125

Chapter 5

PROBA BILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.1 (a) Discrete, (b) Continuous, (c) Continuous

(d) Continuous, (e) Discrete

5.2 (a) Continuous, (b) Continuous, (c) Discrete,

(d) Discrete, (e) Continuous

5.3 (a)
Possible choices x Possible choices x
{1, 3} 2 {3, 6} 3
{1, 5} 4 {3, 7} 4
{1, 6} 5 {5, 6} 1
{1, 7} 6 {5, 7} 2
{3, 5} 2 {6, 7} 1

(b) The distinct values of x and the corresponding probabilities are listed in the
following table. All 10 choices, listed in part (a), are equally likely so


No. Choices for which
[ ]
10
X x
P X x
=
= =

x [ ] P X x =
1 0.2
2 0.3
3 0.1
4 0.2
5 0.1
6 0.1
126 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.4 (a)


(b) 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

5.5 (a) The ratings by the judges are given in the figure below.

(b) 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

5.6 For each weekend, denote the events

B = Brand B has the highest sales

M = Brand M has the highest sales

Then the possible outcomes for three weekends can be enumerated by drawing a
tree diagram. The eight outcomes and values for X are:



127



Outcome Value of X
MMM 0
BMM 1
MBM 1
MMB 1
BBM 2
BMB 2
MBB 2
BBB 3

5.7 (a) & (b) The outcomes and the values of X are given on the tree diagram below.

5.8 (a) & (b) As choices may be B or C, Bs may be A or C, and Cs may be A or B.
All combinations of their choices can be listed by drawing a tree diagram, which is
given below.






128 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.9 Let X = sum of years of experience of two workers.
There are 10 possible outcomes that give rise to nine possible values for this
random variable, as described below:

Outcome Value of X
{1,1} 2
{1,2} 3
{1,2} 3
{1,4} 5
{1,2} 3
{1,2} 3
{1,4} 5
{2,2} 4
{2,4} 6
{2,4} 6

The probability distribution for X is given by:

Value of X ( ) [ ] f x P X x = =
2 1/10
3 4/10
4 1/10
5 2/10
6 2/10

5.10 Let X = maximum number of years experience between two workers.
There are 10 possible outcomes that give rise to four possible values for this
random variable, as described below:

Outcome Value of X
{1,2} 2
{1,4} 4
{1,6} 6
{1,7} 7
{2,4} 4
{2,6} 6
{2,7} 7
{4,6} 6
{4,7} 7
{6,7} 7






129


The probability distribution for X is given by:

Value of X ( ) [ ] f x P X x = =
2 1/10
4 2/10
6 3/10
7 4/10


5.11 (a) Possible values of X are 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.

(b)
2 (1,1)
3 (1, 2), (2,1)
4 (1, 3), (2, 2), (3,1)
5 (1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4,1)
6 (1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5,1)
7 (1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6,1)
8 (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)
9 (3, 6), (4, 5), (5, 4), (6, 3)
10
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
= (4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)
11 (5, 6), (6, 5)
12 (6, 6)
X
X
=
=


(c) The 36 possible outcomes are equally likely so [ ] P X x = is the number of
outcomes for which X x = divided by 36. The probability distribution of X is

x ( ) f x
2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
5 4/36
6 5/36
7 6/36
8 5/36
9 4/36
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
Total 1


130 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.12 (a) No because ( ) 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.1 f x = + + + =

exceeds 1.
(b) Yes
(c) Yes
(d) No because ( ) f x must never be negative.

5.13 (a) (b)

( )
1 0
2 1/ 6
3 2 / 6
4 3/ 6
Total 1
x f x

( )
1 1/ 3
2 0
3 1/ 3
4 2/ 3
Total 2/ 3
x f x

Yes, a probability distribution. Not a probability distribution
because (1) f is negative.

(c) (d)

( )
2 0
1 2/ 20
0 4/ 20
1 6/ 20
2 8/ 20
Total 1
x f x

( )
0 8 / 15
1 8 / 30
2 2 / 15
3 1/ 15
Total 1
x f x


Yes, a probability distribution. Yes, a probability distribution.

5.14 (a)
5
1 10 1
[ 3] (3)
3 30 30 3
P X f
| |
= = = = =
|
\


(b)
5 5
1 1
[ is even] (2) (4)
2 4 30 30
10 5 15
0.5
30 30 30
P X f f
| | | |
= + = +
| |
\ \
= + = =


131


5.15 Since
1 1
( ) , ( )
2 2
P B P C = = and purchases in different weeks are independent, the
probability model is the same as that for three tosses of a fair coin. Each
elementary outcome has probability
1
8
. Therefore

2 4 2
[ 0] , [ 1] , [ 2] .
8 8 8
P X P X P X = = = = = =

The probability distribution of X is

( )
0 1/ 4
1 1/ 2
2 1/ 4
x f x




5.16 Assuming each choice of device is equally likely, we have for As choice
1
( ) ( )
2
P B P C = = , for Bs choice
1
( ) ( )
2
P A P C = = , etc. Further assuming that
different persons choices are independent, we obtain

1 1 1 1
( )
2 2 2 8
P BAA = =
Obviously all the elementary outcomes have the same probability
1
8
.
2 4 2
[ 0] , [ 4] , [ 2]
8 8 8
P X P X P X = = = = = =

The probability distribution of X is
( )
0 1/ 4
1 1/ 2
2 1/ 4
x f x








132 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.17 Let A be the event person remembers commercial two hours later.
We are given that ( ) 0.20 P A = . Take a 4-sample, and let X = number who
remember the commercial. Using independence, we derive the probability
distribution of X as follows:

4
3
2 2
3
4
( )
( ) 1(0.80) 0.4096
0
( ) 4(0.20)(0.80) 0.4096
1
( ) 6(0.20) (0.80) 0.1536
2
3 ( ) 4(0.20) (0.80) 0.0256
4 ( ) 1(0.20) 0.0016
Total 1
x f x
P AA A A
P AA A A
P AA A A
P AA A A
P AA AA
= =
= =
= =
= =
= =


5.18 Let X = sum of ratings of two games. The possible outcomes are {9,9}, {9,10},
and {10,10}. We compute the probability of each outcome as follows:
2 1 2 2 3 3 2 12
({9, 9}) 0.1, ({9,10}) 0.6,
5 4 20 5 4 5 4 20
3 2 6
({10,10}) 0.3
5 4 20
P P
P
= = = = + = =
= = =

The probability distribution of X is given by:
( )
18 0.1
19 0.6
20 0.3
Total 1
x f x


5.19 (a) Since 3 1 1 1 1 3 10 + + + + + = , the probabilities of the six faces numbered 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6 are
3 1 1 1 1 3
, , , , ,
10 10 10 10 10 10
, respectively. The probability distribution
of X is
( )
1 0.3
2 0.1
3 0.1
4 0.1
5 0.1
6 0.3
Total 1
x f x

(b) [Even number] (2) (4) (6) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 P f f f = + + = + + = .
133


5.20 (a) The possible values of X are 0, 1, 2, 3.

(b) Denoting a correct answer by C and a wrong answer by W, the elementary
outcomes are given in the following table. For instance, CWC denotes the
elementary outcomes that the first and third questions were answered correctly
and the second was wrong. In order to calculate the probabilities we note:

for the first question
1 3
( ) , ( )
4 4
P C P W = =
for the second question
1 2
( ) , ( )
3 3
P C P W = =
for the third question
1 1
( ) , ( )
2 2
P C P W = =

Assuming the choices of answers to different questions to be independent, we
multiply the ( ) P C and ( ) P W values according to the positions where C and W
appear. For instance,

1 2 1 2
( )
4 3 2 24
P CWC = = .

Elementary outcome Probability Value of
1 1 1 1
3
4 3 2 24
1 1 1 1
2
4 3 2 24
1 2 1 2
2
4 3 2 24
3 1 1 3
2
4 3 2 24
1 2 1 2
1
4 3 2 24
3 1 1 3
1
4 3 2 24
3 2 1 6
1
4 3 2 24
3 2 1 6
0
4 3 2 24
X
CCC
CCW
CWC
WCC
CWW
WCW
WWC
WWW
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=


The probability distribution of X is
134 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


( )
0 6/ 24
1 11/ 24
2 6/ 24
3 1/ 24
Total 1
x f x


(c)
11 6 1 18 3
[ 1] (1) (2) (3) .
24 24 24 24 4
P X f f f = + + = + + = =
(d) The probability histogram of X is given by:

5.21 Since [ is odd] (1) (3) (5) 0.1 0 0.3 0.4 P X f f f = + + = + + = we have
[ is even] 1 .4 .6 P X = = , that is, (2) (4) (6) 0.6 f f f + + = . Now, in order that
(2), (4) f f and (6) f are all equal, and their total is 0.6, we must have
(2) 0.2, (4) 0.2, (6) 0.2 f f f = = = . Thus, the probability distribution of X is given
below.

