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MBA - Semester I (Module 1), July 2012-14 Batch Subject Outline

Subject Name Subject Code Subject Credits Business Statistics MGT 503 3 This course covers the concepts with the basic techniques of business statistics and to provide a comprehensive overview of its scope and limitations and techniques concerning exploratory data analysis, frequency distributions, central tendency and variation, probability, sampling, inference, correlation and regression. Students will be exposed to these topics and how each applies to and can be used in the business environment. Students will master problem solving using both manual computations and statistical software. Moreover, this course is designed to introduce management students to develop the analytical and interpretation skills. An addition to this course has been designed with to give students hands-on-experience in computer package SPSS for analyzing the data. Students will be able to evaluate relevant data and apply the outcome to make decisions with reference to the specific empirical question or problem.

Summary/Overview

Aims

Core Learning Outcomes Learning Outcomes: Sl. On completion of this subject you No. should be able to: 1. Distinguish between qualitative and quantitative data. 2. Represent data using tables, charts 1 and graphs, and analyze and interpret them.

Assessment Criteria: To achieve the learning outcome you must demonstrate the ability to: 1. Organize raw data into tables, charts, and graphs 2. Analyze and interpret data represented in tabular and/or graphical form.

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1. Compute descriptive measures of location and dispersion for ungrouped and grouped data. 1. Distinguish between univariate and 1. Understand the differences between bivariate situations. univariate and bivariate analysis. 2. Construct scatterplot diagrams. 2. Graphically analyze the relationship 3. (a) Identify specific scenarios for between two variables using applicability of correlation and scatterplot diagrams. regression. 3. Understand the differences and (b) Construct regression equations using inter-connections between correlation coefficients, and vice versa. correlation and regression. 4. Calculate the covariance, correlation 4. Compute the different measures of coefficients and simple linear regression association. coefficients. 1. Distinguish between cross-sectional 1. Identify situations where time series and time series data. analysis is applicable. 2. Understand the different 2. Identify different components of a time components of a time series. series data. 3. Identify linear and exponential 3. Estimate linear and/or exponential trend trend patterns in time series. for time series data. 4. Understand forecasting methods 4. Use trend analysis, moving averages and using trend analysis, moving single exponential smoothing for averages and single exponential forecasting time series. smoothing methods. 1. Understand the concepts of 1. Calculate probability of an event in classical probability. simple random experiments. 2. Understand Bayes theorem and its 2. Use Bayes theorem to update applications. conditional probabilities. 3. Understand the concepts of discrete 3. Calculate probabilities using discrete and and continuous random variables continuous probability distributions. and probability distributions. 4. Calculate the probabilities, mean and 4. Understand the applications of the variance of discrete and continuous binomial, Poisson, exponential, random variables. uniform and normal distributions. 1. Distinguish between the population 1. Calculate sample means, sample parameters and sample statistics. proportions, and sample 2. Understand the concepts of variance/standard deviation, and standard sampling distributions. errors of estimates. 3. Construct point estimators and 2. Calculate confidence intervals for confidence intervals for a single population means, proportions, and population mean, single population variances. proportion, and single population 3. Use suitable formulae to determine 1. Compute the different measures of location and scale.

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variance, and the corresponding sample size in different estimation constructions for two populations. contexts. 4. Understand the determination of 4. Apply the hypothesis testing procedure in sample size for statistical inference. different contexts (as specified on the 5. Understand the general concepts left-hand-side): and procedure of hypothesis testing, (a) Formulate hypotheses. including: formulation of null and (b) Identify and compute alternative hypotheses, appropriate test statistics. identification of the test statistic, (c)Identify the critical region and critical sampling distribution under the null values. hypothesis, type I and type II errors (d) Calculate p-values. in hypothesis testing, level of (e) Draw statistical inferences about the significance, critical region, critical population. values, p-values. 6. Distinguish between application of tests for means, proportions, and variances. 7. Distinguish between small sample and large sample tests for means. 8. Understand the application of ztests, t-tests, 2-tests, F-tests, and ANOVA. The pedagogy will be a mix of lectures, experience sharing and assignments. In addition to the reading materials, additional readings and cases may be distributed in the class from time to time. Students are responsible for discussion of the required readings and for Approach to Learning completion of group and individual exercises assigned by the instructor. Emphasis is on participatory learning, and students are required to actively participate in class discussions throughout the course. Assessment Strategy No Assessment Method* Description of Assessment Method Weight % Learning Outcomes Assessed 1 2 3 4 5 6 X X X X X X

