Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
FAO raises world cereal supply forecast for 2013/14
Global cereal production is set to rise 7.2 percent to 2.479 billion tonnes in 2013/14, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday, hiking its estimate from a previous forecast of 2.460 billion tonnes made in June. World wheat output is seen at 704 million tonnes, up 6.8 percent from the previous year, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said. It said crop prospects were favourable in Europe and it expected a rebound in output from Black Sea producers which were hit by drought last year. Coarse grains production is forecast at 1.275 billion tonnes, up 9.7 percent from 2012/13, thanks to increased output in countries including Argentina, Brazil and the United States. FAO said it expected world cereal stocks at end of seasons in 2014 to reach about 567.5 million tonnes, up 11.5 percent from their opening level. (Source: Reuters)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 11, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19676 5935 59.83 104.91 1280.1

1.98 2.04 -0.10 -1.51 2.62

1.37 1.68 -0.40 3.63 2.24

2.78 2.53 2.56 9.99 -7.04

12.50 11.85 7.75 22.26 -18.73

.Source: Reuters

USDA shows ultra-low US corn, soybean stocks giving way to huge harvest
The U.s. Department of Agriculture underlined the split nature of the U.S. corn and soybean market on Thursday, as razor-thin old-crop supplies following the 2012 drought were expected to soon give way to an abundant harvest and rising stockpiles. For wheat, new-crop U.S. stocks are expected to be the lowest since 2007/08, a bullish surprise, pushed down in part by sharply higher import demand from China for livestock feeding.In its monthly supply and demand report, the Agriculture Department projected record high U.S. corn and soybean production in 2013/14, reversing three years of shrinking output and sky-high prices. Projected 2013/14 U.S. corn carryout, at 1.959 billion bushels, was above analysts' average forecast and would be the highest since 2005/06, but was well below some of the more bearish projections. (Source: Reuters)

Thai Sugar Harvest Seen at Record Adding to Global Surplus

Sugar production in Thailand, the worlds largest exporter after Brazil, may climb by 10 percent to a record in the season from November as yields increase, according to Thai Sugar Millers Corp. Output will expand to 11 million metric tons, crushed from the biggest-ever cane harvest of 105 million tons. Increased supplies will add to a global surplus that pushed futures to a three-year low helping to curb global food costs. A weakening Brazilian real has boosted speculation that the biggest grower will raise exports, while a Bloomberg survey this week showed that the Indian crop will top demand after the best start to the monsoon in more than a decade. (Source: Bloomberg)

Rice stocks to be cleared by July 31

The Punjab government has fixed July 31 as the deadline for the delivery of balance stock of rice to the central pool. Stating this year, food and civil supply secretary DS Grewal said the state had fixed a target of 85 lakh tonnes of rice for the central pool. About 80 lakh tonnes (94%) have already been moved to the central pool. (Source: Hindustan Times)

USDA Says Winter Wheat Crop Forecast Down 15 Percent

The U.S. Department of Agriculture says in its crop reduction report that the forecast, based on July 1 conditions, stands at 25.4 million bushels. Average yield is forecast at 39 bushels per acre. This up six bushels from last month but down 11 bushels from last year. Acreage to be harvested for grain is estimated at 650,000 acres, down 28 percent from the June 1 forecast and down 46 percent from last year. Other spring wheat production is forecast at 55.4 million bushels, up 32 percent from last year. (Source: www.drgnews.com)

Monsoon to revive after lull helps final planting

India's monsoon may pick up next week in the main crop-growing areas of north and central parts after last week's slow down, giving impetus to the last leg of planting for summer crops such as oilseeds, pulses and cotton. Monsoon rains turned below average last week for the first time in the season that stormed in from June 1, falling 5 percent short, the latest figures from the weather office on Thursday showed. "Rains are expected to be heavy in north and central India during the latter half of the next week," said a senior official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) who did not wish to be named. (Source: Reuters)

Mills seek 2k cr from UP govt to pay cane farmers

Indicating that it was not in a position to pay the arrears due towards sugarcane farmers, the UP Sugar Mills Association (UPSMA ) has sought a soft loan of Rs 2,000 crore from the UP government. The move comes in the back drop of the high court whip on the UP government directing it to clear the dues to the tune of around Rs 4,000 crore by July end. UPSMA members cautioned that the industry was in dire need of funding, in the absence of which it will be forced to close down mills. Mill owners demanded a soft loan of around Rs 25 per quintal from the state government besides rationalisation of the pricing system wherein cane price is suggested to be linked to sugar prices. (Source: Times of India)

