. Excise and customs duties on petroleum products were and “inflation
cut substantially, but even so there was substantial under-recovery of
costs at the new prices. A part of these costs was blown by public sector expectations” the
oil companies but major part was covered by the issue of oil bonds to
the losing concerns. Similar sector specific policies were extensively Reserve Bank
used for containing the passthrough of other prices. Cuts in customs and
excise duties on raw materials as also finished products limited the undertook a series
domestic iron and steel prices inflation to 21.3 per cent even through
their prices in the international market soared by 54.2 per cent. Other of restrictive
sector specific anti-inflationary measures included cuts in tariffs on
monetary measures.
vegetable oils, an increase in the quantum of free-sale sugar and a steep
hike in the margin for future trading of sugar.24
2004 the reverse repo indicates absorption and the repo injection of liquidity. Prior
to that date the meaning of the two terms was the opposite.
24 From 8 per cent to 30 per cent.
95
I C R A B U L L E T I N 2006-07 Inflation
External factors were not inconsequential for domestic inflation
Money during 2006-07, but unlike in the earlier period there was hardly any
& change in global crude oil and coal prices in this year. 25 Rather, the
Finance supply shock from the rest of the world was transmitted through a
sharp increase in agricultural prices and prices of metal and non-
SEPTEMBER.2007
metallic mineral products (especially cement), the first due to severe
shortfall in world output, the second to the high global growth in
general and the large Chinese demand in particular. However, much
more important this time was the operation of domestic factors.
The surge in international prices of farm products coincided with an
Indeed, despite the
adverse domestic supply situation in markets for wheat, pulses,
identification of oilseeds, cotton and other agricultural goods, and much more impor-
tantly, with the emergence of aggregate demand pressure in the
strong cyclical economy. As evidence of demand driven inflation in 2006-07, the RBI
refers to a whole host of macroeconomic developments. These include
upswing as the the 9.4 per cent GDP growth during the year coming on top of the 9.0
per cent growth recorded in 2005-06; signs of strained capacity utilisa-
major factor behind tion, rising pricing power of corporates along with indications of wage
pressure in some sectors; pick-up of non-oil import growth and widen-
the inflationary ing of trade deficit; the y-o-y growth of reserve money, broad money
and non-food credit to the tune of 23.7, 22.0 and 29.5 per cent respec-
pressure, fiscal tively; and the sharp rise in real estate, share and other asset prices.
In the context of the factors identified above, the rise in prices
intervention in
of primary products was ascribed to the adverse (sectoral) supply
individual markets shock, but inflation in other prices was viewed mainly as the outcome
of booming aggregate demand in the face of tightening capacity
was widespread. constraint in the non-agricultural sector. Accordingly the policy pack-
age adopted for tackling the 2006-07 inflation consisted of sectoral as
well as macroeconomic measures. Indeed, despite the identification of
strong cyclical upswing as the major factor behind the inflationary
pressure, fiscal intervention in individual markets was widespread. For
curbing inflation in prices of primary articles the government permitted
imports (along with substantial cuts in tariffs26) of wheat, pulses,
oilseeds as well as edible oil, maize and sugar.27 These measures for
augmenting imports were supplemented by (a) bans on export of wheat,
pulses, and skimmed milk powder; (b) increased supply of wheat under
25 Starting from USD 60.9 per barrel in March 2006, the average crude
price peaked at USD 72.5 in July 2006, displayed a downward trend thereafter and
reached USD 60.6 in March 2007.
26 Thus private imports of wheat were allowed at 5 per cent duty from
June 2006 and then at zero duty from September 2006. Duty free imports of pulses,
sugar and maize were also permitted. But in all these cases imports were subject to
some ceiling.
27 This was from June 22, 2006 when sugar prices exhibited strong price
minimum support price (MSP) for wheat;28 and (d) imposition of bans
on futures market trading in wheat, tur and urad.29
Money
Sector specific anti-inflationary fiscal measures were also &
adopted in markets for non-agricultural commodities. For purposes Finance
of reducing manufacturing costs and the price pressure in selected
SEPTEMBER.2007
markets, the government reduced customs duties on inorganic chemi-
cals, non-ferrous metals, cement,30 capital goods and project imports.
Of much greater significance in this respect was the policy relating to
pricing of petroleum products. With the rise in international prices of
crude oil during the first quarter of the financial year, in June 2006 the
It is worth noting
government reduced customs duties on petrol and diesel from 10.0 to
7.5 per cent, and raised their prices by Rs. 2 and Re. 1 respectively. that throughout the
However, in November 2006, the petrol and diesel prices were reduced
to their pre-June levels and in February 2007 their prices were slashed period the
further, by Rs. 2 and Re. 1 respectively. It is worth noting that through-
out the period the administered prices of the products fell far short of administered prices
their costs. The shortfall was the largest for kerosene and LPG whose
prices had been kept unchanged since 2004. of the products fell
As is to be expected, macroeconomic policies adopted for
controlling inflation were much more important in 2006-07 than in the far short of their
earlier episode. Between January 24 31 and July 25, 2006, the reverse
repo rate was raised from 5.25 per cent to 6.00 per cent in three stages,
costs. The shortfall
with an increase of 25 basis points at each stage. The hike in the repo
was the largest for
rate was steeper and effected over a longer period: the rate was raised
by 150 basis points to 7.75 per cent in six stages between January 2006 kerosene and LPG
to March 2007. The increase in these policy rates were backed by hikes
in CRR and large scale open market sale of government including MSS whose prices had
(Market Stabilisation Scheme) bonds.32 The need for these measures
been kept
28
unchanged since
So that the Food Corporation of India (FCI) can raise the amount
procured and effectively intervene if necessary in the market through the public
distribution system or open market sales. 2004.
29 Since such trades, it is argued, can be highly speculative and put pressure
on spot prices.
30 From April 3, 2007 import of portland cement was exempted for
countervailing duty and special additional customs duty. This came on top of the
exemption from the basic customs duty, announced in January, 2007.
