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EVALUATION OF PRE-OVERLAY RUT DEPTH FOR LOCAL CALIBRATION OF THE MEPDG RUTTING MODEL
Presented by Dr. Arnold Yuan Assistant Professor, Ryerson University E-mail: arnold.yuan@ryerson.ca
Canadian Society of Civil Engineering 2013 Annual Conference, Montreal, QB, Canada, May 29 June 1, 2013
Overview
What have we achieved ?
Evaluated level-3 pre-overlay rut value for rehabilitated flexible pavement sections of Ontario.
What do we present ?
This presents the result from this investigation based on the MTOs PMS-2 data.
The goal of the investigation was to minimize the impact of an uncertain pre-overlay rut value on the accuracy of level-1 local calibration.
Canadian Society of Civil Engineering 2013 Annual Conference, Montreal, QB, Canada, May 29 June 1, 2013
Pre-overlay rut Pre-overlay rut refers to the terminal rut depth at the end of previous life cycle of a rehabilitated flexible pavement section.
1. 2. 3. 4.
5. Permanent deformation
6. International Roughness Index
Significance
Pre-overlay rut is very sensitive input parameter. Pre-overlay rut is a very important parameter in local calibration
1999
2000
2007
2008
2010
Sensitivity of permanent deformation to pre-overlay rut value (ranging from 4 mm to 12 mm) for a typical rehabilitated flexible pavement
IRI, transverse cracking and fatigue cracking are also sensitive to Pre-overlay Rut value.
Climate Information Air Temperature Precipitation Moisture content Sunshine Wind speed Freezing Index
Wind speed
Sunshine
Vehicle Inputs Axle spacing Axle configuration Traffic Wander Axle width Dual tire spacing Tire Pressure Operational speed Vehicle class
Traffic Information AADTT Growth rate Truck distribution Truck traffic classification No. of Lanes Monthly and Hourly Adjustment factor
W/T depth
AC Layer MTO PMS-2 Database Thickness Unit weight Air void Effective binder content Poissons Ratio Tensile Strength Thermal conductivity Heat capacity Sieve Passing Base, Sub-base and MTO PMS-2 subgrade Layers Database Thickness Resilient Modulus
Research Methodology
Research Tool:
MEPDG analysis were run in DARWin-METM (the official AASHTOWare for MEPDG)
Methodology:
Two approaches are taken in this study: 1) Frequency distribution analysis 2) Regression analysis Finally, local calibration of the rutting model is performed by using different pre-overlay rut values.
Statistical Estimation
Number of Pavement Sections
Frequency Distribution:
A total of 1175 flexible pavement sections identified from the identified pre-overlay rut.
Functions Minimum Maximum Mean Mode Standard Deviation Total Rut (mm) 2.360 15.333 7.053 6.261 1.835
150
100 50 2 3 0 18
135 112 80 51 26 11 1 1
On the basis of frequency distribution, a mean value of 7 mm can be used as a Level 3 input for the pre-overlay rut value for pavement sections in Ontario
Statistical Estimation
Regression Analysis:
A total of 864 flexible pavement sections from the PMS-2 database. The regression analysis of the rut depth expressed by the DMI and RCI were conducted. Regression resulted in poor correlation with a R2 value of only 0.22.
This poor fitness of this data can be explained by many factors as the both DMI and RCI (before 1997) are subjective values.
Preliminary 51 rehabilitated flexible pavement sections were analyzed with a preliminary total rut value of 4 mm
This pre-overlay rut value was selected because it was recommended by the MTO staff DARWin-METM analyses were repeated for different preoverlay rut depths ranging from 4 to 12 mm at an incremental step of 1 mm.
4 5 3.206 2.095
Pre-overlay Rut (mm) 7 8 9 0.477 0.067 -0.403 3.004 2.494 2.672 2.355 2.594 2.269
20
15
15
15
10
10
10
0 0 5 10 15 20
0
0 5 10 15 20
20
A pre-overlay rut of 7 to 9 mm will improve accuracy and precision of rut prediction of globally calibrated model.
CONCLUSIONS
DARWin-METM, the study has shown that both the bias and RMSE reduced drastically when the average terminal rut depth of 7 mm was used for the preoverlay value. The level-3 pre-overlay rut value of 7 mm is recommended for rehabilitated flexible pavement sections of Ontario.
REFERENCE
Waseem, A., Yuan, X.-X., and Shehata, M. (2013). "Evaluation of Pre-overlay Rut with MEPDG Rutting Model for Flexible Pavements using Ontario's Long Term PMS Data." CSCE 3rd Specialty Conference on Engineering Mechanics and Materials, Montreal, Quebec
http://www.scribd.com/doc/149970728/Evaluation-of-Pre-overlay-Rut-Depth-for-LocalCalibration-of-the-MEPDG-Rutting-Model-in-Ontario-Pavements