Rains, incomes & food: Good monsoon this year is bad news for India
The monsoon made a dream start this year. Bountiful rainfall in June has prepared the ground for bumper harvest and lower food inflation. But don't celebrate. Look beyond the immediate future and good monsoon this year may not really be good news. It has merely delayed an agricultural crisis, which our complacent policymakers perhaps need to jolt them into action. With food demand rising in step with the growing population and incomes, India increasingly needs near-perfect monsoons to feed its people. With the food security Ordinance staring, perhaps glaring, at India's agricultural economics, the risks are even higher. The impending crisis has been brewing for a few years. A decade ago, India's demand-supply situation could easily withstand a drought. In 2002, when the monsoon was 19% in deficit, inflation remained at a manageable single-digit level and quickly returned to normal. (Source: Economic Times)

Oilseed Crops in India Seen Climbing to Cut Reliance on Imports

Oilseed output in India, the worlds second-biggest cooking oils importer, may increase this year as the best start to monsoon in more than a decade spurs sowing of soybeans and peanuts, according to a government official. Production will increase from 30.72 million metric tons in the year ended June 30, Agriculture Commisioner J.S. Sandhu said. Rising production may boost exports of oilseed meals and trim imports of palm and soybean oils to meet a supply gap. India is the worlds biggest cooking oil consumer after China and meets more than half of its demand through imports. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures remained under downside pressure on account of comfortable supplies and higher sowing of kharif pulses. However, Bargain buying at lower levels coupled with good demand led prices to recover towards the closing session. Spot prices settled 0.87% lower while August futures settled 0.23% lower on Thursday. The Food Ministry is in favor to impose duty on imports by 7.5% to curb imports. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of the summer kharif pulses has been reported at 18.37 lakh hectares as on July 5, 2013 compared to 3.99 lakh ha last year. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 11, 2013 % change Last 3131 3044 Prev day -0.87 -0.98 WoW 1.33 0.10 MoM -3.65 -4.85
Source: Reuters

YoY -32.66 -33.08

Spread Matrix
Closing 3131.25 3044 3100 3162 19-Jul-13 -87.25 0 -

as on July 11, 2013 20-Aug-13 -31.25 56 0 20-Sep-13 30.75 118 62 0 as on July 10, 2013 Stocks as on 9th July 82053 60441 11582 154076 Qty in Process 230 553 548 1331

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 10th July 82144 60953 11582 154679 Qty in Process 170 51 548 769

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of June 2013 remained steady at 0.01 lakh metric tons. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may trade on a mixed note today on higher supplies and smooth sowing progress may offset lower level demand by the stockiest. Prices in the near term may remain range bound as supplies are sufficient to cater the local demand.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 12, 2013 Resistance 3117-3136

3064-3080

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean October futures settled 1.18% higher on Thursday on account of strong demand for the bean from millers on the back of meal export demand. Also, tight supplies of the bean supported the prices. However, a stronger Rupee coupled with higher area under soybean cultivation compared to last year pressurized prices towards the end. The spot settled 0.47% higher while the Futures settled 1.18% higher. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's oil meal exports rose to 348,946 tonnes in June from 311,089 tonnes a year earlier. Soy meal exports rose to 213,564 tonnes in June, the third month of the 2013/14 fiscal year, from 180,987 tonnes a year ago. Area under Oilseed cultivation stood at 110.27 lakh ha as on 5th July 2013 against 26.52 lakh hectares during the same period last year. In th Maharashtra, soybean was sown in 23.68 lakh ha as on 4 July as against 20.07 lakh ha sown during the same period last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets Soybean futures settled slightly higher as USDA report remained mostly unchanged and while concerns over expectations of hotter and dried weather in the US Midwest may affect the crop. USDA has released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and has kept the yield unchanged at 44.5 bushel per acre. US Soybean production is projected at 3.42 billion bushels, up 30 million due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 76.9 million acres in the June 28 Acreage report, is 0.7 million above the June projection. The 2013/14 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 285.9 million tons, up 0.6 million.

