Macro Economics:

ASSIGNMENT ON

ENERGY CRISIS In PAKISTAN

Submitted By:
B.com (Hons.) Semester 3 Section A

Submitted To: Professor Syed Salman Rizvi

Table of Contents
Energy crisis in Pakistan ................................................................................... 4 Pakistan-A Populous Country ........................................................................... 4 Electricity Consumption In Pakistan: ................................................................ 6 Electricity Usage Problems ............................................................................... 7 Household............................................................................................... 7 Industries: ............................................................................................... 7

The Energy Gap ................................................................................................ 8 Energy Sources In Use ...................................................................................... 9 Combustible Energy Resources ........................................................................ 9 Oil, Natural Gas and Coal (Fossil Fuel) as Energy Resources and ElectricityProducers: ....................................................................................................... 9 Renewable Energy Resources: Hydro-Electric (Hydel) Power Energy: ............. 10 Pakistan's Heavy Dependence Upon Water Resources: .................................. 11 Surface Water: ...................................................................................... 11

Proposed And Under Developed Hydel Power Projects ............................... 11 Rainfall: ................................................................................................ 12 Ground Water: ...................................................................................... 12

Hydel Power Potential In Pakistan ................................................................. 12 SUMMARY OF THE HYDEL RESOURCES IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF PAKISTAN 13 Necessity of Utilizing These Water Resources Efficiently ................................ 15 Water Availability Crisis In Pakistan Creating Energy Crisis Along The Way .... 15 Water Stress: .............................................................................................. 15 Hydel Power For Over-Coming Energy Crisis .................................................. 16 Future Hydel Power Projects In Pakistan ........................................................ 17 Necessity Of Building Another Dam On Indus River........................................ 17
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Rising Water Level On Tarbela And Mangla ........................................... 17 Why Not Other Rivers? ......................................................................... 18 Suitable Sites On River Indus................................................................. 18 Control Food deficit: ............................................................................. 18

Kalabagh Dam Project: ................................................................................... 19 Kalabagh dam project benefits for Pakistan ................................................... 21 Power: .................................................................................................. 21 Flood alleviation ................................................................................... 21

Consequences of not building Kalabagh dam: ................................................ 22 Controversies regarding Kalabagh dam .......................................................... 22 Apprehensions of Khyberpakhtunkhwa: ............................................... 22 Apprehensions of Sindh: ....................................................................... 22

Diamer-Bhasha Dam: ..................................................................................... 23 Bhasha or Kalabagh: The More Feasible Project: ............................................ 23 Geographical Locations: Comparison: ................................................... 23 Bhasha Dam: ......................................................................................... 24 Time And Capital Required For Construction ......................................... 24

Conclusion: .................................................................................................... 24 Wind power .......................................................................................... 24 Solar Energy .......................................................................................... 25 Nuclear Energy: ..................................................................................... 25

Energy crisis in Pakistan

Pakistan-A Populous Country
Islamic Republic of Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world and also the second most populous Muslim country. It has a population of 170.6 million people according to 2010 estimates of Ministry of Economic Affairs & Statistics Pakistan and 184,404,709
According to July 2010 estimates of the CIA-the world fact-book. Punjab is the most populated province having the population of 81,330,531 (according to Punjab-World Gazetteer) followed by Sindh having 55,000,000 people.

*1ENERGY DEMAND AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN

PAKISTAN Supply and demand of electricity in Pakistan Supply demand position from 2002 to 2018
Existing generation Proposal/ committed generation Total existing/ committed generation Expected available generation Demand Surplus/deficit generation 2008 15,90 3 530 2009 15,90 3 4235 2010 15,90 3 7226 2011 15,90 3 1011 5 2601 8 2081 4 2087 4 -60 2012 15,90 3 1055 6 2645 9 2116 7 2246 0 1293 2013 15,90 3 13307 2014 15,90 3 1352 0 2921 0 2353 8 2591 9 -2381 2015 15,90 3 1460 7 2942 3 2440 8 2802 9 -3621 2016 15,90 3 1613 4 3051 0 2563 0 3022 3 -4593 2017 15,90 3 1844 8 3203 7 2748 1 3550 4 -8023 2018 15,903 18448

16484

2013 8 1611 0 1786 8 -1758

2312 9 1850 3 1935 2 -849

29210

34351

13146

23368

27481

16484 -3338

24216 -758

34918 -7437

*Sector Year 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Domestic 7,199 7,585 8,127 8,783 9,531

