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Ethnic Conflict Author(s): Yahya Sadowski Source: Foreign Policy, No. 111 (Summer, 1998), pp. 12-23 Published by: Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLC Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1149375 Accessed: 12/01/2010 11:55
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ETHNIC

CONFLICT
Ethnic conflictseemsto have supplanted nuclear war as the most pressing issue on the minds of policymakers. But if yesterday's high priestsof mutuassured destruction were guilty of ally hyper-rationality, today's prophets of anarchysuffer from a collective hysteria triggeredby simplistic notions of ethnicity. Debates about intervention in Rwanda or stability in Bosnia demanda more soberperspective. Sadowski byYahya

I.

The Number of Ethnic Conflicts Rose Dramatically at the End of the Cold War
of ethnic conflictshas recently Nope. The idea that the number us into a violentnew eraof ethnic"pandaemoniexploded, ushering thatround-the-clock androundum,"is one of thoseopticalillusions the-world televisioncoverage has helpedto create.Ethnicconflicts haveconsistently formed the vastmajority of wars eversincethe epoch of decolonization to the countries after1945. began sweep developing the number of ethnic conflicts has continued to Although growsince the ColdWarended,it hasdoneso at a slowandsteady rate,remainwiththe overall trendof the last50 years. ingconsistent In 1990and 1991,however, several new andhighlyvisibleethnic conflicts as a result of the dissolution of the SovietUnion and erupted The clashesbetweenthe armiesof Croatia, Yugoslavia. Serbia,and battlethat pittedBosnia's Slovenia,and the agonizing Croats,MusYA HYA S A DOW at thePaul H. NitzeSchool professor ofAdvanced D S KI is anassociate International Studies. Hislatest The Mythof Global Chaos(Washington: book, Brookings Institution theidea that ethnic Press, forthcoming), globalization critiques fuels conflict. 12 FOREIGNPOLICY

Sadowski

on Europe's eachother,occurred withlims,andSerbsagainst fringes, of television in Azerbaijan, in easyreach cameras. The wars Chechnya, in the andTajikistan, whilemoredistant, werestillimpressive Georgia, the remnants of the former Soviet colossus. way that they humbled for start of a observers mistook these wars the new trend.Some Many that they beganto reclassify conflictsin Angola, wereso impressed or power Peru,and Somalia-once seen as ideological Nicaragua, ethnic conflicts. struggles-asprimarily Thestate-formation wars thataccompanied the"Leninist extinction" event-a flashfloodrather nowappear to havebeena one-time thana have already beenbrought under globaldeluge. Manyof thesebattles the moststriking control. trendin warfare the has 1990s Indeed, during The Stockholm beenitsdecline: International Peace Research Institute documented armed conflicts and just27 major (onlyoneof which,India Pakistan's slow-motion overKashmir, wasan interstate war)in struggle 33 suchstruggles in 1989.Oncethe ColdWarended, 1996,downfrom a longlistof seemingly cameto a halt:the Lebanese perennial struggles civil war,the Moroinsurrection in the Philippines, clashes in regional secession andrelated battles in Ethiopia, theSahrawi Chad,theEritrean fratricide in SouthAfrica, andthe guerrilla wars independence struggle, in El Salvador andNicaragua. of the wars The majority areethnicconflicts-but thatsurvive today are battles that have been fordecades. they mostly persistent simmering the include in (nowpossibly defunct) They insurgency the United IRA the struggle forKurdish in Iran, andTurkey; Kingdom; autonomy Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian civilwar; the SriLankan andlong-standtragedy; in Burma, insurrections andIndonesia. India, ingregional

Most Ethnic Conflicts Are Rooted in Ancient Tribal or Religious Rivalries

No way.The claimthat ethnicconflicts have deeprootshas long beena standard for not involved. to politiargument getting According caljournalist Drew's Elizabeth famous President Bill Clinton in account, 1993hadintended to intervene in Bosnia untilhe read Robert Kaplan's
book BalkanGhosts,which, as Drew said, conveyed the notion that "thesepeoplehad been killingeach other in tribaland religious warsfor centuries."But the realityis that most ethnic conflictsareexpressions of "modern hate"and largelyproducts of the twentiethcentury.
SUMMER 1998 13