31 In January when both the repo and reverse repo rates were raised, the
WPI inflation rate (at 4.2 per cent) was fairly moderate and within the Reserve
Bank’s comfort zone. The hike was mostly a response to international developments
including the successive increases in the federal fund rates by the Federal Reserve
Bank of the USA.
32 Unlike in the case of ordinary government securities, proceeds from the
issue of these bonds are credited in a separate account and not available to the
government to finance its expenditure. Hence, issue of MSS bonds automatically
reduces the supply of reserve money in the system. The Market Stabilisation Scheme
has been in operation since April 2004 when in the absence of adequate government
securities at its disposal the Reserve Bank was faced with the problem of sterilising
the large scale inflow of foreign funds. 97
I C R A B U L L E T I N assumed urgency with the high growth of reserve money and excess
liquidity in the system, driven by large inflow of foreign capital. The
Money cumulative increase in CRR effected by the Reserve Bank amounted to
& 150 basis points, from 5.00 to 6.50 per cent, between December 2006
Finance and April 2007. The successive increases in CRR helped to absorb bank
resources totalling Rs. 43,000 crore. The quantitative significance of
SEPTEMBER.2007
sale of MSS bonds in sucking up liquidity from the system was also
considerable: as much as Rs. 23,894 crore of reserve money were
withdrawn33 through this route between February 1 and March 23,
2007.
Though the hikes in the policy rates and CRR were fairly steep
The official analysis
and sales of MSS bonds substantial, they proved inadequate, in the face
of and the measures of burgeoning foreign capital inflows, to moderate the growth of money
and credit. Hence the Reserve Bank, as in 2004-05, moderated some-
adopted to tackle the what its purchase of foreign currency and let the rupee appreciate,34
albeit mildly.
2004-05 and the
II. Some Analytical and Policy Issues
2006-07 inflation The official analysis of and the measures adopted to tackle the
2004-05 and the 2006-07 inflation raise a whole host of issues, both
raise a whole host analytical and prescriptive. These may be posed in terms of some
basic, inter-related questions that a mainstream (neo-classical)
of issues, both macroeconomist would be inclined to ask on a perusal of Section I.
analytical and 1. Why should price increases (following, say, a one-off increase
in crude prices) which reflect adjustment to a new equilibrium
prescriptive. These situation and are not of a continuing nature be regarded as
inflation? Do such price increases require any policy response?
may be posed in The questions do not amount to splitting hair,35 since the
adverse consequences of inflation arise from unanticipated and
terms of some
continuing inflation, not from an increase in prices to their
basic, inter-related equilibrium levels.
2. Does not the analysis or diagnosis of inflation in terms of the
questions that a behaviour of prices of particular commodities or product
mainstream
macroeconomist 33 It may be noted that the negative impact of absorption of (say) Rs. 100
crore through the MSS route on broad money supply is larger than an equal amount
would be inclined to of (first round) absorption of bank resources through a CRR hike. In the first case,
the fall in broad money supply equals Rs. 100 crore times the money multiplier; but
ask on a perusal of in the second case the fall will be less than Rs. 100 crore as the initial decline in bank
deposit and credit is moderated through an increase in reserve money in the
commercial banking system (as the public tries to reduce their holding of currency in
Section I. line with the fall in bank deposits).
34 Exchange rate appreciation, it is interesting to note, does not figure in
the Reserve Bank’s list of measures for containing actual inflation or inflation
expectations.
98
35 Since one may be tempted to dismiss the first question on the ground
indirectly in
36 In 1997-98, the fuel price inflation was 13.7 per cent; but the onset of
practically all demand deficiency in manufacturing in the Indian economy as also in the crisis
ridden East Asian countries kept the overall inflation rate at a moderate 4.5 per
cent. In 2000-01 the WPI inflation at 4.9 per cent was relatively low in the context
industries. of the 15.0 per cent inflation in fuel prices; the reason in this case lay in the bumper
agricultural crop driving down the primary product prices (by 0.4 per cent), a unique
phenomenon during the 12-year period.
37 So that the feedback from the rest of the world to developments in the
formed part of the inter-industry matrix and labour would have been the only basic
input.
40 i.e., net of intermediate use of its own output in the process of produc-
100 tion. The net output of any industry is available for meeting the final demand for
the industry’s production, by way of consumption, investment and exports.
prices, yield a horizontal aggregate supply (AS) schedule41 showing I C R A B U L L E T I N
that the price level P, the weighted average of all prices, remains
unchanged at different levels of output. The aggregate demand AD is
Money
however downward sloping since a fall in P raises (a) the trade &
balance through a depreciation of the real exchange rate; 42 and (b) the Finance
supply of money in real terms. The horizontal AS along with the
SEPTEMBER.2007
downward sloping AD yields the equilibrium output and the price level.
Now consider the effect of a rise in oil prices in the interna-
tional market. In the absence of any government intervention, AS shifts
upward, the extent of the shift being greater, the higher the ratio of oil
to wage cost in the production of various goods and the larger the At any given
weights in P of the more oil intensive products. Thus with no change
in aggregate demand, the equilibrium output level falls and the rise in exchange rate an oil
P equals the shift in AS on account of the oil price hike. However, in
view of the relatively inelastic demand for petroleum products an oil price hike reduces
shock raises the country’s net import bill43 which together with the
operation of the foreign trade multiplier effects a fall in aggregate aggregate demand.
demand, i.e., shifts AD to the left. This reinforces the output reducing
But since the
effect of the oil price shock, but the magnitude of the price increase is
still governed by the effect operating through costs of production. exchange rate tends
Under normal conditions however AS is upward rising,44 not
horizontal. Since an oil price hike shifts AS upward and AD leftward, to depreciate due to
the effect of the hike is to raise P and reduce output even when AS is
upward rising; but the magnitude of the effects on both prices and the shock, there is
output are now lower.45 Indeed, when AS is fairly steep and AD rela-
tively flat, the effect on output is still unambiguously negative, but in also a favourable
equilibrium the price level may register a fall!46 This suggests that the
consequences of an oil price shock will tend to vary with the state of impact on domestic
the macroeconomy. At lower levels of output, aggregate demand is
generally less price responsive, while AS tends to be flatter. Hence, the
demand.
shock will have a larger impact on prices and a smaller effect on
output when the economy operates with larger excess capacity.
