DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMY IN METRO ATLANTA

@bruce_katz
Metropolitan Policy Program
at BROOKINGS

Atlanta Regional Commission - Atlanta, Georgia / October 12, 2012

Arts & Culture

Logistics Hub

Fortune 500 Firms

Livable Centers

Talented & Diverse Workforce

World Class Universities

1 2 3

A vision for the next American economy

@bruce_katz

Global GDP
21.0%
BIC Countries

19.9%
US

2009

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010

Global GDP
26.5%
BIC Countries

17.9%
US

2015

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010

Global Metro Population

50%

2009

Global Metro Population

60%

2030

Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009

Economic Performance 2010-2011

Highest Performing Metros Lowest Performing Metros

Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor, January 2012

Exports Share of GDP

2010

30%

29%

22%

13%
China Canada India

15%

15%

United States

Japan

European Union

Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011

Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested

Can we get back into the export game?

$944 billion
US manufactured exports 2010

Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries

2010, Billions

$1477

$944
$680 $409

$1091

France

Japan

United States

Germany

China

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011

US Service Trade
Billions, 2010

$518 $358
$160 billion
trade surplus

Service Imports

Service Exports

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reect Commercial Services)

Can the U.S. play in the low carbon revolution?

2.7 million clean economy jobs

Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011)

2.7 million clean economy jobs 1.4 million biosciences jobs 2.4 million fossil fuel jobs 4.8 million IT jobs
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011), Brookings Analysis of Battelle, BLS, Moodys Analytics data

manufacturing share of engineers

35%

manufacturing share of R&D

68%

manufacturing share of patents

90%

Source: EOP A Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing (2009) Brookings Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing with New Research Centers (2011)

Can the U.S. be an Innovation Nation?

p a e h C f o d The En The coming US China n b eah o o m m s n d ge aa ow w e s On e a Chin es in Nam US h C g in r a o s o What d ring? factu anush m l a a le b Q g a lo sD g w ua il fu for k l rty it rope e Intellectual-P is rlu pte s Key S u Aprilt23, p , 2012 chlis 20p 12ly Chains May 10Wat ing manufactur

rgest rlds la o w e A h t p r is iis l s, 3 n, 0 China 20 v Te le 1r2th n e ye t ar s io f fro o m tod t ay u s e CEA and p 2012 t 30, April in,gth u o s t I e h r. t e o w d o n p a s e ip l pral Reserve ch Fe eede s, st will again urpassedairman s smartphone t o T h fo e r u e o a a y r r t n h o fo q s p t u o ce n a lebra ue k o te n dr a cc ca th de of as wa un tex ode you ca stpe cte dostr an ruc of ion on protect in ient g h insufc China's kn C . J 0 a 1 p rth 0 a 2 ie n r o e in t F a c r s st i fa a d ic s a t grow I y . th f g . o Th Amer is in r tim r c e u e th t e d c cre dit fa s wi h u ll go n u to a t top y a d s m remain e owns across rights y broadc propert that th f globaltual ly s p p ega ea fifth ointellec c h t r co u un o try s m wi , de h o c ins f u fro g t m m h th eove ry low c tradine un ade sofor U.S. i try the nn of its given policy, d trade y 's u n priority have m s a t m r i e in s , b io en e t u er a b gy t fl pr y t ice in a h s fou e d m nd e on b a b ly r i in in g th u h e g c US C e .t fo e r impac ap e hav "troubling" c hi c o fa m ment o govern p recent of n a r directio e n r e e h t s t c u Lo ou w-cost energy ld c wi o ll ha m ve sp aw partners. B e ne d i an n t h a . eaat seh lo d rg c domestic e weeks a ting suppor seth aimed measur g to aes e all ex d port isso su ru drawin in ptio rts of go

38%
a

od ns m s, m ak w ayU.S. e fro t th h e ro ir e's u entativ Repres g Trade the h innovation, chem t h ica ls to tyrese . global supply chain. y. Monda ofce said T he 8.9 -magnitude earth quake the largest o , one of n record, ha s crippled activity for n ow in a coun try that is a

manufacturing share of economic growth 2009 Q3 - 2011 Q4

Source: Brookings analysis of Moodys Economy.com data

11%

wage premium in exporting rms

Greater likelihood of health and retirement benets in export-intense industries

Source: Istrate, Rothwell & Katz, Export Nation (2010)

Educational Attainment
Associates Degree or Higher

56% 36% 39% 25% 19%

United States

Asians

Non-Hispanic Whites

African Americans

Hispanics

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Educational Attainment
Associates Degree or Higher

25%

19%

African Americans

Hispanics

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

1 2 3

The next economy will be largely metropolitan

@bruce_katz

Georgia
Atlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga

61%

66%

Population

GDP

Georgia
Atlanta, Augusta, Chattanooga
Albany, Athens, Brunswick, Columbus, Dalton, Gainesville, Hinesville, Macon, Rome, Savannah, Valdosta, Warner Robins