Think Again

firststumbled across is typical. WhenEuropeans The caseof Rwanda central was united under a of the most it, monarchy country already the samelanguage, shared thesame cuisine and whoseinhabitants spoke divided andpracticed the samereligion.Theywere,however, culture, were farmers. The the intoseveral castes. The largest rulHutus, group, from all was recruittribute other who collected groups, ing aristocracy, All groups the casteof cattleherders. ed from theTutsis, supplied troops mobilwasnotunusual. Social fortheircommon king,andintermarriage A richHutuwhopurchased castes wasquitepossible: enough ityamong of an impoverished Tutsi cattlecouldclimbinto the ranks the Tutsi; considered all of the Hutu.Anthropologists couldfall into the ranks of a single"tribe," the Banyarwanda. castesto be members the country afterWorld Then camethe Belgians. Uponoccupying Likemanycolonialpowers, the the system. WarI, they transformed wereeagerto a local6lite-the Tutsis choseto rulethrough Belgians forBelgian of theirlocalpower in exchange and collaborate guarantees for privileged accessto modem education.Districtsthat had been werebroughtunderTutsirule. Until 1929, underHutu leadership of the chiefsin Rwanda aboutone-third hadbeenHutu,butthen the to "streamline" the decided provincialadministration by Belgians all non-Tutsi chiefs.In 1933,the Belgians issued mandaeliminating tory identitycardsto all Rwandans, eliminatingfluid movement the of eachindividual, castesandpermanently between fixing identity aseitherHutuorTutsi. As the colonialadminandhis orherchildren, andgrewmorepowerful, istration allowed penetrated Belgian backing the Tutsisto increase their exploitation of the Hutusto levels that in earlier wouldhavebeen impossible times. In the 1950s,the Belgians cameunderpressure fromthe United Nations to grant Rwandaindependence. In preparation, Brussels Hutus-the Tutsisconstituted beganto accordthe majority only 14 of the of share and percent population-a politicalpower greater accessto education. the Tutsis,it did Althoughthis policyalarmed not comecloseto satisfying the Hutus: Bothgroups beganto organize to defendtheirinterests, andtheirconfrontations becameincreasingthat included both HutusandTutsis were ly militant.Centrist groups
gradually squeezedout by extremistson both sides.The era of modern communal violence began with the 1959 attack on a Hutu leaderby Tutsi extremists;Hutus retaliated, and several hundred people were killed. This set in motion a cycle of violence that culminated in
14 FOREIGN POLICY

Sadowski

EthnicAfrica
#010

have "Europe's imperial cartographers been criticized than acentury for more for borders that drawing up casually ethnic orplaced separated groups longtime inthe observed rivals colony," same inthe the New York ofcivil war wake Times and ofEthiopia. inSomalia the breakup But asthis ofAfrica's ethnic map groups borders would demonstrates, redrawing This beno task. simple predicament represents the toresolving greatest challenge conflicts ethnic worldwide: There are often no toretreat boundaries behind. agreed
from inthe World? Adventures Map reprinted, by permission, Why Source: inGeography J.Demko, Jerome and with Boe, by George Agel Eugene produced Jerome Jerome in trade Anchor Published by Agel. by Agel. paperback by ? 1992 Books/Doubleday.

December 1963, when Hutus massacred 10,000 Tutsis and drove another 130,000-150,000 from the country.These tragedieslaid the seeds for the genocide of 1994. The late emergenceof ethnic violence, such as in Rwanda,is the norm,not an exception. In Ceylon, riotsthat pittedTamilsagainstSinSUMMER 1998 15