( )
1 0.1
2 0.2
3 0
4 0.2
5 0.3
6 0.2
Total 1
x f x


135


5.22 Because 100 cards are equally likely to be selected, and there are 25 cards that are
numbered 1, the probability of getting a card with the number 1 is
25
0.25
100
= .
Hence [ 1] .25 P X = = . Similarly,


35 30
[ 2] 0.35, [ 3] 0.30,
100 100
P X P X = = = = = = and
10
[ 4] 0.10
100
P X = = = .

The probability distribution of X is

( )
1 0.25
2 0.35
3 0.30
4 0.10
Total 1.00
x f x


5.23 (a) Consider random selection of one ball from an urn that contains the following
mix of 100 numbered balls: 32 balls are numbered 2, 44 balls are numbered 4,
and 24 balls are numbered 6. If X denotes the number on the selected ball, then
the probability distribution of X would be as given in Table (a).

(b) Consider random selection of one ball from an urn that contains the following
mix of 14 numbered balls: 3 balls are numbered 2 , 4 balls are numbered 0, 5
balls are numbered 4, and 2 balls are numbered 5. If X denotes the number on
the selected ball, then the probability distribution of X would be as given in
Table (b).

5.24 The number of mice dying in the 1st year 120 106 14 = =
The number of mice dying in the 2nd year 106 72 34 = =
The number of mice dying in the 3rd year 72 25 47 = =
The number of mice dying in the 4th year 25 0 25 = =
Total 120 =

To cast in discrete units of whole years, we assume that all deaths in a year occur at
the end of the year. The possible values of X = life length are 1, 2, 3, 4 (years).
Then the relative frequencies of [ 1], [ 2], [ 3], X X X = = = and [ 4] X = are
14 34 47
, , ,
120 120 120
and
25
120
, respectively. Approximating the probabilities by the
relative frequencies, we obtain the probability distribution given in the table.

136 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


Life length (years) ( )
1 0.117
2 0.283
3 0.392
4 0.208
Total 1.000
X f x


5.25 (a) [ 3] 0.14 0.27 0.38 0.15 0.94 P X = + + + =
(b) [ 2] 1 [ 1] 1 0.15 0.85 P X P X = = =
(c) [1 3] 0.38 0.27 0.14 0.79 P X = + + = .

5.26

5 have degrees
3 do not 3 selected at random
8

The number of ways 3 persons can be chosen out of 8 is

8
8 7 6
56
3 3 2 1
| |
= =
|
\
.

Under random selection, these are equally likely. The possible values of X are 0, 1,
2, 3. 0 X = if all 3 who do not have degrees are selected, and the number of such
choices is
3
1
3
| |
=
|
\
. So,
1
[ 0]
56
P X = = .

1 X = if 1 is chosen from the 5 who have the degrees and 2 are chosen from the 3
who do not. The number of such choices is
5 3
5 3 15
1 2
| | | |
= =
| |
\ \
.
So,
15
[ 1]
56
P X = = .
Similarly,
5 3
2 1 10 3 30
[ 2]
8 56 56
3
P X
| | | |

| |
\ \
= = = =
| |
|
\
and
5
3 10
[ 3]
8 56
3
P X
| |
|
\
= = =
| |
|
\

The probability distribution of X is

137


( )
0 1/ 56
1 15/ 56
2 30 / 56
3 10/ 56
Total 1
x f x


5.27 Here X = the number of customers per day.

(a) Customers will be turned away if there are 3 or more customers. The required
probability is

[ 3] (3) (4) (5) 0.25 0.15 0.05 0.45 P X f f f = + + = + + = .

(b) The centers capacity is not fully utilized if fewer than 2 customers arrive. This
probability is
[ 1] (0) (1) 0.05 0.20 0.25 P X f f = + = + = .

(c) We see that

[ 5] 0.05 P X = = and [ 4] 0.15 0.05 0.20 0.10 P X = + = > .

Therefore, the capacity must be increased by 2. With a capacity of 4, the
probability of turning customers away is [ 5] 0.05 P X = = .

5.28 (a) We calculate the relative frequencies by dividing each frequency by the total
frequency (sample size) 361. For instance, relative frequency of [ 1] X = =
64 / 361 0.177 = . Shown below are the relative frequencies which give an
approximate determination of the probability distribution of X.

( )
1 64 / 361 0.177
2 161/ 361 0.456
3 89 / 361 0.247
4 47 / 361 0.130
Total 1.01
x f x
=
=
=
=


(b) The relative frequencies are subject to variation on different occasions of
sampling. The probabilities could be correctly obtained only by sampling the
entire population.

138 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


(c) The probability histogram of X is given below.

0.177
0.456
0.247
0.13
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1 2 3 4
x
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


5.29 (a) The probability histogram of X is given below.
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
1 2 3 4
x
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


(b) The calculation is given in the following table:
139


2
2
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 0.1 0.1 2 0.4
2 0.2 0.4 1 0.2
3 0.3 0.9 0 0
4 0.4 1.6 1 0.4
Total 3.0 1.0
x f x xf x x x f x

= =


So,
2
( ) 3, 1.0, 1.0 E X = = =

5.30 The calculation is given in the following table:

2
2
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 0.3 0.6 2 1.2
4 0.5 2.0 0 0
6 0.1 0.6 2 0.4
8 0.1 0.8 4 1.6
Total 4.0 3.2
x f x xf x x x f x

= =


3.2 1.789 = =

5.31 Let X denote the carpenters net profit. Then $5, 000 X = with probability 0.2 and
$86 X = (loss) with probability 1 0.2 0.8 = . The probability distribution is
shown in the table along with the calculation of expectation.

( ) ( )
86 0.8 68.80
5, 000 0.2 1000.00
Total 1 931.20 ( )
x f x xf x
E X

=


So, the expected return $931.20. =

5.32 (a) & (b) We present the probability distribution of X in a table and calculate the
expectation. As shown in the table, the probability of winning $20 or over is

0.002 0.0002 0.000004 0.000001 0.002205 + + + = .

Hence, the probability of winning nothing ($0) is 1 0.002205 0.997795 = which is
the entry for (0) f in the table

140 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


( ) ( )
0 0.997795 0
20 0.002 0.04
100 0.0002 0.02
5, 000 0.000004 0.02
50, 000 0.000001 0.05
0.13
x f x xf x
=


Thus, expected winnings $0.13 = or 13 cents.

5.33

2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.0256 0 0
1 0.1536 0.1536 0.1536
2 0.3456 0.6912 1.3824
3 0.3456 1.0368 3.1104
4 0.1296 0.5184 2.0736
Total 2.4 6.72
x f x xf x x f x



2 2
2.4
6.72 2.4 0.96, 0.96 0.980

=
= = = =


5.34

2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.05 0 0
1 0.20 0.20 0.20
2 0.30 0.60 1.2
3 0.25 0.75 2.25
4 0.15 0.60 2.40
5 0.05 0.25 1.25
Total 2.40 7.3
x f x xf x x f x



2 2
2.40
7.3 (2.40) 1.54, 1.54 1.241

=
= = = =




141


5.35 (a) We denote win by W and not win by N, and attach suffixes A or B to
identify the project. Listed here are the possible outcomes and calculation of
the corresponding probabilities. For instance,

( ) ( ) ( ), by independence
0.50 0.35 0.175
A B A B
P W N P W P N =
= =


Outcome Probability
0.50 0.65 0.325
0.50 0.35 0.175
0.50 0.65 0.325
0.50 0.35 0.175
A B
A B
A B
A B
W W
W N
N W
N N
=
=
=
=


(b) & (c) The amounts of profit (X) for the various outcomes are listed below.

Outcome Profit ($)
75, 000 120, 000 195, 000
75, 000
120, 000
0
A B
A B
A B
A B
X
W W
W N
N W
N N
+ =


In the next table, we present the probability distribution of X and calculate ( ) E X .

( ) ( )
0 0.175 0
75, 000 0.175 13,125
120, 000 0.325 39, 000
195, 000 0.325 63, 375
Total 115, 500 ( )
x f x xf x
E X =


Expected net profit ( ) cost $115, 500 $2, 000 $113, 500 E X = = = .