Wise Power Demand (2005-10)

Agriculture 1,763 1,820 1,893 1,979 2,079 Industrial 5,891 6,481 7,252 8,181 9,267 Other 1,035 1,086 1,159 1,243 1,341 Total 15,500 16,600 17,900 19,600 21,500

Commercial 1,216 1,251 1,312 1,354 1,408

During financial year 2007 to 2008, electricity consumption increased by 6.8%, natural gas by 10.4%, LPG by 17.6% and coal by 22.8%. Oil imports increased by 5.6% but costs increased by 60.4% as well due to worldwide price hike.

source http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Pakistan
Source: Planning Commission

Electricity Consumption in Pakistan:

Electricity consumption is 72.2 billion kWh (2007 EST.). It has, however, been recorded as an under-estimation. Electricity exports: 0 Electricity imports: 0 Electricity is generated, transmitted, distributed and retail supplied by Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Pakistan and Karachi Electric Supply Co. (KESC) Pakistan. Following is the list of Electric supply companies in Pakistan: Lahore Electric Supply Co. Water and Power Development Authority Karachi Electric Supply Co. Gujranwala Electric Supply Co. Faisalabad Electric Supply Co. Hubb Power Co. Islamabad Electric Supply Co. Peshawar Electric Supply Co. Multan Electric Supply Co. Hyderabad Electric Supply Co. Peshawar Electric Supply Co. Quetta Electric Supply Co. Tribal Electric Supply Co. Kott Addu Power Co.

PEPCO (Pakistan Electric Power Co.) was dissolved on 1st October, 2010. Published in The Express Tribune October 2, 2010. ISLAMABAD: The government on Friday dissolved the bleeding Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) to follow a crucial IMF diktat and at the same time also hiked electricity prices by another 2 per cent. The dissolution of the 18-year-old company clears the way for the restoration of the currently suspended $11.3 billion IMF bailout programme.

Electricity Usage Problems

Household: Peak demand of electricity saw a 34% increase during 2004-2009,

household, being responsible of half of the electricity consumption. This rapid increase in demand resulted from increased usage of electric appliances in household mainly due to rising household incomes and burgeoning consumer financing markets. This lead to a 4000-5000 MW shortfall, corresponding to 25-30% of total demand. There is also a problem that standby power consumption on household items is very high. People leave their electric appliances on without reason. its like to pay for a drink you really not got to drink

Industries: Industrial sector, being energy intensive, gave 19% of total GDP in 2008
but was the user of 43% of total energy. This was mostly due to unimproved infrastructure and inefficient technology in use. Low energy productivity is increasing cost of
doing business and decreasing industrial competitiveness.

The Energy Gap

Pakistan's economy has grown at an average rate of 7% from financial year 2004 to 2008, resulting in an average 8.4% per year increase in energy demand. However, primary energy supply only increased by 6% per year during this time.
According to ADB (Asian Development Bank) Technical Assistance Consultant's Final Report 2009 (ADB TA 7060-PAK) in the year 2008, energy supply was 63 million tons of oil equivalent(MTOE) consisting of natural gas (47.5%), oil (30.5%), hydropower (10.9%), coal (9.2%), LPG (liquefied petroleum gas: 0.7%) and nuclear (1.2%).

Pakistan is a net energy importer and the oil import bill was $12 billion in financial year 2008. Based on conservative annual GDP forecasts of 4% (in Pakistan's case GDP growth rate was 2% from 2009 to 2010), the total annual energy demand is expected to double 122 MTOE in ten years. The annual energy import bill would exceed $27 billion till 2018. Rising energy prices are a great burden on both the Government and the customer's pocket.

Ad hoc measures like rental power projects are temporary and are not sufficient. This energy gap can only be bridged through taking two steps: 1. Increasing production and better sector performance that results in increased supply of energy 2. Curbing the demand through energy efficiency (clean technology investments and higher energy output) and DSM (demand side management). The troubling facts of Pakistan's momentous descent towards the abyss of financial crisis
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due to high energy demand, rising prices of energy import and inability to import energy due to declining productivity in the country can only be met with by increasing self-sufficiency in energy production to a maximum possible extent. Power generation cost has increased on the other hand, as oil-based thermal power plants account for 68% of generating capacity. This gives rise to an increasing necessity of using less costly and environment-friendly energy resources.