Think Again

SerbsandCroats coexisted halesedidnot eruptuntil 1956.In Bosnia, of theircomwithone another, andbothclaimed Muslims asmembers even relations resumed munities,until WorldWar II-and peaceful a common andKurds shared of thatconflict. Turks afterthe bloodshed asOttomans andworethe sameuniforms World WarI; during identity in fact,the firstKurdish Turkish rulewasnot recorded revoltagainst andJewsin Palestine had no specialhistoryof until 1925. Muslims hatred(certainly antiintercommunal nothingresembling European the riots of when Arab until nascent nationalism Semitism) 1921, Zionistmovement. beganto conflictwith the burgeoning Although Hindu-Muslim clasheshad a long historyin India,they werehighly it wasonlyafter1880thatthe contention between thesetwo localized; to into movements. Of course, groups began gel large-scale, organized in all theseconflicts tendto dream the agitators upfancyhistoric pedifortheirdisputes. Bosnian Serbsimagine thattheyarefighting to grees in their defeat the Ottoman Turks Hutus declare that 1389; avenge by treatedthem as subhumans; Tutsishave "always" and IRAbombers in thenameof a nationalist attack theirvictims tradition theyclaimhas burned sincethe Dark these of But hatred arethemAges. mythologies selveslargely recentinventions.

EthnicConflictWas Powerful Enough to Rip Apart the USSR

Yeah,right.The ideathat the Soviet Union wasdestroyed by an of ethnic been atavism has a forth number of influexplosion put by ential thinkers, mostnotablySenatorDanielPatrick But Moynihan. this theoryis not onlyhistorically it hasmisleading inaccurate, policy The collapseof statesis moreoften the causeof ethnic implications. conflictsrather thanthe result. Priorto 1991,ethnic consciousness withinthe Soviet Union had intomass in threeregions: nationalism the Baltic states, onlydeveloped andRussia itself. Russian nationalism no threat to Transcaucasia, posed Sovietrule: It hadbeenso successfully onto communism grafted during WorldWarII that even todayLeninists andRussian ultranationalists tendto flockto the sameparties. In Transcaucasia, the Armenians and
Georgians had developed potent national identities but were much more interestedin pursuinglocal feuds (especiallywith Muslims)than in dismantlingthe Soviet Union. Only in the Baltic states,which had
16 FOREIGN POLICY

Sadowski

until 1940,waspowerful remained andindependent nationsovereign alistsentiment channeled Moscow. directly against 1991coupparalyzed WhentheAugust theCommunist the last Party, threads the Soviet state dissolved. then did holding together Only rapid to spread efforts nationalism to other InBelarus, Ukraine, regions appear. and across CentralAsia, the nomenklatura, for new instrusearching ments to legitimatetheir rule, began to embrace-and sometimes invent-nationalist It wasamidst thiswaveof post-Soviet mythologies. nationalism thatneworrekindled ethnicconflicts broke out in Chechandelsewhere. Yetevenamidthe chaosof state Ukraine, nya,Moldova, ethnonationalist movements remained weaker andlessviolent collapse, thanmanyhadexpected. the of numerous Despite predictions pundits, revivalist Islamicmovements only took root in a coupleof places andTajikistan). Relations betweenindigenous Turkic (Chechnya peoand Russian across mostof Central Asiaremained civil. ples immigrants

EthnicConflictsAre More Savage and Genocidal Than Conventional Wars

is inaccurate, the truthis not Wrong.Althoughthis assumption muchmorecomforting. Thereappears to be no consistent difference between ethnicandnonethnicwarsin terms of theirlethality. In fact, the percentage of civiliansin the shareof totalcasualties is rising for all typesof warfare. World WarI, civiliancasualties constitutDuring ed about15 percent of all deaths. Thatnumber to skyrocketed 65 percent during WorldWarII, which,by popularizing the use of strategic blockade-induced constituted famine,andguerrilla bombing, warfare, a real, albeit underappreciated, watershed in the historyof human Eversince,the number of civiliandeadhasconstituted twoslaughter. thirds or moreof the totalfatalities in mostwars. to Indeed, according the of share civilian casualties has continued to since UNICEF, grow 90 percent 1945-rising to almost bythe endof the 1980sandto more than90 percent thisdecade. during ethnicwarsarelesslikelyto be associated with genoFurthermore,
cide than "conventional" wars.The worst genocides of modem times have not been targetedalong primarily ethnic lines. Rather,the genocides within Afghanistan,Cambodia,China, the Soviet Union, and even, to a greatextent, Indonesiaand Uganda, have focusedon liquiSUMMER 1998 17