What if the central bank adopts a hands-off policy in the
are fixed. Horizontal AS also subsumes that prices are set on a mark-up basis—not
an unreasonable assumption in a demand deficient economy, where prices of the two
basic inputs do not change in response to variations in their levels of employment.
42 So that aggregate demand goes up by the incremental trade balance
will be diminishing returns to the marginal productivity of the two basic (variable)
inputs, labour and oil. This along with the tendency for money wages to rise with
increases in employment makes AS positively sloped.
45 Given the slope and shift of AD.
46 The economic explanation is that, while a flatter AD induces a larger
fall in output, the decline in price for a given fall in production is larger, when AS is
steeper. 101
I C R A B U L L E T I N foreign currency market?47 In this case the factors affecting the macr-
oeconomic variables do not always pull in the same direction. At any
Money given exchange rate an oil price hike reduces aggregate demand. But
& since the exchange rate tends to depreciate due to the shock, there is
Finance also a favourable impact on domestic demand. The most plausible
result, as we show in the Appendix, is that exchange rate flexibility
SEPTEMBER.2007
moderates the fall in output and the extent of real exchange rate
appreciation, but magnifies the increase in the level of domestic
prices.48
47 Note that in order to keep the exchange rate fixed, the central bank
needs to sell foreign currency if the trade (or rather, current account) deficit exceeds
the net capital inflow. At the same time it is necessary to undertake some open
market purchase of securities so that money supply is not affected.
48 Since the output fall is smaller and the nominal exchange rate goes up in
equilibrium.
49 The acronym for non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.
50 In view of the fact that oil is an imported input, the fall in GDP will be
102 larger than that in output (as given by the aggregate production function).
the oil intensity of domestic output and the lower the elasticity of I C R A B U L L E T I N
51 Strictly speaking, for such inflation the growth in money supply has to
persistently exceed the full employment growth of the economy times the income
elasticity of demand for real balances. 103
I C R A B U L L E T I N implausible case, the adjustment could be instantaneous52 so that as
soon as there is a hike in oil prices, the general price level and other
Money macro variables jump to their new equilibrium values, but there is no
& inflation thereafter.53
Finance Does the adjustment rate matter, and if so, how? The central
bank and the fiscal authorities in India seem to think that a low infla-
SEPTEMBER.2007
tion spread over a long period is preferable to the one which starts with
a bang, but loses its steam quite rapidly: recall in this connection
(a) the government policy of controlling prices of petro-products and
raising them slowly when the overall inflation has turned mild; and
(b) the Reserve Bank’s pursuit of dear money policy when the WPI
The central bank
inflation, though high, was palpably the fall-out of the oil price shock.
and the fiscal However, since the misalignment of prices from their equilibrium
configuration generally entails allocative inefficiency, the economic
authorities in India costs of slow adjustment of prices need not be negligible. The point to
note here is that one needs to distinguish between (a) price increases
seem to think that a that arise in the course of adjustment of different markets to a new
equilibrium; and (b) inflation that originates in a fundamental imbal-
low inflation spread ance and hence is likely to be persistent. Remembering that the price
increase due to an oil price shock is of the first category, let us consider
over a long period is the economic consequences of fiscal and monetary policies adopted in
response to such shocks.
preferable to the one
On How Not to Tackle Oil Price Shocks
which starts with a
The most widely used policy followed in India for containing
bang, but loses its oil price inflation has been freezing petroleum prices and setting them
below costs. Since apart from their macroeconomic impact such
steam quite rapidly. measures have important allocative consequences, it is instructive to
examine first the implications of the policy for a full employment
economy.
The most important effect of oil price control, our earlier
analysis suggests, will be a reduction in the country’s full employment
GDP.54 The reasons are several. First, given the level of employment
and the real exchange rate, use of oil in the production process will
exceed the level at which its value marginal productivity equals its
marginal cost to the economy.55 This excess use of oil involves a loss of
GDP, remembering that the gap between the import cost and the value
of the marginal productivity of oil reflects the reduction in GDP at the
relevant information.
53 In view of the jump there is a discontinuity in the time path of P so that
an intermediate input imported from abroad, GDP equals aggregate output less the
cost of oil used in the production process.
104 55 Both measured in terms of some common denominator.
margin. Second, the oil price freeze prevents adjustment towards the I C R A B U L L E T I N
(new) optimal oil-labour ratio and results in a fall in GDP at any given
level of output. Third, the increase in the oil import bill due to opera-
Money
tion of these two factors causes a real exchange rate depreciation and &
hence a reduction in GDP measured in terms of domestic output as well Finance
as in the country’s command over imported consumption or investment
SEPTEMBER.2007
goods at any given level of GDP. Fourth, when the direct-cum-indirect
oil intensities of various goods and services differ widely and to the
final users their substitution possibilities are not negligible, the adverse
consequences of oil subsidy would be much larger than is suggested
from our analysis of a one-commodity, full employment economy.56
More significant
Fifth, given the distortionary and other costs of taxes in a country like
India, the GDP loss on account of (tax-financed) subsidisation of oil can than the short-term
be fairly large.
More significant than the short-term GDP loss are perhaps the GDP loss are
longer term costs of an oil price freeze. Financing the subsidy bill
through oil bonds, as is done in India, only postpones the distortionary perhaps the longer
costs of taxes and transfers, but does not avoid them. What is no less
important to recognise, the bond issues tend to reduce investment and term costs of an oil
saving, and hence the growth potential of the economy.57 The growth
debilitating effects of distortions can be considerable since the substitu- price freeze.
tion possibilities between factors through shifts in technology as well as
invention of new techniques are much greater in the long than in the
Financing the
short run.
subsidy bill through
What about the increase in the general price level or inflation?