Energy Sources in Use

At present, the total power production in the country is about 19500 MW, out of which only 6703 MW is hydel and balance of 13000 MW is thermal and a negligible proportion is of nuclear energy. In short, Pakistan is using the most expensive and rapidly diminishing energy resource the most. This extremely unwise strategy is leading the country deeper into economic and environmental crisis and increasing the momentum of nation's economic decline.

Combustible Energy Resources

Oil, Natural Gas and Coal (Fossil Fuel) as Energy Resources and Electricity-Producers:

Oil: Pakistan imports about 80% of its oil. It spent about

$5.46 billion on six million tons of petroleum products and 3.7 million tons of crude oil in financial year 2010-11. (Dawn news: January 20, 2011.) It clearly rules out oil as a resource for electricity production.

Natural Gas: During the financial year 2008-09, SUI Northern Gas Company stated a shortfall in 700 MMCFD (millions of cubic feet per day) of gas due to increased use of heaters and geysers. It signifies that already, the demand has exceeded the supply of gas. The proposed solution as yet available is that Pakistan should import natural gas from Iran through a pipeline. But it also renders Natural Gas to be uneconomical electricity resource.

Coal: Pakistan is a country abundant in coal. Coal where it is quite a cheap source of energy is also a hazardous one on the other hand. The fame of coal as an electricity producing resource is due to the fact that it is cheap and can be easily burned. But the use of coal on this massive scale can create serious environmental hazards like: Acid Rain Sulphur Oxide emissions (93% of electricity utility industry in U.S.) Carbon di-oxide emissions (Causing global warming.) Poorer land & toxic wastes released in water as well. Heavy nitrogen-oxide emissions (about 80% of daily electricity utility industry in U.S.) Emissions of Mercury (Highly toxic)

Enormous amount of waste heat requires large amount of water for cooling. The collection of this water from various water bodies threatens aquatic life, especially by the screens designed to keep fish from entering into the power plants. Hence, fossil fuel, being perishable, limited and rapidly diminishing is an unwise way of producing electricity for household and industrial usage on national level. On the other hand, a wiser use of the natural resources like water, which come to us in abundance around the globe and covers more than 70% of earth, and wind wherever it is strong enough to drive wind-mills is so efficient at those places; and sunlight, a source of energy which promises not to extinguish till the end of the world promises us cheap, lasting and reliable electricity supply for generations.

Renewable Energy Resources: Hydro-Electric (Hydel) Power Energy:

Hydel power is the most popular and widely used energy source among the all the renewable energy resources by virtue of its reliability, feasibility, consistency, sidebenefits (including irrigational and civil water supply) and most of all, its electricity generation capacity with respect to the input required. Hydel energy is environment friendly i.e., clean of combustible by-product materials like that in fossil fuel which is hazardous for the environment. Moreover, hydel energy electricity generation is almost an instantaneous process. The starting and stopping of turbines and electricity generation thus take only a few minutes (in some cases, seconds). It is also quite cheap and most of all, the water used can be used further in irrigation and water supply to the civilians as well as the reservoir water being a spot of
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recreation for people attracting tourists or recreational souls.

Pakistan's Heavy Dependence upon Water Resources: Surface Water:

Pakistan's sustenance is heavily dependent upon the Indus River System (IRS) containing Indus, Jhelum and Chenab; and the glaciers falling into river Indus. The river Indus enters Pakistan from Gilgit-Baltistan and bends its course to south between Peshawar and Rawalpindi and in its course, is dammed on Tarbela. It ends on a delta east of Thatta. Hence, we can say that it is the longest running river in Pakistan as it passes through three provinces and is a "bread basket" for the agricultural lands of Punjab and Sindh which are heavily dependent upon Sindh's water. The heavy floods of year 2010 are partly a result of poor management of the mighty River Indus.

Proposed And Under Developed Hydel Power Projects

Two larger dams are proposed to be built on River Indus, DIAMER BHASHA (GilgitBaltistan_ approved but not yet funded) and KALABAGH DAM (Kalabagh_ yet controversial). Jhelum enters into Pakistan from the state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and meets Neelum near Kohala. At this junction point, NeelumJhelum dam is proposed to be built and is approved. The IRS provides great opportunities of improvising projects of hydro-electrical significance and waterstorage capacity.