Think Again

Ma*jor
since
(OUNTRY
US R
DATES

Genocides War World

VKTIMS

1
NUMBER
OF

(IN THOUSAN
DEATHS

1943-47

Repatriated
Landlords

nationals

and

ethnic

minorities

China

1950-51
1955-72 1965-66 1966-75
1971-79
1971

500-1,100 800-3,000
100-500

Sudan Indonesia
China

Southern
Communists
Cultural

nationalists
and ethnic
victims

Chinese

80-1,000
400-850
100-500

revolution
of
Idi

Uganda Pakistan Cambodia

Opponents

Amin

Bengali
Urbanites

nationalists

1,250

-3,0 0

1975-79
1978-89 1983-98 1984-91

800-3,000
of
the

Afghanistan
Sudan
Iraq

Opponents
Southern
Kurds

regime

1,0 0

nationalists

100-1,500
100-282
and
Croats

Bosnia
Burundi Rwanda

1991-95
1993--98 19 4

Bosnian
Hut ,
Tutsi
Tutsi

Muslims

25-20 150+

Sour(es:

Polithc1des and sin(e 1945,' Genoodes, Group Repression 1 of 1995-1996 State of Wotld(onfl International Review Confll(t Resolution (1989)? 23-41, Program, Victimology, the Carter Los and BrItanniffl. (enter, Times; (Atlanta: 1997); Incyc/opoedia Report Angeles
Barbara
Harf ,

500-1,000

'Voirns

of

the

Sta e?

To employthe emerging vocabulary, they datingpoliticaldissidents: of the werepoliticides rather thanethnicides. Indeed, largest genocides the mass drivenpoliticides: this centurywere clearlyideologically to 1976, in from the Maoist China committed 1949 killings by regime Soviet between and in the Union the 1917 regime by Leninist/Stalinist in Cambodia between1975and1979. 1959,andbythe PolPotregime somepundits have claimedthat ethnicconflictsaremore Finally, or guerbecause theyareoftenfoughtby irregular, likelyto be savage rilla, troops.In fact, (a) ethnic warsare usuallyfoughtby regular of viciousmassacres. arequitecapable and (b) regular armies armies, on the worst out to the television, killing Contrary stereotypes played were members of irregular in Bosnia didnot occurwherecombatants forces The coreof the Serbseparatist drunk on slivovitz. militias, reeling from the were seconded that consistedof highlydisciplined troops It was a officer and led corps. preby spit-and-polish Yugoslav army It at Srebrenica possible: ciselytheseunits that madethe massacres between and real skill to take 10,000 6,000 required organizational and transport them to centrallocaBosniantroopsprisoner, disarm their bodies murder them and distribute tions, and systematically mass the a network of concealed carefully graves.Similarly, among
18 FOREIGN POLICY

Sadowski

waveof ethniccleansing thatfollowed the seizure of northern andeastern Bosniaby the Serbsin 1991 was not the spontaneous workof crazedirregulars. the male Bosnian to conTransporting population centration at Omarska and elsewhere the talents of camps required menwhoknewhowto coordinate read railroad schedattacks, military and (under-) andorganize ules,guard supply largeprison populations, bustransport forexpelling womenandchildren.

Globalization Makes EthnicConflict More Likely

Think again.The claimthatglobalization-the of consumer spread and capitalist values,democratic institutions, enterprise-aggravates ethnic and cultural violence is at the core of SamuelHuntington's of civilizations" Robert visionof "thecom"clash hypothesis, Kaplan's and Benjamin Barber's that we facea future of ing anarchy," warning vs. McWorld." these deserve further "Jihad Although suggestions study, the earlyindications arethatglobalization playsno realrolein spreadinhibitit. ingethnicconflictandmayactually criticsthat the broadappealof "BayDespitethe fearsof cultural watch" a collapse heralds of worldwide values,thereis not muchconcreteevidencelinking the outbreak of ethnicwarsto the global spread of crude materialism via film,television, andboombox. Denmark radio, has justas manytelevision sets as the former but has not Yugoslavia into ethnic or even mass Meanerupted carnage immigrant bashing. on the distant outskirts of the global with while,Burundi, sitting village setforevery haswitnessed someof the 4,860people, onlyone television worst violencein thisdecade. The spread of democratic values seemsa slightly moreplausible candidateas a trigger forethnicviolence: The recentprogress of democraand Armenia, Croatia, Moldova, cy in Albania, Russia, Serbia, Georgia, SouthAfrica hasbeenattended ethnic in each But by feuding country. thisis an inconsistent trend. Someof the mostsavage internal conflicts of thepost-ColdWar haveoccurred in societies thatweregrowperiod India(whichfacedmajor secessionist chaling lessfree,suchas Egypt,
lenges by Kashmiris,Sikhs, Tamils, etc.), Iran, and Peru. For that matter,many of the worstrecent ethnic conflictsoccurredin countries where the regime type was unstable and vacillated back and forth between more and less free forms,as in Azerbaijan,Bosnia, Lebanon,
SUMMER 1998 19