5.36 (a) Here the outcomes of the two bids are not independent. We use the conditional
probabilities and the multiplication law:

( ) ( ) ( | ) 0.50 0.80 0.40
( ) ( ) ( | ) 0.50 0.20 0.10
( ) ( ) ( | ) 0.50 0.40 0.20
( ) ( ) ( | ) 0.50 0.60 0.30
A B A B A
A B A B A
A B A B A
A B A B A
P W W P W P W W
P W N P W P N W
P N W P N P W N
P N N P N P N N
= = =
= = =
= = =
= = =

142 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS



(b) & (c) The following table shows the probability distribution of X and
calculation of ( ) E X .

( ) ( )
0 0.30 0
75, 000 0.10 7, 500
120, 000 0.20 24, 000
195, 000 0.40 78, 000
Total 109, 500 ( )
x f x xf x
E X =


Expected net profit $109, 500 $2, 000 $107, 500 = = .

5.37 (a) & (b) The expectation and standard deviation of X are calculated in the
following table.

2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.315 0 0
1 0.289 0.289 0.289
2 0.201 0.402 0.804
3 0.114 0.342 1.026
4 0.063 0.252 1.008
5 0.012 0.060 0.300
6 0.006 0.036 0.216
Total 1.381 3.643
x f x xf x x f x


( ) or 1.381 E X =

2 2
Var( ) or 3.643 (1.381) 1.736 X = =
Standard deviation of X is 1.736 1.318 = = .

5.38 To tabulate the probability distribution, we calculate the function ( ) f x for
1, 2, 3, 4 x =
12 1 12 12 1 6
(1) , (2)
25 1 25 25 2 25
12 1 4 12 1 3
(3) , (4)
25 3 25 25 4 25
f f
f f
= = = =
= = = =


We check that (1) (2) (3) (4) 1 f f f f + + + = so the given function is a legitimate
probability function.
143



Calculation of mean and sd
2
( ) ( ) ( )
1 12/ 25 0.48 0.48
2 12/ 50 0.48 0.96
3 12/ 75 0.48 1.44
4 12/100 0.48 1.92
Total 1 1.92 4.80
x f x xf x x f x



2 2
1.92
4.80 (1.92) 1.114
1.055

=
= =
=

5.39 (a) To tabulate the probability distribution, we calculate the function ( ) f x for
0, 1, 2, 3 x = .
5 4
1 4
(0)
0 3 84 84
5 4
1 5 6 30
(1)
1 2 84 84 84
5 4
1 10 4 40
(2)
2 1 84 84 84
5 4
1 10
(3)
3 0 84 84
f
f
f
f
| | | |
= =
| |
\ \
| | | |
= = =
| |
\ \
| | | |
= = =
| |
\ \
| | | |
= =
| |
\ \


2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 4/ 84 0 0
1 30/ 84 30/ 84 30/ 84
2 40/ 84 80/ 84 160/ 84
3 10/ 84 30/ 84 90/ 84
Total 1 140/ 84 280/ 84
x f x xf x x f x


(b) Referring to the calculations shown in the table in part (a), we find


2
140
mean 1.667
84
280 140
variance 0.556
84 84
standard deviation 0.556 0.745.
= =
| |
= =
|
\
= =
144 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS



5.40 (a) We calculate the values of 8 2 Y X = corresponding to the values of X and list
along with the probabilities ( ) f x . The y-values and the corresponding
probabilities are then listed in the table on the right which is the given Y-
distribution.

8 2 ( )
1 6 0.1
2 4 0.3
3 2 0.4
4 0 0.2
x y x f x =

( )
0 0.2
2 0.4
4 0.3
6 0.1
y f y

(b)
2
( ) ( ) ( )
1 0.1 0.1 0.1
2 0.3 0.6 1.2
3 0.4 1.2 3.6
4 0.2 0.8 3.2
Total 2.7 8.1
x f x xf x x f x



2 2
2.7
8.1 (2.7) 0.81, and 0.81 0.9
X
X X

=
= = = =


(c)
2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.2 0 0
2 0.4 0.8 1.6
4 0.3 1.2 4.8
6 0.1 0.6 3.6
Total 2.6 10.0
y f y y f y y f y



2 2
2.6
10.0 (2.6) 3.24, and 3.24 1.8
Y
Y X

=
= = = =


(d) Since 8 2 Y X = , we should have

8 2 8 2(2.7) 2.6
| 2 | 2(.9) 1.8
Y X
Y X


= = =
= = =

These results agree with the results of part (c).
145


5.41 (a) & (b) Let us use the symbol S for a sale and N for no sale at a customer
contact. For contact with 4 customers, we list the elementary outcomes. In
assigning the probabilities we use the assumption of independence and the facts
that ( ) 0.3, ( ) 0.7 P S P N = = . For instance,
( ) 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0441 P SNNS = = .

4
3
2 2
Elementary outcome Probability Value of
(0.7) 0.2401
(0.7) (0.3) 0.1029
0.1029
0.1029
0.1029
(0.7) (0.3) 0.0441
0.0441
0.0441
0.0441
0.0441
0.0
X
NNNN
NNNS
NNSN
NSNN
SNNN
NNSS
NSNS
SNNS
NSSN
SNSN
SSNN
NSSS
SNSS
SSNS
SSSN
SSSS
=
=
=
3
4
0
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2 441
3 0.7 (0.3) 0.0189
3 0.0189
3 0.0189
3 0.0189
4 (0.3) 0.0081
Total 1.0000
=
=


[ 0] 0.2401, [ 1] 4 0.1029 0.4116
[ 2] 6 0.0441 0.2646, [ 3] 4 0.0189 0.0756
[ 4] 0.0081
P X P X
P X P X
P X
= = = = =
= = = = = =
= =


Probability distribution of X and calculation of expectation

146 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


( ) ( )
0 0.2401 0
1 0.4116 0.4116
2 0.2646 0.5292
3 0.0756 0.2268
4 0.0081 0.0324
Total 1.0000 1.2000
x f x xf x


(c) ( ) 1.2 E X = .

5.42 Noting that 2000 Y X = , the following sets the correspondence between the x
values and y values

0 1 2 3 4
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
x
y


Probability distribution of Y and calculation of ( ) E Y
( ) ( )
0 0.2401 0
2000 0.4116 823.2
4000 0.2646 1058.4
6000 0.0756 453.6
8000 0.0081 64.8
Total 1.0000 2400.0 ( )
y f y yf y
E Y =

We have obtained ( ) 2400 E Y = . Also 2000 ( ) 2000 1.2 2400 E X = = .

5.43 [ 2] 0.1 0.2 0.3 P X = + = and [ 2] 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 P X = + + =
The median is therefore between 2 and 3.

5.44 (a) The second distribution, the one for Y, has more spread.

147


(b) mean of 1 0.2 2 0.6 3 0.2 2.0 X = + + =

mean of 0 0.1 1 0.2 2 0.4 3 0.2 4 0.1 2.0 Y = + + + + =

(c) Variance of
2 2 2
(1 2) 0.2 (2 2) 0.6 (3 2) 0.2 0.4 X = + + =

Variance of Y is

2 2 2 2
(0 2) 0.1 (1 2) 0.2 (2 2) 0.4 (3 2) 0.2 + + +
2
(4 2) 0.1 1.2 + = ,
so the standard deviations are ( ) 0.632 sd X = and ( ) 1.095. sd Y = The second
distribution has a larger standard deviation.

5.45 (a) The Bernoulli model is not appropriate. The assumption of independence is
likely to be violated because of peer pressure.

(b) The Bernoulli model is not appropriate because the measurement is on a
continuous scale.

(c) The Bernoulli model may be appropriate because there are only two possible
outcomes. Independence may be violated for items close together.

(d) Here, each house is a trial with the two possible outcomes: the delivery was on
time or was not. However, the Bernoulli model does not seem plausible
because of a lack of independence of the trials.

5.46 (a) Not a model of Bernoulli trials because there are more than two possible
outcomes with the rolling of a die.

(b) The model of Bernoulli trials is appropriate as we are concerned only with the
two events occurrence or non-occurrence of the number 6. Identifying the
occurrence of 6 as a success, we have
1
( ) .
6
p P S = =
(c) Here, each trial consists of rolling two fair dice. The model of Bernoulli trials is
not appropriate because there are more than two possible outcomes for the sum
of the points that show up.
(d) Here, each trial consists of rolling two fair dice, and the events of interest are:
doubles (identify this as a success), not doubles (identify this as a failure). The
trials are independent. To determine p we note that there are 36 equally likely
outcomes with the rolling of two dice, and doubles are obtained if the outcome
is (1,1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5) or (6, 6) . Consequently,
6 1
.
36 6
p = =

(e) The model of Bernoulli trials is appropriate for the reason explained in part (b).
However, p = the probability of getting a 6 is not necessarily
1
6
if the die is
148 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


loaded. As to the determination of p, we must roll the die a large number of
times, and take the relative frequency of the number 6 as an approximate value
of p.