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 Rainfall:
Annual rainfall in Indus plains and Peshawar valley average about 40 million acre feet (MAF). It covers 25 MAF of cultivable land. But the distribution and intensity of the rains are so insignificant and irregular, that rain-water cannot support the cultivation process.

Ground Water:
The alluvial plains of Pakistan are blessed with unconfined aquifers which are formed by natural precipitation, distributaries and application losses in the irrigated lands. The surface water is used up in agriculture sector mainly along with hydroelectrical power production and is further demanded by household and industrial sector significantly.

Hydel Power Potential in Pakistan

Every cloud has a silver lining. The unrelenting demand of energy in Pakistan, being a huge barrier in the progress and development, also has its solution in abundant renewable resources available in this geographically small but very ideally located country. Pakistan is a country blessed with abundant water resources and a combination of highland and lowland, elevation and depression at multiple sites in the country that provides an ideal geographic location for hydel power production opportunity if wisely and efficiently utilized.

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SUMMARY OF THE HYDEL RESOURCES IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF PAKISTAN

Name of Province Projects in Operation (MW) Public Sector ( MW) Private Sector Projects(MW) Projects under Implementation Projects with F.S Completed/ Solicited Sites (MW) Above 50 MW Below 50 MW Projects with Pre-Feasibility Study /Raw Sites (MW) Above 50 MW Below 50 MW

Total Hydel Resource (MW)

Khyber pakhtoonkhwa Punjab AJK Gilgit-Baltistan Sindh Baluchistan

3849

8524 96 1231 12493 Nil Nil

2349

Nil

77

9534 Nil 854 8047 80 Nil

356 330 61 493 49 Nil

24689 6011 7170 21723 179 1

1699 1039 116 Nil Nil

134 3984 40 Nil Nil

3720 Nil 490 Nil Nil

32 1 44 50 1

TOTAL

6703 22344

6507 4210

205 18515 1289

59773

The above table shows the available hydel power resources in Pakistan to be 59773 MW, the half of which, if utilized properly, will be more than sufficient to curb the energy demand in the country for generations to come. Only Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa possesses 24689 MW of hydel resources. If put into action they can, not only provide electrical energy to the province itself, but also to other provinces as well. Gilgit Baltistan, being a seismic area, still possesses potential of 21723 MW of hydel potential, which can be utilized to a reasonable extent provided that certain precautions and care is taken. Only a humble portion of this abundant resource, i.e., 6703 MW of potential is currently being utilized which alone is not even nearly sufficient enough to meet the daily requirements of household/domestic sector.

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Pakistan has 40,000 MW hydro power Potential

Pakistan Times Federal Bureau Report

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has a potential of 40,000 MW Hydro Power, out of which the economic Hydel Power Potential is around 20,000 MW, whereas the existing Hydel capacity in operation is 5,010 MW. According to a report of Pakistan Power Infrastructure Board (PPIB), this figure was identified by the Board after having a detailed survey conducted to prepare a data of power potential in the country. Pakistan has already planned the construction of various small to medium sized Hydel Power Projects in various parts of the country and a number of these are in progress. Hydel resources are mostly concentrated in the northern mountainous regions of the country. Existing total installed capacity in Pakistan is 17,726 MW including total Hydel 5010 MW (Ranges from 1990 MW to 5120 MW due to seasonal variations), total Thermal 12254 MW and Nuclear Power 462 MW. The Thermal Portion also includes 5813 MW from the private sector. Pakistan also has a very rich coal resource potential for Electric Power Generation estimated to be 185 billion tons all over the country including 184.6 billion tons only in the province of Sindh which could effectively be utilized for power generation and in other coal-based industries, said the report. These reserves include the discovery of huge deposits of coal, estimated around 175.5 billion tons, in the Tharparker area in the province of Sindh. Significant coal deposits suitable for Power Generation are available at Sonda and Lakhra areas in Sindh province, at Salt range Area of Punjab province and at several coal fields in the Baluchistan province as per the Geological Survey of Pakistan. It may be recalled that Pakistan has already announced Power Policy-2002 having enormous incentives for the private sector to attract investment in power sector2

http://pakistantimes.net/2003/12/19/metro2.htm

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Necessity of Utilizing These Water Resources Efficiently

