Basic SPC Tools

Presented by Russell A. Boyles, PhD Six Sigma Master Black Belt russell.boyles@gmail.com

SPC Statistical Process Control Statistical Process Monitoring

SPM?

Process Control Strategies

Reduce the chance that problems will occur Prevent problems from occurring Identify and remove causes of problems

Standardization Training Documentation Visual controls Periodic audits

Mistake proofing Kanban Warning systems

Visual controls Periodic audits Warning systems Monitor key variables

using statistical control charts and documented response plans

Key Concept in Statistical Monitoring

Common-cause variation:

Assignable-cause variation:

Two Kinds of Variation

Common causes
Random Inherent in the process Many small fluctuations Causes cannot be determined Outcomes are predictable

Assignable causes
Systematic Mistakes, malfunctions, external factors Occasional large fluctuations Causes can be determined Outcomes are not predictable

Two Kinds of Variation

Baseline phase
177
Common causes

Assignable cause

176 175 174 173 172 171 170

Monitoring phase

Two Kinds of Variation

Baseline phase
20 15 10 5

Assignable cause
Common causes

Monitoring phase

Two Kinds of Variation

No assignable causes!
Customer complaints
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Month 20 22 24 26 28 30

New manager makes big improvement!

Manager gets bonus!

Manager is reassigned!

New manager has special meeting with CEO!

Statistical Monitoring Strategy

Establish expected limits of common-cause variation from baseline data

Statistical Monitoring Strategy

Do nothing unless an assignable cause is detected If and when one does occur...

9 Investigate to determine the cause 9 Take corrective action to eliminate the cause

Response Plan Example 1

Collect and enter data Assignable cause?
Y N

Continue

Verify the data Verify the gage Document problem and solution

Able to diagnose?
Y

Escalate

Able to fix?

Fix the problem

Response Plan Example 2

Take sample from current lot Assignable cause?
Y N

Start new lot

Take another sample

Assignable cause?
Y

Enter into process log

Do operator checklist

Call Technician Do technician checklist Problem Y solved?

N

Problem Y solved?

Call Engineer

Calculating Control Limits

Most often we use three-sigma limits to distinguish operationally between assignable causes and common causes
3 + 3

Assignable causes

Common causes

Assignable causes

Baseline distribution of quantity to be monitored

Calculating Control Limits

If the quantity to be monitored follows a Normal distribution, there is only a 0.3% chance of a false alarm
3 + 3

99.7%

Baseline distribution of quantity to be monitored

Calculating Control Limits

Dont need a Normal distribution
98.1%

Three-sigma limits are an economic

compromise between false alarms and missed signals
4 5 6

99.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

99.4%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Control Chart
Evidence of assignable causes + 3 Upper Control Limit (UCL)

Baseline distribution of quantity to be monitored

Average

Lower Control Limit (LCL) Evidence of assignable causes Time

Regular sigma calculation

Based on deviations from the data average
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Time

Control limits based on regular sigma

50 45 40 35 30

Average = 24.7 Standard deviation = 7.1

25 20 15 10 5 0

Time

Problem with using regular sigma

Often there are assignable causes in the baseline data (trends, outliers, . . . ) In this case, regular sigma is inflated by assignable causes, and is not an accurate estimate of commoncause variation Control limits based on regular sigma are too wide to detect assignable causes if and when they occur in the future

Calculating short-term sigma

Based on deviations from the previous data point
40 35 30 25

20 15 10 5 0

Time

Calculating short-term sigma

Data

Avg. Regular Moving moving Short-term Avg. sigma ranges range sigma 7.1 -0.80 2.40 6.40 2.40 2.50 5.70 1.20 4.00 1.80 3.20 4.50 3.70 1.20 8.60 7.50 3.73 3.30

15.10 24.7 14.30 16.70 23.10 25.50

=STDEV()

23.00 28.70 29.90 33.90 32.10 28.90 33.40 29.70 28.50 19.90 12.40

= Avg. moving range / 1.128

Control limits based on short-term sigma

50 45 40 35 30

Average = 24.7 Short - term sigma 3.3

Y 25
20 15 10 5 0

Time

Rationale for using short-term sigma

Often there are assignable causes in the baseline data (trends, outliers, . . . ) Short-term sigma is not inflated by assignable causes, so it is still an accurate estimate of common-cause variation Control limits based on short-term sigma will detect assignable causes if and when they occur in the future

What about specification limits?

Lower specification limit (LSL) Upper specification limit (USL)

Customers expectation is not met

Customers expectation is met

Customers expectation is not met

Out-of-specification event
What do we do?

USL

LSL

Well, that depends on

Process Capability
LSL USL

If our process has good capability, it will virtually never produce a defective outcome, except by assignable cause Therefore, any defective outcome should trigger the response plan Of course, we also need to disposition the affected material (scrap, rework, . . .)

Process Capability
LSL USL

If our process has bad capability, there will be defective outcomes that are not assignable causes Therefore, not all defect outcomes should trigger the response plan Of course, we still need to disposition the affected material (scrap, rework, . . .)

Exercise
LSL LCL

UCL USL

LCL

LSL

USL

UCL

Indicate in the table below which of the suggested actions are appropriate for process outcomes in each of the 4 zones shown above.
Initiate response plan Scrap, rework or other disposition of affected material

Zone 1 2 3 4

Do nothing