5.47 Since the event of interest is the drawing of a yellow candy, we identify S =yellow,
F = any color other than yellow.

(a) Because the sampling is with replacement, and each draw has two possible
outcomes S or F, the model of Bernoulli trials is appropriate. The mix has 25
candies of which 12 are yellow so the probability of drawing a yellow candy is
12
0.48.
25
= We have 0.48 p = .

(b) The model of Bernoulli trials is not appropriate because the sampling is without
replacement and the size of the lot is not large. The condition of independence
of the trials is violated.

(c) The condition of independence of outcomes in the different trials is violated.
For instance,
2 1
13
( | )
26
P S S = while
2 1
12
( | )
26
P S F = . The model of Bernoulli
trials is not appropriate.

5.48 (a) The model of Bernoulli trials is appropriate as was reasoned in part (a) of
Exercise 5.47. Also,
1200
0.48.
2500
p = =

(b) The model of Bernoulli trials is a plausible approximation. Here a violation of
independence of the trials is not serious because only a small number, 4, of
candies are drawn from a very large lot of size 2500 it makes very little
difference if we sample with or without replacement. Take 0.48. p =

(c) The model of Bernoulli trials is a plausible approximation because only 4
drawings are made from a large lot of 2500. Although the probability of
success at a particular trial depends on the outcomes of the previous trials, the
changes are negligible. For instance,
2 1
1201
( | )
2501
P S S = while
2 1
1200
( | )
2501
P S F = ,
and each is approximately 0.48 . p =


5.49 Label the plots 1, 2, 3 and 4. The number of possible selections of 2 plots out of 4
is
4
6
2
| |
=
|
\
, and these are equally likely.

149


(a) Consider the event of an S in the first trial, that is, the first plot is selected. One
other plot can be chosen from plots 2, 3, and 4 in
3
3
1
| |
=
|
\
ways. Therefore,
3 1
( in first trial) .
6 2
P S = =
The same argument leads to
1
( )
2
P S = in any particular trial.

(b) Denote
1 2
S S = the event that the first and second plots are selected. We have
1 2
1
( )
6
P S S = . From part (a), we find that
1 2 1 2
1 1 1
( ) ( ) ( )
2 2 4
P S P S P S S = =
Therefore, the trials are not independent.


5.50 (a) For each trial, ( ) P S is the same as the probability of getting ahead when tossing
a fair coin. Hence,
1
( )
2
P S = for each trial.

(b) The trials are independent because the outcomes of different tosses of a coin are
independent.


5.51 (a) Although there are two possible outcomes of each trial, the Bernoulli model is
not appropriate because the 5 purchases of each consumer cannot be considered
independent.

(b) Here the Bernoulli model is plausible because the 500 trials correspond to
different consumers who are selected at random.




5.52 Denote the outcomes: lights (L), and does not light (N). We have
( ) 0.98, ( ) 0.02. P L P N = =

(a) P[at least one flare lights out of 3] 1 [none lights] P =

3
1 ( ) 1 (0.02) 0.999992. P NNN = = =

(b) The event exactly two lights consists of the elementary outcomes LLN, LNL,
and NLL. Each of these has the probability
2
(0.98) (0.02). So, the required
probability is
2
3(0.98) (0.02) 0.0576. =
150 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS



5.53 We have ( ) 0.3, ( ) 1 0.3 0.7. P S p P F q = = = = =

(a)
4
( ) 0.7 0.2401 P FFFF = =

(b) Because the trials are independent, the required conditional probability is the
same as the (unconditional) probability of 4 trials resulting in all successes,
which is ( )
4
( ) 0.3 0.0081 P SSSS = =
(c)
3
( ) (0.7) (0.3) 0.1029 P FFFS = =

5.54 Given that
3
[ ] 0.064, P SSS p = = we have 0.4, 1 0.4 0.6 p q = = = so
3 3
[ ] (0.6) 0.2160. P FFF q = = =

5.55 (a) ( ) (0.10)(0.90)(0.90)(0.10)(0.90) 0.00729 P SFFSF = =
(b)
5
(exactly 2 ' s) 0.00729 0.0729
2
P S
| |
= =
|
\
.

5.56 Let S be the event that a presentation results in a sale.
We are given that
1
( )
4
P S = .
(a)
( )
(exactly 3 of 4 presentations results in a sale) 4
3 1 1 1 3
4
4 4 4 4 64
P P SSSS =
(
= =
(


since any one of the presentations could have been the one which did not results
in a sale.
(b)
( )
4
3 81
4 256
P SSSS
| |
= =
|
\


5.57 (a) The possible results in the first two trials are SS, SD, DS, DD. If SS occurs, the
experiment is stopped. With SD, there is one more trial so we have either SDS
or SDD. Proceeding in this way, the complete list is

{ , , , , , , , , } SS SDS SDD DSS DSD DDSS DDSD DDDS DDDD

(b) We have ( ) 1/ 4, ( ) 3/ 4 P S P D = =

151


2
2
Outcome Probability Value of
2 (1/ 4) 1/16
2 (1/ 4) (3/ 4) 3/ 64
1 9/ 64
2 3/ 64
1 9/ 64
2 9/ 256
1 27 / 256
1 27 / 256
0 81/ 256
X
SS
SDS
SDD
DSS
DSD
DDSS
DDSD
DDDS
DDDD
=
=


(c) The probability distribution of X is:
( )
0 81/ 256
1 126/ 256
2 49/ 256
Total 1
x f x


5.58 Identify S : Allergy present, F : Allergy absent

(a) Here p = the population proportion of individuals having the allergy
0.16 0.09 0.25 = + =
So, 0.75 q = and thus.
4
( ) (0.75) 0.316 P FFFF = = .

(b) Here p = the population proportion of males having the allergy
[Allergy present | Male] P = , a conditional probability

0.16 16 36
,
0.16 0.36 52 52
q = = =
+

So,
4
36
( ) 0.230
52
P FFFF
| |
= =
|
\
.
(c)
2
36
[none of the 2 males has allergy] ,
52
P
| |
=
|
\
as in part (b)

2
39
[none of the 2 females has allergy]
48
P
| |
=
|
\

By independence of the two sampling, the required probability is
2 2
36 39
0.316
52 48
| | | |
=
| |
\ \

152 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.59 (a) Yes.
1
10,
6
n p = =

(b) No, because the number of trials is not fixed.

(c) Yes. 3, n = and p is the probability of getting a marble numbered either 1 or 2
in a single draw so
4 3
0.7.
10
p
+
= =

(d) No, because X does not represent a count of the number of times that an event
occurs.

5.60 We make a tree diagram:

The probability distribution of X is:

3 2 2 3
0 1 2 3
( ) 3 3
x
f x q pq p q p






5.61 (a) With 3, 0.35, 0.65 n p q = = = we obtain
2
3
[ 2] (0.35) (0.65) 0.2389
2
P X
| |
= = =
|
\

(b) 6, 0.25, 0.75 n p q = = =
3 3
6
[ 3] (0.25) (0.75) 0.132
3
P X
| |
= = =
|
\

(c) 6, 0.75, 0.25 n p q = = =
153


2 4
6
[ 2] (0.75) (0.25) 0.033
2
P X
| |
= = =
|
\

5.62 (a) & (b) We use the binomial table.

(i) 5, 0.2 n p = = (ii) 5, 0.5 n p = = (iii) 5, 0.8 n p = =


( )
0 0.328
1 0.409
2 0.205
3 0.051
4 0.007
5 0.000
x f x

( )
0 0.031
1 0.157
2 0.312
3 0.313
4 0.156
5 0.031
x f x

( )
0 0.000
1 0.007
2 0.051
3 0.205
4 0.409
5 0.328
x f x


mean 1.0 np = mean 2.5 = mean 4.0 =

The distributions are shown here.