Think Again

in numerous suchas andTajikistan. cases, Liberia, Conversely, Nigeria, third wave of that Latin America the so-called democratization swept seemsto have the 1980s,politicalliberalization and EastAsia during forms of violence. reduced most actually political leadsto three the impactof economicglobalization Investigating mostby globalization-thatis, affected First,the countries surprises. in international and thosethathaveshownthe greatest increase trade mostsignificantly fromforeign directinvestment-arenot benefited economies of EastAsia and LatinAmerica the newlyindustrializing butthe old industrial of Europe societies andNorthAmerica. Second, in everytypeof ethnic conflictsarefound,in someformor another, society:They are not concentrated amongpoorstates,nor are they commonamongcountries economicglobalunusually experiencing ization.Thus,the badnews is that ethnic conflictsdo not disappear whensocieties"modernize." The goodnews,however, lies in the thirdsurprise: Ethnicconflicts are likelyto be muchlesslethalin societiesthat aredeveloped, ecoand to in Ethnic battles indusnomically open, receptive globalization. trialand industrializing societiestendeitherto be argued civillyor at leastlimitedto the political violenceof marginal suchas the groups, in the United in CanaMohawk secessionists provisional Kingdom, IRA The mostgruesome ethda,or the KuKluxKlanin the UnitedStates. nic warsare foundin poorersocieties-Afghanistan and Sudan,for reinforces example-where economic frustration political rage. It that if economic contributes to a counseems,therefore, globalization then it also the level of ethnic violence there. try's prosperity, dampens

Fanaticism Makes Ethnic Conflicts Harder to Terminate

Not really. of one of the mostmurislavSeselj,the commander Voj derousSerbparamilitary in Bosnia,once warned that if U.S. groups forceswereused there,"thewar [would] be total.....We wouldhave tens of thousands of volunteers, andwe wouldscorea glorious victowouldhave to send thousands of bodybags.It ry. The Americans
would be a new Vietnam."Of course, several years later, after Serb forces had been handily defeated by a combination of Croat ground forces and NATO airpower, the president of the Serb separatists, Radovan Karadzic,admitted their leadershiphad thought all along
20 FOREIGN POLICY

Sadowski

Tribal

Wisdom

violent between marked a tense and "For line centuries, fault often [Yugoslavia] Theendof theColdWarandthedissolution andreligions. of that empires tensions ... surfaced allthose ancient ..." again country
-U.S. president Bill Clinton,addressing the U.S. Naval Academy in 1994

in which both thefactors "We areconfronted of phenomena bycontradictory and areboth and and the tendencies division dispersal of integration cooperation andcommunications revolution is offset Thetechnological by the apparent. and ethnic hatreds." nationalist eruption conflicts of
-Egyptian foreign minister Amr Moussa, before the UN General Assembly in 1996

have a struggle between "Inthis where noonewould thought Europe of ours, It this has come about. serve to ethnic open peopossible, may groups tragically in the even in to the places. ple's unspeakable possibilities future, unexpected eyes . . . of racial, andtribal we arethreatened religious, by thedanger Today hatred."
-Italian president Oscar LuigiScalfaro in 1997