82%

87%

Population

GDP

Top 100 Metro Exports

Share of U.S. Totals

66%

75% 63%

Population

Service Exports

Manufacturing Exports

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro Exports

Share of U.S. Totals

66%

68%

76%

78%

Population

Chemical Products

Business/ Professional Services

Computer/ Electronic Products

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro Trade Logistics

Share of U.S. Totals

66%

82%

88%

92%

Population

U.S. Air Cargo Weight

Foreign Waterborne Cargo Weight

Airline Boardings

Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, and PIERS data (2009)

Top 100 Metro Clean Economy Employment

Share of U.S. Totals

66%

78%

80%

83%

90%

Population

Solar PV Energy

Wind Energy

Renewable Energy Services

Green Architecture & Construction Services

Source: Brookings, Sizing the Clean Economy (2011)

Top 100 Metro Innovative Assets

Share of U.S. Totals

94% 66% 74% 75% 78% 82%

Population

College Degrees

Graduate Degrees

Patents

NIH/NSF Funding

Venture Capital Funding

Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, BLS, BEA, NIH and NSF data

Aerial imagery: DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA

Atlanta, GA Metro Export Dashboard

Export Volume Goods & Services Exports

$20.0 B
Export Jobs

services share of exports

52.8%

47.2%

goods share of exports

151,700
Export Intensity Top Services Sectors Travel & Tourism Top Manufacturing Sectors Chemicals Transportation Equipment Food

9.8%

18.9% 12.1% 6.8%

7.9% 6.3% 6.2%

8.0%
Business Services Royalties

Top 100 Metros

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Atlanta Metro

Atlanta, GA Metro Clean Economy Dashboard

Clean Jobs

43,060
Top Sectors By Industry Specialization Smart Grid Water Efcient Products Appliances
Source: Brookings, Sizing the Clean Economy 2011

Clean Employment Intensity

LQ 9.3 4.2 4.0

2.0%

1.9%

2.1%

1.9%

U.S.

Top 100 Metros

Georgia Atlanta Metro

Atlanta, GA Metro Manufacturing Dashboard

Manufacturing Jobs Top Manufacturing Sectors

142,416
Manufacturing Intensity Manufacturing Growth
2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4

8.5% 6.2% 2.7%

4.3%
Food Plastics & Rubber Computers & Electronics
Atlanta Metro

16.5% 8.1% 7.5% 6.8% 6.4%

US

US

Atlanta Metro

Fabricated Metal Products

Printing & Support Activities

Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012

Atlanta, GA Metro Opportunity Dashboard

Educational Attainment
Associates Degree or Higher

Immigrant Composition
By Skill Level (Age 25+)

56.7% 46.3% 41.1% 34.6% 20.5% 26.6% 41.6% 31.8%

Atlanta Asian Non-Hispanic African Hispanic Text MetroTotal White American

Source: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2011) and The Geography of Immigrant Skills (2011)

Low Skilled

Middle Skilled

High Skilled

Atlanta, GA Metro Opportunity Dashboard

Transit Accessibility
Share of Working-Age Residents with Transit Coverage Share of all Jobs Reachable via public transit in 90 minutes

38% 69%
Atlanta Metro Top 100 Metro Average

22% 30%
Atlanta Metro Top 100 Metro Average

Source: Brookings, Missed Opportunity: Transit and Jobs in Metropolitan America (2011)

1 2 3

Metropolitan areas are driving innovation

METRO INNOVATION

@bruce_katz

Innovate Locally

Market Assessment

Metropolitan Business Planning

Economic Profile
15% 12% 13% 9%

Target Sectors
8% 9% 12%

Seattle Portland MinneapolsSaint Paul Los Angeles Syracuse

Establish Goals & Strategies

Double exports Increase global uency Support key sectors Boost SME exports

Northeast Ohio

Collaborate to Compete
Firms Universities Governments

Philanthropy

Metropolitan Business Planning

Key manufacturing growth sectors: fuel cells, electric vehicles, organic electronics Retool manufacturing and retrain industrial workers

Northeast Ohio

Case Western Reserve

The University of Akron

John Glenn Research Center

Metropolitan Business Planning

Atlanta Metrop olitan Busine ss Pla n

Atlanta

Buildin

g on Lo gistics Base

Innovation District
In no va tion District

A 21st Century economy shaping/placemaking strategy that connects and clusters innovation-generating anchor institutions and companies with entrepreneurial rms, infrastructure, housing, retail, and amenities.