Market Highlights

as on July 11, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.47 3.05 1.44 0.60 0.21 0.03 4.08 1.12 1.05 1.31

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3850 3813 1601 3537 3472

MoM -1.76 0.17 3.93 1.05 -0.43

YoY -11.4 -13.8 -2.48 -15.8 -17.6

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3850 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3812.5 3212.5 3216.5 0 -600 0 19-Jul-13 -37.5 18-Oct-13 -637.5

as on July 11, 2013 20-Nov-13 -633.5 -596 4 0 as on July 11, 2013 20-Aug-13 -30.75 34 0 20-Sep-13 13.25 78 44 0 as on July 10, 2013 Qty in Process 274 0 0 274 as on July 10, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 61 0 713 40 0 814 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3536.75 3472 3506 3550 19-Jul-13 -64.75 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 10th July 16841 921 331 18093 Stocks as on 10th July 3040 4549 20688 634 63597 5193 1811 99512 Qty in Process 30 0 0 30 Qty in Process 0 0 81 0 452 70 119 722 Stocks as on 9th July 16597 921 331 17849 Stocks as on 9th July 3040 4549 20688 634 63165 5193 1811 99080

Outlook
Soybean is expected to recover from lower levels due to tight supplies coupled with good demand from the millers on the back of strong soy meal export demand. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may cap sharp gains in the prices. Traders may also adopt a wait and watch policy ahead of the USDA report to be released today.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed August futures traded higher tracking positive oilseeds. However, higher supplies in the domestic markets coupled with an increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds pressurized prices at higher levels and settled 0.0.28% lower on Wednesday. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Positive oilseeds, declining arrivals at lower prices and good demand are expected to support prices. However, overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 12, 2013 Support 3140-3172 3475-3490 Resistance 3235-3265 3520-3536

Source: Telequote

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil opened higher due to good demand ahead of the festive season. However, an appreciation in the Rupee pressurized prices and settled 0.25% lower on Thursday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy oil prices gained last week on account of sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee coupled with firm international palm oil futures. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 696.20 697.40 46.49 2390 506.50 Prev day 0.01 0.01 -1.04 0.00 -0.45

as on July 11, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 1.16 1.83 -1.55 1.06 0.28

MoM -2.25 -1.88 -3.37 -1.24 1.95

YoY -10.55 -11.24 -13.22 -20.73 -10.15

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 696.2 697.4 683.95 671.05 19-Jul-13 1.2 0 20-Aug-13 -12.25 -13.45 0 -

as on July 11, 2013 20-Sep-13 -25.15 -26.35 -12.9 0 as on July 11, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may continue to trade higher extending yesterdays gains on the back of festive demand. However, prices will also track the Rupee movement in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 506.5 508.7 506.4 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 2.2 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO declined yesterday as a decline in the imports on the back of an overall weakness in the Rupee pressurized prices. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-10 declined 15.9% at 352,375 tn as against 419,035 tn during June 1-10. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

30-Sept-13 -0.1 -2.3 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade higher today due to on expectations that government may increase import tax on refined edible oils. However, Rupee appreciation may cap gains and keep prices under check.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 12, 2013 Support 676-680 500-503 Resistance 687-691 510-513
bSource: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures resumed its upward movement yesterday supported by overseas demand and settled 0.99% higher. However, higher than expected arrivals as well as good rains in the main jeera growing regions capped the upside and pressurized prices in the spot. The spot settled 0.24% lower on Thursday. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 12178 tn of jeera in May. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam and USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1 percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in Singapore at $2,325 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13748 13558 5582 5688 Prev day -0.24 0.78 -0.57 -1.01

as on July 11, 2013 % Change WoW 0.72 3.10 -2.10 -1.86 MoM 2.08 4.63 2.46 5.88 YoY -11 -13 26.51 18.85

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13747.6 13557.5 13785 14055 19-Jul-13 -190.1 0 20-Aug-13 37.4 227.5 0 -

as on July 11, 2013 20-Sep-13 307.4 497.5 270 0 as on July 11, 2013 19-Jul-13 105.7 0 20-Aug-13 207.7 102 0 20-Sep-13 279.7 174 72 0 as on July 10, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 9th July Process 1266 7186 8452 6683 NCDEX August contract 102 27 129 548

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 6,000 bags on Thursday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5582.3 5688 5790 5862

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera is expected to continue to trade higher extending yesterdays gains on account of overseas demand. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 10th July 1266 7144 8410 6831 Qty in Process 155 27 182 546

Turmeric
Turmeric futures continued to remain under downside pressure tracking the sowing progress. Lower than expected local demand has also kept prices under check. However, good overseas demand has limited sharp downside in the prices. The spot as well as the August Futures settled 0.57% and 0.79% lower on Thursday

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals Nizamabad and Erode mandi were reported at 5,000 bags and 5,000 bags respectively on Thursday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.26 lakh ha as on 10 July, 2013 as against 0.23 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.26 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note with a negative note. Higher sowing coupled with good monsoon progress may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check. However, good overseas as well as demand from North India may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 12, 2013