(c)
0.007 0.000 0.007 for (i)
[ 4] (4) (5) 0.156 0.031 0.187 for (ii)
0.409 0.328 0.737 for (iii)
P X f f
+ =

= + = + =

+ =

5.63 4, 0.35 n p = =

4
4
( ) (0.35) (0.65)
x x
f x
x

| |
=
|
\
, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
The calculation of ( ) f x is presented in the following table:

154 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


4
3
2 2
3
4
( )
0 0.1785 1(0.65)
1 0.3845 4(0.35)(0.65)
2 0.3105 6(0.35) (0.65)
3 0.1115 4(0.35) (0.65)
4 0.0150 1(0.35)
Total 1.0000
x f x
=
=
=
=
=


(a) [ 3] (0) (1) (2) (3) 0.985 P X f f f f = + + + =
(b) [ 3] (3) (4) 0.1265 P X f f = + =
(c) [ 2 or 4] (2) (4) 0.3255 P X X f f = = = + =

5.64 Scanning the table of the probability distribution, we see that the highest ( ) f x value
0.3845 corresponds to 1 x = . The most probable value of X, that is, the mode 1. =

5.65 4, 0.75, 0.25 n p q = = =
4
4
( ) (0.75) (0.25) , 0,1, 2, 3, 4
x x
f x x
x

| |
= =
|
\

To calculate the required probabilities, it would be convenient to calculate all the
( ) f x values.
4
3
2 2
3
4
( )
0 0.0039 (0.25)
1 0.0469 4(0.75)(0.25)
2 0.2109 6(0.75) (0.25)
3 0.4219 4(0.75) (0.25)
4 0.3164 (0.75)
Total 1.0000
x f x
=
=
=
=
=

(a) [ 3] (3) (4) 0.7383 P X f f = + =
(b) [ 3] 1 (4) 0.6836 P X f = =
(c) ( ) ( ) 0(0.0039) 1(0.0469) 2(0.2109) 3(0.4219) 4(0.3164) 3 E X xf x = = + + + + =

5.66 5, 0.26, 0.74 n p q = = =
( ) ( )
5
5
( ) 0.26 0.74 , 0,1, 2, 3, 4, 5
x x
f x x
x
| |
= =
|
\


155


5
4
2 3
3 2
4
5
( )
(0.74) 0 0.2219
5(0.26)(0.74) 1 0.3898
10(0.26) (0.74) 2 0.2739
10(0.26) (0.74) 3 0.0962
4 0.0169 5(0.26) (0.74)
5 0.0012
(0.26)
Total 0.9999
x f x
=
=
=
=
=
=


(a) [ 2] (2) (3) (4) (5) 0.3882 P X f f f f = + + + =
(b) [ 2] (0) (1) (2) 0.8856 P X f f f = + + =
(c) ( ) ( ) 1.2998 E X xf x = =

5.67 Identify S : severe leaf damage.

X =Number of trees with severe leaf damage in a random sample of 5 trees.

X has a binomial distribution with 5, 0.15, 0.85. n p q = = =
( ) ( )
5
5
( ) 0.15 0.85 , 0, 1, ..., 5
x x
f x x
x
| |
= =
|
\

(a)
3 2
5
[ 3] (3) (0.15) (0.85) 0.024
3
P X f
| |
= = = =
|
\

(b) [ 2] (0) (1) (2) 0.974. P X f f f = + + =


5.68 Identify S : Rh-positive

X = Number of Rh-positive individuals in a random sample of 8 persons.

X has a binomial distribution with 8, 0.85, 0.15. n p q = = =
( ) ( )
8
8
( ) 0.85 0.15 , 0, 1, ..., 8
x x
f x x
x
| |
= =
|
\

(a) [ 6] (6) (7) (8) 0.8948 P X f f f = + + =
(b) Since at most 3 failures means 5 or more successes, the required probability
is [ 5] (5) (6) (7) (8) 0.9786. P X f f f f = + + + =




156 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.69 (a) We use the binomial table for 13, 0.3. n p = =

[ 4] [ 4] [ 3]
0.654 0.421 0.233
P X P X P X = =
= =


(b) 8 failures in 13 trials means 5 successes in 13 trials. We use the binomial
table for 13, 0.7 n p = =

[ 5] 0.018 0.004 0.014 P X = = =

(c) Using the binomial table for 13, 0.3, n p = = we obtain

[ 8] 0.996 0.982 0.014 P X = = =

Refer to (b), and consider interchanging the names success and failure. Then
the new p would be .3, (i.e., the old q), and the specified event would then be 8
successes in 13 trials which is precisely the statement in part (c).

5.70 (a) 12, 0.10
[ 1] 0.659
n p
P X
= =
=


(b) 12, 0.1
[ 2] 1 [ 1] 1 0.659 0.341
n p
P X P X
= =
= = =


(c) 12, 0.10 n p = =
( ) 12(0.10) 1.2 E X np = = =

(d) 20, 0.10
[ 1] 0.3918
n p
P X
= =
=


5.71 (a) Denote X = number of successes in 5 trials.

The event more than 5 trials are needed in order to obtain 3 successes means
that at most two successes are obtained in 5 trials, that is, 2. X Since X has
the binomial distribution with 5, 0.30, n p = = we use the binomial table to find
the required probability
[ 2] 0.837. P X =

(b) The stated event is equivalent to at most 4 successes in 9 trials, that is,
4 X where X denotes the number of successes in 9 trials. Using the binomial
table with 9, 0.30, n p = = we find the required probability
[ 4] 0.902 P X =
157


5.72 Denoting S : physical examination in the past two years,

20, n = number of women randomly sampled,
X = number of Ss in 20 trials,

X has the binomial distribution with 20, 0.7 n p = =

(a) [ 14] [ 13] 0.392 P X P X < = =
(b) [ 17] 1 [ 16] 1 0.893 0.107. P X P X = = =

5.73 Mean , np sd npq = =

(a) Mean 20 0.75 15, 20 0.75 0.25 1.936 sd = = = =
(b) Mean 20 0.10 2, 20 0.10 0.90 1.342 sd = = = =
(c) Mean 40 0.30 12, 40 0.30 0.70 2.898 sd = = = =

5.74 (a) & (b) We use the binomial table ( 3, 0.6 n p = = ) to list the probability
distribution, and then calculate
2
( ), ( ), E X E X and Var( ) X

2 2
0 1 2 3 Total
( ) 0.064 0.288 0.432 0.216 1
( ) 0 0.288 0.864 0.648 1.80 ( )
( ) 0 0.288 1.728 1.944 3.960 ( )
x
f x
xf x E X
x f x E X
=
=

2 2 2
Var( ) ( ) [ ( )] 3.960 (1.80) 0.72
( ) 0.72 0.849
X E X E X
sd X
= = =
= =


(c) 3 0.6 1.8 np = =
3 0.6 0.4 0.72 0.849. npq = = =

5.75 Denote X = number of college seniors in support of increased funding, in a random
sample of 20 seniors.

Then, X has the binomial distribution with 20, 0.2. n p = = We find
[ 3] 0.411. P X =

5.76 (a) ( ) 20 0.2 4.0 E X np = = =
(b) [ 4] 0.630 0.411 0.219. P X = = =



158 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.77 545, 0.09, 0.91
mean 49.05
6.681
n p q
np
sd npq
= = =
= =
= =


5.78 (a) Identify S : an RY-offspring
Denote X = number of Ss in 130 trials
Then, X is binomial with
9 9
130, .
9 3 3 1 16
n p = = =
+ + +


9
( ) 130 73.125
16
E X np = = =

9 7
( ) 130 5.656
16 16
sd X npq = = =

(b) Identify S : an WG-offspring
Denote Y = number of Ss in 85 trials
Then, Y has the binomial distribution with 85 n = and
1 1
9 3 3 1 16
p = =
+ + +

1
( ) 85 5.3125
16
E Y = =
1 15
( ) 85 2.2317.
16 16
sd Y npq = = =

5.79 (a) X has the binomial distribution with 40 n = and

[Allergy present] 0.16 0.09 0.25 p P = = + =

Therefore,
( ) 40 0.25 10
( ) 40 0.25 0.75 2.739
E X
sd X
= =
= =


(b) Y has the binomial distribution with 40 n = and

0.16 16
[Allergy present | Male]
0.16 0.36 52
p P = = =
+


Therefore,
16
( ) 40 12.308
52
16 36
( ) 40 2.919
52 52
E Y
sd Y
= =
= =


159


(c) Z has the binomial distribution with 40 n = and
0.39 39
[Allergy absent | Female]
0.09 0.39 48
p P = = =
+

Therefore,
39
( ) 40 32.5
48
39 9
( ) 40 2.469
48 48
E Z
sd Z
= =
= =


5.80 Minitab binomial 12, 0.67 n p = =

(a) [ 8] 0.5973 P X = , [ 8] 0.2384 P X = =
(b) 35, 0.43, [10 15] 0.5372 n p P X = = =

5.81 (a) With 20, 0.4, n p = =


[ 4 or 13] [ 4] (1 [ 12])
0.051 (1 0.979) 0.072
P X X P X P X = +
= + =


(b) [ 3 or 12] [ 3] (1 [ 11])
0.016 (1 0.943) 0.073
P X X P X P X = +
= + =


5.82 (a) From the example, the center line is at
0
0.4, p = the lower control limit is 0.07
and the upper control limit is 0.73.