Water resources in Pakistan are distinctive and limited. Due to heavy rainfall in Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan in 2010, a serious water crisis has risen. The situation calls for efficient measures in order to properly allocate the water resources available right now. But so far the undertaking of such steps by local or federal authorities is nowhere to be seen. Most of the water is wasted due to poor management. This God-gifted natural resource ought to be used wisely and justly in order to make this country a better place to live for ourselves and the future generations to come. Pakistan has been blessed with the largest irrigation system in the world irrigating over 36 million hectares of land. The water comes from the heights of Kurrakuram and Himalayas and largest glaciers on planet earth to form the Indus River System. It contains a large number of barrages, canals and water courses. The system contains three main reservoirs i.e., Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma. The water flows from barrages and headworks into canals and subsequently into branch canals, distributaries and minors. The water used for irrigation purpose cannot be re-utilized. About 50% of water is wasted due to poor management every year. Pakistan is a highly populous country and is expected to become the 5th most populated country in the world around 2030. According to some experts, Pakistan's water resources are expected to decline by 37% over the next twenty years from 1100 cubic feet to 700 cubic feet per person every year. Pakistan's Planning Commission's estimates are from canal head to outlets 25% and from outlets to farm-gate 15% every year. According to a UN report seven billion people in 60 countries will be facing water scarcity along with population growth and development problems. There are chances of a world war on water.

Water Availability Crisis in Pakistan Creating Energy Crisis along the Way

Water Stress:
Hydrologists believe that when available water per person per year falls below 1700 cubic feet, the country is facing water stress. Hydrologists also believe that number of people facing water stress will increase to 3 billion around 2025. Water scarcity may lead to competition between rural and urban areas. It takes 1000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain. So, a country would prefer to divert the water to urban areas and import its grain rather than use such large amount of water for producing grain. This will work fine only if the economy of the country remains stable, the odds of which are never so certainly in favor of the country as
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the world market situation is thoroughly a variable factor. Recent Studies Of Wetlands Indicate Rapid Water Level Decline: A project for the study of 32 wetlands of Pakistan was conducted by Global Environment Facility, WWF and Government of Pakistan headed by Richard Garner, a WWF expert. He warned that at the current rates of consumption, in next 25 years, 1 out of 3 people in Pakistan may be facing critical water shortage threatening their very survival. Garstang said that the current level of water in Quetta was dropping by a "yearly average of 3.5 meters". He said in a press conference in 2001, "Within 15 years Quetta, basically, will run dry of water given the current consumption rate." He also said that there are serious things in ecological system which are going wrong. How fast is it going wrong is difficult to predict. He concluded that there is an "absolute lack of awareness" regarding the magnitude and seriousness of the problem.

Hydel Power For Over-Coming Energy Crisis

The argument, whether hydel power is or isn't the solution to the ongoing energy crisis that Pakistan is facing right now, can be settled by looking at the bigger picture. Starting new hydel power projects is definitely going to help Pakistan considerably in long term. It will help allocate water resources and hinder the effects of floods in heavy rainfall. Once the dams are built, provide cheaper and cleaner energy. The building of dams and initiation of the working of dams may take many years and thus, in short term, we dare say that there is no apparent advantage. Nevertheless, it is the long-term strategies which are important for a country. The strategies and plans which promise to benefit and protect several generations to come are also as important as survival in the short-term. Pakistan's most abundant, cheap and readily available resource is water. Moreover, hydel power generates more energy than solar or wind energy. The evergrowing demand of energy can be met with a higher energy source. It is needless to say that Pakistan has the technology and knowledge of hydel power, also that hydel power doesn't produce residual toxic or nuclear wastes which require a lot of care and caution to be gotten rid of and mostly which escape into the atmosphere in case of combustible materials.