Support 13500-13630 5590-5690 Resistance 13870-14000 5876-5964

Source: Telequote

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures traded on a flat note in the intraday. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka pressurized prices. Weak demand from the bulk consumers and sufficient supplies also pressurized prices. However, prices recovered from lower levels as the government notified its decision to increase the import duty on sugar to 15% from 10%. The spot settled 0.29% higher while the August Futures settled unchanged. Demand from the bulk consumers such as Ice cream and beverage manufacturers generally decline during the monsoon as rainfall brings down temperature. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2964 `/qtl 478.8 $/tonne 357.78 $/tonne -0.92 -1.14 -0.27 Last 3066

as on July 11, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.29 0.11 -1.40 -3.53 -1.95 MoM -0.42 -4.23 0.78 -0.68 YoY -4.70 -5.84 -27.22 -29.17

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3065.85 2964 3040 3077 19-Jul-13 -101.85 0 20-Aug-13 -25.85 76 0 -

as on July 11, 2013 20-Sep-13 11.15 113 37 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 10th July 2548 7797 1022 1228 12595 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on July 10, 2013 Stocks as on 9th July 2548 7797 1022 1228 12595 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar futures declined by 1.14% and 0.92% respectively on Thursday as Rabobank predicted a fourth year of sugar surplus. Prices have also declined due to abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar may trade with a negative bias today on expectations of improvement in the output. However, an increase in import duty and reports of fresh export deals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 12, 2013 Support 3021-3030 Resistance 3049-3060

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Cotton as well as NCDEX Kapas Futures traded on a flat note yesterday and settled 0.2% lower and 0.3% higher respectively. An overall weakness in the Indian rupee has supported cotton prices over the last few days. However, trend in Kapas remains weak amid good monsoon and higher sowing so far in the country. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk th bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at client level wef 5 July 2013. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1043.5 19990 85.18 93.95

as on July 11, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.29 -1.93 -0.20 1.11 -2.43 0.94 0.70 1.02 MoM YoY -1.93 #N/A 4.71 15.62 -5.42 18.70 0.91 13.40
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19990 20880 20370 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 11, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 890 0 380 -510 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 81.73 lakh ha as against 46.61 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Maharashtra from 25.33 lakh ha last year to 26.98 lakh ha this year. In AP, 10.9 lh was sown as against 9 lakh ha last year.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Stocks as on 10th July 10300 5900 117000 23300 900 100 157410

as on July 10, 2013 Stocks as on 9th July 12300 5900 117000 23300 900 100 159500

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton declined sharply and settled 2.43% lower on Thursday after the USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. Prices had gained earlier this week amidst host of factors like dry weather worries, talk of renewed Chinese buying, and a steep decline in the dollar. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. There are expectations that Brazil may import around 2 lakh tonnes of cotton by the end of the year due to demand from the textile industry.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Kapas is expected to decline due to weak international prices as well as good domestic planting. However, demand from the yarn and textile industry coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 12, 2013 Support 1032-1038 19820-19900 Resistance 1050-1055 20040-20120
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Friday| July 12, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.55% and 0.83% respectively on Thursday. Prices have been on a declining trend on reports of improved rains, higher sowing and comfortable supplies. Since the resumption of Guar seed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 6990 `/qtl 19782 `/qtl 20060 `/qtl 0.20 0.82 1.45 Last Prev day 6972 1.04

as on July 11, 2013 % change WoW -3.84 -2.37 -3.45 -1.57 MoM 4.20 7.87 2.33 1.72 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 10th July has been 19% above the LPA. For the first time this year, monsoon hit almost every part of Rajasthan th on 8 July. Western Rajasthan, which remained dry till now, also received mild to moderate showers. (Source: Times of India). Light to moderate rain occurred at many places in Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Alwar, Karauli, Bhilwara and other districts. Likewise mild showers were witnessed in the western districts including Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Churu and Bikaner. Bikaner witnessed a maximum rain as it recorded a rain of 90 mm. The Met office in its forecast said that southwest monsoon will gain momentum in the next two days. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 3.4 lakh hectares compared with 46000 hectares sown last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 6971.9 6990 5520 5410 19-Jul-13 18.1 0 20-Aug-13 -1451.9 -1470 0 -

as on July 11, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1561.9 -1580 -110 0 as on July 11, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3961.6 -4240 0 20-Sep-13 -4191.6 -4470 -230 0 as on July 10, 2013 Stocks as on 9 July 59 81
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 19781.6 20060 15820 15590 19-Jul-13 278.4 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 10th July 59 121 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices are expected to decline in the coming days on expectations that monsoon will gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan, Higher sowing and thereby higher output may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 12, 2013 Support 5310-5400 5300-5390 15300-15550 15310-15560 Resistance 5600-5700 5590-5690 16000-16250 16010-16260
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com