19th Century Industrial Districts

20th Century Science Parks

Innovation Districts

Savannah College of Art & Design

Emory University

Georgia Tech

High Atlanta MuseumMuseum Symphony of Art of Design Orchestra Atlanta Woodruff Atlanta Arts Federal Center Reserve Fox Theatre

Centennial Olympic Park CocaCola Company

CNN Georgia Center Dome Georgia Clark Phillips State Atlanta Arena Georgia University City Capitol Morehouse Hall College Turner Field

Innovate Locally

Network Globally

Toronto New York

London

Frankfurt Paris Tokyo Shanghai

Lagos

Sao Paulo Sydney

Detroit Monterrey

Cologne Chongqing Hanoi Chennai

Bogota

Johannesburg

Rotterdam Hamburg Los Angeles Tianjin Dubai Seoul

Singapore

Buenos Aires

Durbin

Atlantas Top Export Destinations

2010 Volume

Atlantas Top Air Travel Destinations

2011 Total Passengers

Canada Mexico Japan United Kingdom China

$3.07 B $1.68 B $1.43 B $1.36 B $1.03 B

Seoul London Toronto Cancun Montego Bay

188,207 185,587 177,215 165,260 97,117

Source: Brookings, Export Nation II (2012) Brookings analysis of all international passenger trafc between Atlanta and other global metros (2012)

Metropolitan Business Planning

Target industries: aerospace, computer and electronic products, pharmaceuticals, professional services, lm and television Grow Los Angeles metropolitan exports Los Angeles Regional Export Council
City of Los Angeles

Los Angeles
University of Southern California University of California Los Angeles

Innovate Locally

Network Globally

Advocate Nationally

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Council of Economic Advisors Ofce of Administration Ofce of Policy Development Council on Environmental Quality Ofce of Management & Budget Ofce of Science & Technology Policy National Security Council Ofce of Natl Drug Control Policy Ofce of the US Trade Representative

CABINET AGENCIES
Department of Agriculture Department of Health & Human Services Department of Labor Department of Commerce Department of Homeland Security Department of State Department of Defense Department of Housing & Urban Development Department of Transportation Department of Education Department of the Interior Department of Treasury Department of Energy Department of Justice Department of Veterans Affairs

INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS

African Development Foundation Farm Credit Administration Federal Reserve System National Credit Union Administration Ofce of Government Ethics Selective Service System Central Intelligence Agency Federal Communications Commission Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities Ofce of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Commodity Futures Trading Commission Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Trade Commission National Labor Relations Board Ofce of Special Council Social Security Administration Consumer Product Safety Commission Federal Election Commission General Services Administration National Mediation Board Overseas Private Investment Corporation Tennessee Valley Authority Corporation for National and Community Service Federal Housing Finance Board Inter-American Foundation National Railroad Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK) Peace Corps Trade & Development Agency Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Federal Labor Relations Authority Merit Systems Protection Board National Science Foundation Pension Benet Guaranty Corporation US Agency for International Development Environmental Protection Agency Federal Maritime Commission National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Transportation Safety Board Postal Rate Commission US Commission on Civil Rights Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service National Archives and Records Administration Nuclear Regulatory Commission Railroad Retirement Board US International Trade Commission Export-Import Bank of the United States Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission National Capital Planning Commission Occupational Safety & Health Review Commission Securities and Exchange Commission US Postal Service

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Council of Economic Advisors Ofce of Administration Ofce of Policy Development Council on Environmental Quality Ofce of Management & Budget Ofce of Science & Technology Policy National Security Council Ofce of Natl Drug Control Policy Ofce of the US Trade Representative

CABINET AGENCIES
Department of Agriculture Department of Health & Human Services Department of Labor Department of Commerce Department of Homeland Security Department of State Department of Defense Department of Housing & Urban Development Department of Transportation Department of Education Department of the Interior Department of Treasury Department of Energy Department of Justice Department of Veterans Affairs

INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS

African Development Foundation Farm Credit Administration Federal Reserve System National Credit Union Administration Ofce of Government Ethics Selective Service System Central Intelligence Agency Federal Communications Commission Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities Ofce of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Commodity Futures Trading Commission Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Trade Commission National Labor Relations Board Ofce of Special Council Social Security Administration Consumer Product Safety Commission Federal Election Commission General Services Administration National Mediation Board Overseas Private Investment Corporation Tennessee Valley Authority Corporation for National and Community Service Federal Housing Finance Board Inter-American Foundation National Railroad Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK) Peace Corps Trade & Development Agency Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board Federal Labor Relations Authority Merit Systems Protection Board National Science Foundation Pension Benet Guaranty Corporation US Agency for International Development Environmental Protection Agency Federal Maritime Commission National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Transportation Safety Board Postal Rate Commission US Commission on Civil Rights Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service National Archives and Records Administration Nuclear Regulatory Commission Railroad Retirement Board US International Trade Commission Export-Import Bank of the United States Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission National Capital Planning Commission Occupational Safety & Health Review Commission Securities and Exchange Commission US Postal Service

Ofce of the US Trade Representative Department of Commerce

International Trade Administration US Census National Technical Information Service Select USA Bureau of Industry & Security National Institute of Standards & Technology Minority Business Development Agency

Export-Import Bank of the United States Overseas Private Investment Corporation Small Business Administration

Federal Government

State Government Firms Local Governments

INTEGRATED METROPOLITAN EXPORT PROMOTION

Universities Philanthropy

$4 trillion
in proposed decit reduction through 2020 Reduce national debt to

40%
of U.S. GDP by 2035
Simpson-Bowles Plan 2010

DELIVERING THE NEXT ECONOMY IN METRO ATLANTA

@bruce_katz
Metropolitan Policy Program
at BROOKINGS

Atlanta Regional Commission - Atlanta, Georgia / October 12, 2012