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Future Hydel Power Projects In Pakistan

Future Hydel Power Generation Projects with Installed Capacities and commissioning date Name of Project Installed Capacity (MW) Commissioning Date June 2010 June 2015 Postponed until consensus is reached between all provinces. June 2010 Dec 2015 Dec 2015 Dec 2020 Dec 2008 Dec 2015

Neelum Jhelum, AJK 960 Doyian, NA Kalabagh 425 2400

Kohala Jhelum, AJK Munda Dam, NWFP Suki Kinari Karrang, NWFP

740 600 652 454

Tarbela 15 16, NWFP 960 Spath Gah, NWFP 851

Basha, Gilgit-Baltistan 4500 Dasu (Indus) Pathan (Indus) Thakot (Indus) Bungi (Indus) Chor Nallah Total 2712 1172 1043 1500 1500 19569

Tentatively September, 2011

Dec 2015 Dec 2015 Dec 2015 Dec 2015 Dec 2020

Source: 2002 Power Generation Policy)

Necessity Of Building Another Dam On Indus River Rising Water Level On Tarbela And Mangla
Water level in Tarbela and Mangla has reportedly been rising to and above dead level for the past 12 months. During the year 2010 many news channels and newspapers broadcasted and published an alarming rise in the water levels.
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"Water level in Tarbela and Mangla dam is continuing to rise. Water level in Terbela

Dam has been recorded at 1395.63 feet and in Mangla Dam at 1159.20 feet. According to Meteorological Department, inflow of water at Tarbela Dam is 189,000 cusecs and outflow is 149, 800 cusecs and inflow of water in Mangla Dam is 59, 915 cusecs and outflow is 40,000 cusecs. While the amount of useable water in Tarbela Dam is235,000 feet and useable water in Mangla Dam is 245,000 feet." The Nation- June 23, 2010. ISLAMABAD: Low levels of water in the country's two main dams prevail. "The water level is 111.4 feet in Tarbela Dam and 110.6 feet in Mangla Dam from dead level, private news channel reported. According to the Meteorological Department, the drinkable water reservoir is 359,100 acre feet in Tarbela Dam and 215,000 acre feet in Mangla." The International News- Friday, December 10, 2010. The situation indicates that Tarbela and Mangla aren't sufficient enough to either provide energy or store the huge amount of water as required.

Why Not Other Rivers?

Out of three main rivers of IRS in Pakistan, Mangla Dam is already built on Jhelum and the only other possibly feasible dam Neelum-Jhelum has a storage capacity of 740 MW which is rather low. Chenab doesn't have any suitable site for building of a dam. Indus River that extends to length of Pakistan and flows from mountainous heights to the low-lands provides several suitable sites for small and large dams.

Suitable Sites On River Indus

There were a few sites identified in Upper Indus Valley upstream Tarbela but due to very narrow width of the valleys between Karakorum and Himalayas, good storage sites are very few up north. Apart from a few smaller projects, two big projects were proposed on Indus River: Kalabagh and Diamer-Bhasha Dams.

Control Food deficit:

Agriculture is the back bone of Pakistan. It has one of the fastest growing population rates in the world. By seeing recent trend, it is feared that Pakistan might also become a victim of food deficit in the near future.

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Kalabagh Dam Project:

Kalabagh dam is a proposed hydro electric dam proposed to be built on River Indus by the Government of Pakistan. The dam was controversial since its beginning former president general Pervez Musharraf 1st announced that he would build Kalabagh dam for the benefit of the country.

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Features Of Kalabagh Dam

Official name Located Proposed site Owner Type of dam Height of dam Length of dam Spill way capacity Reservoir capacity Retention level Power generation capacity Average annual energy Kalabagh dam Indus river At Kalabagh near mianwali district of the Punjab province bordering kyberpakhtunkhwa Government of Pakistan Earthfill dam 259 ft 10,991 ft 98000 ft/s 9.7 km3 (7,900,000 acre feet) Max 915 m above mean sea level Min 825 feet above mean sea level 3600 MW 11,400 GWH

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Kalabagh dam project benefits for Pakistan

Kalabagh dam would have proved very beneficial for Pakistan if it was made earlier but its better late then never some benefits of Kalabagh dam are as under

Power:
Kalabagh dam with its installed capacity of 2400 MW (ultimate 3600 MW) would add to a system a bulk of cheap hydro power in an average year 11413 million kilowatts hours of electricity would be generated at Kalabagh dam. Further as a result of a conjunctive operation an additional 336 million kHz and upto 600 mw peak power would be generated at tambala. To put these figures in perspective if Kalabagh dam was in position today there would be no load shedding Also the energy generated in Kalabagh would be equal to 20 million barrels of oil per year

Flood alleviation
Kalabagh dam would reduce the frequency and severity of flooding along Indus particularly between dam site and 300 miles down stream. It would store the water and utilize it properly Concluding the overall benefits of Kalabagh dam is above 25 billion per annum thus the investment would be repaid in a period of 9-10 years approximately

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Consequences of not building Kalabagh dam:

1. National food security would be jeopardized. thus importing food items would be another burden for Pakistan 2. Loss of the storage capacity of the online reservoir due to sedimentation thus result in shortage of committed irrigation supplies .Causing serious drop of existing agriculture production 3. If Kalabagh dam is not made there is a possibility of dispute arises between Sindh and Punjab due to water shortage 4. Imports of thermal energy would be decreased 5. The cost of production has increased due expensive power 6. Creating employment for 30,000 persons during construction.