"Yet even as thewaves sopowerfully across our ofglobalization unfurl planet, some called a 'new so does a deep andvigorous countertide. have ... What tribalism' isshaping theworld asprofoundly ononelevel asthe'new globalism' it onanother." isshaping
-His Highness the Aga Khan, at the Commonwealth Press Union Conference in Cape Town in 1996

theworld, weseea kind totribalism. ofreversion ... Weseeit "... allover inRussia, inYugoslavia, inCanada, intheUnited isitabout ... What States. allthis communication is return to that moreglobalization of making people tosmaller units ofidentity?"
-Neil Postman, chair of the department of culture and communication at New York University, in 1995

that "ifthe West put in 10,000 men to cut off our supplycorridors, we Serbs would be finished."Militarily,ethnic conflicts are not intrinsically differentfrom any other type of combat. They can take on the form of guerrillawarsor conventional battles; they can be fought by determinedand disciplinedcadresor by poorly motivated slobs. How
SUMMER 1998 21

Think Again

to end the fightingvarieswidely forcewill be required muchmilitary fromone ethnicconflictto the next. a durable andbuilding a military However, peace victory achieving in conflicts the ethnic matters. aretwoverydifferent may Sealing peace Ethnicconflicts are forpolitical-not military-reasons. proveharder withone wholive intermingled among people fought among neighbors, and institutions. When two other,forcedto sharethe sameresources statesend a war,they mayneed only to agreeto stop shootingand Butin ethnicconflicts thereareoftenno estaba mutual border. respect ethnic disputes can be lishedborders to retreat behind.Sometimes, resolvedby drawingnew borders-creatingnew states (such as and"rump" that allowthe quarreling to Pakistan) Bangladesh groups the comliveapart. Othertimes,theycanbe terminated byconvincing andlearnto coexist. This batants thattheymustshare power peaceably on Bosnia. is the objective of the Dayton accord In eithercase,endingethnic warfare often requires the expensive and delicateconstruction of new politicalinstitutions. Not only may thanterminating a "normal" thisbe moredifficult interstate it may war, alsotakemuchlonger. effective states takes time. For this Building truly ethnicwars whoseparticipants arealready intostates reason, organized orprotostates in Croatia andBosnia) (whichwastrueof thecombatants areprobably easierto bringto a conclusion thanbattlesin regionsfor not of to Somalia-where realstates Afghanistan, example, speak haveyet to congeal. WANT TO KNOW MORE?

The classicintroduction to the studyof ethnicconflictis still Donald Ethnic of California in Conflict Horowitz, Groups (Berkeley: University PeaceResearch Institute International Press,1985). The Stockholm inventories of warfare in the SIPRI Yearbook changing patterns (sIPRI) Oxford Fora specialist's (Oxford: Press, annual). University tallyof particularethnic conflicts, see Ted RobertGurr, Minorities at Risk: A Viewof Ethnopolitical U.S. Institute of Global Conflicts (Washington: overview of the evolving relations between Peace,1993). An absorbing Tutsiand Hutuis GOrard The RwandaCrisis:Historyof a Prunier, Columbia (New York: Press,1995).The Human Genocide University Rights Watchreport,Slaughter The PoliticalOriamong Neighbors:
22 FOREIGN POLICY

Sadowski

Yale Violence Press, 1995), (NewHaven: University gins of Communal of the of modemhate.An excellentaccount a broader survey provides havetakenin territothatethnicity andnationalism of forms diversity The Revenge SovietUnionisRonald riesof theformer of Grigor Suny's the Past: Nationalism,Revolution and the Collapseof the Soviet Stanford Union (Stanford: Press,1993). Neal Ascherson University in his bookBlackSea of nationality andethnicity reflects uponissues histothe expansive Hill & Wang,1995),whichchronicles (NewYork: culnexus of several Asian and of has a a that been European ry region tures.DavidRohde's chillingEndgame:The Betrayaland Fall of the & Giroux,1997)documents Farrar Straus Srebrenica (New York: in A Bosnia. the careful underlying genocide planning organizational of whether, or how,the United the question recentworkthatdissects States should intervene in ethnic conflicts is David Callahan's Powerand EthnicConflict Unwinnable Wars: American (NewYork: Hill & Wang,1998). indexof Websites,as well as a comprehensive Forlinksto relevant access related articles, www.foreignpolicy.com.

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