(b) The corresponding proportions 0.6, 0.5, 0.75, 0.55, and 0.8 are graphed below.


(c) The proportions 0.75 and 0.8, for the third and fifth weeks, are out of control.
160 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.83 (a) The center line is at
0
0.5, p = and the lower and upper control limits are
0.5 0.5
0.5 3 0.165
20

= and
0.5 0.5
0.5 3 0.835
20

+ =

(b) The corresponding proportions 0.4, 0.55, 0.35, 0.75, and 0.5 are graphed below.


(c) There are no restaurants for which the proportion is out of control.

5.84 (a) From Exercise 5.83, the lower limit is 0.165 and the upper limit is 0.835. Since,

0.165
20
x
only if 20 0.165 3.3 x =
and
0.165
20
x
only if 20 0.835 16.7 x =

we see that the unusual values are 0, 1, 2, 3 and 17, 18, 19, 20.

(b) When 20, 0.5, n p = =
[ 3 17] [ 3] (1 [ 16]) P X or X P X P X = + 0.001 (1 0.999) 0.002 = + =

5.85 The new control limits are


0.5 0.5
0.5 3 0.194
24

= and
0.5 0.5
0.5 3 0.806
24

+ =

and the p chart is given below.
161





The sample proportion 22/ 24 0.917 = is clearly out of control. We strongly suspect
the restaurant of consistently selling under weight hamburgers.

5.86 (a) Possible values of X are 3, 1, 1, 3.
(b) 3 : X TTT =
1 : , , X HTT THT TTH =
1 : , , X HHT HTH THH =
3 : X HHH =

5.87 Possible outcomes are: ( , ), ( , ), ( , ), ( , ) F F F M M F M M
(Here the first entry in each ordered pair refers to the person chosen from List 1,
while the second entry refers to the person chosen from List 2.)

Let X = number of females selected in two choices.

(a)
Value of Elementary Outcome
0 ( , )
1 ( , ), ( , )
2 ( , )
x
M M
F M M F
F F



162 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


(b) Now, we compute the probability of each outcome and use this information to
produce the probability distribution of X:


8 10 2
( , )
20 30 15
P F F = =
12 20 2
( , )
20 30 5
P M M = =

8 20 4
( , )
20 30 15
P F M = =
12 10 1
( , )
20 30 5
P M F = =


2 4 1 7 2
[ 0] , [ 1] , [ 2]
5 15 5 15 15
P X P X P X = = = = + = = =
Hence, the probability distribution of X is:

( )
0 2 / 5
1 7 /15
2 2 /15
Total 1.00
x f x


5.88 (a) Considering the selection of the list and the possible number of females in the
sample, the elementary outcomes are

(List 1, 0F), (List 2, 0F)
(List 1, 1F), (List 2, 1F)
(List 1, 2F), (List 2, 2F)

Using conditional probability and the multiplication law, we calculate
12
2 1 1 66
[List 1, 0 ] (List 1) (0 | List 1) 0.1737
20 2 2 190
2
P F P P F
| |
|
\
= = = =
| |
|
\

because List 1 contains 20 members of which 8 are female and 12 are male.

Similarly, we obtain
8 12
1 1 1
[List 1, 1 ] 0.2526
20 2
2
P F
| || |
| |
\ \
= =
| |
|
\

8
2 1
[List 1, 2 ] 0.0737
20 2
2
P F
| |
|
\
= =
| |
|
\


20
2 1
[List 2, 0 ] 0.2184
30 2
2
P F
| |
|
\
= =
| |
|
\

10 20
1 1 1
[List 2, 1 ] 0.2299
30 2
2
P F
| || |
| |
\ \
= =
| |
|
\

163



10
2 1
[List 2, 2 ] 0.0517
30 2
2
P F
| |
|
\
= =
| |
|
\


(b) The random variable Y, the number of females in the sample, can have the
values 0, 1, 2, and the probabilities are readily obtained by adding the
probabilities of the relevant elementary outcomes. For instance,

[ 0] [List 1, 0 ] [List 2, 0 ] 0.1737 0.2184 0.3921 P Y P F P F = = + = + =

The probability distribution of Y is

( )
0 0.3921
1 0.4825
2 0.1254
Total 1.0
y f y

5.89

18 F
32 M 2
50


32 50
496
[ 0] 0.4049
2 2 1225
P W
| | | |
= = = =
| |
\ \

18 32 50
576
[ 1] 0.4702
1 1 2 1225
P W
| || | | |
= = = =
| | |
\ \ \


18 50
153
[ 2] 0.1249
2 2 1225
P W
| | | |
= = = =
| |
\ \


The probability distribution of W is

( )
0 0.4049
1 0.4702
2 0.1249
Total 1.000
w f w


164 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.90 (a) We denote the results of the successive matches by a string of letters A and B
indicating the winner of each individual set. For instance, AABA stands for the
outcome that A wins the first two sets, B wins the third set and A wins the
fourth. In this case, the game stops at the fourth set so 4 X = . Listed below are
the possible values of X and the corresponding elementary outcomes:

3 : ,
4 : , , ,
, ,
5 : , , , , , ,
, , , , ,
X AAA
BBB
X AABA ABAA BAAA
BBAB BABB ABBB
X AABBA ABABA ABBAA BAABA BABAA BBAAA
BBAAB BABAB BAABB ABBAB ABABB AABBB
=
=
=


(Note: In each case, the outcomes in the first line correspond to A being the
winner and those in the second line correspond to B being the winner. Once the
first line is completed, the second line can be readily obtained by interchanging
the letters A and B).

(b) To calculate the probabilities we use the facts that ( ) 0.4, ( ) 0.6, P A P B = = and
the results of the different sets are independent.


3 3
[ 3] (0.4) (0.6) 0.280 P X = = + =
3 3
[ 4] 3(0.4) (0.6) 3(0.6) (0.4) 0.3744 P X = = + =

3 2 3 2
[ 5] 6(0.4) (0.6) 6(0.6) (0.4) 0.3456 P X = = + =

The probability distribution of X is

( )
3 0.2800
4 0.3744
5 0.3456
Total 1.0000
x f x


5.91 Let X = number of U.S. companies selected in a 3-sample.
The possible values of X are 0, 1, 2, and 3.

(a)
5 5 5
3 1 2 10 1 5 10 5
( 0) ( 1)
10 10 120 12 120 12
3 3
P X P X
| | | | | |
| | |

\ \ \
= = = = = = = =
| | | |
| |
\ \

165



5 5 5
2 1 3 10 5 5 10 1
( 2) ( 3)
10 10 120 12 120 12
3 3
P X P X
| || | | |
| | |

\ \ \
= = = = = = = =
| | | |
| |
\ \


The probability distribution of X is

( )
0 1/ 12
1 5/ 12
2 5/ 12
3 1/ 12
Total 1
x f x


(b)

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 5 5 1
( ) 0 1 2 3 1.5
12 12 12 12
1 5 5 1
( ) 0 1 2 3 (1.5) 0.583
12 12 12 12
0.583 0.7635
xf x
x f x

| | | | | | | |
= = + + + =
| | | |
\ \ \ \
( | | | | | | | |
= = + + + =
| | | | (
\ \ \ \
= =

5.92 (a)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 0.08 1 0.20 2 0.19 3 0.24
4(0.14) 5(0.13) 6(0.02) 2.63
xf x = = + + +
+ + + =

(b)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2
0 0.08 1 0.20 2 0.19 3 0.24
( ) (2.63)
4 (0.14) 5 (0.13) 6 (0.02)
2.4131
2.4131 1.553
x f x

( + + +
= =
(
+ + + (

=
= =

(c) The histogram is as follows:
166 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
x
p
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y


5.93 (a)
( ) ( )
0 0.3 0.0
1 0.4 0.4
2 0.3 0.6
Total 1.0 1.0
x f x xf x
=




2 2
2
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
0 1 1 0.3 0.3
1 0 0 0.4 0
2 1 1 0.3 0.3
Total 0.6
x x x f x x f x

=

0.6 0.775 = =








0 1 2 3 4 5 6
( ) E X

167


(b) The probability histogram of X with ( ) E X = located is

5.94 (a) 2.63 1.553 1.077 = =
2.63 1.553 4.183 + = + =

The interval [1.077, 4.183] includes the x-values 2, 3, and 4.