Our earlier analysis suggests that, given the supply of money and its oil bonds, as is
growth, the oil subsidy will in fact cause both a jump in the general
price level and an increase in the rate of inflation, the first through a done in India, only
fall in (short-term) full employment GDP, the second through a reduc-
tion in growth. No wonder, common sense or partial analysis can be postpones the
quite misleading for analysing the behaviour of macro variables like
Inflation or GDP. distortionary costs
The second set of policies deployed for controlling petro-
inflation consists of monetary tightening. Let us consider the effects of of taxes and
the policy in a full employment economy. A tight money policy may
transfers, but does
imply two things: (a) a one-shot reduction in money supply with no
change in its growth rate thereafter; and (b) a cutback in the growth not avoid them.
rate of money supply. Remembering that an oil price shock causes a
fall in full employment GDP, the price level will tend to go up in
resources towards the optimum (less oil intensive) basket of production and
consumption. It is important to recognise that even if the technical input coefficients
are fixed in the short run, the substitution possibilities in consumption and invest-
ment are considerable.
57 Recall that we are considering the effects of bond issues for providing
crawling price level slows down optimal reallocation of resources under changing
demand or supply side factors, given the relatively small downward flexibility of
some wages and prices.
59 e.g., those relating to exchange rate and current account deficit.
60 Compared with what would have occurred in the absence of the price
106 freeze.
rium. Again, since the output decline is less when the subsidy is I C R A B U L L E T I N
financed through bonds rather than taxes, the case for the oil price
policy pursued by the government may appear open and shut. Unfortu-
Money
nately, the strength of the argument is more apparent than real. &
Recall that freezing oil prices reduces a country’s potential Finance
income and consumption in the short as well as the long run. The fact
SEPTEMBER.2007
that the actual output is less than its potential is no ground for follow-
ing wasteful policies, e.g., expenditure on digging holes and filling
them up, for boosting production. The most important point to note
here is that for dealing with macroeconomic problems, e.g., demand
deficiency or inflation, it is generally preferable to rely on overall fiscal
Apart from the fact
and monetary policies,61 not to tinker with sectoral prices. Only when
the price increase is likely to cause serious hardship to the indigent and that all delays in
the government cannot directly mitigate the hardship through income
transfer is there a case for providing some subsidy. Anyway, such making domestic oil
subsidy is to be on some essential item of poor man’s consumption like
kerosene, not intermediate inputs or products purchased by the rela- prices conform to
tively well off.
What about the rise in prices in the absence of any subsidy? A their international
one-off increase in the general price level (P), as already emphasised,
does not constitute inflation or entail the adverse effects of a continuing counterparts enlarge
rise in prices. If for some reason the government does not want a rise in
P even when it is one-off, it is much more sensible to effect a propor-
distortionary costs,
tionate cutback in all indirect taxes,62 rather than subsidising oil or
the aforementioned
cutting duties on imports of petro-products. Such an across-the-board
duty cut avoids inefficiency in resource use, including distortions in timing of price
imports and exports. The conclusion is inescapable that sectoral
intervention is generally a poor substitute of overall policies in dealing revisions is
with demand deficiency or inflation.
Our analysis also suggests the inappropriateness of government likely to be
policies relating to the timing of oil price revisions. These revisions are
made with a view to keeping the increase in the general price level counterproductive.
moderate: the government tends to raise prices of petroleum products63
when inflation has slowed down, but keeps them unchanged in periods
of relatively high inflation though international oil prices might have
hardened meanwhile.64 Apart from the fact that all delays in making
domestic oil prices conform to their international counterparts enlarge
distortionary costs, the aforementioned timing of price revisions is
likely to be counterproductive. When high inflation originates in
sionary one.
There are several flaws in the above line of reasoning. Recall
Money
that the significance of inflation expectations is underlined in the &
literature in the context of the time inconsistency problem (Kydland and Finance
Prescott, 1977). The problem arises when the central bank seeks to
SEPTEMBER.2007
raise output above its NAIRU level through an expansionary monetary
policy. Given a low expected inflation rate formed on the basis of past
experience (or rather, the central bank’s revealed preference for low
inflation), the expansionary policy will succeed in raising employment
and output, but only at the cost of a rise in inflation above its expected
Given a low
rate. This success is due to the unanticipated rise in inflation or policy
surprise: had inflation been fully anticipated, there would have been no expected inflation
change in output or any other real variable in the system. If the central
bank persists with such measures, economic agents would soon learn its rate formed on the
policy stance and revise their inflation expectations so that the economy
ends up suffering from a rise in inflation with no increase in output and basis of past
employment above their NAIRU levels.
Two crucial features of the foregoing analysis deserve especial experience (or
attention. First and the most fundamental, economic agents learn from
experience and are rational. Second and related to the first, they also rather, the central
know how the economy operates under given conditions.67 If so, in the
absence of any central bank intervention following an oil price shock,
bank’s revealed
rational economic agents, knowing their AD-AS model, would expect
preference for low
(a) the price increases (if any) to taper off over the adjustment period;
and (b) output and employment to fall in the short run. In other words, inflation), the
the oil price induced price increase would not generate inflation
expectations. Indeed, economic agents would also know that at the new expansionary policy
equilibrium configuration, though prices of oil intensive products would
be higher, those of other goods and services would tend to fall. will succeed in
One can go further and indicate the response of rational
economic agents when the central bank invariably follows a raising employment
contractionary monetary policy whenever the WPI inflation goes above
some targeted level, even though the increase may be due to a sectoral and output, but only
shock and the economy demand deficient. Pursuit of such a policy is
at the cost of a rise
likely to make economic agents lower their expectations regarding the
economy’s average capacity utilisation and employment level over the in inflation above its
business cycles. Such expectations on the part of investors cannot but
act as a damper on their plans for longer term capital accumulation expected rate.
and effect a slowdown in economic growth.