Controversies regarding Kalabagh dam Apprehensions of Kyberpakhtunkhwa:

1. It is feared that flooding of Peshawar valley near Noshara town would be aggravated 2. Drainages of surrounding area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be adversely affected by the reservoir thus causing water logging and salinity 3. Fertile cultivable land would be submerged 4. Large number of people would be displaced

Apprehensions of Sindh:
1. 2. 3. 4. The anxiety that the project would convert Sindh into a desert Cultivation of sailaba would be adversely affected Mangrove forest would be in danger Fish production and drinking water supply below Kotri would be adversely affected

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Diamer-Bhasha Dam:
It has also proposed by former president of Pakistan general Pervez Musharraf.

Features of Bhasha dam

Official name Located Proposed site owner Type of dam Height of dam Construction would be started Power capacity Average power generation Reservoir level Diamer bhasha dam Indus river 315 upstream of Tarbela dam,165 downstream of northern areas Gilgit , 40 km downstream of chillas Government of Pakistan Roller compacted Concrete 272 m Tentatively September 2011 4500 mw 16500 gwh/yr 1160 m

Bhasha or Kalabagh: The More Feasible Project: Geographical Locations: Comparison:

KALABAGH DAM:

Kalabagh dam is proposed to be built in Kalabagh, in district Mianwali of Punjab. The site proposed for the alleged dam is the only site that can store monsoon water. Agriculture is the backbone of our countrys economy and Kalabagh dam will be able to distribute sufficient 23

amount of water in the agricultural lands of Punjab and Sindh, boosting the agricultural sector considerably as well as providing electricity to the country.

Bhasha Dam:
This dam is supposed to be built high up in the mountainous region of Himalayas. The dam is also to be built with concrete, the material that is not available in that area. The transport facility in that area is, due to the height and also the dangerous terrains of that region is nearly impossible to obtain if such a tremendous amount of concrete is supposed to be transported all the way from Punjab to the heights of Gilgit-Baltistan. It would both be expensive and a long arduous task. The area is also a highly seismic one i.e. being on top of the Central Asian Fault Line. If the dam breaks due to the seismic activities of that region, all the area down to Sukkar district would be completely submerged i.e. destroyed by the water. The loss of lives would be unimaginable.

Time And Capital Required For Construction Bhasha Dam:

Bhasha dam will take about 12-15 years at the least and would cost $14 billion. Moreover, for the construction material to be transported to the site, Karakorum will have to be widened. That task would also take 5-6 years.

Kalabagh Dam:
The construction of this dam would take 5-6 years and the capital required would be around $5 billion, which is comparatively much lesser.

Conclusion:
Kalabagh Dam is more feasible because of its low cost, quicker return, lesser geographical hazards. The implementation of this project can be very fruitful for Pakistan, especially in the persisting energy crisis which requires quicker actions to be taken. Apart from the hydel power, other renewable sources can also be utilized to aid in the fight against the ongoing energy shortage crisis. For instance, wind power, solar and nuclear energy are the sectors of power generation which can be explored to fulfill long-term energy requirements along with hydel power.

Wind power: In the coast-lines of

Gawadar, the ample wind can provide a lot of potential for energy production to fulfill the requirements of a less populated northern part of Baluchistan and adjoining areas of Sindh as well.

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Solar Energy: Aside from the fact that

sufficient funding for exploring the benefits of solar energy are not yet available, but it is also a very useful source of energy that promises never to diminish or extinguish. If it is delved into, it would provide a lot of energy for the nation. Pakistan is a country having an ideal sunny climate for solar energy projects.

Nuclear Energy: A lot of research is

required in this field and Pakistan, due to the international political restrains, cannot carry out much research on this technology as yet.

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