[1.077 4.183] (2) (3) (4) 0.57. P X f f f = + + =

(b) 2 3.106 =

2 2.63 3.106 or [ 0.476, 5.736] =

The interval [ 0.476, 5.736] includes all the x values except 6, so
[ 0.476 5.736] 0.98 P X =

5.95 (a) The probability that the student will get either of the two winning tickets is
2
0.002.
1000
=

(b) Consider X = dollar amount of the students winnings. The random variable X
can have the values 0 or 200 with probabilities 0.998 and 0.002, respectively.


( ) ( )
0 0.998 0
200 0.002 0.4
0.4 ( )
x f x xf x
E X =


168 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


Considering now the purchase price of $1, the students expected gain
$0.40 $1 $0.60, = = that is, expected loss $0.60. =

5.96 (a) Denoting by X player Bs winnings, we write the probability distribution and
calculate the expectation.

( ) ( )
60, 000 0.5 30, 000
15, 000 0.5 7, 500
Total 37, 500
x f x xf x
=
The expected winnings are $37,500.

(b)
( ) ( )
60, 000 0.8 48, 000
15, 000 0.2 3, 000
Total 51, 000
x f x xf x
=
The expected winnings are $51,000.


5.97 (a) [ 3] (0) (1) (2) 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.30. P X f f f < = + + = + + =

(b)
2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.05 0 0
1 0.10 0.10 0.10
2 0.15 0.30 0.60
3 0.35 1.05 3.15
4 0.20 0.80 3.20
5 0.15 0.75 3.75
Total 3.00 10.80
x f x xf x x f x
=


( ) 3.00 E X =

2 2 2 2
( ) 10.80 (3.00) 1.80 x f x = = =

1.80 1.342 = =




169


5.98 (a) We calculate
2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0.13 0 0
1 0.14 0.14 0.14
2 0.43 0.86 1.72
3 0.20 0.60 1.80
4 0.10 0.40 1.60
2.0 5.26
x f x xf x x f x
=


so the mean 2 = tickets and the standard deviation is
2
5.26 2 1.26 =
1.12 = tickets.

(b) ( ) [ 1] (1) (2) (3) (4) 0.14 0.43 0.20 0.10 0.87 P B P X f f f f = = + + + = + + + =
and the intersection [1 2] AB X = has probability ( ) (1) (2) P AB f f = + =
0.14 0.43 0.57. + = By the definition of conditional probability

( ) 0.57
[ 2 | 1] 0.655
( ) 0.87
P AB
P X X
P B
= = =

(c) Under independence, we multiply the probabilities of 0 tickets for each day.

4
[0 tickets on exactly one of 5 days] 5(0.13)(0.87) 0.372 P = =

5.99 (a) Let A, B, C denote the correct names. Listed below are the elementary
outcomes, that is, the possible assignments of names, and the corresponding
values of X = number of matches.

Correct names Value of
A B C X
A B C 3
A C B 1
Possible B A C 1
assignments B C A 0
C A B 0
C B A 1
The probability distribution is presented below along with the calculation of
its expectation.

(b) All 6 elementary outcomes are equally likely, Therefore,

2 3 1
[ 0] , [ 1] , [ 3] .
6 6 6
P X P X P X = = = = = =
170 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS



( ) ( )
0 2/ 6 0
1 3/ 6 3/ 6
3 1/ 6 3/ 6
Total 1 ( )
x f x xf x
E X =


5.100 (a) & (b)

2
( ) ( ) ( )
3 0.5 1.5 4.5
4 0.3 1.2 4.8
5 0.2 1.0 5.0
Total 3.7 14.3
x f x xf x x f x
=

( ) 3.7 E X = days to deliver a letter.


2 2 2 2
( ) 14.3 (3.7) 0.61 x f x = = =

0.61 0.781 = = day.

5.101 (a) & (b) The possible values of X are:

15 X = if he loses all three times

5 5 5 5 X = = if he loses twice and wins once

5 5 5 5 X = + = if he loses once and wins twice

5 5 5 15 X = + + = if he wins all three times.

Using the symbol W for win and L for loss at each play we list the elementary
outcomes. In assigning probabilities, note that at each play
18
( )
38
P W = and
20
( )
38
P L = because 18 out of 38 slots are red, and 20 are not red. Also the
outcomes at different plays are independent.

15 5 5 15 X X X X
LLL WLL WWL WWW
LWL WLW
LLW LWW
= = = =


171



3
20
( ) 0.1458
38
P LLL
| |
= =
|
\
so [ 15] 0.1458 P X = =

18 20 20
( ) ,
38 38 38
P WLL = and the same result holds for LWL and LLW.
Therefore,
2
18 20
[ 5] 3 0.3936
38 38
P X
| |
= = =
|
\

Similarly,
2
18 20
[ 5] 3 0.3543
38 38
P X
| |
= = =
|
\
,
3
18
[ 15] 0.1063
38
P X
| |
= = =
|
\
.

Probability distribution of X and calculation of expectation

( ) ( )
15 0.1458 2.187
5 0.3936 1.968
5 0.3543 1.7715
15 0.1063 1.5945
Total 1.0000 0.789
x f x xf x

( ) $0.79 E X =

(c) No. At any play, betting on red or black are probabilistically equivalent
because in either case
18
( ) .
38
P W = Also, different plays are independent.

5.102 (a) (4) 1 [ (0) (1) (2) (3)] f f f f f = + + +
Using the function
1 3
( ) ,
4 4
x
f x
| |
=
|
\
we calculate
2
3
1 64
(0)
4 256
1 3 3 48
(1)
4 4 16 256
1 3 9 36
(2)
4 4 64 256
1 3 27
(3)
4 4 256
175
Total
256
f
f
f
f
= =
= = =
| |
= = =
|
\
| |
= =
|
\
=


172 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


Therefore,
175 81
(4) 1
256 256
f = =

(b)
144
[ 2] (2) (3) (4) 0.5625
256
P X f f f = + + = =

(c) and (d) The probability distribution of X is presented in the following table
and and are calculated.

2
( ) ( ) ( )
0 64/ 256 0 0
1 48/ 256 48/ 256 48/ 256
2 36/ 256 72/ 256 144/ 256
3 27 / 256 81/ 256 243/ 256
4 81/ 256 324/ 256 1296/ 256
Total 1 525/ 256 1731/ 256
x f x xf x x f x



525
( ) 2.051
256
E X = =

2
2
1731 525
2.556
256 256

| |
= =
|
\

( ) 2.556 1.599 sd X = = =

5.103 (a)

( ) ( )
1 0.07 0.07
2 0.12 0.19
3 0.25 0.44
4 0.28 0.72
5 0.18 0.90
6 0.10 1.00
x f x F x








173


5.104 (a) & (b) In a row of 6 positions, 2 must be filled by the letter I and the
remaining 4 by the letter H. We first list the possible positions for I and then
present the corresponding rows.

Positions Value Positions Value
for I Row of X for I Row of X
1, 2 IIHHHH 2 2, 6 HIHHHI 4
1, 3 IHIHHH 4 3, 4 HHIIHH 3
1, 4 IHHIHH 4 3, 5 HHIHIH 5
1, 5 IHHHIH 4 3, 6 HHIHHI 4
1, 6 IHHHHI 3 4, 5 HHHIIH 3
2, 3 HIIHHH 3 4, 6 HHHIHI 4
2, 4 HIHIHH 5 5, 6 HHHHII 2
2, 5 HIHHIH 5

(c) The possible distinct values of X are 2, 3, 4, 5. Under the model of
randomness, the 15 elementary outcomes are equally likely. We calculate

2 4
[ 2] , [ 3] ,
15 15
P X P X = = = = etc.

The probability distribution of X is

( )
2 2/15
3 4/15
4 6/15
5 3/15
Total 1
x f x


5.105
2
( ) ( ) ( )
2 2/15 4/15 8/15
3 4/15 12/15 36/15
4 6/15 24/15 96/15
5 3/15 15/15 75/15
Total 1 55/15 215/15
x f x xf x x f x



55
3.667
15
= =
2
2
215 55
0.889
15 15

| |
= =
|
\
0.889 0.943 = =

174 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.106 (a) Since the number of heads in 3 tosses of a coin can be 0, 1, 2, or 3, the
possible values of Y are
1 2
0, , , 1
3 3
, respectively. We list the elementary
outcomes:

[ 0] Y = (no heads) TTT

1
3
Y
(
=
(

(one head) HTT, THT, TTH

2
3
Y
(
=
(

(two heads) HHT, HTH, THH
[ ] 1 Y = (three heads) HHH

Each elementary outcome has probability
1
8
so
1
[ 0] ,
8
P Y = =
1 3
,
3 8
P Y
(
= =
(

etc.
The probability distribution of Y is

( )
0 1/ 8
1/ 3 3/ 8
2/ 3 3/ 8
1 1/ 8
Total 1
y f y




(b) The probability histogram of Y is


175


(c)
y ( ) f y ( ) y f y
2
( ) y f y
0 1/8 0 0
1/3 3/8 3/24 3/72
2/3 3/8 6/24 12/72
1 1/8 1/8 1/8
Total 1 12/24 = 1/2 24/72 = 1/3

( ) 1/ 2 E Y =
2 2
1/ 3 (1/ 2) 1/12
Y
= = 1/ 12 0.289
Y
= =

5.107 (a) Although there are two possible outcomes for each trial, the model of
Bernoulli trials is not appropriate. The independence assumption is
questionable.