67 Note that the time inconsistency problem arises when the central bank
68 Indeed, the weights of primary product prices in both WPI and CPIs are
much larger than that of oil. While the weights of fuel and mineral oils in WPI are
14.2 and 7.0 respectively, the weight of primary products is 22.0 and that of food
articles 15.4. With the inclusion of manufactured food products, the weight of
composite primary articles goes up to 37.7 and that of food items to 26.9. Needless
to say, in CPIs, especially in CPI-AL and CPI-RL, the weight of food articles is
overwhelming.
110
69 Due to the rise in prices of both primary articles and non-agricultural
products.
characterised by (i) a rise in prices of both agricultural and non- I C R A B U L L E T I N
72 Which market forces alone will fail to ensure in view of the two factors
just noted.
73 A la the efficiency wage hypothesis, at the floor rate the cost per unit of
effective labour is minimised. A large enough demand for labour can push wages
above the floor rate; but excess supply of labour cannot pull down wages below this
rate. 113
I C R A B U L L E T I N the produce of, the non-agricultural sector. With relatively sticky
money wages and prices, the short run effect of a fall in demand on
Money NO will be to reduce its output and employment. In NU though money
& wages and prices are flexible. Given the constant corn wage rate the
Finance rise in the ratio of food to NU product prices causes a fall in wage
employment along with a rise in self employment or unemployment.
SEPTEMBER.2007
The important point to note in this connection is that though output loss
due to fall in wage employment in NO and NU are likely to be large,
of no less consequence for social welfare is the loss of real income due
to increase in unemployment and self-employment, remembering that
both unemployment and involuntary self-employment entail inadequate
The solution to the
consumption and a decline in the current as well as the future produc-
problem lies in a tive capacity of workers.
The impact of an agricultural supply shock noted above is
two-fold policy accompanied with a rise in prices, but not inflation, so long as money
supply is kept constant. But absence of continuing inflation is a poor
initiative: along with consolation for the rise in the incidence of unemployment and hunger.
The solution to the problem lies in a two-fold policy initiative: along
management of food with management of food supply it is also necessary to adopt sector
specific fiscal and monetary measures. As in the earlier instance, one
supply it is also can hardly overemphasise the need for food subsidy and FCI sale of
foodgrains in the open market along with special employment genera-
necessary to adopt tion programmes in rural areas. The monetary instruments required
under this situation are also largely sectoral in nature. A harvest failure
sector specific fiscal
forces farmers to default on their debt dues and makes them ineligible
and monetary from formal credit for production or consumption. Similar is the
consequence for people engaged in NU. The result is that not only a
measures. large number of farmers and small producers find it difficult to meet
their basic consumption requirement, but credit crunch poses a serious
obstacle to their production activities. Hence even when the overall
monetary policy may have to be restrictive for preventing a sharp rise
in prices, it is necessary to ensure supply of production loans or credit
for working capital.74 This in fact has been the avowed policy stance of
the Reserve Bank even in the post-reforms period. Though official
documents do not betray awareness of the analytical foundations of
supply management or ensuring production loans for purposes of
controlling inflation,75 the fiscal and monetary authorities in India
have long been following some of the important structuralist policy
prescriptions.76
developing economy, a cutback on production loans tends to add to the supply side
failure and the inflationary pressure (Rakshit, 1987).
75 Note that these measures figure nowhere in the mainstream literature on
inflation.
76 Hence our reference at the beginning to the Molier character who was
114 pleasantly surprised to discover that he had been talking prose all his life.
V. Excess Demand and Anti-inflationary Policy I C R A B U L L E T I N
in the domestic
market. 79 So that domestic price ratios of tradables are close to their international
counterparts. With duty cuts on selected products the two sets of price ratios diverge
and the composition of both domestic output and absorption become suboptimum.
80 Since the duty cuts are on intermediate goods, the actual output vector
of final goods will be forced below the country’s production possibility frontier.
81 What about the argument that a sharp rise in steel or cement prices will
82
authorities seldom
Or falls, as happened in the case of sugar during the later part of 2006-07.
83 In its analysis and policy statements the Reserve Bank, like the structur-
alists, emphasises (a) the crucial role of agriculture in containing inflation in a intervene to curb or
country like India; and (b) the need for ensuring the supply of productive investment
even while contractionary policies are required to be pursued. However, except for boost aggregate
the priority sector credit requirement, which is still in force, no RBI policy is directly
related to agricultural production or growth. Nor can the Reserve Bank ensure,
under the liberalised regime, supply of credit for “productive investment” when there
demand.
is a monetary squeeze. This is apart from the fact that to be anti-inflationary, a
monetary policy needs to reduce (long-term) investment demand.
84 The behaviour of most central banks appears to be in conformity with
the Taylor rule (Taylor, 1993) under which the change in the central bank’s policy
rate is related negatively to the output gap (the gap between potential and actual
output), and positively to the inflation gap (the gap between the actual and
targeted or optimal inflation). A one percentage point rise in inflation under this rule
calls for a rise in the policy rate by more than one percentage point so that there is
an increase in the real rate of interest.
85 While no estimates are available for the output gap, that for unemploy-
ment are provided at irregular yearly intervals by NSS and hence are of little use to
the central bank for anti-cyclical policies. 117
I C R A B U L L E T I N banks whose policies are guided more by the aggregate demand-supply
imbalance than by sectoral or transitory price pressure. 86
Money Again, unlike the central banks in countries like the USA or the
& UK, the Reserve Bank, apart from its policy rates, also uses a number
Finance of other instruments that have a much more direct impact on the supply
of money and credit. Indeed, as anti-inflationary instruments hikes in
SEPTEMBER.2007
CRR or open market purchases of government dated securities87
including MSS bonds were no less significant than upward revisions in
the repo or reverse repo rates during the latest inflationary experience.
