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El Nio is a periodic change in the currents of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every five to eight years and brings unusually warm water to the coast of northern South America. It often leads to severe climate disruption to countries in and beside the Pacific. El Nino is the most disastrous climatic events, a shattering of normal weather patterns that inflicted drought, flood, and fire on every continent except Antarctica and, probably, Europe. The cause was a periodic heating of the equatorial Pacific Ocean known as El Nio, The Child, an allusion in Spanish to the Christ child, because South Americans often feel its warm ocean current about Christmastime. This Nio fell hardest on the eastern half of Australia.
Forecasts
Forecasts are also available for seasonal hurricane activity. Seasonal forecasts predict factors such as the overall number of storms. Led by the efforts of atmospheric scientist William Gray and his team at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, scientists are able to make such predictions up to a year in advance using complex statistical models. These models are based on such information as the strong connection between hurricane activity and atmospheric factors such as El Nio (the warming of the Pacific Ocean, typically occurring every three to seven years). Seasonal forecasting of hurricane activity cannot tell scientists where or when a particular storm will strike, but it can project overall features of a hurricane season, providing useful information to officials in such fields as emergency management and insurance.
throughout the world. The situation was detected early in 1987 and was carefully monitored by the Climate Analysis Center of the National Weather Service. In the United States the effects were most apparent in the less-than-normal number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic. The effects were also noticeable in the Pacific. Sea birds on tropical islands were decimated when weaker-than-normal winds reduced upwelling and associated fish production along the equator. Conditions that were drier than normal prevailed throughout the southwest Pacific. Shifts in the planetary winds also disrupted the monsoons in India. The lack of rain caused serious food shortages, and the government had to import rice to prevent starvation. In earlier years, a failure of the monsoon would have resulted in famine and the deaths of thousands. Now, however, El Nios can be predicted six to nine months before they occur, giving governments time to plan so they can alleviate the hardships El Nios cause.