Assignments During Term Assessment Final Examination Total

A combination of Case Study, group/individual assignment 25 depending on the discretion of the instructor Mid-term examination worth 20 50 marks Term-end examination worth 50 100 marks 100 marks

X X

X X

X X X X X

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Textbook: Statistics for Business and Economics, Anderson, Sweeney and Williams, Thomson Learning, New Delhi, 11th Edition, 2011 *The following codes for assessment methods apply:literature review PC practical computer-based PF performance case study PL placement dissertation or project PO portfolio exam PR presentation group report RE individual report during term test OR oral OT other

LR CB CS DI EX GR DTA

Outline Teaching Schedule No. 1 Topic to be covered Introduction and Basic Concepts Definition-Use of Statistics-Types of Statistical Applications in Business-Fundamental Elements of Statistics-Types of Data-The Role of Statistics in Managerial Decision Making Methods for Describing Sets of Data Describing Qualitative and Quantitative Grouped and ungrouped Data-Graphical Methods for Describing Quantitative Data, histograms, ogives - Graphical Displays of Categorical Data, bar charts, pie charts - Summation Notation-Numerical Measures of Central Tendency(Location): Mean, Median, Mode, Percentiles; and VariabilityRange, Variance, Standard Deviation, Mean Absolute Deviation, Quartile Deviation, Coefficients of Variation/QD- Methods of Detecting Outliers: standardized variables (z-score) Correlation & Regression Graphical Bivariate Relationships/Scatter Plot, covariance, Karl Pearsons coefficient of correlation, one-way and two-way tables; simple linear regression, method of least squares, coefficient of determination. Time Series Components of Time Series; Forecasting based on Moving Averages, Single Exponential Smoothing, Trend fitting (linear and exponential growth) Probability Introduction-Event, Sample Space and Probability-Concepts in Probability-Unions and Intersections, Mutually Exclusive Events -The Additive Rule; -Conditional Probability, Independent Events and Multiplicative Rule - Bayes Theorem (numerical only)

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Random Variables and Probability Distributions Definition Types of Random Variables- Discrete Probability Distributions: Binomial and Poisson Distributions Continuous Probability Distributions: Normal, Exponential and Uniform Distributions problems Sampling and Sampling Distribution Part I: Introduction-Point and Interval Estimation: Estimator and Estimates, Sampling Distribution of the sample mean and sample proportions, Confidence Intervals, Determining the Sample Size - Central Limit Theorem - Large Sample Estimation ; Small Sample Estimation Introduction to Hypothesis Testing Concept of Hypothesis - The Elements of a Test of Hypothesis - Basic Concepts Null and Alternative Hypotheses - Type I and Type II Errors Test statistic and its sampling distribution critical regions and level of significance, p-values. Data Analysis: Hypothesis Tests, Goodness of Fit and ANOVA Tests of Hypothesis for a Single Population Mean (z-test and t-test), Population Proportion (z-test), Comparing Two Population Means, Independent Sampling and Paired Difference (z-test and t-test); Comparing Two Populations Proportions: Independent Sampling (z-test); Testing for the variance of a Single Population (Chisquared test), Testing the Equality of two Population Variances (F-test); Chi-square Tests for Goodness of Fit Multinomial proportions, Poisson, Normal; Tests of Independence of attributes; Analysis of Variance F-test of equality of several population means (one-way only)

Recommended Resources 1) Complete Business Statistics, Aczel and Soundarapandyan, 6th Edition, McGraw Hill 2) Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Black, 5th Edition, Wiley. 3) Statistics for Management, Levin and Rubin, 7th Edition, Prentice Hall.

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