The reasons behind the Reserve Bank’s catholicity in its choice
of monetary instruments are worth examining. In developed economies
Again, unlike the
with deep and extensive financial markets, the impact of a change in
central banks in short-term rate on the longer-term ones tends to be significant. There
are also several routes through which the interest rate changes affect
countries like the aggregate demand. Apart from investment, household consumption, as
the US experience demonstrates, is significantly affected by softening or
USA or the UK, the hardening of interest rates. This comes about through the wealth
effect88 and the effect on the consumers’ ability to borrow and spend
Reserve Bank, apart against the value of their houses. Finally, with no control on capital
movements and absence of central bank intervention in the foreign
from its policy rates, currency market, the impact of changes in policy rates on aggregate
demand through an appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate
also uses a number can also be considerable.
The above mentioned channels through which short-term
of other instruments
policy rates affect aggregate demand are nearly absent or choked in the
that have a much Indian economy. In view of gross underdevelopment of the private bond
market, extensive recourse to self-financing along with external com-
more direct impact mercial borrowing by big and medium corporates in recent years, and
relatively small share of bank funds earmarked for long-term credit,89
on the supply of changes in policy rates do not on their own have much of an impact on
long term investment. Add to that the fact that loans against houses are
money and credit. extremely difficult to secure 90 and that the Reserve Bank’s management
prevents capital flows from having a commensurate impact on domestic
demand—and it is not difficult to see why hikes in repo or reverse repo
rates unaided by other measures do not constitute a potent anti-infla-
mostly confined to purchases and sales of treasury bills for making effective the
policy rate which is an overnight or an extremely short-term rate. In India however
purchases and sales of long-dated government securities constitute an important
monetary policy instrument.
88 As the prices of houses and shares change with variations in interest
rates.
89 Despite the diversification of the financial sector since 1991, banks
with the ministry of finance. Our purpose here is not to apportion credit or blame
between the two policy makers.
92 Accretion of foreign currency reserves amounted to as much as USD46.8
billion during 2006-07 and USD 14.2 billion in April-June, 2007. The former
amounted to about 4.7 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2006-07.
93 Above the full employment saving level.
119
I C R A B U L L E T I N long run. The rupee was, to be sure, allowed to appreciate by about 9
per cent against the United States dollar (USD) between April 06 and
Money June 07; but the appreciation of the trade weighted real exchange rate
& was much smaller. Indeed, in the context of the urgent need for large
Finance scale infrastructural as well as agricultural investment while keeping
inflation in check, an addition of close to USD 71 billion to the coun-
SEPTEMBER.2007
try’s already overflowing foreign exchange reserves cannot but appear
contrary to economic reasoning.
Relying on exchange rate appreciation for absorption of capital
inflows and reducing inflationary pressure is not however problem free.
There is a danger of overshooting of the real exchange rate above what
Indeed, in the
is warranted by the country’s long term economic fundamentals. This is
context of the urgent likely to be so since the major part of capital flows (consisting of FIIs)
is driven by short term considerations or herd behaviour. Second, an
need for large scale appreciation of the exchange rate by itself is unlikely to promote
investments in infrastructure or in the farm sector, characterised as they
infrastructural as are by both indivisibilities and large external benefits (Rakshit, 2006a).
The solution to the problem is two-fold and requires coordination of
well as agricultural fiscal and monetary policies. It is important to discourage FIIs and
ensure that foreign capital flows are relatively stable and long term. At
investment while the same time, on the basis of the country’s (full employment) saving
potential and availability of long-term external finance, the govern-
keeping inflation in ment needs to support investments which add significantly to the
country’s growth potential, but do not yield commensurate return to
check, an addition
private investors. The two-pronged policy will not require a sharp rise
of close to USD 71 in the real exchange rate94 and go a long way in promoting non-
inflationary growth.
billion to the
Inflation Measures and their Policy Relevance
country’s already An important problem facing central banks everywhere relates
to which inflation to track for monetary tightening or loosening. In
overflowing foreign India while deciding on anti-inflationary measures, the Reserve Bank
focuses almost exclusively on the WPI inflation rate. In most countries
exchange reserves however it is the CPI inflation which the central banks consider rel-
evant for purposes of setting their policy rates. In the United States the
cannot but appear
Federal Reserve Bank’s preferred indicator of overheating is “core
contrary to inflation” which is nothing but the CPI inflation shorn of volatile items
like food and petroleum prices. Given such diversity of central bank
economic practices, it is important to examine whether the Reserve Bank’s choice
of the WPI inflation is the right one.
reasoning. The issue would not have been of much practical significance
had the different rates of inflation been close to one another. In the
94 In the process of bridging the infrastructural gap, the lion’s share of long
95 Along with changes in their nominal incomes and wages. If the past
experience shows that money wages tend to lag far behind CPI-RL inflation, it may
by itself be a good indicator for prompt policy initiatives.
96 i.e., the rate at which the ex ante supply of labour would equal the
current level (with no divergence between the actual and expected rate of inflation).
