Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 2, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 2, 2013

Highlights
Indias HSBC Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3-mark in last month. US ISM Manufacturing PMI gained by 1.9 points to 50.9-mark in June. European Unemployment Rate also rose to 12.1 percent in May. UKs Manufacturing PMI shoot up to 52.5-mark in prior month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable manufacturing data from US in yesterdays trade showing signs of recovery in worlds largest economy. US Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.3 points to 51.9-mark in June as against a rise of 52.2-level in May. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI gained by 1.9 points to 50.9-mark in June from 49-level a month ago. Construction Spending was at 0.5 percent in May as compared to 0.1 percent a month earlier. ISM Manufacturing Prices rose by 3 points to 52.5-mark in June with respect to 49.5-level in prior month. Indias HSBC Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased by 0.2 points to 50.3-mark in June as against a rise of 50.1level in May.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5898.9 19577.4 14974.96 1615.0 15459.6 1959.2 58497.8 13852.5 97.99 1255.90 19.56 6963.00 102.09 0.0 Prev. day 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.4 -1.5 0.2 1.3 1.5 2.6 0.0 2.9

as on July 1, 2013 WoW 5.5 5.6 2.2 2.7 2.3 8.9 27.3 -0.1 3.0 -1.5 0.2 3.8 4.7 MoM -3.7 -3.2 -1.3 -1.0 -8.9 -1.5 10.8 7.6 5.0 -10.2 -12.9 -11.3 -2.4 YoY 14.6 7.0 16.3 26.4 8.0 2.0 7.0 53.9 15.3 -21.7 -28.8 -8.8 -0.6

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable economic data from the US exerted downside pressure in the currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 83.18 and closed at 83.25 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX) 83.25 59.38 59.82 59.81 Prev. day -0.1 0.2 0.13 0.10 WoW 0.8 0.7 0.06 0.03

as on July 1, 2013 MoM 0.7 -5.3 5.26 5.26 YoY 4.8 -6.7 6.54 6.50

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee traded on a mixed note in yesterdays trading session. The currency opened on a depreciation mode but recovered its losses and appreciated during the day on account of upbeat domestic markets, favorable manufacturing data from India which came better than forecast along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, expectations of corporate inflows through Unilevers open offer coupled with foreign funds by foreign institutional investors after a constant 13 days of selling supported an upside in the currency during the day. However, in the later part of the trade near closing hours there was huge dollar demand from importers which wiped off the days gains and the currency ended on a weaker note and ended with losses of 0.2 percent. The currency touched an intra-day low of 59.593 and closed at 59.38 on Monday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.11,026.90 crores ($1,852.15 million) as on 28th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.72,178.20 crores ($13,500.80 million) till 28 June 2013. Outlook Post the relief rally from Friday, markets have continued to be in a positive territory and taking cues from the same Rupee is likely to appreciate today. However, dollar demand from importers can cap sharp gains or reversal can be seen in the currency.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for July 2, 2013 Support 59.50/59.20 Resistance 59.95/60.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 2, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region coupled with upbeat global markets supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3066 and closed at 1.3063 against the dollar on Monday. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 50-mark in June as against a rise of 48.1-level in May. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose by 1.8 points to 49.1-level in last month from 47.3-level a month ago. European Final Manufacturing PMI gained by 0.1 points to 48.8-mark in June as compared to 48.7-level in prior month. Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate rose to 12.2 percent in May with respect to gain of 12 percent a month earlier. European Unemployment Rate also rose to 12.1 percent in May from 12 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from the region will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for July 2, 2013 Support 77.70/77.40 Resistance 78.20/78.50

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3063 77.56 78.0 Prev. day 0.4 -0.2 -0.13

as on July 1, 2013 WoW -0.4 1.1 -0.44 MoM 0.1 -5.4 5.73 YoY 3.8 -10.2 12.64

78.0

-0.10

-0.49

5.73

12.62

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day 0.04 -0.20 -0.03

as on July 1, 2013

WoW -1.4 -2.22 -0.80

MoM -0.1 5.07 5.37

YoY -3.0 5.92 5.81

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated marginally in yesterdays trade taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, positive global markets along with favorable economic data from the country supported an upside in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5248 and closed at 1.5216 against dollar on Monday. UKs Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.2 points to 52.5-mark in June as against a rise of 51.3-level in May. Net Lending to Individuals was at 1 billion Pounds in May from 1.3 billion Pounds a month ago. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of positive global markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from the country will act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for July 2, 2013 Support 90.70/90.50 Resistance 91.20/91.50

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5216 90.376 91.00

91.00

-0.01

-0.88

5.37

5.83

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 2, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 99.86 and closed at 99.65 against dollar on Monday. However, favorable economic data from the country restricted sharp fall in the currency. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which could lead to fall in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for July 2, 2013 Support 59.70/59.50 Resistance 60.20/60.50 Last 99.65 0.5962 60.00 60.00 Prev day 0.5 -0.68 -0.51 -0.45 as on July 1, 2013 WoW 2.0 -2.69 -1.58 -1.53 MoM -1.1 5.84 6.01 6.02 YoY 25.4 -16.28 -16.36 -16.35

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 2, 2013

Indicator Average Cash Earnings y/y Spanish Unemployment Change Halifax HPI m/m Construction PMI Factory Orders m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Country Japan Euro UK UK US US Time (IST) 7:00am 12:30pm 2th 4
th

Actual 0.0% -

Forecast 0.6% -83.5K 0.4% 51.3 2.1% -

Previous 0.0% -98.3K 0.4% 50.8 1.0% -

Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

2:00pm 7:30pm 10:00pm

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