(b) Bernoulli model is plausible.

(c) Not Bernoulli trials because time is continuous.

(d) There are two possible outcomes but the condition of independence does not
hold. Clear or cloudy condition often lasts over several days.

(e) Bernoulli model is plausible.

5.108 (a) Test specimens of a packaging material under a fixed load and observe
whether each specimen breaks or not.

(b) Check the condition of the brake-shoe in each wheel of 20 cars at a used car
lot and record if it is satisfactory or not.

(c) Randomly sample 10 housing units from every ward of city and record if each
housing unit is a single-family or not.

5.109 Denoting male by M and female by F, we calculate

( ) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.125. P FFM = =

5.110 ( ) 0.35 P S = where S =the event of a successful attempt.

( ) 0.65 0.65 0.35 0.1479 P FFS = =

5.111
2
4
( )
49
P FF q = = so
4 2
49 7
q = = and
5
1
7
p q = =
2
2
5 2 50
( ) 0.146.
7 7 343
P SSF p q
| |
= = = =
|
\

176 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.112 Let X = number of type O out of 2 donors. We have ( ) 0.4 P O = and
( ) 0.6 P N = where N stands for not O.

(a)
2
[at least one type O] [ 1] 1 [ 0] 1 ( ) 1 (0.6) 0.64 P P X P X P NN = = = = = =

(b) Since 2 n = and (O) 0.4, p P = = we have ( ) 2 0.4 0.8. E X np = = =

(c)
3
[at least one type O out of 3 donors] 1 ( ) 1 (0.6) 0.784 P P NNN = = =
Expected number 3 0.4 1.2. = =

5.113 (a) X has the binomial distribution with 6 n = and 0.4. p =

(b) Using the binomial table, we find

[ 3] 0.821, [ 0] 0.047 P X P X = = =

( ) 6 0.4 2.4 E X np = = = persons

5.114 Let X = number of voters who will believe. The distribution of X is binomial
with 20 n = and 0.3. p =

(a) [ 0] 0.001 P X = =

(b) [ 7] 1 [ 6] 1 0.608 0.392 P X P X = = =

(c) Mean 20 0.3 6 np = = =
20 0.3 0.7 4.2 2.049 sd npq = = = = persons

5.115 Let X = number of victims under 16 out of 14 moped accident victims. The
distribution of X is binomial with 14 n = and 0.33. p =

(a) Mean 14 0.33 4.62 np = = =

(b) 14 0.33 0.67 3.095 1.759 sd npq = = = =

(c) [first victim is under 16 and second victim is at least 16]
0.33 0.67 0.221.
P
pq = = =






177


5.116 (a) X = number of wrong answers out of 10 problems

Identify S : marking a wrong answer (the event of interest)
So,
4
( ) 0.8
5
p P S = = = .
The binomial distribution with 10, 0.8 n p = = is reasonable for X.

(b) X = number of correct answers out of 18 problems

Identify S : marking a correct answer
Here
1
( )
5
p P S = = for the first 8 trials (problems)

1
( )
4
p P S = = for the last 10 trials
Although X represents the number of successes in a fixed number (18) of
trials, the success probability p is not the same for all trials. The distribution
of X is not binomial.

(c) Viewing the selection of 50 people as 50 n = trials, being a regular exerciser
as a success for each trial, X represents the number of successes in n trials.
However, it is not reasonable to assume the trials are independent as the
sampling was done in pairs. There is likely to be more affinity of life styles
between the husband and the wife. A binomial distribution for X is not
reasonable.

5.117 Employing the binomial model with 20 n = and 0.7, p = we find [ 10] P X =
0.048. The probability of the observed result 10, or a more extreme result, is so
small that we would doubt the claim that 0.7. p = Not as many students as
claimed support the papers view.

5.118 We use the binomial table for 14, 0.4. n p = =

(a) [3 9] [ 9] [ 2] 0.982 0.040 0.942 P X P X P X = = =

(b) [3 9] [ 9] [ 3] 0.982 0.124 0.858 P X P X P X < = = =

(c) [3 9] [4 8] [ 8] [ 3] 0.942 0.124 0.818 P X P X P X P X < < = = = =

(d) ( ) 14 0.4 5.6 E X = =

(e) ( ) 14 0.4 0.6 1.833. sd X = =


178 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.119 (a) The binomial distribution for 5 n = and 0.4 p =

0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
( ) 0.078 0.259 0.346 0.230 0.077 0.010 1.000
x
f x


(b) The binomial distribution for 5, 0.4 n p = = is shown below.

(c) Using part (a) we calculate

2 2
0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
( ) 0 0.259 0.692 0.690 0.308 0.050 1.999 ( )
( ) 0 0.259 1.384 2.070 1.232 0.250 5.195 ( )
x
xf x E X
x f x E X
=
=



2
Var( ) 5.195 (1.999) 1.198999 X = =

(d) ( ) 5 0.4 2 E X = =
Var( ) 5 0.4 0.6 1.2 X = =

The results in part (c) are slightly off due to rounding error.

5.120
1 1
[1 success in trials]
1
n n
n
P n pq npq

| |
= =
|
\

[0 successes in trials]
n
P n q =

One success is more probable than 0 successes if
1 n n
npq q

> or
1
0.85
5.67
0.15
n
n
q q
n
pq p

> = = =

The smallest n (integer) that satisfies 5.67 n > is 6.


179


5.121 Let X = number of persons (out of 20) who feel the system is adequate. Since
the city population is large, the binomial distribution is appropriate for X. We
have 20 n = and 0.3 p = so
[ 10] 1 [ 9] 1 0.952 0.048 P X P X = = =
[ 10] [ 10] [ 9] 0.983 0.952 0.031. P X P X P X = = = =

5.122 If the sociologist is correct, then

[capable senior goes to college] 0.5. p P = =

Let X = number of seniors (out of 17) who will go to college.
The binomial model is appropriate and we have 17, 0.5. n p = =

[ 12] 1 [ 11] 1 0.928 0.072. P X P X = = =
( ) 17(0.5) 8.5. E X np = = =

5.123 Identify S : correct guess
Then
1
[correct guess in a single trial] 0.2
5
p P = = = because there are 5 possible
guesses of which one is correct.

If X denotes the number of correct guesses in 16 trials, the distribution of X is
binomial with 16, 0.2 n p = =

(a) Using the binomial table for 16, 0.2, [ 3] 0.598 n p P X = = =

(b) Wrong at least 10 times means correct at most 16 10 6 = times
The required probability is [ 6] 0.973. P X =
(c) ( ) 16 0.2 3.2 E X np = = =
( ) 16 0.2 0.8 1.6. sd X npq = = =

5.124 (a) The possible values of Y are 1, 2, , and the corresponding elementary
outcomes are:
[ 1] , [ 2] , [ 3] , Y S Y FS Y FFS = = = = = = etc.
Thus,
[ ] ...
1
Y y FF F S
y
= =

and its probability is
1
( ) [ ] ... .
1
y
f y P Y y q q q p q p
y

= = = =

(b) [ 3] (1) (2) (3) P Y f f f = + +

2 2
0.5 (0.5)(0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 0.875. p qp q p = + + = + + =
180 CHAPTER 5. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


5.125 (a)
0
3 3
(3)
[ 0] (0) 0.05
0!
P X f e e

= = = = =
(b)
1
3 3
(3)
[ 1] (1) 3 0.15.
1!
P X f e e

= = = = =

5.126 (a) The center line is at
0
0.5, p = and the lower and upper control limits are


0.5 0.5
0.5 3 0.165
20

= and
0.5 0.5
0.5 3 0.835
20

+ =

(b) The corresponding proportions 0.55, 0.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.65, 0.6, 0.35, 0.7, 0.5 and
0.65 are graphed below.

(c) There are no days for which the proportion is out of control.