97 Of a continuing nature, which the mainstream theory is primarily
nised consumer price index may offer some solution to the problem. 123
I C R A B U L L E T I N sectoral and governed by an increase in demand for some categories of
skilled workers. In fact, in most cases rising demand for goods leads to
Money profit rather than wage inflation. Or more accurately, it is profit
& inflation which drives wage inflation. Under these conditions, a pro-
Finance ducer price index, encompassing both goods and services, would be a
more reliable indicator for monetary policy action.*
SEPTEMBER.2007
* For the goods entering into it WPI can serve as a producer price index;
but since the larger part of production is left out in estimating WPI, it fails to
124 provide a good measure of the aggregate demand pressure.
and runs contrary to one of the most fundamental tenets of I C R A B U L L E T I N
101 With the actual output exceeding the NAIRU level. 125
I C R A B U L L E T I N tively price inelastic, the distortionary costs of food subsidy
would be minor compared with that of subsidy on petroleum or
Money other intermediate products. What is much more important to
& recognise, in view of the strong consumption-productivity
Finance nexus at low levels of income, output and employment in the
unorganised sector, which accounts for the lion’s share of the
SEPTEMBER.2007
country’s labour absorption, are crucially dependent on food
supply, or rather, the ratio of food to other prices.102 Indeed,
sans an effective (supply-side) intervention in the food market,
macroeconomic measures would be of little avail: while
expansionary policies would strengthen a price-wage inflation-
The widely accepted
ary spiral, a monetary or fiscal squeeze can stabilise the price
argument that level only at the expense of large scale unemployment, GDP
loss and a sharp rise in the incidence of poverty.
unless nipped in the 6. When an oil or some other sectoral shock raises WPI, but the
actual GDP is below its potential, monetary tightening is
bud any short-term suboptimal. Apart from the fact that the policy worsens the
problem of unemployment and excess capacity, it needs to be
price increase can recognised that such inflation is transitory and peters off as
WPI approaches its new equilibrium level. The widely accepted
induce inflation argument that unless nipped in the bud any short-term price
increase can induce inflation expectations and hence trigger off
expectations and a cumulative increase in prices, does not stand up to close
scrutiny. The argument presumes that economic agents are not
hence trigger off a
rational; do not learn from experience; or have little notion of
cumulative increase how the macroeconomy works. Indeed, if agents know that at
the first sign of a rise in WPI, whatever be its source,
in prices, does not contractionary measures will be put in place, there will be a
fall of expected average capacity utilisation and hence a
stand up to close decline in investment and GDP growth.
7. In consonance with the ruling orthodoxy, anti-inflationary
scrutiny. measures (of a macroeconomic nature) are undertaken only by
the central bank, not the fiscal authorities. To its credit, the
Reserve Bank, unlike the central banks in developed countries,
uses, in the context of the vastly different financial set-up in the
Indian economy, not only the repo and the reverse repo rates,
but also CRR and open market sales of government securities
including MSS bonds. Even so, three major factors seem to
stand in the way of efficient conduct of monetary policy for
promoting non-inflationary growth.
First, given the absence of a well developed private
bond market and limited exposure of banks, by far the largest
102 The lower the ratio, the larger will tend to be production and employ-
127
I C R A B U L L E T I N Appendix I: Oil Prices and Inflation
1. Oil Price Passthrough: Input-Output Approach
Money The usual approach (including that of the Reserve Bank) to
& analysing inflation due to an oil shock is to examine, in terms of an
Finance input-output framework, how costs and prices of various products will
be affected by a given increase in crude oil prices. To be more specific,
SEPTEMBER.2007
let the input-output matrix be denoted by
[aij]=A
where aij = the amount of the ith sector’s product (directly) required (as
input) for producing one unit of j. The jth column of A thus gives the
intermediate input requirements from various industries per unit of j.
Assume further that apart from aij’s, production of a unit of j also
requires lj unit of labour and oj unit of oil.103
Given the input-output matrix A, the first step is to construct
the matrix
[α ] = [I − A]
ij
−1
(1)
n n
Pj = ∑ l i α ij w + ∑ oi α ij Po (1 + λ j ) (2)
i =1 i =1
where w = the money wage rate;105 Po= Price of oil; and λ j is the
mark-up rate in the jth sector. Note that the first and the second terms
within the third brackets denote the direct-cum-indirect cost of labour
and oil respectively for producing a unit of j.
The effect of an increase in oil prices on Pj is immediate from (2):
n
α Pj ∑o α i ij Po
dPo dP
= n
i =1
n
⋅ = β oj ⋅ o (3)
∑l α w + ∑ oi α ij Po
Pj Po Po
i ij
i =1 i =1
103 Note that though domestic production of oil involves the use of
intermediate inputs from other industries, the fact that oil is required to be imported
on a large scale implies that domestic output of this sector, unlike that of others is
capacity constrained. Hence oil needs to be treated as a basic input for producing j
and its price taken as a parameter. This price may be fixed by the government and
may or may not equal the international price; but for validity of the input-output
analysis producers should not face any quantity constraint in meeting their demand
for oil or oil products.
104 The final demand consists of consumption, investment and export.
128
105 Assumed for simplicity to be uniform in all sectors.
where β oj = share of (direct-cum-indirect) oil in the (variable) cost I C R A B U L L E T I N
of j.
This confirms the intuitive conclusion that the percentage
Money
change in Pj due to an oil price shock will be proportional to the &
(direct-cum-indirect) oil intensity of j, given by β oj . Finance
The proportional change in the general price level, P, is then
SEPTEMBER.2007
easily obtained from (3):
dP n dPj n
dP
= ∑γ j = ∑ γ j β oj o (4)
P j =1 Pj i =1 Po
where γ j is the weight of Pj in the index of the general price level, P.
The relation (4) suggests that the higher the ratio of (direct-cum-
indirect) oil cost to wage cost of goods and services produced in the
economy and the larger the weights in P of prices of products that are
more oil intensive, the greater will be the proportional increase in the
general price level due to a rise in oil prices.
1 dP(t ) P * − P (t )
Π (t )≡ ⋅ = φ φ φ > 0 (5)
P (t ) dt P (t )
where φ is the rate at which the shortfall of actual price from its
equilibrium level is made up per unit of time.
The solution of (5) is standard and given by:
[ ]]
P(t ) = P * − P * − P(O ) ee −φt (6)
129
I C R A B U L L E T I N there is no persistence of inflation in the long run.106 Indeed, if the
adjustment is instantaneous,107 P jumps from P(O) to P* as soon an oil
Money prices go up, but (as AA3 and BB3, show) there is no inflation!
