GM Update October 2008 Ronan Hughes

GM Update Approval Timeline Maize

Herculex Approval Timeline 33 Months . (Approved by Default ) GA 21 Approval Timeline 31 Months. (Approved by default ) MIR604 Agrisure ..Already clocked up 43 months Mon 88017 Yield Guard Already clocked up 34 months

Commissioner Fisher Boel politicians are not taking their responsibilities seriously on the GMO issue.
2

GM Update MON89788 RR2 (Monsanto)

Submitted EFSA completeness check EFSA Opinion Approval likely ????? Oct 2006 Jun 2007 Jul 2008 ( 8 months) (21 months)

Jan/Feb/Mar 2009 (27/28/29 months ????)

Approval Timeline ?? Months Favorable EFSA opinion on RR2 received Jul 2008 RR2 was presented to the Standing Committee on 29th Sep 08 NO QMV . Possibly goes to Council within 90 days . Do not expect a majority it will go to the Commission to be forced through, and could be approved in Jan/Feb/Mar 2009
3

Crop Timetables Soybeans. Some one always Harvesting or Drilling

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 2010 US Planted Harvested

Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 2010 Argentina Brazil Planted Planted Harvested Harvested

Irelands Soy Imports

2004
Total NGFI imports Total Soy Imports % of total 1,886 443 23%

2005
1,807 500 28%

2006
2,049 505 25%

2007
1,916 616 32%

DG Agri Report on The Feed Chain

DG AGRI Report
Economic impact of Unapproved GMOs on EU Feed Imports and Livestock Production Risk of asynchronous authorisations will become more frequent and affect a greater range of crops EU applies a zero-tolerance policy for non-approved GMOs in food and feed imports Presence of non-approved GMOs already affected imports of CBPs Limited EU impact, more pronounced in some Member States eg Ireland, United Kingdom, Spain, Portugal and Holland If an interruption in the import of soybeans and soybean meal occurs only 10% - 20% of imports could be replaced by substitutes
7

DG AGRI Report
EU livestock production accounts for c40% of the total value of agricultural production a loss in competitiveness would have important implications for:
agricultural incomes and employment upstream and downstream industries, and result in significant increases in meat prices for the consumer

As a result of import interruptions

animal production would expand in the overseas countries EU would increase its import of meat from overseas countries these animals would have been fed with GM soybeans

Meat from animals fed with GM feed is not subject to GMO labelling in the EU
8

DG AGRI Report results of modelling

Impact on EU oilmeals balance (deviation from the baseline, %) OILMEALS Production Import Exports Total Stocks Consumption Feed expenditure* MEDIUM 2009 -5.0% -7.5% 0.0% -12.6% -6.1% 22.8% 2010 -4.9% -7.3% 0.0% -1.5% -6.6% 22.8% WORST CASE 2009 -18.0% -76.2% 0.0% -68.5% -48.2% 2068.2% 2010 -17.6% -74.1% 0.0% 0.5% -51.1% 682.9%

* Total feed expenditure (incl. cereals and oilseeds)

DG AGRI Report results of modelling

Impact on EU pigmeat sector (deviation from the baseline, %) PORK MEDIUM WORST CASE 2009 2010 2009 2010 Net Production -0.9% -1.8% -29.3% -34.7% Import 28.6% 74.3% 637.0% 5461.0% Exports -0.3% -1.1% -86.0% -85.3% Consumption -0.9% -1.6% -23.9% -17.4% Impact on EU poultry sector (deviation from the baseline, %) POULTRY MEDIUM WORST CASE 2009 2010 2009 2010 Net Production -1.7% -2.6% -29.2% -43.9% Import 6.6% 10.6% 92.5% 158.3% Exports -2.9% -5.9% -100.0% -100.0% Consumption -1.0% -1.5% -15.7% -26.3% Impact on EU beef meat sector (deviation from the baseline, %) BEEF MEDIUM WORST CASE 2009 2010 2009 2010 Net Production 0.0% 0.0% -1.1% -2.1% Import 12.7% 14.0% 397.4% 295.8% Exports -41.2% -95.1% -100.0% -100.0% Consumption 1.2% 1.5% 30.2% 23.1%

10

World Soybean Production (238m tonnes)

Canada 3 1% Paraguay 7 3% Argentina 51 21% China 16 India 7% 9 4% Others 9 4%

USA 80 34%

Brazil 63 26%
Source : USDA

11

EU Soy Imports 38m tonnes

Argentina, 16, 42%

USA, 3, 8%

Brazil, 19, 50%

12

Soy Production M Tonnes Top 3

90 80 70 m tonnes 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 USA Brazil
Total Prodn GM Non GM

80 74 63 51 44 50

19 6 1 Argentina

13

Soy Production GM % v Non Gm % .

120%

% split GM v Non GM

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

92% 70%

98%

30% 8% 2% Brazil
GM Non GM

USA

Argentina

14

The Food Chain this Autumn: Which market will they Disturb ?
The EU imports 14.85 of Soya bean for crushing for food chain . Some switching is possible to OSR and Sunflower. Food sector can afford to compete strongly with the feed chain into South America to secure supplies. What happens if the extra demand coincides with more strikes?

15

Programme for Government 2007 - 2012

Agriculture, Food and Forestry Ensuring Bio-security

We will seek to negotiate the establishment of an AllAllIreland GMGM-Free Zone

16

What has the Minister said?

In my view the government objective to seek to negotiate an island wide GM free zone is not about banning imported GM feed, it is about not growing GM crops and not proliferating GM pollen, GM seed dispersal and super weeds in the Irish countryside.
Minister of State, Trevor Sargent TD, 28th September 2007

17

What has the Minister said?

I have consistently said that the commitment in the programme for Government is not about banning imported feed but rather about seeking to negotiate the establishment of an all Ireland GM-free zone so that we can avoid the release of live GMO's into the Irish environment
Minister of State, Trevor Sargent TD, 20th February 2008

18

Summary :
Timelines not improving : unpredictability and risk increasing for the industry. The twin problem of low level presence and slow approvals has cut off supplies of Canadian OSR and US Maize by products . Soyabean ( food) and Soymeal is next . Ireland needs to support the Commission and to vote in a positive manner on these GMO dossiers.

19