&
Finance FIGURE 1a
SEPTEMBER.2007
In P
In P* AA3
AA2
AA1
In P(o)
Time
FIGURE 1b
Inflation
BB2
BB2
BB3
O
Time
106 In view of the fact that the price adjustment process (5) takes the form
of a first order differential equation, P approaches P* asymptotically. The economi-
cally sensible approach is to ignore the part of AA when the gap between P* and P
has become small enough, say 10 per cent of P* when inflation has practically
vanished.
130 107 Implying that φ =
∞.
An implication of the above analysis is that under the new I C R A B U L L E T I N
equilibrium, there will be a fall in the real wage rate, and its propor-
tional fall exactly equals (in numerical terms) the proportional increase
Money
in P, as given by (4). Since money wages are likely to respond to &
changes in P as also the levels of output and employment, it is neces- Finance
sary to consider both the demand and the supply side effects of a rise in
SEPTEMBER.2007
oil prices. Let us examine these effects in terms of the widely used
aggregate demand-aggregate supply (AD-AS) framework suitably
modified for an open economy, characterised by Keynesian unemploy-
ment.
E
Y = D[Y , r (Y , P ); M ] + NX Y , ⋅ Pn , ⋅ Po
E
(8)
P + P
108 i.e., not dependent on output, interest rate or price level in the domestic
economy. This may be due to control or capital account transactions. In case the
currency is fully capital account convertible and there is large scale capital inflow,
the central bank can still keep both money supply and the exchange rate fixed
through sterilisation of the inflow; but the bank loses control over either the money
supply or the exchange rate when there is a torrent of capital inflow.
109 As specified in (7), a rise in EP causes a less than proportionate
increase in P.
o
131
I C R A B U L L E T I N In Fig. 2 AS and AD represent aggregate supply and aggregate
demand respectively, for given value of E and Po. Since an increase in
Money P apart from raising interest rates also effects a real exchange rate
& appreciation,110 AD would tend to be flatter in an open than in a closed
Finance economy. This has an important implication for the impact of an oil
shock on Y and P: since the shock raises AS upward, the fall in Y will
SEPTEMBER.2007
be larger and the price increase smaller, the flatter the aggregate
demand curve. Again, given E. since an oil price increase reduces
aggregate demand through both the interest rate and the real exchange
rate effect, AD will shift to the left, with the magnitude of the shift
being positively related to the responsiveness of trade deficit to a rise in
Po and the value of the foreign trade multiplier. The net effect of an oil
price shock on Y, as shown in Fig. 2, is unambiguously negative; but a
theoretical curiosum, viz., a fall in equilibrium P following an oil price
shock, cannot be ruled out when the leftward shift of AD is large or AS
is fairly steep.
FIGURE 2
AS1
AS 0
A1 A0
P1
P0
AD0
AD1
O Y
Y1 Y0
in the system. We may then use (7) and (8) to represent Y as a function
of E. Remembering that an increase in E raises P less than proportion-
Money
ately, Y will tend to be positively impacted by E because of the effect &
operating through net exports. However, the increase in P and the Finance
associated hardening of interest rate tend to have an opposite effect on
SEPTEMBER.2007
aggregate demand. Hence the relation between Y and E, as shown by
YY in Fig. 3, may be positively or negatively sloped, though an upward
rising YY is more plausible since the effect operating through a depre-
ciation of the real exchange rate is likely to be dominant, especially
when the country’s trade-GDP ratio is fairly large.
For examining the nature of equilibrium in the foreign currency
market, we assume (a) the current account flows to be more dominant;
and (b) the net capital inflows to be relatively autonomous.111 The
balance relation determining the exchange rate (E) may then be
specified as follows:
EP EP
E
NX Y , n , o + F = 0 (9)
P P P
(+) (−)
EE0
A1
A0
O Y
FIGURE 3b
EE1
EE0
A0
A1
YY0
YY1
O
Y
134
Oil Price Shock in a Full Employment Economy I C R A B U L L E T I N
Let the real exchange rate e, be defined as the ratio of the price
of non-oil imports (in terms of domestic currency) to P. With labour and
Money
oil as the variable inputs, the full employment equilibrium with given &
values of e and Po is characterised by the following set of relations: Finance
Y = F ( N , O; K ) (10) SEPTEMBER.2007
∂F W
= (≡ w d ) (11)
∂N P
wd
N = N (w d , ) (12)
+ e
+
∂F
= ePo (13)
∂O
where Y = aggregate output;114 N = employment; K = capital stock; W
= money wage rate; wd = real wage rate in terms of domestic output;
and wd/e = real wage rate in terms of foreign goods.
Equation (10) represents a neo-classical production function;
(11) along with (10) yields labour demand as a (declining) function of
wd (given O); (12) shows labour supply as a function of both wd and e
(since imported goods also enter the workers’ consumption basket); and
(13) in combination with (10) gives the demand for oil as a function of
ePo (given N).
For any given the international price of oil, Po, relations (10) to
(13) yield Y (along with N, O and wd) as a function of e, as shown by
Y*Y* in Fig. 4. The reason for YY being downward sloping is that other
things remaining the same, an increase in e reduces the supply of
labour and the profit-maximising level of O, as per (12) and (13)
respectively.
For closing the model we also need to specify the other blade of
the pair of scissors, viz., the balance of payments equilibrium condi-
tion, (9a):
NX ( Y , e , Po ) + e F = 0 (9a)
( −) (+ ) ( −)
114 Since output here is gross of oil used, Y in this model exceeds GDP
Money e
&
Finance ee1
SEPTEMBER.2007
eeo
Ao
A1
Y *Yo*
* *
Y Y
1 1
o Y
Yo*
TABLE 1
Major Group’s WPI Inflation (year-on-year)
(per cent)
137
I C R A B U L L E T I N Reference
Bose, Amitava (1989), “Short Period Equilibrium in a Less Developed Economy”, in
Money Mihir Rakshit (ed.), Studies in the Macroeconomics of Developing
138